The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1915 GMT: Quiet Engagement. News is just emerging of five British nationals who have been held by Iran since their yacht Sail Bahrain strayed into Iranian waters on Wednesday.

The significance behind the headline is that the story was kept quiet for five days. That indicates that Britain does not want the matter to escalate into confrontation and that Iran, for now, does not want to use the detention for political advantage.

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The Latest from Iran (29 November): Iran’s Nuclear Bluff

1830 GMT: Just for the Nuclear Record. Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki used a press conference with the Russian Energy Minister (who confirmed Moscow's intention to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant by March 2010) to denounce the IAEA resolution:

We could not find any logical reason for the Board of Governors' decision. We cannot accept discrimination in international relations. Either there are rights or such rights do not exist. The age of discriminatory policies is over. This is the law of the jungle.

Nothing surprising here and no further indication as to Iran's next step.

1625 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi, in an interview on his website Tagheerwebsite (official website of Etemad-Melli party), responded to accusations from Kayhan newspaper:

I really did not want to point out the arrogance of these guys but when I saw that they repeatedly are talking about “conspiracy”, denying their role in the events after the election, and are influencing the Judiciary system, I decided to respond....My message to the management of Kayhan newspaper is that the our interpretation of Islam is different than yours.

1610 GMT: President Postponed. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast (see 0715 GMT) has been postponed to Tuesday night.

1555 GMT: A Detainee Speaks. Amidst a slower afternoon, interesting revelations from Behzad Nabavi, the high-profile reform activist who has recently been given a six-year prison sentence. Nabavi is free on a 10-day release pending appeal: "They asked me the night before my release to sign a paper and agree not to engage in political activities or conduct interviews until the appeals court hearing; they told me not to meet or contact political parties and organizations, but I refused. When they couldn't close the deal with me they gave me [only] a 10-day break from prison [instead]."

Nabavi claimed that the former Tehran Prosecutor General, Saeed Mortazavi, was present for at least one of his interrogations. He also claims that his arrest warrant had been issued on 9 June, three days before the Presidential elections (and six days before the supposed basis for his "crime", presence at the mass demonstration on 15 June).

1255 GMT: Larijani Baffles (Part 2). I have a hunch --- and nothing more -- that Ali Larijani, with his statement on the nuclear programme this morning, is setting himself up as an alternative to President Ahmadinejad, both for elements in the Iranian establishment and for the "West".

But who is the target of this Larijani statement, keeping in mind the shaky translation of the Iranian Labour News Agency: "Commenting on the post-election events, the speaker remarked that the unjustified persistence of certain people on their own views would only benefit others"?

1220 GMT: Report that journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been sentenced to six years, three months, and one day in prison.

1204 GMT: Larijani Baffles. Press TV has summarised this morning's comments by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani:

I believe there is still room for diplomacy and it is useful for them [the "5+1 powers] to adopt a diplomatic option. That way Iran would be able to make progress within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) while they would also be certain that Iran activities are peaceful. But of course, if they choose to take a different path Iran would also adopt a different stance.

Here's what puzzles me: given Larijani's hostility to the diplomatic process pursued by the Ahmadinejad Government in recent months, criticising apparent Iranian concessions, why is he now embracing "room for diplomacy"? Why not celebrate the apparent demise of the Ahmadinejad strategy?

Suggestions welcomed.

1200 GMT: This is Interesting. Just over a week before the protests of 16 Azar, students from Amir Kabir University have met Mehdi Karroubi in his home.

1100 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Latin America. An EA reader points us to an intriguing discussion between Mohsen Milani, Aram Hessami and Babak Dad, "What is Ahmadinejad searching for in the USA's backyard?" The reader notes Dad's provocative speculation that one purpose of the President's recent tour of Latin America was to prepare a "safe haven" if one should be noted for him and his allies.

1020 GMT: Montazeri Criticises "lllegal" Violence. Lots of chatter this morning about a video of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denouncing post-election violence by Basiji militia, betraying its mission “unite and mobilise everyone on the path to God not to the path of evil”.

There's more. Montazeri also implicitly attacks the Supreme Leader for his thanks to the Basiji for "defeating the enemy in the events after election”: “Isn’t it a misery that one [i.e., the Basiji] goes to hell (in afterlife) for the wellbeing of others in this world?!” (Summary of remarks on Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi)

0940 GMT: You Might Want to Be More Subtle. The head of Iran's nuclear organisation, Ali Akhbar Salehi, kind of gives the political game away today:

We had no plan to build many nuclear sites like Natanz [enrichment facility but it seems that the West do not want to comprehend Iran's message of peace. The West adopted an attitude toward Iran which made the Iranian government to pass the ratification on construction of ten sites.

