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Monday
Jul262010

The Latest from Iran (26 July): Behind the International Screen

2055 GMT: Moscow is Not Amused. Looks like President Ahmadinejad went too far in his shtick of "Russia is aiding and abetting the US-Israel plot to attack Arab allies of Iran".

The Russian Foreign Ministry has put out a statement, "For us the recent public statements of the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are categorically unacceptable....[They] distorted Russia's objective approach, our independent, constructive line towards the Iranian nuclear programme with the aim of finding a political and diplomatic resolution. We consider that instead of fruitless and irresponsible rhetoric, the Iranian leadership should take concrete, constructive steps towards the speediest regulation of the situation."

Iran Analysis: Re-Defining the Green Movement (Verde)
UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
The Latest from Iran (25 July): The Re-Appearing Fatwa


2000 GMT: Academic Corner. Sima, the student newspaper at Ferdowsi University, has been banned.

1915 GMT: "Khamenei Must Go" (cont. --- see 1115 GMT). Ahmad Ghabel, seminary lecturer and author, has followed up his recent criticism of the Supreme Leader with a statement that arrests have happened with the approval of Ayatollah Khamenei and "the Iranian people are free on bail".

1910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Canada has followed the European Union in imposing additional sanctions on Tehran, notably in the energy sector.

1630 GMT: The International Front. Forget the talking tough (see 1500 GMT): the theme today from Tehran is openness to discussions. Islamic News Republic Agency and Fars News are both highlighting the statement of Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear organisation, "The clear message of this letter [to the International Atomic Energy Agency] was Iran's complete readiness to hold negotiations over the fuel for the Tehran reactor without any conditions."

1500 GMT: Talking Tough Time. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has criticised the latest measures adopted by the European Union (see 1430 GMT), "Sanctions… will only complicate matters and move away [the parties] from mutual understanding."

Yeah, yeah, whatever (the Iranians are actually angling for talks, via contact with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Turkey and Brazil's mediation, with the EU on the uranium issue). If you want some macho fire-breathing, you have to go to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who reveals the Obama Administration is "one of lies":
You witnessed what they did to Palestinians; Israeli settlements in Palestine are expanding by the day and the Zionist regime destroys mosques and of course Gaza is still under siege....Americans wrongly perceive Lebanon as a toy but they should be more careful lest this toy severs their hand.

On the surface they condemn terrorism but behind the curtain they support terrorists… as it became clear, during [Jundullah ringleader Abdolmalek] Rigi's confessions, that he was linked to the US and NATO and they supported this terrorist cell.

1430 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The European Union has formally adopted a package of new sanctions against Iran, targeting foreign trade, banking, and energy.

1425 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reuters reports, from a shipping document, that only three cargoes of gasoline have so far reached Iran in July, far less than the seasonal norm, because of the pressure of sanctions.

Traditionally during the summer season, with people driving on holidays, Iran needs 11-13 cargoes a month.

The three cargoes this month and were supplied by Turkish refiner Tupras and the trading arm of China's Sinopec, Unipec. Another cargo is expected to arrive from Venezuela.

1150 GMT: Mousavi's Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in his most recent speech, has discussed the "untold story" of the war between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988.

1123 GMT: Revolutionary Guard in Control? Mehdi Karroubi, in an interview with BBC Persian, has declared that there is now an effective "monopoly" by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and the Basij militia in the country.

1120 GMT: Parliament v. President. Reformist MP Hojatoleslam Qodratollah Alikhani has complained about President Ahmadinejad's "joy" at US and UN sanctions, saying that he hopes this has not increased the prospect of war.

1115 GMT: "Khamenei Must Go". Noted Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush, now living in exile, has complemented recent calls --- from Mohsen Kadivar and Ahmad Ghabel outside the country and Isa Saharkhiz inside it --- for the Supreme Leader to step down.

1040 GMT: Rumour of Day. Parleman News claims that the Hojjatieh Society has formally applied for a licence.

Hojjatieh has provoked much comment and speculation since its founding as a semi-clandestine Shi'a organisation in 1953. It was forced to dissolve after a speech by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1983, but stories circulate that it is connected to President Ahmadinejad and other senior figures in the Iranian regime.

1035 GMT: Energy Squeeze? Deputy Minister of Oil Alireza Zeighami has said,"We need $46 billion to finish our refinery projects." The funds will contribute to new capacity for 5 billion litres of liquid fuel.

Some numbers for comparison: the $46 billion is more than 15 times the $3.1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in 2009 --- a number pushed by Iranian officials as a sign of the country's growth --- and 92 times the amount of the $500 million bond project announced today for the South Pars gas and oil field.

