The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2120 GMT: Back to our lead story today....

Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has picked up on the Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, "Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth".

We are still trying to get to the bottom of whether the fatwa was genuine but has been pulled back from prominence, whether it was released prematurely, or whether it is the outcome of a far-from-ordinary rift within the establishment (to the point of being "disinformation").

We will have a fresh analysis in the morning. Snapshot? Whether the fatwa is genuine or now suspect, the episode does not bode well for Ayatollah Khamenei.

NEW Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
NEW Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
Iran & Sanctions: “All Major Pakistani Banks Refuse Transactions” (Shah)
Iran Follow-Up: Dealing with the Media’s “War, War, War” Drumbeat
Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei “I am the Rule of the Prophet”

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Akbar Karami, a noted religious scholar, has been released on bail.

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, has had his first prison visit in more than three months. Ali Tavakoli, Majid's brother, said that he was allowed to see his brother for 10 minutes from behind a booth.

Ali Tavakoli said Majid's physical appearance was better than before and that he was in excellent spirits.

Majid Tavakoli is serving an 8 1/2-year sentence.

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has warned about rising prices before Ramadan in August and said the Bazaar must control those prices without reliance on more imports.

Kavakebian also said that the sale of 18% of the auto company Saipa --- officially going to employees, unofficially rumoured to a firm associated with the Revolutionary Guard --- will suffer the same fate as the privatisation of Iran Telecom.

1440 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Document. Arshama3's Blog has re-posted and offered a quick assessment of the leaked document setting out Islamic Revolution Guards Corps procedures for monitoring the Iranian opposition.

1435 GMT: The Clerical Front. Four senior clerics, asked about "teacher-centred lectures", have responded by rejecting the concept and declaring that the seminary must remain independent.

1430 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Hamshahri alleges that Iran is exporting cheap power to the Herat area in western Afghanistan while the domestic industry and facilities are damaged. The newspaper claims Afghans have made a profit of $2 million while Iran has lost that amount.

1415 GMT: Economic Non-Data. Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, has again declined to publish the country's rate of growth.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Vismeh has been released from detention.

1355 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz writes that more associates of the Fatemi Street insurance fraud have been summoned to court.

1345 GMT: After the Bombings. MP Zohreh Elahyian, a member of the National Security Council, has said that more control of foreign residents is planned. She blamed problems in border regions on Mossad and CIA "with their dollars".

Elahyian said, "We have full control in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, but this incident proves the long-term planning of the enemy."

1314 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Trade and shipping source say the owner of a gasoline tanker, believed to be the Libyan-flagged Lia, has refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey.

1310 GMT: Parliament v. President. Is it reconcilation time? There has been a meeting of Government and Majlis representatives after the 20-day vacation of Parliament, and the Government is reportedly sending the legal decisions on its budget and legislation to the Majlis next week.

1305 GMT: Another Bust-Up in the Establishment. Aftab News publishes what appears to be a dramatic story of more tensions between the Government and "hardliners". The President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai reportedly claims that Ahmadinejad said Rahim-Mashi would be targeted as a "kafaar" (infidel) within a year. In particular, there would be problems with Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Kayhan. Rahim-Mashai is quoted, "To Shariatmadari, I'm no Muslim but a spy, monafegh (heretic), and member of the violet coup."

1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa. We find ourselves caught up in an increasingly murky story over the appearance of the Supreme Leader's fatwa on Tuesday. It is not appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's "official" sites. It is still up on Iranian Labor News Agency but not on Iran Students News Agency.

An EA correspondent, noting a similar case recently over another purported Khamenei fatwaagainst Motorola's mobile phones and other products because of the company's business with Israel, writes, "Something is fishy about these supposed fatwas....I am not really sure who is running these fatwas and why."

Meanwhile, sociologist Majid Mohammadi assesses the present fatwa and declares that it is a "gravestone on the rule of justice".

1240 GMT: The Guardians. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has been re-elected as head of the Guardian Council.

1105 GMT: Today's "Western Approach" Story. Now it's the British who are supposedly begging for talks. From Mehr News: "Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has twice rebuffed the British ambassador’s request for a meeting. On June 27, the British ambassador to Iran sent a letter to Khatami asking if a meeting could be scheduled, but Khatami did not reply to the letter. Later, the British Embassy sent a letter to him via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the cleric responded this time but said he did not want to meet the British ambassador."

Mehr does not offer the possible topics for this meeting, and it is unclear why the British would seek out Khatami, who has no official position in Iran's political hierarchy.

1048 GMT: At the Movies. From CNN:

A government-linked film studio in Iran plans to make a movie about the Iranian nuclear scientist who Iranian officials say was kidnapped by U.S. agents, state media reported Tuesday.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Sima Film production company has hired a group of film school graduates to write a script about Shahram Amiri. The head of the production company didn't say when the film would be ready.

1045 GMT: Travel Dip. Kalemeh reports that tourism to Iran has dropped 60%.

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. The Supreme Leader has repeated that the intelligence services of the US, Britain, and Israel are to blame for last week's suicide bombings in southeastern Iran: "One of the main goals of the enemies behind the terrorist attack in Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan was to create division and religious discord."

