The Latest from Iran (30 July): Stepping Up the Criticism

2135 GMT: Political Prison Experience. Reza Rafii-Forushan, an Iranian stringer for Time magazine, has written an open letter appealing against his "frame-up" by Iranian authorities and complaining about abuses in prison.

Rafii-Forushan was arrested on 27 June 2009 and held for 43 days in solitary confinement during his interrogation.

2130 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Arshama3's Blog lists the individuals, institutions, and companies subjected to new sanctions by the European Union.

1915 GMT: Going after Jannati. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has joined Mehdi Karroubi's attack on Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry), demanding that Jannati “clarify how and when he has secured...documents" that allegedly show a US-Saudi $50 billion plot for regime change. They question, "How can an individual that does not refrain from committing the biggest sins, be in charge of two positions that have justice as their first criterion?"

This, however, may be the most intriguing sentence: "Has he made these revelations with the authority of the relevant officials?” EA sources indicate that, because Jannati is seen as being close to the Supreme Leader, the criticism of him is an indirect challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei's authority.

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The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1910 GMT: Containing the Cleric. It is being reported that Molana Abdolhamid, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader of Zahedan, has been barred from leaving country and his passport has been confiscated.

1830 GMT: Poster of the Day. Courtesy of the Iranian Government, "A Woman without Hijab is like a Chair with Three Legs".



1800 GMT: Client and Lawyer Watch. The Guardian of London has a lengthy profile of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman sentenced to death for adultery (on the basis, the article claims, of a 3-2 decision amongst the judges), who has sent a message from inside Tabriz Prison.

Deep in the article is this sentence about Mohammad Mostafaei, Ashtiani's lawyer, who is hiding after authorities tried to detain him and arrested his wife and brother-in-law: "The Guardian has learned that Mostafaei is safe for the moment and plans to publish an open letter to Tehran's prosecutor."

1730 GMT: Larijani Watch. Today's claim of "strong Iran leader" by Ali Larijani comes in the pages of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Stressing that Iran's motives in the Middle East, as it does not seek an empire, Larijani declared, "If the Zionist regime bullies Palestine we will stand against it, and if it decides to attack Lebanon Hezbollah will confront it."

As for uranium and sanctions, Larijani emphasised Iran's pursuit of peaceful nuclear capability: "When the US questions why Iran has nuclear and missile technology it is because [it is unhappy that] we have the ability to obtain such technologies.....Had we been producing fruit juice, mineral water, and tomato paste, it (the US) would never have raised an objection....They claim that Iran has nuclear weapons, but they never say [a word about] the Zionist regime, which is their friend [and] possesses nukes."

1645 GMT: Do Not Panic. Might be worth noting this reference from Mehr News to Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer: "He...called on people who have deposited their money in foreign banks to return their funds to Iran."

1620 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Back from a break to find a far-from-unexpected tweak in the sanctions tale. The Chinese Government has said that it does not approve of new sanctions imposed by the European Union while welcoming Tehran's offer to return to negotiations on uranium enrichment.

A Foreign Ministry statement declared, "China does not approve of the European Union's unilateral sanctions on Iran. We hope that all relevant parties can support a diplomatic solution and appropriately resolve the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations."

1300 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Update. Have to be honest, it's hard working up enthusiasm over Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Tehran Friday Prayer.

The cleric called for Iranian cohesion --- political, economic, and cultural --- in the face of sanctions. However, any white-hot rhetoric seemed to be cooled by the Iranian Government's indications this week that it would enter discussions, even with the "enemy", over its uranium enrichment programme. (Earlier on Friday, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said it was "out of the question for Iran to promise never to enrich uranium" but said the move for 20% enriched uranium could be suspended if talks were held.)

That left Emami Kashani's defiance with the line that the great Iranian nation would not need "outside help" to produce the necessary uranium for civilian purposes.

1255 GMT: Mahmoud's University Push. Hmm, I get the feeling that the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, supposedly resolved by the Supreme Leader's intervention, could flare up again....

Speaking to a student organisation, President Ahmadinejad warned that "enemies" are trying to create space for their activities within Iran's universities.

1215 GMT: Conspiracy Theory Update. First it was President Ahmadinejad with warnings of an imminent American strike on two Arab countries allied with Tehran , then it was Ayatollah Jannati, the leader of the Guardian Council with revelations of the US-Saudi $50 billion "regime change" scheme, now it's the "nuclear-pig-blood cigarette plot".

Mohammad Reza Madani from the Society for Fighting Smoking said contraband Marlboros, part of the 20 billion cigarettes smuggled into Iran each year,  have been contaminated with pig hemoglobin and unspecified nuclear material.