1015 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will visit Hamzeh Karami, the director of Jumhoriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, in hospital. Karami, detained soon after the June 2009 election, is in intensive care with a heart condition.

Last summer, Karami's "confession" in a televised trial in Tehran was used to implicate Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, in alleged fraud and misconduct over the election.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Agence France Presse has picked up the story --- noted in our updates yesterday --- that journalist Emad Baghi, detained in December 2009 and recently released on bail, has been given a one-year sentence and banned for five years from political activities from charges in a 2008 case.

1000 GMT: Reviewing the Supreme Leader. An entry on an Iranian blog puts forth supposed reaction from clerics in Qom to Ayatollah Khameini's fatwa, "I am the Rule of the Prophet".

0955 GMT: Picture of Day. Mir Hossein Mousavi meets reformist politician Mohsen Armin, recently released from detention on $200,000 bail:



0950 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Vice Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has reiterated that the Majlis will stand up to the Ahmadinejad Government, rejecting its implementation measures.

0945 GMT: Concessions to the Villagers? Kalemeh claims that a new Government directive removes limits on social security for Sunni residents in rural areas.

0935 GMT: Setting the Record Straight. Fereshteh Ghazi interviews the family of Mohammad-Hossein Feiz, shot dead in protests on 30 June 2009. They reveal that Feiz was not a Basij militiaman, as the regime claimed, but a demonstrator.

0930 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran Negah posts a video interview with a girl living in poverty in Tehran. She says, "God only helps rich people." (Persian2English has an English translation.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnT7xl5zYDM[/youtube]

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that student Vahid Asghari has had his nose and ribs broken in Bushehr Prison.

0920 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Members of Parliament are continuing to threaten impeachment of Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian over claims that imports are driving down rice prices received by Iranian farmers.

0800 GMT: Water Pressure. Amidst stories of impurities and shortages in Iran's water supply, Tehran's Yaft-Abad quarter has installed a temporary water filter.

0730 GMT: Music of Dissent. Shahin Najafi, an Iranian musician and poet now living in Germany, has released "Vay Koshte Maro", a song of protest against the current Government.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTrlthfbcHQ[/youtube]

0725 GMT: Parliament v. President. The influential member of Parliament, Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, has emphasised that "not all hardliners accepted the elimination of reformists" in the post-election conflict.

0720 GMT: The Saharkhiz Criticism. Persian2English has now posted the first part of journalist Isa Saharkhiz's statement in court --- featured on EA last week --- with its direct criticism of the Supreme Leader.

0715 GMT: No, No, Talk about the War. Press TV keeps up the Iranian state line, "Shameful Defeats Awaits US in 3rd War". The article features the Sunday comments of Brigadier General Masoud Jayazeri, “The United States, which has already suffered two heavy, disgraceful defeats against Hezbollah and Hamas in the region, can start a new war with a third country to endure another defeat.”

0710 GMT: So what is happening inside Iran? Credit to two "Western" outlets for stories that defy the trend of Nukes and War.

The Los Angeles Times posts a summary of "New Series of Attacks on Members of the Bahai Faith in Iran".

The Guardian of London picks up on the story --- reported in our updates yesterday --- of the disappearance of prominent human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei and the arrest of his wife and brother-in-law. Mostafaei represents Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman whose death sentence for adultery has provoked international criticism of Tehran.

0630 GMT: The lead stories in the media this morning on Iran are far from what is happening inside Tehran.

From the Iranian Government's point of view, the weekend's meeting between the Turkish, Brazilian, and Iranian Foreign Ministers is the platform to focus attention on the uranium enrichment issue. Paralleling the rhetoric denouncing the West, notably in the speeches of President Ahmadinejad, the possibility of renewed discussions --- raised by Iran's statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency today --- comes to the fore. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, says, "The Tehran nuclear declaration on a possible nuclear fuel swap is a good base for the sides to build confidence. Iran has prepared its response to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Vienna group which will be sent within the next two or three days."

And from the US --- not from the Government, I hasten to add, but from the chattering classes --- the topic is not resolution but war. CNN's Sunday interview with Michael Hayden, the head of the CIA in the Bush Administration, is the latest pretext to take speculation from someone far from the centre of developments and turn into a Most Important Prediction.

Indeed, there is a convenient symmetry here. On one side, those who desire regime change in Iran can do so with little reference to politics, society, religion, or any other matter inside the country --- it's always and only the spectral "imminent threat" that is featured. On the other, those who support the Iranian Government --- irrespective of what it does inside the country --- can avoid troubling themselves with human rights, justice, and legitimacy. Instead, they can raise the speculative and unsupported to a clear-and-present danger and argue that the avoidance of a US-Iran war takes priority.
Monday
Jul192010

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Criticisms and the Leader

1845 GMT: Academic Corner. A follow-up to our stories that 30 Tehran University professors were being "retired", ostensibly because they had completed their period of service....