Hmm....So you haven't make any previous moves to build beyond the enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordoo but now you've going to throw all your resources at a crash construction programme because of Friday's IAEA resolution?

Wouldn't back Salehi as a poker player: this is either clumsy deception --- Iran has already started on other sites --- or clumsy bluff.

0930 GMT: We've posted the second part of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari's interview with CNN. We've also been moved by his comments on the Green movement(s) to consider again how Washington may be viewing (and belittling) the opposition.

0810 GMT: Blackout. Fears are growing that, in addition to "containing" the protest of 16 Azar (7 December) through a 48-hour holiday just before it, the Government may try to pull the curtains down on it through a cutoff of Internet and mobile phone service.

0730 GMT: Sigh. The coverage of Iran this morning on the BBC's flagship radio programme? Declare "time is running out" for Tehran, then turn over seven minutes of airtime just after 7 a.m. to the Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Ron Prosor for comments such as: "Iranians are not just carpet makers but carpet weavers; they will divide one red line into 100 pink lines and then cross the red line"; "Israel's nuclear capability is irrelevant in the current situation"; "all options are on the table".

0720 GMT: Russia Mending Political/Nuclear Fences? Russian energy minister Sergei Shmatko, in Iran for talks with his Iranian counterpart and other officials, has pledged that Iran's first nuclear power station will soon be completely. Shmatko said earlier this month that the Bushehr plant would be delayed beyond its announced opening date of the end of 2009.

The political significance of Shmatko's statement overshadows the technical dimension: days after supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, Moscow is tacking back politically towards Iran. That means some continuing level of co-operation (though the Russians can always dangle and pull back support) and no sanctions.

0715 GMT: President Ahmadinejad will speak on national television this evening.

0645 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is now holding a press conference on Iranian television.

0630 GMT: Reality Check. Here are two reasons, courtesy of Gary Sick, why the Iran Government's nuclear announcement is "all mouth and no trousers".

The declaration of 10 enrichment plants is for 500,000 centrifuges. In the last nine years, Iran has constructed and installed fewer than 9000 centrifuges, of which only about half are operating. At that rate, the plans announced yesterday will be completed in the year 2509.

According to documents, construction began on the second enrichment site at Fordoo in 2003. There are still no centrifuges installed, and the site is due for completion in 2011.

At that rate, 10 enrichment plants would take 80 years to construct, if they were built one after another. If they were all pursued at the same time, it would put great strain on Iranian resources and manpower, to say the least. What's more, the proposed plants would be the same size as Iran's primary enrichment facility at Natanz, much larger than Fordoo.

0610 GMT: One week before the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December), but all the headlines are far away from the internal conflict in Iran. The Ahmadinejad Government's declaration of "10 new enrichment plants" has successfully walked the international media down a nuclear garden path, even though the proposal at this point is a fantasy. In addition to our coverage in yesterday's updates, we'll have further analysis laying out both the technical and political realities later this morning.

However, while Tehran's move is political symbolism, it reinforces the mood in the US that engagement is now a long-shot. A clear sign of that is in Trita Parsi's piece for The Huffington Post, "Washington Can Give An Israeli Attack On Iran The Red Light". That headline in itself is a hyperbolic diversion --- for reasons beyond the Obama Administration, Israel will not be launching military operations --- but it shows that Parsi, the President of the National Iranian American Council and a fervent supporter of a political settlement with Iran, has now all but given up on the process.

The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

2110 GMT: The White House has put out the following statement:

The United States is deeply concerned about reports of additional charges facing Kian Tajbakhsh (see 1200 GMT), an Iranian-American scholar who has been detained in Iran without access to an independent lawyer since July 9, 2009. The charges against Mr. Tajbakhsh are baseless, and his original sentence on October 20 was an outrage. The Iranian government cannot earn the respect of the international community when it violates universal rights, and continues to imprison innocent people. We call on the Islamic Republic of Iran to release Mr. Tajbakhsh, and to respect the human rights of those within its borders.

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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Larijani Talks Tough

1945 GMT: Seizing the Peace Prize. EA readers have now picked up on the incident, building since yesterday, that Iranian authorities have seized the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to lawyer and rights activist Shirin Ebadi.

The possibility of seizure has been around for months, as the Iranian Government claimed that the award was taxable. (Ebadi maintains that prizes are explicitly excluded from taxation under Iranian fiscal law.) What seems to have elevated the story is the manner of the seizure, with the taking of the medal and prize diploma from a safe-deposit box.