Madani claimed Philip Morris International, which sells Marlboro outside the US, is "led by Zionists" and deliberately exports tainted cigarettes.

1055 GMT: Mousavi's 1988 Resignation Letter. Mr Verde stops by to discuss Mir Hossein Mousavi's letter of resignation as Prime Minister, reprinted yesterday on the website of former President Abolhassan Banisadr:

The letter in general accuses Ayatollah Khamenei, who was President in 1988, of meddling in affairs which are not directly his responsibility. This is similar to the accusations about his current activity as the Supreme Leader. It also shows the internal workings of the Islamic Republic to be chaotic and haphazard.

Point 2 of the letter talks about “external operations” and lists: a plane hijacking, a shooting in a Lebanese street, and discovery of explosives on Iranian hajj pilgrims. It says that these operations are disastrous for the country and could be repeated any moment.
The tone of the letter is suggesting that all of these are carried out by the Islamic Republic's officials and that Khamenei is involved in them, although it says that the Prime Minister [Mousavi] is in the dark about it.

These accusations are not coming from regime opponents or foreign governments. They are coming from the Islamic Republic's Prime Minister.

1. Mousavi is accusing Khamenei, as President, of being involved in terrorist activity overseas. This could be used to embarrass Khamenei further, placing the activity next to the actions of the Islamic Republic after Khamenei became Supreme Leader, e.g. Chain Murders, attacks on student dormitories, street killings, prison rapes, etc.

2. The letter suggests that the Islamic Republic was regularly involved in terrorist activity overseas, an allegation which could be damaging to the current regime .

Will Mousavi confirm this, deny this, or, as he had for 22 years since the letter was first leaked, ignore this?

What will Khamenei’s side do? Will they “leak” letters and information which would counter this letter? If they play the card of Ayatollah Khomeini, then Supreme Leader, it would mean tha,t despite his best efforts, Kahmenei has again have been forced to hide behind Khomeini.

Although the current intra-regime arguments started with the dispute over the 2009 presidential elections, this episode has the potential to cause trouble well beyond that. One can't help get the feeling that events --- in this case but not only in this case --- may spiral out of control.

1040 GMT: EA's Hot Tips of Day. Based on information from sources:

1. Discussions earlier this month between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei on action against the President --- which we covered on EA --- have been followed by several meetings between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

2. The Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa followed a visit to Qom, and specifically to Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi, by member of Ayatollah Khamenei's office. Makarem-Shirazi said he could not support a unilateral declaration by the Supreme Leader but he could accept a declaration framed as an answer to a question from a follower. The question and answer followed two or three days later.

0945 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the music video, "Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone!", which has just won an award in Britain, including an interview with the members of the Iranian band, Blurred Vision.

The Independent of London has also posted an interview with the band members.

0815 GMT: Talking Tough. Hojatoleslam Mojtaba Zolnour, the representative of the Supreme Leader in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, grabs the spotlight with the warning that there should be action against Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Zolnour said Tehran would "act correspondingly" if its ships were challenged. He added, "Sanctions will backfire and have grave consequences for [these countries]."

0610 GMT: Watching Karroubi (and the Reaction to Karroubi). We're keeping eyes open for the reaction to Mehdi Karroubi's open letter to Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council (posted in a separate entry). To call this a "criticism" is a major understatement: Karroubi is effectively accusing one of Iran's leading political and religious figures of being --- at the least --- an accomplice to election fraud and Government repression.

0600 GMT: We start today with a focus on human rights, specifically the regime's attempt to limit or even prevent the defence of them. Josh Shahryar offers a feature on the Government's pursuit of lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who is missing as his wife and brother-in-law sit in prison.

Mostafaei's colleague Shadi Sadr, who was forced into exile by the regime, has written to the Iranian Bar Association:

It appears that the legal-security system, while forced to stop carrying out the stoning sentence [against Mostafaei's client Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani], is hell bent on taking revenge on Mr Mostafaei by some trumped-up charges. Since they were unable to find him, they have arrested his wife and brother-in-law....

This is not the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the family of a civil activist have been taken hostage. The policy of oppression of activists by pressurising their family members by different forms, from threatening them to extracting "confessions" by torture, has been used brutally in the past few years. In one of the recent cases, the husband of Mrs Shirin Ebadi, a member of the Bar Association of Iran, human rights activist and Nobel Laureate, was forced to speak against her on camera after several days of incarceration....

