The Latest from Iran (30 July): Stepping Up the Criticism

2135 GMT: Political Prison Experience. Reza Rafii-Forushan, an Iranian stringer for Time magazine, has written an open letter appealing against his "frame-up" by Iranian authorities and complaining about abuses in prison.

Rafii-Forushan was arrested on 27 June 2009 and held for 43 days in solitary confinement during his interrogation.

2130 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Arshama3's Blog lists the individuals, institutions, and companies subjected to new sanctions by the European Union.

1915 GMT: Going after Jannati. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has joined Mehdi Karroubi's attack on Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry), demanding that Jannati “clarify how and when he has secured...documents" that allegedly show a US-Saudi $50 billion plot for regime change. They question, "How can an individual that does not refrain from committing the biggest sins, be in charge of two positions that have justice as their first criterion?"

This, however, may be the most intriguing sentence: "Has he made these revelations with the authority of the relevant officials?” EA sources indicate that, because Jannati is seen as being close to the Supreme Leader, the criticism of him is an indirect challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei's authority.

NEW Iran Music Video Special: The Award-Winning “Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone”
NEW Iran’s Persecution of Rights: The Pursuit of Lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (Shahryar)
Iran Document: Karroubi Strongly Criticises Head of Guardian Council (29 July)
Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)
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The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1910 GMT: Containing the Cleric. It is being reported that Molana Abdolhamid, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader of Zahedan, has been barred from leaving country and his passport has been confiscated.

1830 GMT: Poster of the Day. Courtesy of the Iranian Government, "A Woman without Hijab is like a Chair with Three Legs".



1800 GMT: Client and Lawyer Watch. The Guardian of London has a lengthy profile of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death for adultery (on the basis, the article claims, of a 3-2 decision amongst the judges), who has sent a message from inside Tabriz Prison.

Deep in the article is this sentence about Mohammad Mostafaei, Ashtiani's lawyer, who is hiding after authorities tried to detain him and arrested his wife and brother-in-law: "The Guardian has learned that Mostafaei is safe for the moment and plans to publish an open letter to Tehran's prosecutor."

1730 GMT: Larijani Watch. Today's claim of "strong Iran leader" by Ali Larijani comes in the pages of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Stressing that Iran's motives in the Middle East, as it does not seek an empire, Larijani declared, "If the Zionist regime bullies Palestine we will stand against it, and if it decides to attack Lebanon Hezbollah will confront it."

As for uranium and sanctions, Larijani emphasised Iran's pursuit of peaceful nuclear capability: "When the US questions why Iran has nuclear and missile technology it is because [it is unhappy that] we have the ability to obtain such technologies.....Had we been producing fruit juice, mineral water, and tomato paste, it (the US) would never have raised an objection....They claim that Iran has nuclear weapons, but they never say [a word about] the Zionist regime, which is their friend [and] possesses nukes."

1645 GMT: Do Not Panic. Might be worth noting this reference from Mehr News to Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer: "He...called on people who have deposited their money in foreign banks to return their funds to Iran."

1620 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Back from a break to find a far-from-unexpected tweak in the sanctions tale. The Chinese Government has said that it does not approve of new sanctions imposed by the European Union while welcoming Tehran's offer to return to negotiations on uranium enrichment.

A Foreign Ministry statement declared, "China does not approve of the European Union's unilateral sanctions on Iran. We hope that all relevant parties can support a diplomatic solution and appropriately resolve the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations."

1300 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Update. Have to be honest, it's hard working up enthusiasm over Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer.

The cleric called for Iranian cohesion --- political, economic, and cultural --- in the face of sanctions. However, any white-hot rhetoric seemed to be cooled by the Iranian Government's indications this week that it would enter discussions, even with the "enemy", over its uranium enrichment programme. (Earlier on Friday, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said it was "out of the question for Iran to promise never to enrich uranium" but said the move for 20% enriched uranium could be suspended if talks were held.)

That left Emami Kashani's defiance with the line that the great Iranian nation would not need "outside help" to produce the necessary uranium for civilian purposes.

1255 GMT: Mahmoud's University Push. Hmm, I get the feeling that the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, supposedly resolved by the Supreme Leader's intervention, could flare up again....

Speaking to a student organisation, President Ahmadinejad warned that "enemies" are trying to create space for their activities within Iran's universities.

1215 GMT: Conspiracy Theory Update. First it was President Ahmadinejad with warnings of an imminent American strike on two Arab countries allied with Tehran , then it was Ayatollah Jannati, the leader of the Guardian Council with revelations of the US-Saudi $50 billion "regime change" scheme, now it's the "nuclear-pig-blood cigarette plot".

Mohammad Reza Madani from the Society for Fighting Smoking said contraband Marlboros, part of the 20 billion cigarettes smuggled into Iran each year,  have been contaminated with pig hemoglobin and unspecified nuclear material.

Madani claimed Philip Morris International, which sells Marlboro outside the US, is "led by Zionists" and deliberately exports tainted cigarettes.

