Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion

Yesterday an EA reader sent me this thoughtful and challenging comment:

I would like to point out what seems to be an oversight/flaw in your general understanding of the Green movement. By all counts, the vast majority of Iranians who have been out on the streets and questioning the legitimacy of [President] Ahmadi[nejad] and his cohorts, have no sympathy for Mousavi and "his" Green movement.

Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? A Discussion on (Non)-Violence

They are more being driven by their own frustrations, hopelessness and overwhelming desire to bring change. It is not likely that in any open contest, if given the choice, the majority of Iranians would be in support of the continuation of the Iranian regime as an Islamic Republic with its flawed constitution--the main refrain of [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mohammad] Khatami is that there is nothing wrong with the Islamic Revolution, it is simply the deviation from the path of [Imam] Khomeini that is a problem.

So by focusing on, for example, whether [Ataollah] Mohajerani, [Mohsen] Sazegara or [Mohsen] Makhmalbaf (all figures tainted in the minds of many Iranians for their support of the regime who have only come to the party because there friends are now out of power and they would like to change that, you are missing the point about the magnitude of anger with the regime and all of its supporters over the past 30 years.

The loss inflicted by the Islamic Republic on Iran and Iranians is unfathomable for non-Iranians. The movement in Iran (which is not Green) is a manifestation of 30 years of pain and represents a demand for fundamental change. It would be a huge shame if that change is ultimately represented by Mousavi, Sazegara, Makhbalbaf and their friends....

This was my immediate response:

If you read between the lines, I think you may see our evolving thought that those at the grassroots and prominent figures such as Mousavi should no longer be conflated (I agree fully that --- being on a learning curve here --- we have made that conflation). At the same time, I think our sense has been that there is a synergy of pressure brought by the different aspects, i.e., if a Karroubi or Mousavi made a public move, that might energise the mass movement (and, conversely, that protest such as that on 30 July or Qods Days could bolster the challenge of those figures).

What recent weeks have raised, I think, is the question of whether the challenge still rests on that synergy, as I sense a disillusionment with Mousavi's inability to be visible on occasions such as 13 Aban and his recent manoeuvres and with Khatami's rather vague comments, accompanied by Karroubi's growing caution. How does the mass movement organise itself to maintain a lasting challenge?

My thought --- strictly as an outsider, I have to add --- is that your comment does not necessarily lead to a separation of the grassroots from the political figures. Another EA reader just posted, "The Iranian people were still shouting [their] names during their protests." I do wonder now, however, if waiting for leadership --- given not only specific issues about the figures you mention but the wider political environment in Iran --- means Waiting for Godot.

So, as the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) approach but, more importantly, as the movement passes that marker and six months of resistance, I wonder again, "How now to organise?"

An hour after I drafted this response, another contributing twist: Agh Bahman, via Pedestrian's blog, has put together the thoughts of activists about the strategy for 16 Azar. The immediate concern of "Flowers for Bullets", the strategy advocated by recently-released detainee Emad Bahavar: how to maintain a peaceful and effective Green protest?

We've posted those thoughts in a separate entry.

Iran: Text of Mousavi Statement to Basiji (25 November)

Translation by Khordaad 88:

In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful

5th of Azar (26 November) is the anniversary of creation of "Basij of the Poor" by Imam Khomeini. This anniversary is an opportunity to have a second look at this influential institution in the history of the Islamic revolution: What was the Basij? What is it now? and what should it be? What force created the Basij, and gave it a name and recognition? What made it a hero of all the different tastes and inclinations [of different classes] in a period of the modern history of this land?

The Latest from Iran (26 November): Corridors of Conflict

That glorious history and great success known as Basij was not achieved through extensive budgets, and expensive weapons. It was not excellent institutionalized organization techniques that made the Basij as glorious as a tale of magnificent proportions. It was not military power that formed Basij. Instead, it was deep and pure intentions that created this high tower and nurtured role models whose names are remembered as if they were loyal friends of the prophet.

