The Latest on Iran (28 November): Turning Attention Back to Tehran

1945 GMT: Reports that today's gathering of mothers of political prisoners, held every Saturday in Laleh Park in Tehran, was attacked by security forces with tear gas. Despite the assault, 150 people participated.

1915 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Posturing. It comes from commander Mohammad Ali Jafari: "The era of threatening Iran with force is over, especially at a time when the majority of Iranians are willing to defend the Revolution and their country."

Speaking in Shiraz, Jafari added that the intimidation "even failed at the height of the nuclear issue, and now Iran is standing firm despite economic, political and cultural pressures".

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Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? A Discussion on (Non)-Violence
Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion
The Latest from Iran (27 November): Where Now?

1815 GMT: Tough talk. The Associated Press is featuring a statement by Mohammad Karimirad, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, declaring that Iran should block IAEA inspections and consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The media are also noting hostile statements from the Revolutionary Guard.

All this is to be expected, both in the posturing and in the reaction of Western media. None of it means much at this stage. Wait for a signal from the Iranian Government on its next step in the uranium enrichment discussions.

1715 GMT: My thanks to EA reader Samuel for pointing out that Ahmad Khatami's denunciation of the IAEA resolution was made today and not during Friday Prayers. My apiologies to readers for my error.

1330 GMT: Offensive Images. At left is the picture --- a tourist advertisement with a Baha'i temple --- that led to the banning of Hamshahri, the prominent newspaper linked to Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

1320 GMT: Press TV's website has now posted a summary of Ahmad Khatami's Friday Prayer attack on the IAEA resolution on Iran's nuclear programme: "Rather than hurting Iran, the new resolution will impair the UN nuclear watchdog and Security Council."

So nothing significantly new there. Instead, this question: why did it take Press TV 24 hours to post news from Friday Prayers?

0920 GMT: Friday Prayers and Nukes. Agence France Presse notes that Ahmad Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, put in his two cents on the nuclear talks:

It is your obligation, under the law, to provide fuel for the Tehran reactor. If you did this, the issue would be closed. If you do not cooperate you should know that the nation ... which achieved its rights to technology will also provide fuel for its reactor. It is legal and in accordance with international safeguards.

0900 GMT: Don't Mention Neda. Two weeks ago we noted that Queen's College, Oxford University, had established a postgraduate scholarship in philosophy in the name of Neda Agha Soltan, the philosophy student killed on 20 June by a Basiji gunshot.

Well, it appears that it's not only the Iranian Government that is unhappy with the endowment:

A senior [British] diplomatic source said that the Government would have advised Queen’s College not to set up the scholarship when Britain is desperately trying to free local embassy staff in Iran who have been detained by the regime for their alleged involvement in the protests.

“If we were asked, we would have advised against it because it was always going to be deemed as provocative by the Iranian Government,” the source said. “But Oxford University did not ask us about setting up the scholarship, and does not have to because it is an independent educational institution.”

The diplomatic signal here for Tehran is that the scholarship is in no way "official" and should not be seen as pressure by the British Government over Iran's internal developments.

0815 GMT: With media attention primarily on Iran's nuclear programme and the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, we've had to give over time and space to an analysis pointing out the real significance of the IAEA resolution, unnoticed by the headline media: the US Government has just bought some more time to try and get an "engagement" deal on uranium enrichment.

Time to return to Iran, however, and notice the simmering within the Establishment. In Qom, Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli announced from the podium that the Friday Prayer was his last. The declaration was one of sadness and frustration: “When the Friday Imam articulates the problems that people face and those problems are resolved, it is evidence that he has expressed them well. But if the problems are not resolved that means he was not successful.”

Javadi-Amoli's decision is a setback for those seeking voices of reconciliation, but it is also a marker of the discontent amongst Iran's clerics. Another leading Qom Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Ostadi, had also suspended his sermons after denouncing "extremism" in support of the regime, including the Supreme Leader.

In Tehran, the curious, confusing, and significant story of the Parliamentary challenge to President Ahmadinejad took another twist yesterday. Khabar, which apparently has been suspended in print but continues to publish online, features criticism by leading members of Parliament against the Government's handling of the nuclear talks.

The Secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has met 40 MPs who back the Government, and Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the National Security Commission, tried to quell the opposition with assurances that information on the negotiations will be provided. The stinger in the Khabar article, however, comes at the end: two weeks ago, when MPs "were notified [by Jalili] about the decisions made by" the Ahmadinejad Government, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and other leading principlist legislators were not invited.

The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
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NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 4th Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)

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1905 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).

1845 GMT: From the Streets. We've posted an eyewitness account by Persian  Umpire, which can be compared with that of our correspondent Mr Azadi, of the 13 Aban demonstrations.

1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for "information", this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein Karroubi:

On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.

There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.

1725 GMT: What does "Obama, You're With Them or You're With Us" Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, "What Does Iran's Green Movement Want from Obama?".  Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran's human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.

1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today's service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge.

The first is an apparent "concession" in the hard line normally set out by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami. He began with his portrayal of a small, foreign-backed group trying to disrupt the pro-Government rallies on 13 Aban: "Out of the hundreds and thousands of people who take to the streets, only one or two thousand shouted [for the Greens]...."Americans must not be happy, as there is no red carpet waiting for them." And he pressed the evil sponsor theme: "My brothers and sisters who have fallen in the wrong and incorrect track, look who is supporting you, those who were named by the late imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] as 'blasphemous' and [whose] Islam was called 'Americanized Islam'. The miserable monarchists are supporting you."

Yet Khatami then offered a way back to the fold, "What is wrong if you follow the mainstream of the nation? Come back to the embrace of the nation and the nation will accept your repenting and remorse....Of course the criminals’ cases are different and they should be punished."

That apparent sign of reconcilation was not matched by an opening for the US. To the contrary, Khatami was so loud in his denunciation of Washington that it heightens suspicions that Iran --- possibly against the line set out by President Ahmadinejad --- is walking out on the nuclear talks. Khatami declared, "Since the 1953 coup against [Mohammad] Mosaddegh, the U.S. has done nothing except treason against our nation, and since the beginning of our revolution, as [Khomeini] said, we can compile a book about the crimes committed by the US", and he brought the story to the present, with the Obama Administration instigating ethnic groups and releasing $50 million for "toppling our system". Khatami concluded, "As long as the U.S. will not give up its arrogant character, our nation is not going to be engaged in satanic negotiations."

Khatami's line was introduced by Alaedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee, who denounced protesters for following the line of the Voice of America: "The leaders [of the opposition] used to be high-ranking officials. Now, they repeat the same slogans."

So, if Khatami is speaking for others higher up in the regime, is this an attempt to ease the internal conflict by offering an olive branch to the "less serious" offenders? And will this be matched by a linking of the "more serious" offenders --- say, the leaders of the opposition movement --- to the US, even if that means a suspension of engagement with the "West"?

Most importantly, is this shift in strategy a sign of weakness or strength? I'm voting for the former.

1430 GMT: Will The Regime Break The Opposition? Following our previous entry, Mr Smith checks in, "We may have underestimated the police resolve: Iranian human rights groups are now reporting that no less than 400 people have been picked up in the streets on 13 Aban and are now in Evin Prison."

I do not think we missed this. Rather, we may be seeing an important juncture in the post-election crisis. As we have noted over the last 48 hours, the Ahmadinejad Government may be lost for a political strategy, but it can still try to use blunt force to survive by pounding the opposition into submission.

1255 GMT: The Government Acts. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has confirmed that reformists Ali Tajernia, Saeed Shariati, and Ebrahim Amini will be tried on Saturday. Ahmad Zeidabadi and Behzad Nabavi will be in court on Sunday, and Mohammad Atrianfar will appear on Monday.

An Iranian activist is offering running updates on the latest developments with detentions and forthcoming court hearings.

1245 GMT: What Has Mohammad Khatami Been Doing? The former President, who has kept a low profile in recent days including 13 Aban, has resurfaced with a visit to Morteza Alviri, the former mayor of Tehran and Mehdi Karoubi’s representative on the committee to investigate detainee abuses, in his home. Alviri was arrested in a raid on Karroubi's offices in September and released on bail last week.

Khatami offered general remarks, praising Alviri's courage and long service to Iran.

1200 GMT: I can't help thinking that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has been seriously distracted by last month's bombing in southeastern Iran.

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the IRGC's Deputy Commander, has given a lengthy interview to Fars News about the threat from Jundallah. He goes on at length about foreign support of the Baluch insurgents but this is the headline claim: Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi was arrested in September but was released after interference from Pakistani intelligence services.