1055 GMT: Mousavi's 1988 Resignation Letter. Mr Verde stops by to discuss Mir Hossein Mousavi's letter of resignation as Prime Minister, reprinted yesterday on the website of former President Abolhassan Banisadr:

The letter in general accuses Ayatollah Khamenei, who was President in 1988, of meddling in affairs which are not directly his responsibility. This is similar to the accusations about his current activity as the Supreme Leader. It also shows the internal workings of the Islamic Republic to be chaotic and haphazard.

Point 2 of the letter talks about “external operations” and lists: a plane hijacking, a shooting in a Lebanese street, and discovery of explosives on Iranian hajj pilgrims. It says that these operations are disastrous for the country and could be repeated any moment.
The tone of the letter is suggesting that all of these are carried out by the Islamic Republic's officials and that Khamenei is involved in them, although it says that the Prime Minister [Mousavi] is in the dark about it.

These accusations are not coming from regime opponents or foreign governments. They are coming from the Islamic Republic's Prime Minister.

1. Mousavi is accusing Khamenei, as President, of being involved in terrorist activity overseas. This could be used to embarrass Khamenei further, placing the activity next to the actions of the Islamic Republic after Khamenei became Supreme Leader, e.g. Chain Murders, attacks on student dormitories, street killings, prison rapes, etc.

2. The letter suggests that the Islamic Republic was regularly involved in terrorist activity overseas, an allegation which could be damaging to the current regime .

Will Mousavi confirm this, deny this, or, as he had for 22 years since the letter was first leaked, ignore this?

What will Khamenei’s side do? Will they “leak” letters and information which would counter this letter? If they play the card of Ayatollah Khomeini, then Supreme Leader, it would mean tha,t despite his best efforts, Kahmenei has again have been forced to hide behind Khomeini.

Although the current intra-regime arguments started with the dispute over the 2009 presidential elections, this episode has the potential to cause trouble well beyond that. One can't help get the feeling that events --- in this case but not only in this case --- may spiral out of control.

1040 GMT: EA's Hot Tips of Day. Based on information from sources:

1. Discussions earlier this month between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei on action against the President --- which we covered on EA --- have been followed by several meetings between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

2. The Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa followed a visit to Qom, and specifically to Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi, by member of Ayatollah Khamenei's office. Makarem-Shirazi said he could not support a unilateral declaration by the Supreme Leader but he could accept a declaration framed as an answer to a question from a follower. The question and answer followed two or three days later.

0945 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the music video, "Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone!", which has just won an award in Britain, including an interview with the members of the Iranian band, Blurred Vision.

The Independent of London has also posted an interview with the band members.

0815 GMT: Talking Tough. Hojatoleslam Mojtaba Zolnour, the representative of the Supreme Leader in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, grabs the spotlight with the warning that there should be action against Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zolnour said Tehran would "act correspondingly" if its ships were challenged. He added, "Sanctions will backfire and have grave consequences for [these countries]."

0610 GMT: Watching Karroubi (and the Reaction to Karroubi). We're keeping eyes open for the reaction to Mehdi Karroubi's open letter to Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council (posted in a separate entry). To call this a "criticism" is a major understatement: Karroubi is effectively accusing one of Iran's leading political and religious figures of being --- at the least --- an accomplice to election fraud and Government repression.

0600 GMT: We start today with a focus on human rights, specifically the regime's attempt to limit or even prevent the defence of them. Josh Shahryar offers a feature on the Government's pursuit of lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who is missing as his wife and brother-in-law sit in prison.

Mostafaei's colleague Shadi Sadr, who was forced into exile by the regime, has written to the Iranian Bar Association:

It appears that the legal-security system, while forced to stop carrying out the stoning sentence [against Mostafaei's client Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani], is hell bent on taking revenge on Mr Mostafaei by some trumped-up charges. Since they were unable to find him, they have arrested his wife and brother-in-law....

This is not the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the family of a civil activist have been taken hostage. The policy of oppression of activists by pressurising their family members by different forms, from threatening them to extracting "confessions" by torture, has been used brutally in the past few years. In one of the recent cases, the husband of Mrs Shirin Ebadi, a member of the Bar Association of Iran, human rights activist and Nobel Laureate, was forced to speak against her on camera after several days of incarceration....

As a lawyer, a member of the Central Court lawyers, also as a client and defendant, I urge you, who lead this oldest civil law society in Iran, not to remain silent on state kidnap and retaliation....If we do not act against this policy, whose victims today are Shirin Ebadi and Mohammad Mostafaie, it will attack every single one of us tomorrow.

The Latest from Iran (25 July): The Re-Appearing Fatwa

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kayvan Samimi, chief editor of the banned publication Nameh has been given a six-year jail term and has been banned from social, political, and cultural activities for 15 years.

1845 GMT: Defining Irony. From Press TV:

An Iranian lawmaker says Tehran plans to file a lawsuit against the US over the inhumane policies adopted by Washington towards the people of Iran.