In addition, in the history of the revolution, Basij is the symbol and centerpiece of courage and persistence of our nation. Thirty years ago, Imam created "Basij of the Poor" to stand against probable military assault of superpowers. This act was the most influential step taken to prevent any such attacks. In the past three three decades, powers great and small carried the most destructive of weapons. The only thing that stopped them from assaulting our soil or made them regret their assault was that they had seen the courage of the people who were not afraid of the strength of the powerful. They had seen people who did not stop at anything to defend their rights and ideals. Basij was a window through which this aspect of our nation was displayed.

Basij was a manifestation of the union of [social] layers and different appetites among our people. When our caring father [Imam Khomeini] was planting this tree, he said: “A country that has 20 million youth, must have 20 million Basij members.” How could have this been achieved if Basij belonged to only one mode of thinking, one group or one class? What he meant by the 20 million army was the color and capacity that could represent if not all, at least a big majority of the colors that exist in our society; something like the flags of prince of martyrs, [third Imam of Shiite] that is yearly raised everywhere throughout our country, and all of our social layers even some of the religious minorities gather around it.

If Basij has turned into one of our nation’s greatest achievements, it was because of attention to such secrets. Otherwise, a name [Basij] can not by itself achieve such almost artistic relics of greatness: The art of changing normal people to an army who relies on God, the art of resisting and winning [the war] empty handed and the art of becoming the source and axis for the union and for the pride of a nation.
Today too, it’s the same story. It is not orders of labels and symbols, words and appearances, neither is it types of discourse and accents nor sentences or magic that creates such schools [Basij or purposeful togetherness] of love, and great humans. All the Basijis, whether known or nameless, who are the pride of faith and land, did not become heroes because of their words. They were tested. Of course, there is not one person in this world who is not tested with choosing right from wrong.

“Do men think that they will be left alone on saying, ‘We believe’, and that they will not be tested?"

“We did test those before them, and Allah will certainly know those who are true from those who are false”

The time has reached for the inheritors of Bagheris and Bakeris [high-ranking Revolutionary Guard military commanders killed in the Iraq-Iran War]. A new generation who are called Basijis and are in the middle of the darkest suspicions and upheaval. Is this new generation similar to those who have fought along The Commander of Faithful in the Battle of Camel [a battle that took place at Basra, Iraq in 656 between forces allied to Ali ibn Abi Talib (First Imam of Shi’ites and the Commander of the Faithful) and forces allied to Aisha (widow of Prophet Muhammad )]? Or are such similarities pointless because those who make them want Basij to be an oppressive machine to hit, capture, hurt and even kill the human beings whom their only sin is asking for justice?

Who knows the answer to such questions? What is the real identity of the institution which is currently called “Basij (Mobilization) of the Oppressed”? Is this an erratic institution that closes its eyes and breaks the arms and legs of its brothers and sisters when they are ordered to do so? Or is it an institution with the deepest insight that can distinguish the right way from wrong way in the darkest nights of upheaval. The night of upheaval is like a days for those who have doubts in their answers to these questions.

“Whenever you are faced with Fitna (Upheavals) like parts of a dark night, Quran is yours [to get refuge and find your way]”.

Hear the response of the Prophet (Peace be upon him) to all these doubts that when upheavals gets into you like parts of a dark night you have to look through Quran! Quran is an intercessor that its intercession is always accepted, and if it becomes a witness against anyone its testimony is accepted. A book that will lead to paradise anyone who considers it as a leader and will drive to hell anyone who goes against it. A book that guides to the best of ways. Quran is a book that clearly and explicitly orders us to be with the truthful.

“O you who believe, fear Allah and be with the truthful”

However, if the truthful were known, the night of upheaval would have ended. On the other hand it is clear that the truthful never lies. Those who lie in their most important political campaign are certainly not truthful. God-consciousness is not their companion and faith is not compatible with them. Haven’t you heard lies in the past months?