It's not a question of the attention that the Revolutionary Guard is now paying to the southeastern situation rather than to the internal challenge. Allegations like these are bound to complicate the Government's relations with neighbours such as Pakistan.

1155 GMT: Agence France Presse reports that four journalists --- two Canadian, 1 Japanese, and 1 Iranian working for AFP --- were arrested on 13 Aban.

1145 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, known for his fierce denunciation of post-election opposition, led the prayers in Tehran, and he did not ease up on the evil of a Green movement led by the United States.

1. Observers should not mistake a "small group" of agitators backed by Washington as the message of 13 Aban, given the "flood surge" of people who came out for the Iranian nation, Government, and Supreme Leader.

2. Iran's great success in nuclear energy is being led by Ayatollah Khamenei. The West "says we should build confidence but we do not have confidence in you".

3. Give us the uranium for Iran's medical research reactor. Now.

4. The US is arrogant, but Iran will never negotiate with evil.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Face-Off. With news from inside Iran slow this morning, the Iranian Government has kept attention on the international talks. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has maintained on IRIB television, "The Islamic Republic examines all the proposals. We have examined this proposal, we have some technical and economic considerations [which need to be addressed]." Mottaki's remarks were an indirect response to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's insistence that the draft arrangement on uranium enrichment would not be changed.

Mottaki has also used remarks to the Islamic Republic News Agency to poke at the "superficial" comments of the French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner.

0935 GMT: Really, I'm Going to Speak...but Football First. Fars News Agency reports:

President Ahmadinejad's speech to the nation has been postponed because of Thursday night's World Cup football match between Iran and Uruguay.

The President will speak after 9 p.m. on Saturday on the nuclear issue, the economy, and in particular information technology.

Postponed because of the football? Call me cynical, but postponed because of uncertainty and disarray is a less dramatic explanation. The original story was that the President would appear on Thursday, irrespective of any prospect that he might be overshadowed by a sporting event; the delay points to a Government that is trying to figure out how to respond to the show of opposition on 13 Aban.

0825 GMT: Following the assessments by Mr Smith and by Chris Emery of the outcomes of 13 Aban's marches, EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers his assessment of the day's events and their political impact.

0735 GMT: Balancing our criticism of the rush by some back to the haven of Iran as Nuclear Threat, other newspapers do keep an eye on the opposition and internal developments. The Huffington Post has a feature on Mahmoud Vahidnia, the mathematics student who challenged the Supreme Leader during a speech last week. And The New York Times publishes a commentary by Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris on "The Message from Tehran".

0700 GMT: An Enduring America reader wrote with concern a few hours ago, "Today was suspiciously quiet. No videos coming out and no statements....I’m not sure what to make of it." Josh Shahryar's excellent analysis, posted in a separate entry, offers an answer. I would add: 1) this lull happened after previous large demonstrations of opposition, as on 30 July and 18 September; 2) a pause was to be expected after the rush of energy and fortitude on 13 Aban; 3) the movement is already gathering itself for the next show of defiance, with planning beginning for Students Day on 16 Azar (7 December).

That's not to say that other folks are already leaving the party. The Washington Post exits with great haste to its priority of the nuclear issue. It features an article claiming, from the ever-present unnamed official, "Iran is demanding full delivery of reactor fuel before it gives up its stash of low-enriched uranium and has balked at further efforts to hold international talks on its nuclear program." That, however, is fair-and-balanced reporting next to the paper's editorial calling for an immediate cutoff of talks and twisting 13 Aban to fit that demand:

On Wednesday, the opposition protesters chanted: "Obama, Obama -- either you're with them, or with us." Sooner rather than later, Mr. Obama ought to respond to those messages.

The rush away from Iran to the nuclear front is likely to be accelerated by an "exclusive" in The Guardian this morning, "Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report". Apparently "Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design...known as a 'two-point implosion' device," and "nuclear experts" find this "breathtaking".

Translation: a "Western" official (US, European, or from the International Atomic Energy Agency) decided --- from genuine concern, a desire to wreck the enrichment talks, or both --- to leak another headline from the controversial 2008 IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme. Without seeing the actual text, it is impossible to know the significance of the alleged warhead design. Indeed, two sentences deep in a side analysis in The Guardian tip off that this is far from an "imminent threat" story:

Most but not all of the material in the dossier relates back to the period before 2004. It does not necessarily conflict with the US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, that found it likely that Iran suspended weaponisation work in 2003.