The immediate diplomatic effect seems to have the provocation of Norwegian anger and a promise to elevate the human rights issue.. The Iranian charge d'affaires in Oslo was summoned to a meeting Wednesday with Norwegian State Secretary Gry Larsen. Foreign Minister Store stated, "During the meeting with the Iranian chargé d’affaires, we made it clear that Norway will continue to engage in international efforts to protect human-rights defenders and will follow the situation in Iran closely."

1720 GMT: The Big Push. The Turkish effort to get some movement from Iran on the nuclear issue (see 1600 GMT) accompanies "encouragement" by Moscow:

Russia urged Iran to cooperate with the international community as the United Nations’ atomic agency warned it had hit a “dead end” over whether the Islamic republic is developing a nuclear weapon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov discussed the nuclear issue in Moscow with Ambassador Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi at the Iranian diplomat’s request, the Foreign Ministry said on its Web site today: “The Russian side especially underscored the necessity to observe the agreements in principle reached in talks in Geneva."

1620 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi's brother-in-law Shapour Kazemi, freed earlier today (see 1320 GMT), has received a one-year prison sentence and is free on bail while the verdict is appealed.

Leading reformist Behzad Nabavi, still seriously ill, has been sentenced to six years.

1600 GMT: The Turkish Mediation. It's not looking good in Vienna, but Turkey is still trying to get an enrichment deal:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu [had] phone conversations with foreign ministers of several countries over Iran's nuclear program. Davutoglu spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, diplomats said on Thursday

1530 GMT: And From the Other Side. While Mohammad El Baradei's statement is being headlined by "Western" media as proof that Iran should be cast into the darkness, here's the take from Press TV: "El Baradei: No diversion in Iran nuclear program". Unfortunately for Iran's state media, there's nothing --- nothing --- to support that declaration, and Press has to quote the opposing accounts: "There has been no movement on remaining issues of concern which need to be clarified for the agency to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

1405 GMT: The non-Iranian media are all over the purported statement of Mohammad El Baradei at this morning's International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, stating that examination of Iran's nuclear programme is at a "dead end" because of non-cooperation from Tehran and that he is disappointed at the Iranian modification of his proposal for third-party enrichment of uranium.

To be honest, I'm being very careful with this. El Baradei's statement came out quickly --- very quickly --- from the meeting, which makes me think that certain diplomats are anxious to get his negative views across the Internet and into newspapers and broadcasts. I still think, pending further developments from Vienna, that the best measure of the IAEA head's current analysis is his interview with Reuters yesterday.

1330 GMT: We've posted the BBC version of the documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan.

1320 GMT: Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released on bail after more than five months in detention.

1200 GMT: Tajbakhsh the Pawn? As part of the tough front being taken this week against the US --- yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad's posturing, the threats of the Revolutionary Guard --- the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh has been brought back into Revolutionary Court on new charges of "spying for the George Soros foundation", the Open Society Institute. Tajbakhsh is also accused of sending e-mails to the Gulf 2000 network (a discussion list which includes two EA correspondents as members).

Tajbakhsh is being held in Evin Prison in solitary confinement.

1115 GMT: Tehran's Tough Talk on Nukes. As International Atomic Energy Agency delegates consider a resolution on Iran's nuclear programme, the Iranian ambassador, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, has issued a pre-emptive warning. Iran will respond to any condemnation by reducing co-operation "to the minimum we are legally obliged".

Translated, that's a threat to break off the talks on enrichment, as the resolution will "damage the currently constructive atmosphere" and "have long-term consequences".

1020 GMT: We've just posted an analysis, based on signals in the US media over the last 48 hours, "Has 'Green Reform' Disappeared in Washington?"

0950 GMT: Fighting the Menace Within. Another sign of the regime's disquiet. The Deputy Minister of Intelligence and former commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has launched another attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani through Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

Taeb told a Basiji seminar:

We found an espionage gang in 1992 and 1995 that met in a luxury house in Tehran and trained prostitutes for state officials as a way to corrupt them. One of the ring leaders was Mehdi Hashemi, Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani’s son who was immediately arrested. But following influence peddling by his father, some intelligence officials were transferred to other departments and Mehdi and his gang were set free.

Girls and women prostitutes that worked in that ring were active in Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s presidential election campaign headquarters. The plan of the reformists was that Mousavi would become president while Khatami would become leader and so the regime would collapse.

Taeb advocated arrest of the leaders of the reform movement saying that "there would be no consequences in the country" if they were detained.