As a lawyer, a member of the Central Court lawyers, also as a client and defendant, I urge you, who lead this oldest civil law society in Iran, not to remain silent on state kidnap and retaliation....If we do not act against this policy, whose victims today are Shirin Ebadi and Mohammad Mostafaie, it will attack every single one of us tomorrow.

The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2120 GMT: Back to our lead story today....

Edward Yeranian of Voice of America has picked up on the Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa, "Iran's Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth".

We are still trying to get to the bottom of whether the fatwa was genuine but has been pulled back from prominence, whether it was released prematurely, or whether it is the outcome of a far-from-ordinary rift within the establishment (to the point of being "disinformation").

We will have a fresh analysis in the morning. Snapshot? Whether the fatwa is genuine or now suspect, the episode does not bode well for Ayatollah Khamenei.

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NEW Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verde)
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Iran Document: Isa Saharkhiz in Court “Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?” (18 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei “I am the Rule of the Prophet”

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Dr. Akbar Karami, a noted religious scholar, has been released on bail.

Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, has had his first prison visit in more than three months. Ali Tavakoli, Majid's brother, said that he was allowed to see his brother for 10 minutes from behind a booth.

Ali Tavakoli said Majid's physical appearance was better than before and that he was in excellent spirits.

Majid Tavakoli is serving an 8 1/2-year sentence.

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has warned about rising prices before Ramadan in August and said the Bazaar must control those prices without reliance on more imports.

Kavakebian also said that the sale of 18% of the auto company Saipa --- officially going to employees, unofficially rumoured to a firm associated with the Revolutionary Guard --- will suffer the same fate as the privatisation of Iran Telecom.

1440 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Document. Arshama3's Blog has re-posted and offered a quick assessment of the leaked document setting out Islamic Revolution Guards Corps procedures for monitoring the Iranian opposition.

1435 GMT: The Clerical Front. Four senior clerics, asked about "teacher-centred lectures", have responded by rejecting the concept and declaring that the seminary must remain independent.

1430 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Hamshahri alleges that Iran is exporting cheap power to the Herat area in western Afghanistan while the domestic industry and facilities are damaged. The newspaper claims Afghans have made a profit of $2 million while Iran has lost that amount.

1415 GMT: Economic Non-Data. Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, has again declined to publish the country's rate of growth.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Vismeh has been released from detention.

1355 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz writes that more associates of the Fatemi Street insurance fraud have been summoned to court.

1345 GMT: After the Bombings. MP Zohreh Elahyian, a member of the National Security Council, has said that more control of foreign residents is planned. She blamed problems in border regions on Mossad and CIA "with their dollars".

Elahyian said, "We have full control in the Sistan and Baluchistan region, but this incident proves the long-term planning of the enemy."

1314 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Trade and shipping source say the owner of a gasoline tanker, believed to be the Libyan-flagged Lia, has refused to allow the vessel to sail to Iran from Turkey.

1310 GMT: Parliament v. President. Is it reconcilation time? There has been a meeting of Government and Majlis representatives after the 20-day vacation of Parliament, and the Government is reportedly sending the legal decisions on its budget and legislation to the Majlis next week.

1305 GMT: Another Bust-Up in the Establishment. Aftab News publishes what appears to be a dramatic story of more tensions between the Government and "hardliners". The President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai reportedly claims that Ahmadinejad said Rahim-Mashi would be targeted as a "kafaar" (infidel) within a year. In particular, there would be problems with Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of Kayhan. Rahim-Mashai is quoted, "To Shariatmadari, I'm no Muslim but a spy, monafegh (heretic), and member of the violet coup."

1250 GMT: The Mystery of the Fatwa. We find ourselves caught up in an increasingly murky story over the appearance of the Supreme Leader's fatwa on Tuesday. It is not appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's "official" sites. It is still up on Iranian Labor News Agency but not on Iran Students News Agency.

An EA correspondent, noting a similar case recently over another purported Khamenei fatwaagainst Motorola's mobile phones and other products because of the company's business with Israel, writes, "Something is fishy about these supposed fatwas....I am not really sure who is running these fatwas and why."

Meanwhile, sociologist Majid Mohammadi assesses the present fatwa and declares that it is a "gravestone on the rule of justice".

1240 GMT: The Guardians. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has been re-elected as head of the Guardian Council.

1105 GMT: Today's "Western Approach" Story. Now it's the British who are supposedly begging for talks. From Mehr News: "Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has twice rebuffed the British ambassador’s request for a meeting. On June 27, the British ambassador to Iran sent a letter to Khatami asking if a meeting could be scheduled, but Khatami did not reply to the letter. Later, the British Embassy sent a letter to him via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the cleric responded this time but said he did not want to meet the British ambassador."