That, I suspect, will not deter media from racing to panic stations over the claim.

The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave

NEW Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
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Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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2135 GMT: For What It's Worth. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated sharply, possibly in response to Mohammad El Baradei's revelation that the International Atomic Energy Agency is looking for a compromise for the Vienna third-party enrichment agreement, "This is a pivotal moment for Iran. We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed and we will not alter it and we will not wait forever."

Whether the US Government holds this line, effectively suspending engagement, remains to be seen. It should be noted, however, that the "late October" window for the meeting of the 5+1 powers with Iran to seal a deal --- originally projected at the start of October when direct discussions between the US and Iran resumed in Geneva --- has come and gone.

1900 GMT: Shutting Away Journalists. Reporters Without Borders writes, “At least 100 journalists and cyber-dissidents have been arrested" in Iran since 12 June "and 23 of them are still being held. More than 50 journalists have left the country and those who have stayed are subject to constant harassment.”

The organization notes that, in addition to the arrest of Agence France Press correspondent Farhad Pouladi (see 1045 GMT), Nafiseh Zareh Kohan, a journalist who writes for various pro-reform newspapers, and blogger and human rights activist Hassin Assadi Zidabadi were arrested yesterday.

1850 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. It looks like Iran will get the all-clear on the second uranium enrichment plant near Qom, which caused such a fuss when it was "outed" by Western countries in September after Tehran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei said inspectors found "nothing to be worried about" in their visit in late October. "The idea was to use it as a bunker under the mountain to protect things," in contrast to the open-air enrichment plant at Natanz, El-Baradei said. "It's a hole in a mountain."

El Baradei also said he was examining possible compromises to resolve the draft Vienna agreement on third-party enrichment, which Tehran balked at signing.

1830 GMT: Pedestrian, who often drops in on the EA comment section, offers an overview of 13 Aban and ponders, "What Now?":

Mousavi keeps referring to “social networks” and “communities”. The trick with that is that it makes individuals much more vulnerable. If people were to begin organizing events in their own community, they would be giving away their privacy: their address and their name could be identified. Any antagonist in the neighborhood could easily blow up their efforts. Before the revolution, people met in mosques. Each neighborhood has a mosque. Now, at least from rumors we hear, people might have even been held up in mosques. Whether these rumors are true or not, mosques are no longer an alternative (and amen to that!).

Be it in schools, in neighborhoods, at work - it seems to me as if smaller group activity may be a better alternative from now on.

1645 GMT: Catching Up. We've finally had a moment to post the English translation of a written interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, on the eve of 13 Aban, on the 1979 US Embassy takeover, Iran's relations with the US, Russia, and China, and the state of the Iranian Government.

We're also posting the best of a steady stream of videos coming into us.

1545 GMT: A Crisis for Khamenei? Chris Emery, responding to this morning's analysis by Mr Smith, asserts that 13 Aban was "a major blow to Khamenei's authority". (We also have Mr Smith's reply.)

1345 GMT: Radio Zamaneh reports that families of those detained yesterday have clashed with security forces in front of the Vozara detention centre. It is also reported that the families blocked a bus taking detainees from Vozara to Evin Prison.

1340 GMT: The Regime Strategy. I think the response to 13 Aban may now becoming evident. While there is uncertainty over President Ahmadinejad's speech (some outlets quote Fars News as saying it will be on Saturday) and the general political response, the Government persists in trying to break the Green movement through arrests. A reliable Iranian source is passing on steady information about the detentions of student activists.

1330 GMT: Yes, State Media Setback. A follow-up to our 0745 entry: Press TV is now posting about a demand from Al-Alam, Iran's state Arab-language satellite channel, for an explanation from its Saudi hosts as to why it was taken off the air.

1300 GMT: Not So Weak. In a sign that the regime will press ahead with a heavy hand to deter opposition, it has been announced that Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, will appear in Revolutionary Court on Sunday. This follows yesterday's hearing for two other post-election detainees, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi.