0945 GMT: More than 40 students at Khaje Nasir University, the site of ongoing protests before, on, and since 13 Aban (4 November), have been targeted for possible disciplinary action; ten have been summoned to hearings on a variety of charges.

0915 GMT: Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader is asserting his authority with his own global tour, albeit through a statement rather than international jet-setting. His office has just put out the lengthy summary of a message to Iranian pilgrims on the Hajj to Mecca:

Palestine is under the evil dominion of Zionism in increasing suffering and starvation; Al-Aqsa Mosque is in great and serious danger. Oppressed people of Gaza are still in hardest condition after that unexampled genocide. Under the brogan of occupiers, Afghanistan is stricken by a new tragedy every single day. Insecurity in Iraq has deprived people of peace and comfort. Fratricide in Yemen has created a new tragedy in the heart of an Islamic nation.

Muslims think about recent years of devilry and wars, explosion and terrors in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and where they have been designed. Why did these nations not witness tragedy before Western armies entered and dominated the region?

And so on until Ayatollah Khamenei gets to the political heart of his message: "Enemies have been defeated in Islamic Iran. Thirty years of tricks and concpiracy such as coups, war, sanctions, propaganda, and, most recently, [their] pompous [intervention in the] election were the scene of their defeat."

0900 GMT: A later start this morning, as we catch up with the news and post an analysis --- based on discussions over the last 24 hours --- of problems facing the Green movement and the regime, as well as the difficulties for US foreign policy.

On the surface, of course, President Ahmadinejad will say all is well. He continued his I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour on Wednesday with the refuge of discussions in Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez gave warm support, agreements were signed, and Ahmadinejad struck a defiant pose: "Today the people of Venezuela and Iran, friends and brothers in the trench warfare against imperialism, are resisting....[We will] stand together until the end."

However, if Ahmadinejad is using the trip to claim leadership, his absence from Tehran is ample opportunity for others to challenge that authority. The reformist Rooz Online gleefully documents more evidence, in state media as well as private media, of "whispers" in Parliament against the President. The questions so prominently raised last week over not only the Government's economic programme but also mismanagement and corruption are not dissipating; to the contrary, the lack of apparent answers is fuelling more grumbling and discontent.

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

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The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

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2110 GMT: Ezatollah Zarghami has celebrated getting a five-year renewal as head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, by alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are trying to get television airtime to incite people into joining street protests. Zarghami said this would be contrary to IRIB's objectives to "establish a stable social atmosphere" and help "society out of its instability".

1820 GMT: The Economic Issue Rumbles On. In addition to other challenges, President Ahmadinejad is still facing resistance from Parliament over his subsidy reduction bill. He returned from Turkey on Tuesday to go into a meeting with lawmakers, declaring that Iran will emerge as a prosperous nation in five years if the bill is implemented in full.

1815 GMT: Post-election detainee Soheil Navidi Yekta has been sentenced to seven years in jail and 74 lashes.

1800 GMT: More Posturing. The Iranian Government has taken another swipe at France, warning Paris to quiet down over the detention of lecturer Clotilde Reiss, who is under house arrest. A Foreign Ministry spokesman declared, 'The charges against Reiss are documented and therefore there can be no acquittal on grounds of political pressure, and nobody is allowed to tell the relevant judge what to do.

1755 GMT: The Mousavi Interview. We now have the video of Mousavi's comments on Monday, the text of which we posted earlier.

1525 GMT: More Business for the Revolutionary Guard. The BBC reports that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has won a $2.5 billion contract to build a railway route linking the southeastern port of Chabahar to Iran's rail network.

The Guards' engineering wing, Khatam-ol-Anbia, has been awarded Government contracts worth billions of dollars, including the operation of Tehran's Imam Khomeini international airport, and 50 percent of Iran's national telecommunication company was bought by a consortium partly owned by a Revolutionary Guards affiliate fund.

1510 GMT: Crippling the Opposition. In a sign of the effect of Government detentions and intimidation, the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organisation party has postponed its annual convention because of restrictions on members. The party's senior members Behzad Nabavi, Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, and Mostafa Tajzadeh have been detained since June. (English summary)

1500 GMT: We've posted an entry on how a comment in a US blog became the story of how "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met US spies".

1245 GMT: The "Neda Plot". As part of the ongoing campaign to portray the death of Neda Agha Soltan as a "premeditated scenario" to discredit the Iranian regime, Basij members are being summoned to gather in front of the British Embassy in Tehran to call for the extradition of Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to assist Neda after she was shot on 30 June. “Female Basij members are scheduled to congregate in front of the British Embassy on Wednesday at 2 p.m. local time,” Fars News reports.