"It has been agreed that the issue of US violation of human rights as well as its double standard policies be raised in the international community and a lawsuit be filed to seek compensation for some of the damages inflicted on Iran because of it," member of the Majlis Human Rights Committee Zohreh Elahian said on Sunday.

The Iranian lawmaker said American media have turned human rights into a tool by means of which they manipulate world public opinion, adding, “The US uses human rights to pressure Iran while this country does not observe even the most basic articles of the human rights law.”

NEW Iran Analysis: Re-Defining the Green Movement (Verde)
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UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
The Latest from Iran (24 July): Reviewing the Situation

1825 GMT: The International Front. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has confirmed statements by his Turkish and Brazilian counterparts (see 1410 GMT) that Iran will be ready for discussions on its nuclear programme after the month of Ramadan ends in the second week of September.

1820 GMT: Easing the Energy Squeeze? Mehr News claims that Iran has signed a $1.29 billion deal sending its natural gas to Turkey, which secure 77% of the required funding for completing the 660-kilometre pipeline.

Iran currently exports 25 million cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey per day and the figure could rise to 30 million cubic meters a day.

1810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the two-year sentence of Garmsar Azad University student Masoud Babapour.

Journalist Emaduddin Baghi has been sentenced to one year in prison and a five-year ban on political and media activities.

The punishment is not in connection with Baghi's December 2009 arrest, which followed his interview with the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri for BBC Persian, but stems from a 2008 case. Baghi is currently free on bail.

1458 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ali Malihi has been sentenced to four years in prison.

1454 GMT: Energy Squeeze. Emad Hosseini of Parliament's Energy Commission says the situation with Iran's ministry overseeing electricity and water is at its worst point since the Revolution.

1450 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News reports that 600 workers at Khuzestan Pipe Factory have not been paid for 15 months.

1440 GMT: Economy Watch (China Edition). Aftab News summarises how local products are being replaced by Chinese imports, including green raisins in Kashmar, handicrafts in Isfahan, rice in Caspian Sea provinces. Perhaps "caraways in Kerman" (for British readers, equal to "coals to Newcastle") will be next?

Mehr drives home the point with pictures of the old Carpet Bazaar in Qom, now closed because of imported Chinese rugs.

1435 GMT: Rahnavard Watch. Activist Zahra Rahnavard, meeting a group of political activists, has declared: “A part of the current government sees women as a serious threat. They attack women in the streets, prisons, and in their media in different ways, and by repression, torture, and character assassination they are putting women under unprecedented pressure. These kinds of treatments have saddened noble Iranian men and for sure will strengthen their resistance for democracy and freedom. Of course the Green Movement also realizes that achieving its high values will not be possible without women’s presence and paying attention to their demands.”

1430 GMT: And a Kidnapped Activist? Hoda Saber of the National Religious Front is missing, possibly kidnapped, after leaving the office on Saturday afternoon.

1425 GMT: The Missing Lawyer. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that prominent human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is missing and his wife and brother-in-law have been detained.

Earlier in the week Mostafaei was summoned to the Prosecutor's Office in Evin Prison and questioned for four hours. Security forces tried to arrest Mostafaei yesterday afternoon but could not find him, arresting family members near his office instead.

Mostafaei is the lawyer of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, whose death sentence for adultery has provoked international criticism of the Iranian regime.

1420 GMT: Labour Front. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that Saeed Torabian, an activist with the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been prevented from working after his recent release from detention.

1415 GMT: Economy Watch. Another sign of the recession? Khabar Online reports that automobile companies have closed and traders are in big difficulties because of low prices.

1410 GMT: International Front. Back at EA headquarters to find that the foreign ministers of Turkey and Brazil, following a meeting with Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki, are saying they will press Iran and the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, France) to meet "as soon as possible" on Tehran's uranium-enrichment programme, possibly with discussions in Kabul.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Iran was "ready to begin negotiations", specifically citing a possible exchange with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, and that Tehran will send a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday.

Davutoglu suggests talks might begin soon after the holy month of Ramadan ends in the second week of September.

0950 GMT: Education Corner. Peyke Iran claims the Government's new effort for "Islamisation" of schools has begun.

Saadollah Nasiri, a member of Parliament's educational commission has said that "retiring" professors is discrimination, with the Government using "scientific stagnation" as a pretext to remove "secular" or anti-Government academics. (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20110/)

Meanwhile, Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo, according to Fars News, has said that Iran needs about 22,000 academics for social sciences. Daneshjoo's statements are considered by some as a call to replace existing staff with "suitable" scholars. (http://news.gooya.com/politics/archives/2010/07/108086.php)

0945 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Reformist
MP Hojatoleslam Qodratollah Alikhani: "Instead of denying it, President Ahmadinejad should at least apologise for the incompetence and mismanagement of his Government leading to sanctions and unemployment." (http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=12598)

The enquiry by the Majlis into the conduct of Minister of Agriculture Khalilian after summer vacation. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-78207.aspx)

0940 GMT: International Front. The foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Brazil are meeting in Istanbul to discuss developments since their declaration this spring for talks on Iran's uranium enrichment. (http://aje.me/9WcZMD)

0855 GMT: Rumour of Day. Green Voice of Freedom claims that the President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is overseeing construction of a large residential complex in Belarus, implying that this is preparation for the event that regime leaders will have to flee the country.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud is Not So Mean. President Ahmadinejad today advised the "West", "We recommend them not to continue with their misconducts and observe the rights of nations if they seek to improve their position in the future. This will serve their own interests....We advocate logic and friendship. Every country that establishes friendly relations with Iran benefits this policy."