Professor Rouhollah Alami said he suddenly received news about his dismissal from Tehran University officials. He had been at the university for 22 years but had 14 years left to retirement.

1735 GMT: Pressing the Government. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari has noted, "Apparently some ministers have 'special immunity'," since the Minister of Interior, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, did not reply to his question from April and did not appear even once in the Majlis.

1725 GMT: After the Bombings. Iran has closed the Taftan post on the Pakistan border, about 55 miles southeast of Zahedan, the site of last Thursday's double suicide bombing. Reports indicated this has caused significant supply problems for inhabitants.

NEW Iran’s Made-Up Stories: Fars News Busted by “Zionist” Journalist Ghazi
NEW Iran Analysis: Voices Raised — Removing the Supreme Leader (Verde)
Iran’s New Guidance: Good, Good Lovin’ (But Only at Night)
Change for Iran: Why Twitter Has Made a Difference
The Latest from Iran (18 July): Bazaar Resolutions?


1640 GMT: Reformist Rift? MP Ahmadreza Dastgheib of the Imam Khomeini Line has blamed reformists, especially non-academics, for not spreading their ideas throughout society. Dastgheib said that "we" should have explained our theories to all sectors of society but that this is obviously impossible today.

The MP added that a "big mistake" was that former President Mohammad Khatami, given his recognition in Iran, did not run for the presidency in 200.

1625 GMT: Pictures of the Day (2). Mehr News, which is far from an anti-Government site, posts a series of photographs illustrating the effect of power outages on Iranian industry:



1620 GMT: Picture of the Day. Filmmakers Mohammad Nourizad and Jafar Panahi are reunited. Both were released this spring on bail, Nourizad after six months in detention, Panahi after three.


1500 GMT: Challenging the Supreme Leader. Fereshteh Ghazi offers an analysis of journalist Isa Saharkhiz's statement in court --- covered in our opening update (0555 GMT) and a separate analysis --- refusing to offer a defence and challenging the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei.

1455 GMT: Watching Larijani. OK, here's what Larijani said publicly today in Geneva after his meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon: "We need a new plan [on Tehran's nuclear programme] in which Iran's rights are completely supported....The problems of Iraq and of Afghanistan after occupation, which have caused an increase in the production of illicit drugs and led to the spread of terrorism, are the result of wrongful US policies and actions. “

Yeah, yeah. But what did Larijani say in private?

1450 GMT: We've posted a feature in which Fereshteh Ghazi exposes the made-up news of Fars and gets called a "Zionist" for her efforts.

1340 GMT: Sanctions Front. The Wall Street Journal, citing "Western officials", targets the European-Iranian Trade Bank AG (EIH) for helping Iran to get around international sanctions.

The officials allege that EIH has been "conducting euro-denominated transactions on behalf of Iran's Bank Sepah", involving business with Iran's Defense Industries Organization, the Aerospace Industries Organization and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

The newspaper also carries an interview with India's petroleum secretary, who says "the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Iran could complicate the activities of Indian state-controlled companies that are looking to invest in Iran's oil and gas sector".

Elsewhere, a memorandum, signed by Turkish Public Works & Housing Minister Mustafa Demir and Iranian Minister of Housing & Development Ali Nikzad in Tehran, envisages cooperation in the construction sector. The memorandum commits to exchange of information and experience, cooperation in public housing projects, research and training of experts, production of construction materials, and use of products of latest technology.

1335 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has given a lengthy interview about her views on the political and legal situation. Amidst that discussion, she reiterated that her father would not return to lead Tehran Friday Prayers until there was political reconciliation. (Rafsanjani's last Friday Prayer was 17 July 2009.)

In another passage of the interview, Hashemi rebutted charges that she was accumulating private wealth: "I am a normal woman. My husband provides for me and I have no income."

1215 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? In a speech broadcast on state TV, President Ahmadinejad told industrialists in northern Iran, "[The US] adopts a resolution to force a dialogue, but this cowboy logic has no place in Iran."

Ahmadinejad continued with the defiance, "They say we have intelligence that Iranians will most likely build one atomic bomb. Well, this is a lie, but let's say it is true. How many atomic bombs do you have? The Americans themselves say 5,000 plus....Is someone who has 5,000 fourth and fifth generation atomic bombs, with very advanced launchers, afraid of one bomb? They are not afraid of one, not of a hundred, not of a thousand (bombs). They are afraid of the collective awakening of the Iranian soul."

Yet --- and forgive me if I am reading too much into Mahmoud's rhetoric --- there may have been a glimpse that Ahmadinejad would like to get back to last autumn's discussions: "We are for negotiations, but to do so you have to sit down like a good boy."