“O you who believe, fear Allah and be with the truthful”

What was the Basji, what will be, and what is to be done?

The Basji that the Imam wanted would not stand against the nation, but would stand behind them and with them. A Basji whose actions would go beyond political factions and its broad shoulders would protect all, a Basji that would enjoy the friendship of the people, a Basji that would be seeking people’s friendship and unity. A Basji that would overlook the differences of opinion and protect the life and liberty of the masses, that would see them all as brothers or one in creation. A Basji that would protect the privacy of people. Imam did not want the Basji as a tool of authority, but a place for people to project their own power, a place that would allow them to have a part in their own future. It was supposed to be that the actions and behavior of the Basji would be an example to the people, not to have the power of the Basji crush the people. The Basji was not supposed to be on the government payroll and was not supposed to receive bonuses for arresting people for participating in demonstrations. It is a sad day if the Basji becomes just another political party. This is not what the Imam wanted for the Basjiis. The Basji was not supposed to be an instrument to take away people’s freedom in their votes.

My Basjii brothers! What where the faults or flaws in Imam [Khomeini]’s aspirations for Basij that you have abandoned them? Why should you ruin the image created based on the efforts of those before you? You are from the people and with the people. Why do the concepts that our people favour based on their nature, cause such hatred among our Basiji friends? What is bad about freedom? Why talking about freedom causes so much disgust in the heart of some our Basiji friends as if freedom is a unforgivable sin? We know that many of our cities’ major crossroads are called freedom. Don’t we say that subjects like human rights, women rights, minorities rights, and as such are exploited by great powers to hypocritically associate themselves with these concepts and demonstrate a good face?

So why should those, who are the main and noble owners of such values and ideals, distance themselves from them? Do they want their school of thought to look detestable? Why do you ban these concepts and consider them as criteria for being non-religious? Religion is like a favourite flower bestowed upon people. Its teachings are moderate and in agreement with people ‘s nature. Don’t turn it in to a torn bush, that everyone who touches it gets harmed, like what our youth experience [nowadays] in the streets.

Thirty years ago Basij came to existence just like a flower and a blast of light. If one desires to return to that luminous original era, does that mean he has turned his back on the [Islamic] Revolution and intends to turn over the system? Isn’t it a call to justice if one requests to return to the original version of Islamic revolution? If one demands the pure Islam of Mohammad, the one that Imam [Khomeini] was its mouthpiece and referral; if one expresses distaste toward superstitious and superficiality, which is sold to people in the name of religion; if one follows all the articles of the constitution; if one asks for the loyalty to the vows made based on belief and humanity? Is it legitimate to smack such people in the streets, to torture them in the jails, to sentence them to long terms in prison? Do Islam and Koran teachings allow killing of the people who peacefully ask their rulers to be just?

“And they kill the people who asked them to be just. So warn them of a severe punishment."

What was [the essence of] Basij before and what will it turn into if it continues on the road laid for it? The force that once represented the courage of our nation is now used to terrorize Iranians? It is evident that the newest and the latest strategy adopted by the authoritarian minority is to create fear in people. They wear terrifying apparel and gather in military formations in the city streets to frighten their countrymen? They terrorize people because they themselves are terrified? Or they convict the sons of this revolution to 7 , 10 and 15 years in prison to console themselves? And they don’t realize how they are jeopardizing the national security with these short-sighted behaviors?

It is sufficient for great powers to see [our] people frightened to harass our nation. To see our people’s courage undermined and their strength and their endurance uncertain to believe their dreams of the last 30 years [against our nation] are coming true. Look at our two neighboring countries that are occupied by foreign forces. In both countries they attempted to terrify people and people were terrified. On the surface the [great] powers stepped into these countries with the promise to set them free. But they did not hide their greed in [seeing] horrified faces of people when they established places like Abu Ghraib. They told people of these two countries with outmost clarity that you are the people who were scared of Saddam and Taliban; now it is justified to be more scared of our terrorizing weaponry. Even the radical terrorists still savagely kill these people hoping they can rule them based on their fear as the bloodthirsty [dictators] did before them . The victims of the brutalities of Saddam and Taliban are still paying for their lack of courage. But our nation owes its security and peace to courage and strength shown in the last thirty years.

