The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2120 GMT: Back to our lead story today....

Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has picked up on the Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, "Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth".

We are still trying to get to the bottom of whether the fatwa was genuine but has been pulled back from prominence, whether it was released prematurely, or whether it is the outcome of a far-from-ordinary rift within the establishment (to the point of being "disinformation").

We will have a fresh analysis in the morning. Snapshot? Whether the fatwa is genuine or now suspect, the episode does not bode well for Ayatollah Khamenei.

NEW Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
NEW Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei “I am the Rule of the Prophet”

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Akbar Karami, a noted religious scholar, has been released on bail.

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, has had his first prison visit in more than three months. Ali Tavakoli, Majid's brother, said that he was allowed to see his brother for 10 minutes from behind a booth.

Ali Tavakoli said Majid's physical appearance was better than before and that he was in excellent spirits.

Majid Tavakoli is serving an 8 1/2-year sentence.

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has warned about rising prices before Ramadan in August and said the Bazaar must control those prices without reliance on more imports.

Kavakebian also said that the sale of 18% of the auto company Saipa --- officially going to employees, unofficially rumoured to a firm associated with the Revolutionary Guard --- will suffer the same fate as the privatisation of Iran Telecom.

1440 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Document. Arshama3's Blog has re-posted and offered a quick assessment of the leaked document setting out Islamic Revolution Guards Corps procedures for monitoring the Iranian opposition.

1435 GMT: The Clerical Front. Four senior clerics, asked about "teacher-centred lectures", have responded by rejecting the concept and declaring that the seminary must remain independent.

1430 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Hamshahri alleges that Iran is exporting cheap power to the Herat area in western Afghanistan while the domestic industry and facilities are damaged. The newspaper claims Afghans have made a profit of $2 million while Iran has lost that amount.

1415 GMT: Economic Non-Data. Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, has again declined to publish the country's rate of growth.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Vismeh has been released from detention.

1355 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz writes that more associates of the Fatemi Street insurance fraud have been summoned to court.

1345 GMT: After the Bombings. MP Zohreh Elahyian, a member of the National Security Council, has said that more control of foreign residents is planned. She blamed problems in border regions on Mossad and CIA "with their dollars".

Elahyian said, "We have full control in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, but this incident proves the long-term planning of the enemy."

1314 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Trade and shipping source say the owner of a gasoline tanker, believed to be the Libyan-flagged Lia, has refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey.

1310 GMT: Parliament v. President. Is it reconcilation time? There has been a meeting of Government and Majlis representatives after the 20-day vacation of Parliament, and the Government is reportedly sending the legal decisions on its budget and legislation to the Majlis next week.

1305 GMT: Another Bust-Up in the Establishment. Aftab News publishes what appears to be a dramatic story of more tensions between the Government and "hardliners". The President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai reportedly claims that Ahmadinejad said Rahim-Mashi would be targeted as a "kafaar" (infidel) within a year. In particular, there would be problems with Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Kayhan. Rahim-Mashai is quoted, "To Shariatmadari, I'm no Muslim but a spy, monafegh (heretic), and member of the violet coup."

1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa. We find ourselves caught up in an increasingly murky story over the appearance of the Supreme Leader's fatwa on Tuesday. It is not appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's "official" sites. It is still up on Iranian Labor News Agency but not on Iran Students News Agency.

An EA correspondent, noting a similar case recently over another purported Khamenei fatwaagainst Motorola's mobile phones and other products because of the company's business with Israel, writes, "Something is fishy about these supposed fatwas....I am not really sure who is running these fatwas and why."

Meanwhile, sociologist Majid Mohammadi assesses the present fatwa and declares that it is a "gravestone on the rule of justice".

1240 GMT: The Guardians. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has been re-elected as head of the Guardian Council.

1105 GMT: Today's "Western Approach" Story. Now it's the British who are supposedly begging for talks. From Mehr News: "Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has twice rebuffed the British ambassador’s request for a meeting. On June 27, the British ambassador to Iran sent a letter to Khatami asking if a meeting could be scheduled, but Khatami did not reply to the letter. Later, the British Embassy sent a letter to him via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the cleric responded this time but said he did not want to meet the British ambassador."

Mehr does not offer the possible topics for this meeting, and it is unclear why the British would seek out Khatami, who has no official position in Iran's political hierarchy.

1048 GMT: At the Movies. From CNN:

A government-linked film studio in Iran plans to make a movie about the Iranian nuclear scientist who Iranian officials say was kidnapped by U.S. agents, state media reported Tuesday.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Sima Film production company has hired a group of film school graduates to write a script about Shahram Amiri. The head of the production company didn't say when the film would be ready.