1050 GMT: Weak. What is striking about the "official" reaction to the 13 Aban protests is its relative lack of strength. Because they are not acknowledging and indeed featuring the opposition, as Press TV has, other outlets seem to be stumbling in their attempt to wish away the protest.

Fars News is no longer playing up its hostile recognition of the marches, blaming Hashemi Rafsanjani's son for leading 50-100 "goons" (and explaining that Mehdi Karroubi arrived at an empty 7 Tir Square after the goons were shooed away by Iranian security forces). Instead, it features an interview a member of the Confederate Party of Islamic Clergy who praises youth for being ready to stand against the arrogance of internal and external enemies. The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to focus on President Ahmadinejad's hosting of the Emir of Qatar.

Of course, this could all change with a forceful speech by President Ahmadinejad. For now, however, Is sense uncertainty.

1045 GMT: An Iranian reporter working for Agence France Presse was arrested during yesterday's demonstrations. The whereabouts of Farhad Poulardi are unknown.

0845 GMT: How the Green Wave Swept Over Press TV.

This was the opening of the state media's English-language report on its website at 1115 GMT, "Iranians mark US embassy takeover":

Rallies marking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover in Tehran have started in capital Tehran as well as other cities across the country.

Tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and many political persuasions have staged a rally at the site of the former US embassy in Tehran, better known in Iranian history as the 'Den of Spies'.

But this was overtaken by the opening of the report posted at 1930 GMT, "Opposed rallies on US Embassy takeover anniversary":

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.

It was only in the 5th paragraph that the article noted, "Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day, dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance."

0745 GMT: State Media Setback? Egypt's Middle East News Agency reports that Iran's Arabic-language satellite TV channel, Al-Alam, has been taken off the air by two Arab-controlled satellite companies.

The official explanation form Nilesat and Arabsat is "breach of contract", but there according to Egypt's MENA news agency, but there is speculation that Arab governments want to curb the reach and influence of the channel.

0740 GMT: Complementing our correspondent Mr Azadi's eyewitness report, the Green Freedom Wave has also posted a detailed summary of events throughout Iran yesterday.

0725 GMT: We start this morning with an apology. 13 Aban was notable not just for the events in Iran, but for the birthday of the daughter of one of our correspondents. In the flurry of events, we forgot to offer our best wishes.

Our correspondent noted, "I used to be happy she was born on 13 Aban because it marked my defiance of the Americans. Now I am happy because it coincides with another movement." But will there be celebrations today as well? We've posted an analysis by Mr Smith and a first-hand account from the streets of Iran. We're hoping another analysis will follow this morning, and we'll posting more videos that have emerged.

At the moment the biggest buzz, at least for CNN, is that President Ahmadinejad will be giving a televised speech. No clues yet as to content. Unsurprisingly, no sign either of the opposition's next move, as breath is caught after yesterday's emerging if partial triumph.

The Latest from Iran (3 November): 8 Hours to Go

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities (3 November)
NEW Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
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Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
Latest from Iran (2 November): The World Takes Notice?

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2200 GMT: And So To Tomorrow. We're going to pull down the curtain for a few hours, but please keep bringing in news and comments. Back at 0600 GMT for what should be quite a big day, indeed.

2115 GMT: An Embassy Apology (see 1730 GMT). Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has said that, “considering the negative effects and heightened sensitivity” it produced amongst Americans, the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 was a “mistaken” act.

Montazeri said the seizure, which led to the holding of 52 American hostages for 444 days, was akin to “declaring war on that country” and claimed that even “some of the revolutionary and committed youth, who were instrumental in that act at the time, now believe that it was a mistake".

2050 GMT: Did You Write This with a Straight Face? Mehr News' English-language site offers a classic one-eye-shut view of events: "Call for massive turnout on Aban 13 rallies".

Here are the groups calling for that turnout: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Navy branch (“Iran’s great nation, especially students [should] commemorate the day and foil the plot of the enemies of the Islamic Revolution"), Moderation and Development Party, Islamic Association of Teachers, Ministry of Defense, Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom ("vigilance of nation against the enemies’ attempts to undermine this epical day"), Iran's judiciary (“national unity, solidarity, obedience of the Supreme Leader, and resistance against hegemonic powers’ plots [will mark] the beginning of the downfall of the US").

Gee, anyone missing from that list? You know, any other groups that may have been today, all day, throughout the day in these updates?