Now some people in the country want to take this [social] capital away from us. [Our] people are either not frightened by their displays --- which they are not and they will take away this last weapon away from them --- or they will be scared. In that case will these war toys keep this country intact?

In our contemporary history Basij was not just a name , it was a conduct that we will always need. [This is true] to the extent that if those responsible for Basij forget their duties and assignments we need to carry them out ourselves. It is a necessity, even more important than the goals of our movement , that forces us not to let anyone show greed in our fear.

And we should know, there is no color beyond black. [Creating] fear is their last effort. Your opponents made a mistake and used what they had as the last resort against your peaceful strength. The true solutions to their [quandaries] are yourselves. The day you ask your opponents: “are the colorful flags you carry in the support of implementing the full constitution?” and they answered yes, welcome them. That day we will all be Green.

Mir Hossein Mousavi

The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

NEW Latest Iran Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “The Stone Victory” over the Basiji on 13 Aban
Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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2035 GMT: An advance copy of Michael Slackman's article on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, published in Sunday's New York Times, is on-line.

2030 GMT: An Iranian activist is offering a running summary of the Government's crackdown on students through arrests and detentions as well as disciplinary action by Universities.

1840 GMT: A Mousavi Trial? Mohammad Nabi Habibi, Secretary-General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has demanded that Mir Hossein Mousavi be prosecuted for claiming that the Presidential election was rigged, "I believe both Mousavi and all those who propagated this big lie must face trial in a court of law."

1810 GMT: We've posted the video and Engish text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh (see 1550 GMT for summary).

1600 GMT: Magically Appearing Crowd. We opened this morning (0745 GMT) with photographic confirmation of the disappointing crowd at President Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz. Kayhan, the firmly pro-Government newspaper, has published pictures, but suddenly the empty bleachers are filled with people.

No one around here is saying Photoshop. Really.

1550 GMT: 1st summary of Mousavi Interview....

People should know what the government has done with $200 billion of oil revenues in the last two years. The Majlis [Parliament] should be criticized for not controlling and overseeing Government expenditures. It is not possible to have consumer prices based on international market prices and wages based on national standards and remove subsidies.

The scope of deployment of forces on the streets on #13Aban was unprecedented. When I walked out of my office on 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] and saw the number of forces deployed, I thought this in itself is a victory for the Green movement. [Mousavi was under effective detention throughout the day, surrounded in his offices by pro-Government activists.]

1520 GMT: Copies of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with Kalemeh are now circulating. We'll have a summary within an hour.

1210 GMT: Today's Media Nonsense. David Frum, the Bush speechwriter who claims to have given the world the phrase "Axis of Evil", wields an aggressive pen in Canada's National Post over "Tehran's Last Chance".

Frum begins by misunderstanding the dynamics of the current negotiations over uranium enrichment. That's OK, his forte is words rather than any comprehension of politics. But then he goes overboard with his Sketch of Doom: The Iranians could not make their message clearer if they had sent a crayoned letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency: 'We're building a bomb--and you don't dare stop us. Boom boom, suckers.'"

And the solution? Just a few missiles from Tel Aviv: "Once again --- as with the Israeli strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, and the Israeli strike at Syria's nuclear reactor in 2007 --- the peace of the region and possibly the world will depend on Israeli strength and courage."

0940 GMT: A Bit More on the Iran-Turkey "Big Push". Yesterday we paid a great deal of attention to the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit to President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz, linking it to Tehran's counter-proposal for an uranium enrichment agreement. Mr Smith noted the pay-off of the Nabucco gas pipeline deal, which would link Turkey and Iran in one of the biggest projects of the 21st century.