1045 GMT: Travel Dip. Kalemeh reports that tourism to Iran has dropped 60%.

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. The Supreme Leader has repeated that the intelligence services of the US, Britain, and Israel are to blame for last week's suicide bombings in southeastern Iran: "One of the main goals of the enemies behind the terrorist attack in Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan was to create division and religious discord."

Ali Larijani, at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, declared that the US lacks the courage to strike Tehran: "Iran is ready for any possible incidents and is well aware of the ongoing developments in the region. If the US makes such a mistake, it will pay dearly."

1000 GMT: Mousavi Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, meeting professors in the Islamic Association of Teachers, has spoken about the Green media and the need to counter the propaganda of Iranian state outlets.

0955 GMT: The Khamenei Fatwa. An English translation of the Rah-e-Sabz article on the Supreme Leader's declaration has been posted: "For the first time, and openly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, in response to a religious letter, has placed himself officially on the saintly level of ‘all-qualified priest’, ‘deputy Imam at the time of the absence [of the 12th Imam]’, ‘the ruling branch of the Imams’, and ‘true all-time deputy to the Prophet’. He pointed out there shall be an absolute obedience to his governmental orders to reveal ‘full commitment to the Supreme Leader’."

0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch write in The Washington Post, "New Sanctions Crimp Iran's Shipping Business as Insurers Withhold Coverage".

Beyond noting the recent announcement by Lloyd's of London that it is halting coverage of gasoline imports to Iran, Erdbrink and Lynch quote Mohammad Ronaghi, the deputy manager of Iran's Sea Pars, "Iranian-flagged ships are facing problems all over the world as they currently have no insurance coverage because of the new sanctions. Basically, most ports will refuse them entry if they are not covered for possible damages."

The journalists also note the specific difficulties of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines while carrying this reassurance from its managing director, Mohammad Hussein Dajmar, "These sanctions have not affected us much. The world has many ports. We will sail to those nations that want to do business with us."

0900 GMT: The Push Against Ahmadinejad. The battle within the Iranian establishment is now getting some attention: Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has posted a lengthy overview, "Iranian Conservatives Unite In Bid To Undermine Ahmadinejad".

(A bit of illuminating background to the story. I spoke for about 30 minutes with Tait as he was researching the article. We initially discussed EA's "exclusive" on the discussions between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei over a move against the President.

Tait does not refer directly to the Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei talks --- it is difficult to do so without named sources --- but writes instead, with a link back to our article:

One report has even suggested that conservatives have met to plot a way of impeaching Ahmadinejad and remove him from office, although seasoned observers caution that such an outcome is unthinkable without Khamenei's approval -- which is thought unlikely.

As an unseasoned observer, I also told Tait that the discussions, even amongst high-ranking conservatives, had to win over the Supreme Leader: that is a key reason why Larijani and Co. were hoping to bring in senior clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani.)

0700 GMT: We've posted a quick follow-up note on the US-based media's insistence on hyping the possibility/probability of Israeli military action against Iran as fact rather than speculation.

0555 GMT: Let's start the morning with a bit of perspective.

Tuesday's big story was not the supposed US approach to Tehran for discussions --- which was at most a request by Senator John Kerry to come to Iran and which may or may not have been true and may or may not have been whipped up by Iranian state media.

Tuesday's big story was not a possible Israeli military strike against Iran, which for now exists more on the keyboards of feverish "analysts" who --- from hysteria, speculation, ingenuity, or simple desire for such a strike --- than in any plans in West Jerusalem and Washington.

Tuesday's big story was not Iran's five-point plan for Afghanistan, unfurled at the Kabul Summit by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as an attempted sign of Tehran's influence in Central Asia and a counter to Western attention to sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

Tuesday's big story was the surprise and then confusion over the Supreme Leader's grab for authority through his fatwa linking his rule to that of the Imams and even Prophet Mohammad. What is the significance? Mr Verde assesses in a special analysis for EA.

The Latest from Iran (3 July): Fussing and Feuding

2155 GMT: Taking on the Brides. What better way to close a Saturday night than to pick up on the latest triumph of Iran's morality authorities? Mehr News reports that a bridal exhibition in Shiraz has been shut down.

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A reminder that the brothers Arash and Kamiar Alaei, two doctors prominent in the treatment of HIV/AIDS through the triangular clinic system, have entered their third year of detention.

1940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hassan Rahimi Bayat was arrested today at work.

HRANA reports that Peyman Karimi-Azad, detained on Ashura, is in a diabetic coma in Evin Prison after being denied treatment.