Ahmadinejad specifically addressed European countries, "Your misbehavior will bring nothing to you but discredit. It will have no impact on the Iranian nation."

0730 GMT: Now That's Just Mean. First Vice President Mohammad Reza AN's Rahimi, opening inaugurating an environmental fair, has said that "Westerners" are filthier than goats.

0700 GMT: We have posted a separate analysis by Mr Verde, "Re-Defining the Green Movement".

0650 GMT: Talking Tough. Iran's military leaders have tried to match the "war chatter" from some groups in the US with declarations across the media: Revolutionary Guards head Jafari says the US does not dare attack, and former commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi describes air and sea conflict if the Americans did.

My favourite quote, however --- representing both Iranian tough talk and the simplication of it by media in the "West" --- is in the Associated Press from former navy head Morteza Saffari, "We have set aside 100 military vessels for each (US) warship to attack at the time of necessity."

0644 GMT: Revolutionary Guards' Jafari "We Are Not United". Yesterday we noted the statement of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, that leaders of sedition would be dealt with in a timely fashion.

We missed the more intriguing part of the speech:Jafari admitted for the first time in public that some IRGC commanders --- Mohsen Rashid, Moh Ozlati Moghaddam, Hemmat, Bakeri, Zeynoddin --- had supported the opposition, but added that they should not be "eliminated".

0640 GMT: Protesting the Execution. The BBC has posted an article on Saturday's rally in London for Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman sentenced to death for adultery.

0635 GMT: The Memorial for the Poet. Tehran Bureau has posted one of Ahmad Shamlou's poems, "In This Blind Alley", published soon after the 1979 Revolution. Yesterday security forces dispersed those gathered for the memorial for the 10th anniversary of Shamlou's death.

0630 GMT: Only the "Right" Knowledge, Please. There are reports that Wikipedia was blocked in Iran yesterday.

0540 GMT: Here today, gone tomorrow, back again the day after tomorrow....

The case of the Supreme Leader''s "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa took another turn last night when, having receded in the Iranian state media, it suddenly appeared on Ayatollah Khamenei's website. (When it was put out on Tuesday, it was put out in locations to which the website linked, not the site itself.)

The fatwa asserting that the Supreme Leader acts for the Imams and the Prophet Mohammad and must be obeyed is part of a longer treatise in response to a follower's question about the obligations to velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy).

Meanwhile....

Trouble for the Guards in the Oilfield

Revolutionary Guards commander Sardar Ghasemi has admitted the construction firm Khatam-ol Anbia, associated with the Guards, is hindered by old technology and "rusty oil wells". The firm had been awarded a major contract to develop the South Pars gas and oil field, after the withdrawal of foreign companies, but has since pulled back from the project.

The Latest from Iran (23 July): Receding Authority

1130 GMT: New Media Nonsense. A quick note to The International Herald Tribune: if  you are going to shell out money for a guest columnist to discuss the political effects of new media in the Middle East and Iran, you might to go to someone who is actually involved with those new media. Otherwise you get declarations like this:

We must face the fact that all the new media and hundreds of thousands of young bloggers from Morocco to Iran have not triggered a single significant or lasting change in Arab or Iranian political culture. Not a single one. Zero.

(I should add that I am a great admirer of Rami Khouri, who wrote the column. To my knowledge, however, his primary connection with the subject on which he is pronouncing is as an observer of "Millions of young people communicate with each other digitally, express their views and identities, and sometimes mobilize for causes as disparate as promoting a new movie, arranging a dance party, sharing photos or bemoaning a tired old dictator".)

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Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. Minister of Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari has warned against any plan for the inspection of the country's cargo ships: "Iran reserves the right to respond to inspections as any such attempts will be a move beyond the sanctions resolution."

0855 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV, drawing from Mehr News, reports:

Iran ranks sixth among the world's countries based on inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) performance, the latest report released by a UN agency shows.

New data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) show that Iran attracted more than $3 billion of direct investment from abroad in 2009, which is twice the amount of the previous year. This is despite the fact that global FDI inflows dropped during 2009 as compared to the previous year.

The UNCTAD ranking is for the year 2009, the most recent year available, and examines the economies of 141 economies.

The link to the "Country Fact Sheet" for the report is currently broken. Other reports have indicated that foreign direct investment into Iran has plummeted in recent months.