Today's Press TV story: "More support for Iran to join Nabucco"

0930 GMT: Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, pushing for the deal that will shore up his legitimacy, followed up his Thursday address in Tabriz with a nationally-televised speech on Friday night. He embraced more talks with the "West" while contining the theme of negotiating from strength:

Today, the only tool in the hands of [our] enemies is to wage a psychological war and raise the hue and cry; but they know well that threats will have no impact on the Iranian nation....The resistance of the Iranian nation has repelled threats against Tehran.

The Iranian nation welcomes talks and interaction and presses any hand extended for cooperation. But if its dignity and rights are not respected, the nation will not give up its rights.

0900 GMT: A well-placed EA source gives us an exclusive:

This week is the Week of Basij [militia]. What is interesting is that General Naqdi, the new Basij commender, and his companions went to Imam Khomeini's shrine, but Seyed Hassan Khomeini [the Imam's grandson] did not show up to welcome them.

Seyyed Hassan did not welcome Ahmadinejad, his Cabinet, or the head of police, but when Hashemi Rafsanjani visited the Shrine he warmly greeted him. This is could be why Ayatollah Khamenei invited Seyyed Hassan to see him on Thursday "to give him some advice".

0815 GMT: Former Minister of Culture Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, who was dismissed by the President in the controversy over the choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has criticised Ahmadinejad in Ayande News. He claims that the President is arrogant, too easily trusts people such as Mashai, and does not accept advice.

0810 GMT: More Rumblings from Parliament. Ahmad Tavakoli, the high-profile member of Parliament and ally of the Larijanis, has declared that Ahmadinejad’s demands from the Parliament are illegal. He warned that if those demands were accepted, this would lead to the closure of a Parliament which was failing to function.

0755 GMT: Salaam News has a lengthy interview with Hossein Marashi, who is close to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. What is interesting, beyond the clear disappointment with the Iranian system accompanied by the declaration that Rafsanjani "more than anyone else" is loyal to that system and its leadership, is Marashi's attention to the "reformists" and the Green Wave. While emphasizing that "public anger is serious", he is equally emphatic about the need for "communities of leadership" for the movement.

(Note: given what I think is a significant interview and our attention to the development and future of the opposition, I would be grateful for any comments and further translation of key sentences of this article.)

0745 GMT: Catching up with bits and pieces. An EA reader finally gave us the visuals we wanted on the crowd for Ahmadinejad's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

Picture 1 is from the Presidential campaign; pictures 2 and  3 are from Thursday.

The Latest in Iran (19 November): It's the Nukes Today

NEW Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor’s Account
NEW Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
NEW Iran’s 16 Azar Video: Greens Fight “The Pirates of the Persian Gulf”
The Latest Iran Video: Demonstration at University in Karaj (17 November)
Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months
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The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

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2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran's national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.

Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.

2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of "popular welcoming staff" of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.

An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.

1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government's Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.

Sweden currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

1800 GMT: Clinton Speaks Out? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared to journalists in Kabul:

It is a very unfortunate, distressing development to see these sentences handed down in Iran, imposing the death penalty on people who participated in expressing their opposition to the government in demonstrating in the streets.It underscores the approach that the government in Iran takes for their own people.

We will continue to stand up for the rights of the people of Iran to speak for themselves, to have their votes counted, to be given an opportunity to have the measure of freedom and rights that any person deserves to have

1755 GMT: What Happened on Election Night? We've posted the account of Abolfazl Fateh, the editor of Ghalam News, a paper close to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1550 GMT: Football Politics. In its latest friendly match, Iran's national football team drew 1-1 with Macedonia. The Tehran Times says 1000 people attended; an EA source says the number was closer to 500.

Still, that's better than the 100 who turned up at the match earlier this month with Iceland.