1050 GMT: We awoke to reports of the hanging of Ehsan Fattahian, sentenced to death for "acting against national security with arms"and "war against God", but refrained from posting pending confirmation. That confirmation has now come from Fars News.

0900 GMT: We have posted the speech of activist Shadi Sadr accepting the "Human Rights Defenders Award" in The Netherlands: "Before the eyes of the people who are now fighting for freedom, democracy and human rights in Iran, one cannot sit at a negotiation table with a dictatorial government to speak about nuclear energy or economic contracts and talk about concrete conditions and at the same time, criticise the state of human rights in Iran through political statements which have no actual guarantee to be put into action."

0840 GMT: Not quite sure what to make of this, amidst stories of Iran's reorganisation of control over its security forces. Press TV reports, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has appointed Iran's interior minister as deputy commander of the country's Armed Forces in charge of police forces. In a decree issued by Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Tuesday, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar was handed the post of deputy commander."

0800 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, so EA correspondents have taken the opportunity to make some important political connections in a series of videos.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's put-down of a BBC Persian correspondent, who asked about the rumoured $18.5 billion in gold shifted from Iran to Turkey, may not add much beyond a bit of drama. However, the impassioned speech of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mohsen at a 17 June meeting offers important insight into the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad relationship.

And the footage of the Supreme Leader meeting an American hostage (now the highest-level official ever devoted specifically to Iran affairs in the US State Department) is far more than a nostalgic clip. It may point to the emerging, and special, political "engagement" between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Obama Administration.

Of course, none of this should eclipse the significance, on the opposition side, of the discussion of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, covering the failings of the Government and the need to restore unity through a return to the Constitution. More than 36 hours after the interview was posted, we have the English translation.

The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

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2215 GMT: On? Off? Well, I guess for a day that started with a projection of Government uncertainty, it is appropriate that it should end that way. Having said on Saturday that Iran could reject the Vienna enrichment deal, top lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1016801/1/.html on Sunday, "Our first option is to buy fuel of 20 per cent (enrichment). But if we cannot buy it we could make a limited exchange on condition that first we get fuel of 20 per cent."

So is Boroujerdi shifting in recognition that pro-deal forces have pressed ahead (see 1640 GMT)? Or is he just manoeuvring for a better position, working with allies, to hold out against any agreement?

2030 GMT: Another day with some releases from prison and some cases going to trial. The file of Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has been sent to the Revolutionary Court.

1930 GMT: An Iranian blogger reports that Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, was met by sustained protests when he visited Gilan University in northern Iran today and left to shouts of "Murderer, Get Out!". We have video in a separate entry.

1850 GMT: Three Iranian judges have reported been fired because of their connection with the Kahrizak Prison, infamous for alleged abuse of detainees.

1640 GMT: Nuclear Deal On? Yes, the Ahmadinejad Government is pressing ahead, despite objections from within the establishment.

"Diplomats close to nuclear negotiations" say that Iran will offer a two-stage delivery of uranium to be enriched in Russia. Each delivery will consist of 400 kilogrammes. The total of 800 kilogrammes, or just over half of Iran's current stock of uranium, compares with a single delivery of 1200 kilogrammes in the proposal from October's Vienna talks.

The revelation of Iran's counter-offer may have been prompted by the gathering flurry of voice in Iran's state media saying no deal was possible (see yesterday's updates and 1300 GMT). Or it may be connected with a visit, reported in Fars News, of Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov to Tehran.

1620 GMT: Presidential Confusion. Here's the latest explanation for why Ahmadinejad did not appear last night. He was going to speak about his subsidy reform bill but then decided not to appear, since this might pre-empt Parliament's discussion on the measure today. The director of his Public Relations Department now says, "The interview is slated for next week." He added:

Such a relation [between postponement and Parliament's subsidy reform discussions] cannot be denied but other issues may also be involved. However, what Fars news agency has issued is not what we announced and they have offered their own comment. Actually it will be disrespectful to people if we declare that the interview was not conducted due to the president's other engagements.

Understand that? I don't. Accept it? No again.

1605 GMT: For What It's Worth. Parliament's National Security Commission has announced that it will investigate the events of 13 Aban.

1545 GMT: Correction on the Bread Story. An EA correspondent checks in to clarify the economic situation in Iran:

The rising bread prices in Tehran are not a result of the subsidy plan, which has not even been ratified by the Majlis [Parliament] or the Guardian Council. The changes in Tehran's bread prices stem from the Government's experiment with higher-quality wheat in the bread. For this they have to charge more, even with the subsidized price, to bakers. They first did this in Karaj (a suburb of Tehran) after the election. No bread riots there, even though it is a poorer area. Then they expanded it through Tehran slowly.