Ali Larijani, at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, declared that the US lacks the courage to strike Tehran: "Iran is ready for any possible incidents and is well aware of the ongoing developments in the region. If the US makes such a mistake, it will pay dearly."

1000 GMT: Mousavi Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, meeting professors in the Islamic Association of Teachers, has spoken about the Green media and the need to counter the propaganda of Iranian state outlets.

0955 GMT: The Khamenei Fatwa. An English translation of the Rah-e-Sabz article on the Supreme Leader's declaration has been posted: "For the first time, and openly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, in response to a religious letter, has placed himself officially on the saintly level of ‘all-qualified priest’, ‘deputy Imam at the time of the absence [of the 12th Imam]’, ‘the ruling branch of the Imams’, and ‘true all-time deputy to the Prophet’. He pointed out there shall be an absolute obedience to his governmental orders to reveal ‘full commitment to the Supreme Leader’."

0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch write in The Washington Post, "New Sanctions Crimp Iran's Shipping Business as Insurers Withhold Coverage".

Beyond noting the recent announcement by Lloyd's of London that it is halting coverage of gasoline imports to Iran, Erdbrink and Lynch quote Mohammad Ronaghi, the deputy manager of Iran's Sea Pars, "Iranian-flagged ships are facing problems all over the world as they currently have no insurance coverage because of the new sanctions. Basically, most ports will refuse them entry if they are not covered for possible damages."

The journalists also note the specific difficulties of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines while carrying this reassurance from its managing director, Mohammad Hussein Dajmar, "These sanctions have not affected us much. The world has many ports. We will sail to those nations that want to do business with us."

0900 GMT: The Push Against Ahmadinejad. The battle within the Iranian establishment is now getting some attention: Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has posted a lengthy overview, "Iranian Conservatives Unite In Bid To Undermine Ahmadinejad".

(A bit of illuminating background to the story. I spoke for about 30 minutes with Tait as he was researching the article. We initially discussed EA's "exclusive" on the discussions between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei over a move against the President.

Tait does not refer directly to the Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei talks --- it is difficult to do so without named sources --- but writes instead, with a link back to our article:

One report has even suggested that conservatives have met to plot a way of impeaching Ahmadinejad and remove him from office, although seasoned observers caution that such an outcome is unthinkable without Khamenei's approval -- which is thought unlikely.

As an unseasoned observer, I also told Tait that the discussions, even amongst high-ranking conservatives, had to win over the Supreme Leader: that is a key reason why Larijani and Co. were hoping to bring in senior clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani.)

0700 GMT: We've posted a quick follow-up note on the US-based media's insistence on hyping the possibility/probability of Israeli military action against Iran as fact rather than speculation.

0555 GMT: Let's start the morning with a bit of perspective.

Tuesday's big story was not the supposed US approach to Tehran for discussions --- which was at most a request by Senator John Kerry to come to Iran and which may or may not have been true and may or may not have been whipped up by Iranian state media.

Tuesday's big story was not a possible Israeli military strike against Iran, which for now exists more on the keyboards of feverish "analysts" who --- from hysteria, speculation, ingenuity, or simple desire for such a strike --- than in any plans in West Jerusalem and Washington.

Tuesday's big story was not Iran's five-point plan for Afghanistan, unfurled at the Kabul Summit by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as an attempted sign of Tehran's influence in Central Asia and a counter to Western attention to sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

Tuesday's big story was the surprise and then confusion over the Supreme Leader's grab for authority through his fatwa linking his rule to that of the Imams and even Prophet Mohammad. What is the significance? Mr Verde assesses in a special analysis for EA.

Comments

[The fatwa of ‘Imam&#8217]

[...] Sabz for instance brought an article of which you can read the English translation here.source: Enduring America   کلیدواژه ها: fatwa, Khamenei, velayat-e faqih google_ad_client = [...]

[Catherine]

More on Hossein Shariatmadari's lengthy July 19 editorial in Khayan in which he lashed out at merchants in Tehran’s bazaar who supported strikes in the wake of proposed tax hikes:
http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/kayhan-tries-to-threaten-bazaar-as-government%25E2%2580%2599s-next-target/" rel="nofollow">http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/kayhan...

[Catherine]

Narges Mohammadi's husband relates the details of her arrest and treatment in prison:
My Wife's Prison Experience
http://www.roozonline.com/english/opinion/opinion-article/article/2010/july/19//my-husbands-prison-experience-narges-mohammadi.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/opinion/opini...

[Catherine]

Detailed report on Newsweek, in consultation with human-rights groups, that highlights eight other problematic cases involving inmates on death row in Iran:
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/20/8-other-pending-executions-in-iran.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/20/8-other-pend...

[Catherine]

Reza Rafiei Foroushani: Ministry of Intelligence, IRIB and Judge Salavati Collude to Conceal the Truth

In a long and moving open letter addressed to Ayatollah Larijani, head of the Judiciary, freelance journalist Reza Rafiei Forushani has disclosed the incidents he has experienced during his detention and since June 2009.