0605 GMT: Declaration of the Day. Meeting the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallah on Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pronounced, "All the injustices and brutalities in the world today will soon be eradicated with the awakening of all nations."

No comment.

0530 GMT: Three days after it started, the affair of the Supreme Leader's "disappearing" fatwa is still inconclusive. There has no been explanation for why his declaration --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- suddenly showed up and was then withdrawn from most of the official Iranian media.

Mr Verde has done an excellent job at rounding up the political and religious possibilities, none of which are promising for Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. I will go a step further: amidst all the challenges within the Iranian system, the confusion points to two aspects:

1. The Supreme Leader wanted to bring senior clerics, many of whom have been disquieted by the growing conflict amongst "the establishment", in line by asserting his leadership. The fatwa was the wrong move, however: far from reassuring the clerics of Khamenei's authority, it soon provoked more concern. So it had to be pulled back.

And/or...

2. There is a rift even within Khamenei's inner circle. One group pushed this initiative --- likely with Khamenei's assent, but possibly going farther than the Supreme Leader might have expected --- another pushed back.

Speculative, I know. So maybe it's best to start by saying that the outcome of this week is not clarity but confusion. And, as Mr Verde has driven home, it is not strength but weakness.

Meanwhile....

The Universities Fight

In another pointer to the challenges for and possibly to the Supreme Leader, conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that Khamenei has left the resolution of the conflict over Islamic Azad University to the judiciary.

Political Prisoner Watch

Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, http://www.rahesabz.net/story/20011/ of labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained for three years.

The "Discussions with the US" Diversion

The curious episode of Iran's claims that it has been approached by Washington for talks --- revelation or propaganda? --- trundles on. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has said there should be no preconditions on discussions.

Trouble with the Water

The Governor of Tehran Province, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that the Minister of Health is responsible for the problems with the capital's polluted water supply.

The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2120 GMT: Back to our lead story today....

Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has picked up on the Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, "Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth".

We are still trying to get to the bottom of whether the fatwa was genuine but has been pulled back from prominence, whether it was released prematurely, or whether it is the outcome of a far-from-ordinary rift within the establishment (to the point of being "disinformation").

We will have a fresh analysis in the morning. Snapshot? Whether the fatwa is genuine or now suspect, the episode does not bode well for Ayatollah Khamenei.

NEW Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
NEW Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei “I am the Rule of the Prophet”

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Akbar Karami, a noted religious scholar, has been released on bail.

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, has had his first prison visit in more than three months. Ali Tavakoli, Majid's brother, said that he was allowed to see his brother for 10 minutes from behind a booth.

Ali Tavakoli said Majid's physical appearance was better than before and that he was in excellent spirits.

Majid Tavakoli is serving an 8 1/2-year sentence.

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has warned about rising prices before Ramadan in August and said the Bazaar must control those prices without reliance on more imports.

Kavakebian also said that the sale of 18% of the auto company Saipa --- officially going to employees, unofficially rumoured to a firm associated with the Revolutionary Guard --- will suffer the same fate as the privatisation of Iran Telecom.

1440 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Document. Arshama3's Blog has re-posted and offered a quick assessment of the leaked document setting out Islamic Revolution Guards Corps procedures for monitoring the Iranian opposition.

1435 GMT: The Clerical Front. Four senior clerics, asked about "teacher-centred lectures", have responded by rejecting the concept and declaring that the seminary must remain independent.

1430 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Hamshahri alleges that Iran is exporting cheap power to the Herat area in western Afghanistan while the domestic industry and facilities are damaged. The newspaper claims Afghans have made a profit of $2 million while Iran has lost that amount.

1415 GMT: Economic Non-Data. Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, has again declined to publish the country's rate of growth.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Vismeh has been released from detention.

1355 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz writes that more associates of the Fatemi Street insurance fraud have been summoned to court.

1345 GMT: After the Bombings. MP Zohreh Elahyian, a member of the National Security Council, has said that more control of foreign residents is planned. She blamed problems in border regions on Mossad and CIA "with their dollars".

Elahyian said, "We have full control in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, but this incident proves the long-term planning of the enemy."

1314 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Trade and shipping source say the owner of a gasoline tanker, believed to be the Libyan-flagged Lia, has refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey.

1310 GMT: Parliament v. President. Is it reconcilation time? There has been a meeting of Government and Majlis representatives after the 20-day vacation of Parliament, and the Government is reportedly sending the legal decisions on its budget and legislation to the Majlis next week.

1305 GMT: Another Bust-Up in the Establishment. Aftab News publishes what appears to be a dramatic story of more tensions between the Government and "hardliners". The President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai reportedly claims that Ahmadinejad said Rahim-Mashi would be targeted as a "kafaar" (infidel) within a year. In particular, there would be problems with Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Kayhan. Rahim-Mashai is quoted, "To Shariatmadari, I'm no Muslim but a spy, monafegh (heretic), and member of the violet coup."