2040 GMT: Homy Lafayette has posted routes of the marches in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, Ahvaz, and Bushehr.

2035 GMT: More videos from universities in Iran --- Ferdowsi and Sajad in Mashaad in the east, Mazandaran in the north.

1950 GMT: Getting Louder. We've got video of tonight's "Allahu Akhbar" chants from Tehran rooftops.

1830 GMT: An EA source sends us the news that Ali Pir-Hosseinloo, a translator and book editor, blogger, and member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been freed from jail after spending 50 days in solitary confinement.

1805 GMT: Yet another video of protest at another Iran university. This one is from Yasouj University in southwestern Iran.

1745 GMT: Did We Mention 13 Aban is Tomorrow? The Washington Post puts out a story on today's speech by the Supreme Leader (see 1030 and 1230 GMT), "Iran's Khamenei rejects U.S. outreach, warns against talks". The authors, Thomas Erdbrink and William Branigan, pays much attention to the "harshest comments against the Obama administration to date" but never once considers that they may have some connection to the internal situation as well as the discussions on the nuclear programme.

Number of words in article: 1135
Number of references to 13 Aban protests: 0

1730 GMT: Fact and Rumor. Having had a go at Borzou Daragahi poorly-timed misrepresentation of the Green movement in the Los Angeles Times (see separate entry), it's only fair that we cast a critical eye on a story trying to boost the opposition.

In The Daily Telegraph, Damien McElroy and Ahmad Vahdat proclaim, "Iran Opposition to Apologise to US for Embassy Siege". Now, as our readers' comments suggest, people may fervently wish that is true, but there is a bit difference between wishing and reality.

The story is based on a single source: "Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an exiled film-maker who spearheads the opposition campaign overseas, said Iranians should repudiate the events of 1979, when a group of pro-regime agitators took over the US embassy and held diplomats and other occupants."

Makhmalbaf has been a high-profile, vocal proponent of the Green movement throughout this crisis but in no way is he a spokesman for the policies and plans of Iranian opposition groups. His desire for an overturn of the 1979 actions is not equivalent to a Green manifesto.

I fear that, once more, the problem is that non-Iranian media reduce Iranian actions and ideas to "what have you done for the US lately?". While it may be desirable to find reconciliation over the past, there is a lot more to be considered in the present.

1645 GMT: And an Important Assurance. The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, adding to its call for participation in 13 Aban protests (see 0630 GMT) has warned of rumours that there will be violent action against foreign embassies, with the Green movement then accused of the attacks. The MIR stressed that the Green Wave is a civil, peaceful, and anti-violence movement and and warned followers not to fall for these traps and disinformation.

1630 GMT: Another Declaration for 13 Aban (see 0630 GMT). Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist Student Alumni Organisation, has announced, “We will participate in the celebration against the internal tyranny and dictatorship.” The organisation declares that students, as sons and daughters of Iran, have always been at the forefront of fight for democracy and against oppression, and 4 November will be another chapter in this historic effort (English summary).

1505 GMT: Rooz Online has further details on our earlier report (see 1025 GMT) that members of the One Million Signatures for Gender Equality campaign have been summoned to the Revolutionary Court.

1500 GMT: Tip of the Iceberg. We've posted a clip from today's protest at Kashan University, south of Tehran.

An EA source tells us, however, that our reports and videos are only a small part of what is occurring. In Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashaad, university students are demonstrating.

1230 GMT: We've posted the first video footage we've received of today's university protests, coming from Azad University in Tehran.

1210 GMT: Khamenei Says, "Wouldn't You Rather Say Death to America?" The more I read about the Supreme Leader's speech to students today, the less it appears as an intervention in the nuclear talks and the more it feels like a rather clumsy attempt to channel protest against Washington, rather than having those students come out against the Government.

On the surface, Khamenei was acknowledging the "beautiful words" of President Obama to ask if they carried any meaning: “The Islamic Republic of Iran decided from the very beginning not to prejudge and to instead consider the slogan of 'change'. But what we have witnessed in practice during this period of time has been in contradiction with the remarks that have been made."

However, the warning that "Americans talk of negotiations" while "they continue to threaten and say the negotiations must have our desired results or we will take (punitive) measures" seems to carry a significance beyond the recent Vienna discussions and framework agreement: it's no coincidence that tomorrow's "official" 13 Aban rally is in front of the former US Embassy.