Mehr does not offer the possible topics for this meeting, and it is unclear why the British would seek out Khatami, who has no official position in Iran's political hierarchy.

1048 GMT: At the Movies. From CNN:

A government-linked film studio in Iran plans to make a movie about the Iranian nuclear scientist who Iranian officials say was kidnapped by U.S. agents, state media reported Tuesday.

According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, Sima Film production company has hired a group of film school graduates to write a script about Shahram Amiri. The head of the production company didn't say when the film would be ready.

1045 GMT: Travel Dip. Kalemeh reports that tourism to Iran has dropped 60%.

1030 GMT: Talking Tough. The Supreme Leader has repeated that the intelligence services of the US, Britain, and Israel are to blame for last week's suicide bombings in southeastern Iran: "One of the main goals of the enemies behind the terrorist attack in Iran's southeastern city of Zahedan was to create division and religious discord."

Ali Larijani, at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva, declared that the US lacks the courage to strike Tehran: "Iran is ready for any possible incidents and is well aware of the ongoing developments in the region. If the US makes such a mistake, it will pay dearly."

1000 GMT: Mousavi Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, meeting professors in the Islamic Association of Teachers, has spoken about the Green media and the need to counter the propaganda of Iranian state outlets.

0955 GMT: The Khamenei Fatwa. An English translation of the Rah-e-Sabz article on the Supreme Leader's declaration has been posted: "For the first time, and openly, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, in response to a religious letter, has placed himself officially on the saintly level of ‘all-qualified priest’, ‘deputy Imam at the time of the absence [of the 12th Imam]’, ‘the ruling branch of the Imams’, and ‘true all-time deputy to the Prophet’. He pointed out there shall be an absolute obedience to his governmental orders to reveal ‘full commitment to the Supreme Leader’."

0945 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Thomas Erdbrink and Colum Lynch write in The Washington Post, "New Sanctions Crimp Iran's Shipping Business as Insurers Withhold Coverage".

Beyond noting the recent announcement by Lloyd's of London that it is halting coverage of gasoline imports to Iran, Erdbrink and Lynch quote Mohammad Ronaghi, the deputy manager of Iran's Sea Pars, "Iranian-flagged ships are facing problems all over the world as they currently have no insurance coverage because of the new sanctions. Basically, most ports will refuse them entry if they are not covered for possible damages."

The journalists also note the specific difficulties of Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines while carrying this reassurance from its managing director, Mohammad Hussein Dajmar, "These sanctions have not affected us much. The world has many ports. We will sail to those nations that want to do business with us."

0900 GMT: The Push Against Ahmadinejad. The battle within the Iranian establishment is now getting some attention: Robert Tait of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has posted a lengthy overview, "Iranian Conservatives Unite In Bid To Undermine Ahmadinejad".

(A bit of illuminating background to the story. I spoke for about 30 minutes with Tait as he was researching the article. We initially discussed EA's "exclusive" on the discussions between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei over a move against the President.

Tait does not refer directly to the Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei talks --- it is difficult to do so without named sources --- but writes instead, with a link back to our article:

One report has even suggested that conservatives have met to plot a way of impeaching Ahmadinejad and remove him from office, although seasoned observers caution that such an outcome is unthinkable without Khamenei's approval -- which is thought unlikely.

As an unseasoned observer, I also told Tait that the discussions, even amongst high-ranking conservatives, had to win over the Supreme Leader: that is a key reason why Larijani and Co. were hoping to bring in senior clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani.)

0700 GMT: We've posted a quick follow-up note on the US-based media's insistence on hyping the possibility/probability of Israeli military action against Iran as fact rather than speculation.

0555 GMT: Let's start the morning with a bit of perspective.

Tuesday's big story was not the supposed US approach to Tehran for discussions --- which was at most a request by Senator John Kerry to come to Iran and which may or may not have been true and may or may not have been whipped up by Iranian state media.

Tuesday's big story was not a possible Israeli military strike against Iran, which for now exists more on the keyboards of feverish "analysts" who --- from hysteria, speculation, ingenuity, or simple desire for such a strike --- than in any plans in West Jerusalem and Washington.

Tuesday's big story was not Iran's five-point plan for Afghanistan, unfurled at the Kabul Summit by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as an attempted sign of Tehran's influence in Central Asia and a counter to Western attention to sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

Tuesday's big story was the surprise and then confusion over the Supreme Leader's grab for authority through his fatwa linking his rule to that of the Imams and even Prophet Mohammad. What is the significance? Mr Verde assesses in a special analysis for EA.