1535 GMT: Rafsanjani Surfaces. The former President has met members of Parliament from the Western Provinces. He has once again called for a constructive social and political dialogue. Implicitly criticising  post-election coverage by state media, he said concerns must be heard and the creation of unity through due legal process and avoidance of extreme and divisive actions is a necessity.

1510 GMT: Appearing in Revolutionary Court, Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has denied all charges against him.

1310 GMT: Mediaflash --- Iranian Politics Makes Washington Post Columnist's Head Explode. It's not just the headline of David Ignatius' column, "Iran's 'Great Satan' addiction", that indicates ill-informed stereotype and hysterical pseudo-analysis is to follow. There is his ignorance of any aspect to the Iranian post-election crisis other than the "nuclear issue" and his reduction of Iran's politics to Ahmadinejad v. the Reformists (and then Khamenei Jumps In).

What really gives offence is that Ignatius won't admit that the "Great Satan" problem lies not with the Green movement but with his own inability to appreciate 1) that opposing the regime does not necessarily mean giving up a claim to Iran's sovereignty over nuclear energy and 2) that opposition to Ahmadinejad's tactics of negotiation with the US has more to do with criticism of the President's quest for legitimacy than it does with anti-Americanism. Thus this well-connected Washington columnist throws out the Green opposition as a movement tainted with an incurable Iranian disease:

Rather than speak up for dialogue with the United States, many of the reformists gathered around former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi decided instead to score political points against Ahmadinejad. The past month has been a reminder that the very existence and legitimacy of Khamenei's regime are interwoven with a defiant anti-Americanism. This legacy infects even the reformers who protest against Khamenei.

1300 GMT: Nuclear Deal Off?A "well-informed" Iranian source has rejected the compromise "third-party enrichment" proposal of Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Only yesterday Iranian state media were featuring El Baradei's suggestion Turkey to replace France as the third country with Russia and Iran in the enrichment plan, but the source claims, "It seems the IAEA chief is trying to take advantage of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Turkey to gain media coverage on a closed issue."

It remains to be seen whether the source is part of the Ahmadinejad camp, indicating that third-party enrichment is now dead as a negotiating possibliity, or whether he is connected to Iranian politicians trying to undermine the deal (and possibly the President).

1255 GMT: An Ahmadinejad Victory. Amidst the apparent turmoil within the Government, the President did pick up a big win on Sunday when the Parliament approved proposals to redistribute money saved from subsidy cuts. The Parliament, however, retains a say in the plan, as the cash in the state budget where the legislators have oversight powers.

1145 GMT: Press TV is now featuring news of Ali Larijani's meeting with senior Iraqi clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Unsurprisingly, there are no indications of whether the talks focused on Iranian or Iraqi politics, only general platitudes such as Larijani "underlin[ing] the importance of religious authorities' viewpoints in resolving various issues among Muslims".

0910 GMT: We have posted Mehdi Karroubi's video statement on 13 Aban.

0835 GMT: With news coming in of the Karroubi video and uncertainty over Ahmadinejad's moves, we've split off our initial update as a separate analysis, "An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble".

0825 GMT: Yes, Challenge Renewing. Mehdi Karroubi has just released a video statement on the 13 Aban protests. He declares that the Government has failed to put down the opposition with force and points to the Ahmadinejad hypocrisy of backing anti-US protests while negotiating with Washington.

0815 GMT: Busted! Ahmadinejad's Cancelled Speech and the Trip to Ankara. And here is the revelation that the President's 2nd postponement of his post-13 Aban speech is a sign of a Government in trouble. From the Chinese news service Xinhua:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will depart to Turkey on Nov. 8 to take part in the economic summit of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in the country, the official IRNA news agency reported on Monday.

So Ahmadinejad knew he was going to Turkey 48 hours before 13 Aban. And that exposes his excuse, more than 48 hours after 13 Aban, that he had to cancel his Saturday speech because he suddenly noticed he was going to Ankara.

0750 GMT: Will Russia Shift on Sanctions? As those opposed to the enrichment deal sent out their message yesterday through MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev declared, in an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, that Iran must abide by international rules and not hide its nuclear facilities. He added that it would be better to avoid sanctions, but they cannot be excluded if there is no progress in the talks.