Short summary in English and link to full Persian original text:
http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=5701" rel="nofollow">http://www.rhairan.us/en/?p=5701

[Catherine]

Majlis is Kept in Dark of Administration’s Agreements and Decrees
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/july/21//majlis-is-kept-in-dark-of-administrations-agreements-and-decrees.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...

[Arshama]

@ 1048 GMT: At the Movies

With 80% of Iranians boycotting national TV programmes and 30 cinemas shut down in Tehran, this film project is another example of the IR's huge "cultural" achievements! Peyke Iran has the pictures of the cinemas: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19459" rel="nofollow">http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=19459

[Arshama]

@ 0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch

The owner of a gasoline tanker refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey earlier in July, trade and shipping sources said on Wednesday:
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE66K2PP20100721?sp=true" rel="nofollow">http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE...

[Arshama]

@ 1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa

Imho two different explanations are feasible:
1) the fartwa is an attempt to test the "red lines" within the IR. In this case Khamenei must have received strong warnings from the clergy (obviously underhand) to take it back - not only for domestic reasons, but especially in view of the Arab (Sunni) world, which is already highly concerned about the IR's boastings. Such a claim may also cause huge problems with other Muslim states: after all only 10 to 13% of 1.57 billion Muslims of the world are Shiites: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Islam" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Islam
2) the fartwa is a fake by his opponents: AN, Mesbah Yazdi or anyone, who has enough influence to launch such a news.

In the first case this experiment has failed, in the second it has helped to further weaken the "Fuehrer". In both cases it will heat up international and regional concerns and domestic conflicts.

[Arshama]

@ 1345 GMT: After the Bombings

Assessing the Zahedan bombings, Green correspondent Reza Ahvazi jibes at the usual IR stance, blaming others for its failures: For 30 years the "US can't do a damn'd thing", but it is responsible for all mischiefs in Iran! http://www.greencorrespondents.com/2010/07/blog-post_4020.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.greencorrespondents.com/2010/07/blog...

[Bijan77]

Has anyone seen any "responses" to the fatwa yet? Specifically from Islamic scholars, marjae, etc?

[Arshama]

Bijan,

Islamic scholars remain silent -- after all "Eslam dar khatara" (Islam, read: our positions and profits, are in danger). But Nushabeh Amiri has asked all hardliners to end their show in Majlis, ministries and Expediency Council, because they aren't needed anymore: http://www.roozonline.com/persian/opinion/opinion-article/article/2010/july/21//-1c383c2e32.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/persian/opinion/opini...
Brave woman!

[Arshama]

Earthquake Watch

Blogger Etemad writes that the situation of Deh Payin near Lamerd reminded him of Iraqi and Afghan war refugees, seeing women and children who lost their homes, sitting under a tree at 45 degrees, without any help of the government. He demands, if one of those caravans for Gaza could not be sent to Fars province? http://ehtemad.blogsky.com/1389/04/30/post-1/" rel="nofollow">http://ehtemad.blogsky.com/1389/04/30/post-1/

[Dale Andersen]

This is cool shit. If I were the 12th Imam, I'd wear chinos and a ducktail and insist that the chicks call me the "gangster of love."

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Obituary http://bit.ly/4Xcp8y" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/4Xcp8y

[Rgrassroots]

nothing new, he has simply reiterated the meaning of the velayat-e-faqih as originally articulated by the late Ayatullah Ruhullah Khumayni who stated that the obedience to the VF was on a par with obedience to God and His Prophet in line with the Koranic verse interpreted as such. The politically quietist ulama (or ostriches as I call them for they prefer to bury their heads in the sand rather than dirty their hands in the real world and seek to implement what they proclaim to believe in) have always had a problem with this. Khamanei is simply reiterating the same in response to a question posed to him by a follower. As usual you are making a story out of a non-story. Sometimes silence is the best policy as things become clearer. It is not always good to murky the water as you like doing here.

[The Latest from Iran (21 July)]

[...] more from the original source: The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled? | Enduring America // The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled? | Enduring America listing above has been [...]

[Catherine]

WitterKr,
I wonder if Obama is now regretting he didn't side with Biden's counter-terrorism approach to the war in Afghanistan instead of McChrystal's ambitious counter-insurgency plans.

[Baz]

Rgrassroots

"Ayatullah Ruhullah Khumayni who stated that the obedience to the VF was on a par with obedience to God and His Prophet in line with the Koranic verse interpreted as such."

In this system of velayat-e-faqih, WHO is it that must be obedient to the SL? I note that there is something called the "Islamic Revolution" which ushered in this system - so I expect that it means that ALL Muslims must be obedient to the Sl, as they would be to God and His Prophet? Is my understanding correct??

Barry

[wdavit]

"fartwa" knowing you I think the "fart" reference was intentional and was brilliant!!!! Nothing like a good fart joke to start of the day. One wonders if the Supreme Poo Poo had a bad case of gas when he wrote this fartwa!

thx
Bill

[Bijan77]

Good point. Thank you for the article.

[Arshama]

Bill,

Thank you, but my English is not that good, alas! I confess to have "stolen" this expression from #iranelection on Twitter ;-)

Regards
Arshama

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