NEW Iran Special: The Escalating Crisis Within (Verde)
Iran: Establishing the First “Anti-Censorship Shelter”
Iran Analysis: Assessing Europe’s Sanctions & Tehran’s Oil (Noel)
The Latest from Iran (2 July): Ahmadinejad v. Larijani?

1920 GMT: Economic Front. An interesting revelation about Iran's current economic tensions: while those with higher degrees from universities are 15.1% of the country's workforce, they make up 25.5% of the unemployed.

1910 GMT: Khamenei's "Guidelines" for Filmmakers. The Los Angeles Times picks up on another aspect of the Supreme Leader's statement to those involved in Iranian media (see 1540 GMT), his instructions for suitable movies:

Our film directors should offer products in which positive points eclipse negative and dark points of our society. If you magnify negative points, the society will plunge into disenchantment.

As for censorship, well.... "Sometimes, our artists raise unrealistic concerns about the [restrictions] they face in producing critical films. Some...criticisms against films and television series are correct and they have to respect certain moral, religious and cultural red lines. Transgressing these red lines will be extremely harmful."

So, for example, filmmakers had to keep on their moral toes --- "foreign networks are undertaking incessant efforts to invade chastity and hijab in a bid to destroy the foundation of families in Iran" --- and mind their political manners:

In all products, you should take into consideration the ongoing political events, specifically the animosity of bullying powers against the Iranian nation. Those who claim to be friends of Iran have proven their enmity to our history and culture by their anti-Iranian films. Under such circumstances, any politically motivated show has to be performed carefully not to play into the hands of enemies.

1905 GMT: Which Is More Dangerous: Computers or Guns? The answer of Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam is that "internet terrorism" menaces the Iranian nezam (system).

To which an EA correspondent replies, " And killing people doesn't?"

1655 GMT: Morality Message of Day. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, often seen as the "spiritual mentor" of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but now a possible critic of the President's recent comments on the "morality police", has said: "If a boy and a girl do something against morals, they should be punished with 100 lashes."

1649 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Financial Mis-Manager? Peyke Iran publishes a list of "financial irregularities", from the Tehran municipal budget of 2005 (when Ahmadinejad was mayor) to $14 billion not allocated to the national treasury in the 2008 budget.

1645 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Press TV publishes an English version of the Guardian Council's slap-down of Parliament over control (labelled as "funding") of Islamic Azad University: "Aside from religious and constitutional violations, and ambiguities that are evident in the different parts of this legislation, because this bill necessitates entering the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution (SCCR)'s domain of authority, therefore, it is against Sharia law and in violation of articles 57, and 110 of the Constitution."

In other words, Parliament is subordinate to the SCCR, which is largely seen as an enforcement arm of the Government.

1640 GMT: Holland Blackout on IRIB. The planned visit to Dutch networks by an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting delegation, including its head, Ezatollah Zarghami, has been cancelled after protests by Iranian expatriates and Dutch legislators and media.

1635 GMT: A Clerical Critique. Ayatollah Hashemzadeh-Herissi of Khobregan has asserted that some people are caught up in security and thus act irresponsibly. He added that it is impossible to read some Iranian media because they are "full of lies" and that "values are mistreated in the name of Islam".

1620 GMT: Parliament's Counter-Attack. In the aftermath of the distributing of leaflets by Ahmadinejad supporters denouncing Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, prominent member of Parliament Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam has warned the critics and opponents of Larijani to back off.

Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli has pointed to a disruptive current that "tries to blacken all forces within the nezam (Iranian system)".

And Ali Motahari, now prominently leading the fight against the President, has said that Ahmadinejad "cannot stand criticism". He accused the President of "furnishing" the group of protestors that challenged Parliament's attempt to maintain control of Islamic Azad University, and he asserted that government policies "menace the Iranian nezam".

Ahmadinejad supporter Mohammad Khoshchehreh tried to counter by saying that many "hardliners" are not legitimate in their views.

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (Getting to the Important Part). A striking example of how the difference between viewing Iran "internationally" and watching its internal tensions.

For Agence France Presse, the importance of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at today's Expediency Council lies in the sanctions issues. AFP highlights this passage:

The world arrogance (US) is trying to intimidate countries of the region, so they go along with bullying policies against Iran, but will not succeed in this act. It is an overt, bullying action against Iran when the US president officially announces that they are targeting the heart of Iran's nuclear programme.

EA's German Bureau gets past this diversion to find the importance of the statement, noting the summary of the Iranian Labor News Agency. Rafsanjani said officials should stop battles between different "gangs", as there is a danger that "radical groups" will weaken the three powers [executive, legislative, and judiciary], official institutions, and officials.