1455 GMT: The Clerics Plot. An EA source brings intriguing information from Qom. On Wednesday, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, whom Karroubi wrote last week, discussed next moves in the post-election crisis. Nouri-Hamedani reportedly said,  "I am ready to go to Tehran and talk to both sides" about a plan for national unity, and the two clerics (possibly joined by others) decided to seek a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

1440 GMT: And What is "The West" Doing? "Six world powers will meet in Brussels to discuss what measures could be applied against Tehran for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, an EU official said Thursday. Friday's meeting will include the U.N. Security Council's permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. — plus Germany, the official said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering."

1435 GMT: Negotiating from Strength, I Tell You. And hundreds of miles away in The Philippines, Foreign Minister Mottaki --- having put the Iranian counter-offer on uranium enrichment --- is serving as Ahmadinejad's wingman, warning against further sanctions on Iran: "“I think they [the world powers] are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences. Of course it's totally up to them."

1425 GMT: Mahmoud's Negotiating from Strength. Back from an academic break to read about President Ahmadinejad's speech in Tabriz today. His twin-track rhetoric is now established: the door is open to agreement with "the West", but Iran is holding that door open out of its principled leadership in the world, not out of weakness:

Iran is a nation supportive of peace and friendship and backs constructive cooperation on the international arena. Tehran is therefore ready to cooperate with the international community in different arenas including the revival of economy and the establishment of stable security across the globe....

....Iran is not after aggression. It only seeks its legal rights ... Those who say they want constructive interaction should know that...if the Iranian nation witnesses a genuine transparent change of their policy…if they respect the rights of the Iranian nation…if they honestly extend their hand of friendship then the people of Iran will accept [such overture]....

But the President added, "They should also know that if they are after deception and corruption in our region,” the Iranian nation would be the same “decisive” answer that it has already given to arrogant powers.

1140 GMT: Worst Media "Analysis" of the Day. In The Wall Street Journal, Mark "Black Hawk Down" Bowden explains, "How Iran's [1979] Revolution Was Hijacked". The historical part of the article is OK, with Bowden --- who has written a book on the US Embassy crisis -- claiming, "Nine months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled it was still unclear what kind of government Iran was going to have....[Ayatollah Khomeini] was ambivalent about the idea of clerical rule."

It's Bowden's jump to 2009 that turns reflection into farce: "So 30 years after seizing power, the mullahs of Qom find themselves in a difficult spot. To turn back the domestic tide of reform they must employ the very tools employed by the despised shah—mass arrests and trials, torture, execution and censorship."

Which "mullahs of Qom" would these be? Montazeri? Sane'i? Bayat-Zanjani? Dastgheib? Safi Golpaygani? Makarem Shirazi?

1050 GMT: The Preview of the Deal? Press TV, quoting from the Islamic Republic News Agency, has just posted a significant statement from Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who says that UN inspectors will visit the second uranium enrichment facility at Fordoo today.

Here is the key line, however, from Soltanieh: "This site will from now on be under the IAEA supervision." That may be an unsubtle olive branch to the international community for the bigger deal: you can oversee our facilities inside Iran, so you can trust that we'll let you oversee uranium stocks as well.

1000 GMT: So What About Those Sanctions? President Obama may be issuing the warning that he's opening up a can of economic pain if Iran does not accept a nuclear deal, but the signals --- which we've noted for weeks --- are that the US is limited in what it can do:

Western powers are gearing up for talks on a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program but will not target Iran's energy sector to ensure Russia's and China's support....The scaling back of the West's expectations for new U.N. steps against Iran for defying Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium shows that the Europeans and Americans have accepted that Moscow and Beijing, with their close trade ties to Tehran, will not let Iran's economy be crippled.

Diplomats said the Western powers are eager to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. But they also need to keep Moscow and Beijing on board to send a clear signal to Tehran that the world's big powers are united against it.