1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa. We find ourselves caught up in an increasingly murky story over the appearance of the Supreme Leader's fatwa on Tuesday. It is not appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's "official" sites. It is still up on Iranian Labor News Agency but not on Iran Students News Agency.

An EA correspondent, noting a similar case recently over another purported Khamenei fatwaagainst Motorola's mobile phones and other products because of the company's business with Israel, writes, "Something is fishy about these supposed fatwas....I am not really sure who is running these fatwas and why."

Meanwhile, sociologist Majid Mohammadi assesses the present fatwa and declares that it is a "gravestone on the rule of justice".

1240 GMT: The Guardians. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has been re-elected as head of the Guardian Council.

1105 GMT: Today's "Western Approach" Story. Now it's the British who are supposedly begging for talks. From Mehr News: "Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has twice rebuffed the British ambassador’s request for a meeting. On June 27, the British ambassador to Iran sent a letter to Khatami asking if a meeting could be scheduled, but Khatami did not reply to the letter. Later, the British Embassy sent a letter to him via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the cleric responded this time but said he did not want to meet the British ambassador."

Mehr does not offer the possible topics for this meeting, and it is unclear why the British would seek out Khatami, who has no official position in Iran's political hierarchy.

1048 GMT: At the Movies. From CNN:

A government-linked film studio in Iran plans to make a movie about the Iranian nuclear scientist who Iranian officials say was kidnapped by U.S. agents, state media reported Tuesday.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Sima Film production company has hired a group of film school graduates to write a script about Shahram Amiri. The head of the production company didn't say when the film would be ready.

1045 GMT: Travel Dip. Kalemeh reports that tourism to Iran has dropped 60%.

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. The Supreme Leader has repeated that the intelligence services of the US, Britain, and Israel are to blame for last week's suicide bombings in southeastern Iran: "One of the main goals of the enemies behind the terrorist attack in Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan was to create division and religious discord."

Ali Larijani, at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, declared that the US lacks the courage to strike Tehran: "Iran is ready for any possible incidents and is well aware of the ongoing developments in the region. If the US makes such a mistake, it will pay dearly."

1000 GMT: Mousavi Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, meeting professors in the Islamic Association of Teachers, has spoken about the Green media and the need to counter the propaganda of Iranian state outlets.

0955 GMT: The Khamenei Fatwa. An English translation of the Rah-e-Sabz article on the Supreme Leader's declaration has been posted: "For the first time, and openly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, in response to a religious letter, has placed himself officially on the saintly level of ‘all-qualified priest’, ‘deputy Imam at the time of the absence [of the 12th Imam]’, ‘the ruling branch of the Imams’, and ‘true all-time deputy to the Prophet’. He pointed out there shall be an absolute obedience to his governmental orders to reveal ‘full commitment to the Supreme Leader’."

0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch write in The Washington Post, "New Sanctions Crimp Iran's Shipping Business as Insurers Withhold Coverage".

Beyond noting the recent announcement by Lloyd's of London that it is halting coverage of gasoline imports to Iran, Erdbrink and Lynch quote Mohammad Ronaghi, the deputy manager of Iran's Sea Pars, "Iranian-flagged ships are facing problems all over the world as they currently have no insurance coverage because of the new sanctions. Basically, most ports will refuse them entry if they are not covered for possible damages."

The journalists also note the specific difficulties of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines while carrying this reassurance from its managing director, Mohammad Hussein Dajmar, "These sanctions have not affected us much. The world has many ports. We will sail to those nations that want to do business with us."

0900 GMT: The Push Against Ahmadinejad. The battle within the Iranian establishment is now getting some attention: Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has posted a lengthy overview, "Iranian Conservatives Unite In Bid To Undermine Ahmadinejad".

(A bit of illuminating background to the story. I spoke for about 30 minutes with Tait as he was researching the article. We initially discussed EA's "exclusive" on the discussions between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei over a move against the President.

Tait does not refer directly to the Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei talks --- it is difficult to do so without named sources --- but writes instead, with a link back to our article:

One report has even suggested that conservatives have met to plot a way of impeaching Ahmadinejad and remove him from office, although seasoned observers caution that such an outcome is unthinkable without Khamenei's approval -- which is thought unlikely.

As an unseasoned observer, I also told Tait that the discussions, even amongst high-ranking conservatives, had to win over the Supreme Leader: that is a key reason why Larijani and Co. were hoping to bring in senior clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani.)

0700 GMT: We've posted a quick follow-up note on the US-based media's insistence on hyping the possibility/probability of Israeli military action against Iran as fact rather than speculation.

0555 GMT: Let's start the morning with a bit of perspective.

Tuesday's big story was not the supposed US approach to Tehran for discussions --- which was at most a request by Senator John Kerry to come to Iran and which may or may not have been true and may or may not have been whipped up by Iranian state media.

Tuesday's big story was not a possible Israeli military strike against Iran, which for now exists more on the keyboards of feverish "analysts" who --- from hysteria, speculation, ingenuity, or simple desire for such a strike --- than in any plans in West Jerusalem and Washington.