It should be remembered that Medvedev offered a similar statement after the "revelation" of the second enrichment facility in September and that Der Spiegel has a tendency towards sensationalism in its coverage of Iran. So this feels more like a bit of pressure from Moscow for Iran to keep negotiating on an enrichment deal, rather than a threat of imminent sanctions.

0735 GMT: A Symbol? Today's update picture (left) is of an empty University classroom. The inscription on the wall, "Death to Khamenei".

The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

NEW Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
NEW Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 4th Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)

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1905 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).

1845 GMT: From the Streets. We've posted an eyewitness account by Persian  Umpire, which can be compared with that of our correspondent Mr Azadi, of the 13 Aban demonstrations.

1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for "information", this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein Karroubi:

On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.

There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.

1725 GMT: What does "Obama, You're With Them or You're With Us" Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, "What Does Iran's Green Movement Want from Obama?".  Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran's human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.

1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today's service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge.

The first is an apparent "concession" in the hard line normally set out by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami. He began with his portrayal of a small, foreign-backed group trying to disrupt the pro-Government rallies on 13 Aban: "Out of the hundreds and thousands of people who take to the streets, only one or two thousand shouted [for the Greens]...."Americans must not be happy, as there is no red carpet waiting for them." And he pressed the evil sponsor theme: "My brothers and sisters who have fallen in the wrong and incorrect track, look who is supporting you, those who were named by the late imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] as 'blasphemous' and [whose] Islam was called 'Americanized Islam'. The miserable monarchists are supporting you."

Yet Khatami then offered a way back to the fold, "What is wrong if you follow the mainstream of the nation? Come back to the embrace of the nation and the nation will accept your repenting and remorse....Of course the criminals’ cases are different and they should be punished."

That apparent sign of reconcilation was not matched by an opening for the US. To the contrary, Khatami was so loud in his denunciation of Washington that it heightens suspicions that Iran --- possibly against the line set out by President Ahmadinejad --- is walking out on the nuclear talks. Khatami declared, "Since the 1953 coup against [Mohammad] Mosaddegh, the U.S. has done nothing except treason against our nation, and since the beginning of our revolution, as [Khomeini] said, we can compile a book about the crimes committed by the US", and he brought the story to the present, with the Obama Administration instigating ethnic groups and releasing $50 million for "toppling our system". Khatami concluded, "As long as the U.S. will not give up its arrogant character, our nation is not going to be engaged in satanic negotiations."

Khatami's line was introduced by Alaedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee, who denounced protesters for following the line of the Voice of America: "The leaders [of the opposition] used to be high-ranking officials. Now, they repeat the same slogans."

So, if Khatami is speaking for others higher up in the regime, is this an attempt to ease the internal conflict by offering an olive branch to the "less serious" offenders? And will this be matched by a linking of the "more serious" offenders --- say, the leaders of the opposition movement --- to the US, even if that means a suspension of engagement with the "West"?

Most importantly, is this shift in strategy a sign of weakness or strength? I'm voting for the former.

1430 GMT: Will The Regime Break The Opposition? Following our previous entry, Mr Smith checks in, "We may have underestimated the police resolve: Iranian human rights groups are now reporting that no less than 400 people have been picked up in the streets on 13 Aban and are now in Evin Prison."

I do not think we missed this. Rather, we may be seeing an important juncture in the post-election crisis. As we have noted over the last 48 hours, the Ahmadinejad Government may be lost for a political strategy, but it can still try to use blunt force to survive by pounding the opposition into submission.

1255 GMT: The Government Acts. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has confirmed that reformists Ali Tajernia, Saeed Shariati, and Ebrahim Amini will be tried on Saturday. Ahmad Zeidabadi and Behzad Nabavi will be in court on Sunday, and Mohammad Atrianfar will appear on Monday.

An Iranian activist is offering running updates on the latest developments with detentions and forthcoming court hearings.

1245 GMT: What Has Mohammad Khatami Been Doing? The former President, who has kept a low profile in recent days including 13 Aban, has resurfaced with a visit to Morteza Alviri, the former mayor of Tehran and Mehdi Karoubi’s representative on the committee to investigate detainee abuses, in his home. Alviri was arrested in a raid on Karroubi's offices in September and released on bail last week.

Khatami offered general remarks, praising Alviri's courage and long service to Iran.

1200 GMT: I can't help thinking that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has been seriously distracted by last month's bombing in southeastern Iran.

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the IRGC's Deputy Commander, has given a lengthy interview to Fars News about the threat from Jundallah. He goes on at length about foreign support of the Baluch insurgents but this is the headline claim: Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi was arrested in September but was released after interference from Pakistani intelligence services.