1555 GMT: Rahnavard Intervenes. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement urging Iranian authorities to end the oppression of political prisoners:

Today the prisons should be proud to have become the residence of the noble and pure individuals who only seek freedom, democracy, justice, and affluence of humanity and have no concern but the prosperity of the nation; today the prisons are hosts of scientific elite, students, professors, journalists, winner of scientific Olympiads, and defenders of human rights.

1540 GMT: Supreme Leader Meets Iran's State Media, Warns Against Lies. That's probably an overdramatic label --- Ayatollah Khamenei, meeting the Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and producers, writers and artists, was not referring to any lies by IRIB.

Instead Khamenei said, "Those who provided Saddam Hussein with weapons and chemical materials to commit crimes against the Iranian nation have established so-called cultural networks today to pursue the same objectives. This fact should not be overlooked by anyone."

1520 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Guardian Council, favouring the Ahmadinejad Government, has rejected the Parliament bill asserting its control over Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Sanctions. Absolutely no rhetorical overkill in today's declaration by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

[The West knows] that there is a sleeping lion in Iran which is waking up and if she wakes up all the relationships in the world will change. Their pathetic acts show they know what a great human power is hidden in Iran.

They thought that by having meetings and talking to each other and signing papers they could stop a great nation's progress. Iran is much greater than what they can perceive it in their small minds. We know that if this Iranian civilization awakes then there would be no more room for arrogant, corrupt and bullying powers.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained labour activist Mansour Osanloo appeared in a Karaj court on Wednesday for unknown reasons.

Hamzeh Karami, manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has reportedly been hospitalised in Evin Prison with heart and respiratory problems. Karami was arrested shortly after the June 2009 election.

1315 GMT: The Kahrizak Cover-Up. Human rights activist and former member of Parliament Ali Akbar Mosavi Khoeni has asked for a "proper" enquiry by the Government into the handling of the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

Two prison employees were sentenced to death this week and nine others were given jail terms after a closed-door trial, but activists believe senior officials responsible for Kahrizak have escaped investigation and punishment.

1300 GMT: (Digital) Economy Watch. Iran has ranked 69th out of 70 countries for strength of "digital economy" in a study conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit and IBM's Institute for Business Value.

Iran was 68th in 2009 but avoided a fall to the absolute bottom this year by edging out Azerbaijan.

1110 GMT: Play It Again, Ali. He might be fighting with the President at home, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is maintaining Iran's common tough-talk line on sanctions. He told reporters Friday that threats will not work against Tehran: "If the US wants to act in the same way as before, this approach would prove costly for them."

0840 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America offers a useful summary, "Iranian Officials Scoff at Impact of New US Economic Sanctions".

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran publishes what it claims is a psychologist's report from August about Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan. It includes provocative items such as Radan's alleged promise to detainees in the now-infamous Kahrizak Prisoners that "they should forget Auschwitz and Guantanamo".

Parleman News claims journalist Aazam Veysameh is being held incommunicado in solitary confinement, with no visits from family.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a special analysis from Mr Verde, "The Escalating Crisis Within".

Meanwhile....

World Cup Funnies

EA has posted a comedy piece (we think it's a comedy piece) by a former speechwriter for George W. Bush who claims, "Soccer is a Socialist Sport", but football humour isn't limited to the US.

Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did a routine on how the World Cup humiliations of France, England, and the US were due to God's smiting of those who oppressed Iran with sanctions (and qualification for the World Cup). The punchline comes from Parleman News, however: the website notes that God seems to have turned against Tehran by taking down its ally on the nuclear issue, Brazil.

EA is waiting for Mottaki's assessment of what God thinks about Holland, Brazil's conquerors in the quarter-finals.

Conflicting Signals

Unfortunately for the Government, the confusion is not only over God and football. While Tehran's Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Emami Kashani, was giving the party line that opposition could not be tolerated, warning lawyers that defence of wrongdoers is forbidden, the Friday Prayer leader in Golestan, Ayatollah Nour-Mofidi, said, "Criticism of government does not mean opposition to nezam [the Iranian system]", and media loyal to that system should be free.

Deputy Speaker of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi tried to hold everything together by denouncing Iran's enemies --- the US is like the Soviet Union before its decline --- and attacking Mir Hossein Mousavi. Not sure that the attack brought home its intended message, however. Boroujerdi said Iran ad 80% popularity in Muslim countries before elections and this dropped to 27 % afterwards --- but is that shift really due to Mousavi rather than, say, some other politician or regime figure?