1200 GMT: So Much for a Quiet Day. I had thought that, with anticipation of tomorrow's events, all might be in a state of political suspense today.

Fat chance. In addition to the Khamenei speech (see 1030 GMT), which we still have to interpret, President Ahmadinejad has made an extraordinary intervention behind his Government's proposals to reduce subsidies, replacing them with cash handouts for poorest Iranians.

Ahmadinejad showed up at the Parliament, unannounced, to give a five-minute speech defending his proposals. The appearance brought loud protests, with members complained to the Speaker, Ali Larijani, about the "unconstitutional behavior". When Larijani declared the complaints valid, Ahmadinejad threatened to withdraw his economic reforms. This caused further chaos in the chamber.

1125 GMT: Laying Down The Line --- The "Proper" March. Tehran's police force has announced that the "proper" 13 Aban rally, markking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, would be held in front of the building. It added that holding any other demonstrations in Tehran is “illegal": "The police will strongly confront people or groups intending to create unrest and unlawful behavior, based on its legal responsibilities."

1030 GMT: Khamenei --- Targeting Nuke Talks or Protesters? Agence France Presse, from Iran state media, reports on the Supreme Leader's speech on the eve of 13 Aban. It focuses on the nuclear talks, quoting Khamenei, "We do not want any negotiation, the result of which is pre-determined by the United States. A dialogue like this is like a sheep and wolf relation, which the late imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) has said that we 'do not want'."

Now is that a direct challenge to engagement or is a not-so-coded attempt to link internal opposition to the foreign enemy, less than 24 hours before mass rallies? You decide: Khamenei warned he would not allow people with "ill-intentions" towards Iran to "throw out a red carpet for the United States".

1025 GMT: An EA source informs us of a mass summons, by phone and in writing, of women activists to the Security Branch of the Revolutionary Courts. So far five activists --- Maryam Malek, Jelve Javaheri, Kave Mozzafari, Parisa Kakaee, and Khadijeh Moghaddam -- have reported that they have received written summons on 21 October to appear in court within three days. Six other members have reported that they have been contacted by telephone and are awaiting summons.

1015 GMT: The Public Prosecutor's Office in Tehran is calling for public "consciousness" of the significance of 13 Aban --- read a warning to protestors not to show up and an admonition to others to be on guard against trouble-makers --- as a "national day against global arrogance".

0930 GMT: Reuters has picked up on the call of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, for the release of women detained during the post-election crisis.

0925 GMT: For the second time in less than 24 hours, I have written about an article in a US newspaper which, in my  opinion, undermines the Green movement in the service of misplaced priorities. This time my concern has been provoked by a piece by Borzou Daragahi in the Los Angeles Times.

0810 GMT: Noticing Politics, Noticing Tomorrow. The international media will be in Afghanistan overload today, but Michael Slackman of The New York Times puts out a useful analysis, "Iran’s Politics Stand in the Way of a Nuclear Deal". Slackman's takeaway, based on interview with his US-based pool of analysts, is, "[Iran's eqivocation] may be as much a product of the nation’s smoldering political crisis as it is a negotiating tactic."

0630 GMT: At this time tomorrow, people will be gathering at various points in Tehran and other Iranian cities for the ceremonies of 13 Aban and for demonstrations. A day which the regime has marked as the anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 by students is likely to take on a very different political symbolism.

Initial news today is of preparations for the gathering. Campaign 88, the youth supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, has invited the Green nation of Iran to participate in the rallies. The statement offers a nice transition from past struggles against foreign powers to current internal issues: 13 Azad has been the symbol of fighting against tyranny and oppression in the political history of our countrybut the campaign is now influenced by the movements against tyranny closer to home. The campaign declares that Mousavi will be participating and call on all members to make the tyrants and oppressors hear the cry for freedom of Iranians.

The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, declaring it will be participating in the rallies alongside other Green reformists, said the history of the past 200 years of Iran chows this fact that domestic tyrants who are hopeless and do not have the support of the people inevitably seek backing from foreigners. If the principle in foreign relations is the national interest, a government that has legitimacy and the support of the people will fulfill this responsibility. Reformists will seek “comprehensive execution of the constitution and the institutionalisation of the rights and freedoms mentioned" in that document.