If there is a move for UN sanctions, they will target "at least another bank, more individuals, more companies -- possibly a shipping company -- a tighter ban on arms, possibly political measures". Meanwhile, Washington will fall back on the notion that it can organise multilateral restrictions outside the United Nations. Steps could include a ban on Euro transactions for Iranian and withholding technology to produce liquefied natural gas.

0855 GMT: Extending our initial update (0650 GMT), Mr Smith brings us the Analysis of the Day, considering the latest Iranian offer in the nuclear talks and advising the "West" how to respond to it.

0815 GMT: Anticipating the protests of 16 Azar (7 December), we have posted a video "advertisement" for the demonstrations which is a pretty good parody: Welcome to "The Pirates of the Persian Gulf".

0800 GMT: Away from the nuclear issue, Michael Slackman of The New York Times has picked up on the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-0ld physician at Kahrizak Prison who died in mysterious circumstances (see our updates throughout this week).

0650 GMT: International media is likely to be dominated this morning by stories on the nuclear negotiations. Most outlets have noted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's counter-proposal, replacing the delivery of 50-80% of Iran's uranium stock to Russia with a "swap" inside Iran of 20% enriched uranium for Tehran's 3.5% supply. And almost all are jumping on the soundbite reactions, from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to President Obama.

Obama warned again that time was short for a deal and "consequences" would follow if Iran did not accept an agreement. He did the same on Sunday but, on this occasion, he added a tough if vague post-script: "Our expectations are that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran." (It's notable that not only international media like Al Jazeera but also Iran's state broadcaster Press TV are carrying the story.)

But do the news agencies really have a handle on what is going on? CNN, for example, headlines, "Iran rejects key part of nuclear deal" and drops in, as one line in a 26-paragraph story, "Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran might allow its nuclear material to be reprocessed inside Iran."

In contrast, the Los Angeles Times devotes almost all of its article to Mottaki's statement. Its headline and opening sentence, however, are just as negative: "Iran's foreign minister vowed Wednesday that his nation wouldn't allow any of its enriched uranium supply out of the country." This is "either a dismissal of a U.S.- and United Nations-backed proposal to ease international tensions over Iran's nuclear program by lowering Tehran's supply below the threshold required to make a bomb, or an attempt by Iran to haggle over the deal".

None of the coverage considers that, from the perspective of the Ahmadinejad Government (and possibly others), Mottaki's response is far from a rejection or a dismissal. Instead, it is a counter-offer which keeps the discussions alive --- indeed, I suspect it may have come out of talks with International Atomic Energy head Mohammad El Baradei. It puts the question to the US and its partners: will they accept a bargain in which Iran's uranium supply is swapped for 20% fuel which is for civilian rather than military purposes? Or is the initial export and warehousing of the majority of Tehran's low-enriched supply an unconditional requirement?

Beyond the negotiating table, Mottaki's statement is a pointer to another story, one which I suspect will go unnoticed today. In the context of the Iranian establishment, this is an attempt to bring peace between battling factions. President Ahmadinejad wants an agreement --- not perpetual "haggling" but an agreement --- and Mottaki's suggestion keeps open that prospect. Others (the Larijanis? the Supreme Leader?) have consented to or been forced to accept the opening.

If the Washington-led "5+1" powers reject that proposal, however, what next? What next not only for the nuclear discussions but also for the interna contests in Iran?

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

NEW Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US "Spies"
NEW Iran: Shadi Sadr’s Speech Accepting “2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip”
NEW Iran Video Special: Ahmadinejad & Tehran’s “$18.5 Billion in Turkey”
NEW Iran Video Special: When Khamenei Met the US Hostage (and Why It’s Important Now)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Revelations of Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Son
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

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2110 GMT: Ezatollah Zarghami has celebrated getting a five-year renewal as head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, by alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are trying to get television airtime to incite people into joining street protests. Zarghami said this would be contrary to IRIB's objectives to "establish a stable social atmosphere" and help "society out of its instability".