1050 GMT: Claim of Day. An Iranian cleric explains, "We have made swimming pools and Jacuzzis in Evin for prisoners."

0950 GMT: Iran's Networks. Dr. Gholamreza Kashi, speaking in a conference about social networks and identity at Iran's Strategic Center, has said that the "first (older) generation" are not represented in media and the "second generation" has no possibilities to make its views known.

0945 GMT: Power Outage. Ebrahim Jamili of the Iran Chamber of Commerce has demanded that the Ministry of Energy pay for the heavy losses of private companies due to power shortages. He noted that Iran's claims to be the leading power in the region do not fit with "putting production in chains".

0940 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). More counter-attacks against the Government and media seen as its supporters....

Tehran Emrooz claims that insults against Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, in demonstrations in front of the Majlis, were instigated by editors of Hemmat magazine. Tehran Emrooz adds that some of those editors were arrested recently after attacking Hashemi Rafsanjani, senior clerics, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

Azam Taleghani, former MP and head of the Society of Islamic Revolution Women of Iran, has said that some hardliners have finally realised they cannot continue without co-operation with reformists.

Leading MP and Government critic Ahmad Tavakoli is reportedly gathering votes against a Government order that all governmental advertisements are given to the daily newspaper Iran.

0935 GMT: The Zahedan Bombings. With the toll from last Thursday's double suicide bombing at 27 dead and 311 injured, Abbas Ali Noura, one of three MPs from the Zahedan area who have resigned, says that people of the area expect the dismissal of the Minister of Interior.

0924 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Hassan Ghafourifard has accused the Government of violating the principles of the Constitution by not presenting its legal decisions on the budget, saying the Majlis will not approve the economic plan if these decisions are not presented. MP Shahabeddin Sadr adds that the claims of the President's office are untrue, and the Parliament has not received the decisions.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani adds in a letter to Ahmadinejad that payments to managers of Free Trade zones are illegal.

0920 GMT: Shifting Politics. An intriguing story in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani....

Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf has reportedly started his campaign for the next Presidential elections, due in 2013. The kick-off was in Zanjan and --- here's a twist --- it was staged by a committee of "reformist" hardliners.

Now is Khabar implicitly backing Qalibaf and this notion of "reformist hardliners" --- as an alternative to the not-so-reformist hardliner who is currently President --- or damning Qalibaf through such an association?

0915 GMT: The Nuclear Scientist/Non-Scientist Defection/Abduction Story. Rooz Online, from an "informed source", claims Shahram Amiri is being held in security quarantine after his return to Iran from the US.

0900 GMT: Not-at-All Hypocritical Headline of Day. Press TV: "Iran Slams Canada on Human Rights".

But it gets "better" in the body of the story, which is the continuation of an Iranian campaign against Ottawa over its handlings of protests at the G20 summit earlier this month:
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, "Canadian officials should provide a response to all questions and ambiguities regarding human rights violations in their country."

"Such instances of brutal and deadly approach by the Canadian police, the interference of security forces in the private lives of citizens and violations of rights of the native people have recurrently happened during this Canadian administration," Mehmanparast noted.

The Iranian spokesperson went on to criticize Canada for its illegal and brutal approach toward protestors during a recent summit in Toronto, arguing that "The issue of human rights is an international commitment and countries should not brush aside such matters by resorting to political justifications."...

"Repeated violations of citizenship rights and assaults against protesters are not an issue that one can keep silent on," he further stressed.

0750 GMT: We have now posted an analysis by Mr Verde, "Voices Raised --- Removing the Supreme Leader".

0625 GMT: Labour Watch. HRANA summarises regime pressure on unionists, from the retrial of Mansur Osanloo to other detentions and intimidations.

0555 GMT: We begin this morning with two pointed critiques of "legitimacy".

Journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained 13 months ago, appeared in court yesterday. A copy of the full text of his statement has been brought out and published: it is a rousing denuncation of those who have crushed "democracy", "free elections", "human rights" and the "republic", and it pays special attention to one man. "Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has trampled the Constitution."

It is unknown whether Saharkhiz was able to read the statement in court, but we do have a picture as he left:



Prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam cannot be quite so direct in his criticisms --- after all, he is a public figure who is not detained --- but his latest interview is still pretty sharp. He points to a "brain drain" and division of clergy in governmental and non-governmental roles. The power of legal forces like Parliament and the judiciary has been diminished, while the power of "irresponsible forces" on the rise.

And Zibakalam considers that the worst result of the post-election dispute has been an irreversible collapse of legitimacy, asking, "Is it possible to bring people back to vote?"