It's not a question of the attention that the Revolutionary Guard is now paying to the southeastern situation rather than to the internal challenge. Allegations like these are bound to complicate the Government's relations with neighbours such as Pakistan.

1155 GMT: Agence France Presse reports that four journalists --- two Canadian, 1 Japanese, and 1 Iranian working for AFP --- were arrested on 13 Aban.

1145 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, known for his fierce denunciation of post-election opposition, led the prayers in Tehran, and he did not ease up on the evil of a Green movement led by the United States.

1. Observers should not mistake a "small group" of agitators backed by Washington as the message of 13 Aban, given the "flood surge" of people who came out for the Iranian nation, Government, and Supreme Leader.

2. Iran's great success in nuclear energy is being led by Ayatollah Khamenei. The West "says we should build confidence but we do not have confidence in you".

3. Give us the uranium for Iran's medical research reactor. Now.

4. The US is arrogant, but Iran will never negotiate with evil.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Face-Off. With news from inside Iran slow this morning, the Iranian Government has kept attention on the international talks. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has maintained on IRIB television, "The Islamic Republic examines all the proposals. We have examined this proposal, we have some technical and economic considerations [which need to be addressed]." Mottaki's remarks were an indirect response to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's insistence that the draft arrangement on uranium enrichment would not be changed.

Mottaki has also used remarks to the Islamic Republic News Agency to poke at the "superficial" comments of the French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner.

0935 GMT: Really, I'm Going to Speak...but Football First. Fars News Agency reports:

President Ahmadinejad's speech to the nation has been postponed because of Thursday night's World Cup football match between Iran and Uruguay.

The President will speak after 9 p.m. on Saturday on the nuclear issue, the economy, and in particular information technology.

Postponed because of the football? Call me cynical, but postponed because of uncertainty and disarray is a less dramatic explanation. The original story was that the President would appear on Thursday, irrespective of any prospect that he might be overshadowed by a sporting event; the delay points to a Government that is trying to figure out how to respond to the show of opposition on 13 Aban.

0825 GMT: Following the assessments by Mr Smith and by Chris Emery of the outcomes of 13 Aban's marches, EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers his assessment of the day's events and their political impact.

0735 GMT: Balancing our criticism of the rush by some back to the haven of Iran as Nuclear Threat, other newspapers do keep an eye on the opposition and internal developments. The Huffington Post has a feature on Mahmoud Vahidnia, the mathematics student who challenged the Supreme Leader during a speech last week. And The New York Times publishes a commentary by Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris on "The Message from Tehran".

0700 GMT: An Enduring America reader wrote with concern a few hours ago, "Today was suspiciously quiet. No videos coming out and no statements....I’m not sure what to make of it." Josh Shahryar's excellent analysis, posted in a separate entry, offers an answer. I would add: 1) this lull happened after previous large demonstrations of opposition, as on 30 July and 18 September; 2) a pause was to be expected after the rush of energy and fortitude on 13 Aban; 3) the movement is already gathering itself for the next show of defiance, with planning beginning for Students Day on 16 Azar (7 December).

That's not to say that other folks are already leaving the party. The Washington Post exits with great haste to its priority of the nuclear issue. It features an article claiming, from the ever-present unnamed official, "Iran is demanding full delivery of reactor fuel before it gives up its stash of low-enriched uranium and has balked at further efforts to hold international talks on its nuclear program." That, however, is fair-and-balanced reporting next to the paper's editorial calling for an immediate cutoff of talks and twisting 13 Aban to fit that demand:

On Wednesday, the opposition protesters chanted: "Obama, Obama -- either you're with them, or with us." Sooner rather than later, Mr. Obama ought to respond to those messages.

The rush away from Iran to the nuclear front is likely to be accelerated by an "exclusive" in The Guardian this morning, "Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report". Apparently "Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design...known as a 'two-point implosion' device," and "nuclear experts" find this "breathtaking".

Translation: a "Western" official (US, European, or from the International Atomic Energy Agency) decided --- from genuine concern, a desire to wreck the enrichment talks, or both --- to leak another headline from the controversial 2008 IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme. Without seeing the actual text, it is impossible to know the significance of the alleged warhead design. Indeed, two sentences deep in a side analysis in The Guardian tip off that this is far from an "imminent threat" story:

Most but not all of the material in the dossier relates back to the period before 2004. It does not necessarily conflict with the US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, that found it likely that Iran suspended weaponisation work in 2003.

That, I suspect, will not deter media from racing to panic stations over the claim.