Tuesday's big story was not Iran's five-point plan for Afghanistan, unfurled at the Kabul Summit by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as an attempted sign of Tehran's influence in Central Asia and a counter to Western attention to sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

Tuesday's big story was the surprise and then confusion over the Supreme Leader's grab for authority through his fatwa linking his rule to that of the Imams and even Prophet Mohammad. What is the significance? Mr Verde assesses in a special analysis for EA.

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Criticisms and the Leader

1845 GMT: Academic Corner. A follow-up to our stories that 30 Tehran University professors were being "retired", ostensibly because they had completed their period of service....

Professor Rouhollah Alami said he suddenly received news about his dismissal from Tehran University officials. He had been at the university for 22 years but had 14 years left to retirement.

1735 GMT: Pressing the Government. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has noted, "Apparently some ministers have 'special immunity'," since the Minister of Interior, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, did not reply to his question from April and did not appear even once in the Majlis.

1725 GMT: After the Bombings. Iran has closed the Taftan post on the Pakistan border, about 55 miles southeast of Zahedan, the site of last Thursday's double suicide bombing. Reports indicated this has caused significant supply problems for inhabitants.

NEW Iran’s Made-Up Stories: Fars News Busted by “Zionist” Journalist Ghazi
NEW Iran Analysis: Voices Raised — Removing the Supreme Leader (Verde)
Iran’s New Guidance: Good, Good Lovin’ (But Only at Night)
Change for Iran: Why Twitter Has Made a Difference
The Latest from Iran (18 July): Bazaar Resolutions?

1640 GMT: Reformist Rift? MP Ahmadreza Dastgheib of the Imam Khomeini Line has blamed reformists, especially non-academics, for not spreading their ideas throughout society. Dastgheib said that "we" should have explained our theories to all sectors of society but that this is obviously impossible today.

The MP added that a "big mistake" was that former President Mohammad Khatami, given his recognition in Iran, did not run for the presidency in 200.

1625 GMT: Pictures of the Day (2). Mehr News, which is far from an anti-Government site, posts a series of photographs illustrating the effect of power outages on Iranian industry:



1620 GMT: Picture of the Day. Filmmakers Mohammad Nourizad and Jafar Panahi are reunited. Both were released this spring on bail, Nourizad after six months in detention, Panahi after three.

1500 GMT: Challenging the Supreme Leader. Fereshteh Ghazi offers an analysis of journalist Isa Saharkhiz's statement in court --- covered in our opening update (0555 GMT) and a separate analysis --- refusing to offer a defence and challenging the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei.

1455 GMT: Watching Larijani. OK, here's what Larijani said publicly today in Geneva after his meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon: "We need a new plan [on Tehran's nuclear programme] in which Iran's rights are completely supported....The problems of Iraq and of Afghanistan after occupation, which have caused an increase in the production of illicit drugs and led to the spread of terrorism, are the result of wrongful US policies and actions. “

Yeah, yeah. But what did Larijani say in private?

1450 GMT: We've posted a feature in which Fereshteh Ghazi exposes the made-up news of Fars and gets called a "Zionist" for her efforts.

1340 GMT: Sanctions Front. The Wall Street Journal, citing "Western officials", targets the European-Iranian Trade Bank AG (EIH) for helping Iran to get around international sanctions.

The officials allege that EIH has been "conducting euro-denominated transactions on behalf of Iran's Bank Sepah", involving business with Iran's Defense Industries Organization, the Aerospace Industries Organization and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

The newspaper also carries an interview with India's petroleum secretary, who says "the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Iran could complicate the activities of Indian state-controlled companies that are looking to invest in Iran's oil and gas sector".

Elsewhere, a memorandum, signed by Turkish Public Works & Housing Minister Mustafa Demir and Iranian Minister of Housing & Development Ali Nikzad in Tehran, envisages cooperation in the construction sector. The memorandum commits to exchange of information and experience, cooperation in public housing projects, research and training of experts, production of construction materials, and use of products of latest technology.

1335 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has given a lengthy interview about her views on the political and legal situation. Amidst that discussion, she reiterated that her father would not return to lead Tehran Friday Prayers until there was political reconciliation. (Rafsanjani's last Friday Prayer was 17 July 2009.)

In another passage of the interview, Hashemi rebutted charges that she was accumulating private wealth: "I am a normal woman. My husband provides for me and I have no income."

1215 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? In a speech broadcast on state TV, President Ahmadinejad told industrialists in northern Iran, "[The US] adopts a resolution to force a dialogue, but this cowboy logic has no place in Iran."

Ahmadinejad continued with the defiance, "They say we have intelligence that Iranians will most likely build one atomic bomb. Well, this is a lie, but let's say it is true. How many atomic bombs do you have? The Americans themselves say 5,000 plus....Is someone who has 5,000 fourth and fifth generation atomic bombs, with very advanced launchers, afraid of one bomb? They are not afraid of one, not of a hundred, not of a thousand (bombs). They are afraid of the collective awakening of the Iranian soul."