1820 GMT: The Economic Issue Rumbles On. In addition to other challenges, President Ahmadinejad is still facing resistance from Parliament over his subsidy reduction bill. He returned from Turkey on Tuesday to go into a meeting with lawmakers, declaring that Iran will emerge as a prosperous nation in five years if the bill is implemented in full.

1815 GMT: Post-election detainee Soheil Navidi Yekta has been sentenced to seven years in jail and 74 lashes.

1800 GMT: More Posturing. The Iranian Government has taken another swipe at France, warning Paris to quiet down over the detention of lecturer Clotilde Reiss, who is under house arrest. A Foreign Ministry spokesman declared, 'The charges against Reiss are documented and therefore there can be no acquittal on grounds of political pressure, and nobody is allowed to tell the relevant judge what to do.

1755 GMT: The Mousavi Interview. We now have the video of Mousavi's comments on Monday, the text of which we posted earlier.

1525 GMT: More Business for the Revolutionary Guard. The BBC reports that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has won a $2.5 billion contract to build a railway route linking the southeastern port of Chabahar to Iran's rail network.

The Guards' engineering wing, Khatam-ol-Anbia, has been awarded Government contracts worth billions of dollars, including the operation of Tehran's Imam Khomeini international airport, and 50 percent of Iran's national telecommunication company was bought by a consortium partly owned by a Revolutionary Guards affiliate fund.

1510 GMT: Crippling the Opposition. In a sign of the effect of Government detentions and intimidation, the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organisation party has postponed its annual convention because of restrictions on members. The party's senior members Behzad Nabavi, Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, and Mostafa Tajzadeh have been detained since June. (English summary)

1500 GMT: We've posted an entry on how a comment in a US blog became the story of how "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met US spies".

1245 GMT: The "Neda Plot". As part of the ongoing campaign to portray the death of Neda Agha Soltan as a "premeditated scenario" to discredit the Iranian regime, Basij members are being summoned to gather in front of the British Embassy in Tehran to call for the extradition of Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to assist Neda after she was shot on 30 June. “Female Basij members are scheduled to congregate in front of the British Embassy on Wednesday at 2 p.m. local time,” Fars News reports.

1050 GMT: We awoke to reports of the hanging of Ehsan Fattahian, sentenced to death for "acting against national security with arms"and "war against God", but refrained from posting pending confirmation. That confirmation has now come from Fars News.

0900 GMT: We have posted the speech of activist Shadi Sadr accepting the "Human Rights Defenders Award" in The Netherlands: "Before the eyes of the people who are now fighting for freedom, democracy and human rights in Iran, one cannot sit at a negotiation table with a dictatorial government to speak about nuclear energy or economic contracts and talk about concrete conditions and at the same time, criticise the state of human rights in Iran through political statements which have no actual guarantee to be put into action."

0840 GMT: Not quite sure what to make of this, amidst stories of Iran's reorganisation of control over its security forces. Press TV reports, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has appointed Iran's interior minister as deputy commander of the country's Armed Forces in charge of police forces. In a decree issued by Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Tuesday, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar was handed the post of deputy commander."

0800 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, so EA correspondents have taken the opportunity to make some important political connections in a series of videos.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's put-down of a BBC Persian correspondent, who asked about the rumoured $18.5 billion in gold shifted from Iran to Turkey, may not add much beyond a bit of drama. However, the impassioned speech of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mohsen at a 17 June meeting offers important insight into the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad relationship.

And the footage of the Supreme Leader meeting an American hostage (now the highest-level official ever devoted specifically to Iran affairs in the US State Department) is far more than a nostalgic clip. It may point to the emerging, and special, political "engagement" between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Obama Administration.

Of course, none of this should eclipse the significance, on the opposition side, of the discussion of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, covering the failings of the Government and the need to restore unity through a return to the Constitution. More than 36 hours after the interview was posted, we have the English translation.