Yet --- and forgive me if I am reading too much into Mahmoud's rhetoric --- there may have been a glimpse that Ahmadinejad would like to get back to last autumn's discussions: "We are for negotiations, but to do so you have to sit down like a good boy."

1050 GMT: Claim of Day. An Iranian cleric explains, "We have made swimming pools and Jacuzzis in Evin for prisoners."

0950 GMT: Iran's Networks. Dr. Gholamreza Kashi, speaking in a conference about social networks and identity at Iran's Strategic Center, has said that the "first (older) generation" are not represented in media and the "second generation" has no possibilities to make its views known.

0945 GMT: Power Outage. Ebrahim Jamili of the Iran Chamber of Commerce has demanded that the Ministry of Energy pay for the heavy losses of private companies due to power shortages. He noted that Iran's claims to be the leading power in the region do not fit with "putting production in chains".

0940 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). More counter-attacks against the Government and media seen as its supporters....

Tehran Emrooz claims that insults against Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, in demonstrations in front of the Majlis, were instigated by editors of Hemmat magazine. Tehran Emrooz adds that some of those editors were arrested recently after attacking Hashemi Rafsanjani, senior clerics, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

Azam Taleghani, former MP and head of the Society of Islamic Revolution Women of Iran, has said that some hardliners have finally realised they cannot continue without co-operation with reformists.

Leading MP and Government critic Ahmad Tavakoli is reportedly gathering votes against a Government order that all governmental advertisements are given to the daily newspaper Iran.

0935 GMT: The Zahedan Bombings. With the toll from last Thursday's double suicide bombing at 27 dead and 311 injured, Abbas Ali Noura, one of three MPs from the Zahedan area who have resigned, says that people of the area expect the dismissal of the Minister of Interior.

0924 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Hassan Ghafourifard has accused the Government of violating the principles of the Constitution by not presenting its legal decisions on the budget, saying the Majlis will not approve the economic plan if these decisions are not presented. MP Shahabeddin Sadr adds that the claims of the President's office are untrue, and the Parliament has not received the decisions.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani adds in a letter to Ahmadinejad that payments to managers of Free Trade zones are illegal.

0920 GMT: Shifting Politics. An intriguing story in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani....

Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf has reportedly started his campaign for the next Presidential elections, due in 2013. The kick-off was in Zanjan and --- here's a twist --- it was staged by a committee of "reformist" hardliners.

Now is Khabar implicitly backing Qalibaf and this notion of "reformist hardliners" --- as an alternative to the not-so-reformist hardliner who is currently President --- or damning Qalibaf through such an association?

0915 GMT: The Nuclear Scientist/Non-Scientist Defection/Abduction Story. Rooz Online, from an "informed source", claims Shahram Amiri is being held in security quarantine after his return to Iran from the US.

0900 GMT: Not-at-All Hypocritical Headline of Day. Press TV: "Iran Slams Canada on Human Rights".

But it gets "better" in the body of the story, which is the continuation of an Iranian campaign against Ottawa over its handlings of protests at the G20 summit earlier this month:

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, "Canadian officials should provide a response to all questions and ambiguities regarding human rights violations in their country."

"Such instances of brutal and deadly approach by the Canadian police, the interference of security forces in the private lives of citizens and violations of rights of the native people have recurrently happened during this Canadian administration," Mehmanparast noted.

The Iranian spokesperson went on to criticize Canada for its illegal and brutal approach toward protestors during a recent summit in Toronto, arguing that "The issue of human rights is an international commitment and countries should not brush aside such matters by resorting to political justifications."...

"Repeated violations of citizenship rights and assaults against protesters are not an issue that one can keep silent on," he further stressed.

0750 GMT: We have now posted an analysis by Mr Verde, "Voices Raised --- Removing the Supreme Leader".

0625 GMT: Labour Watch. HRANA summarises regime pressure on unionists, from the retrial of Mansur Osanloo to other detentions and intimidations.

0555 GMT: We begin this morning with two pointed critiques of "legitimacy".

Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained 13 months ago, appeared in court yesterday. A copy of the full text of his statement has been brought out and published: it is a rousing denuncation of those who have crushed "democracy", "free elections", "human rights" and the "republic", and it pays special attention to one man. "Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has trampled the Constitution."

It is unknown whether Saharkhiz was able to read the statement in court, but we do have a picture as he left:



Prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam cannot be quite so direct in his criticisms --- after all, he is a public figure who is not detained --- but his latest interview is still pretty sharp. He points to a "brain drain" and division of clergy in governmental and non-governmental roles. The power of legal forces like Parliament and the judiciary has been diminished, while the power of "irresponsible forces" on the rise.

And Zibakalam considers that the worst result of the post-election dispute has been an irreversible collapse of legitimacy, asking, "Is it possible to bring people back to vote?"