The Latest in Iran (19 November): It's the Nukes Today

NEW Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor’s Account
NEW Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
NEW Iran’s 16 Azar Video: Greens Fight “The Pirates of the Persian Gulf”
The Latest Iran Video: Demonstration at University in Karaj (17 November)
Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months
The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
The Latest from Iran (18 November): Bubbling and Surfacing

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2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran's national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.

Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.

2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of "popular welcoming staff" of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.

An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.

1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government's Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.

Sweden currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

1800 GMT: Clinton Speaks Out? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared to journalists in Kabul:

It is a very unfortunate, distressing development to see these sentences handed down in Iran, imposing the death penalty on people who participated in expressing their opposition to the government in demonstrating in the streets.It underscores the approach that the government in Iran takes for their own people.

We will continue to stand up for the rights of the people of Iran to speak for themselves, to have their votes counted, to be given an opportunity to have the measure of freedom and rights that any person deserves to have

1755 GMT: What Happened on Election Night? We've posted the account of Abolfazl Fateh, the editor of Ghalam News, a paper close to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1550 GMT: Football Politics. In its latest friendly match, Iran's national football team drew 1-1 with Macedonia. The Tehran Times says 1000 people attended; an EA source says the number was closer to 500.

Still, that's better than the 100 who turned up at the match earlier this month with Iceland.

1455 GMT: The Clerics Plot. An EA source brings intriguing information from Qom. On Wednesday, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, whom Karroubi wrote last week, discussed next moves in the post-election crisis. Nouri-Hamedani reportedly said,  "I am ready to go to Tehran and talk to both sides" about a plan for national unity, and the two clerics (possibly joined by others) decided to seek a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

1440 GMT: And What is "The West" Doing? "Six world powers will meet in Brussels to discuss what measures could be applied against Tehran for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, an EU official said Thursday. Friday's meeting will include the U.N. Security Council's permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. — plus Germany, the official said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering."

1435 GMT: Negotiating from Strength, I Tell You. And hundreds of miles away in The Philippines, Foreign Minister Mottaki --- having put the Iranian counter-offer on uranium enrichment --- is serving as Ahmadinejad's wingman, warning against further sanctions on Iran: "“I think they [the world powers] are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences. Of course it's totally up to them."

1425 GMT: Mahmoud's Negotiating from Strength. Back from an academic break to read about President Ahmadinejad's speech in Tabriz today. His twin-track rhetoric is now established: the door is open to agreement with "the West", but Iran is holding that door open out of its principled leadership in the world, not out of weakness:

Iran is a nation supportive of peace and friendship and backs constructive cooperation on the international arena. Tehran is therefore ready to cooperate with the international community in different arenas including the revival of economy and the establishment of stable security across the globe....

....Iran is not after aggression. It only seeks its legal rights ... Those who say they want constructive interaction should know that...if the Iranian nation witnesses a genuine transparent change of their policy…if they respect the rights of the Iranian nation…if they honestly extend their hand of friendship then the people of Iran will accept [such overture]....

But the President added, "They should also know that if they are after deception and corruption in our region,” the Iranian nation would be the same “decisive” answer that it has already given to arrogant powers.

1140 GMT: Worst Media "Analysis" of the Day. In The Wall Street Journal, Mark "Black Hawk Down" Bowden explains, "How Iran's [1979] Revolution Was Hijacked". The historical part of the article is OK, with Bowden --- who has written a book on the US Embassy crisis -- claiming, "Nine months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled it was still unclear what kind of government Iran was going to have....[Ayatollah Khomeini] was ambivalent about the idea of clerical rule."

It's Bowden's jump to 2009 that turns reflection into farce: "So 30 years after seizing power, the mullahs of Qom find themselves in a difficult spot. To turn back the domestic tide of reform they must employ the very tools employed by the despised shah—mass arrests and trials, torture, execution and censorship."

Which "mullahs of Qom" would these be? Montazeri? Sane'i? Bayat-Zanjani? Dastgheib? Safi Golpaygani? Makarem Shirazi?

1050 GMT: The Preview of the Deal? Press TV, quoting from the Islamic Republic News Agency, has just posted a significant statement from Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who says that UN inspectors will visit the second uranium enrichment facility at Fordoo today.

Here is the key line, however, from Soltanieh: "This site will from now on be under the IAEA supervision." That may be an unsubtle olive branch to the international community for the bigger deal: you can oversee our facilities inside Iran, so you can trust that we'll let you oversee uranium stocks as well.

1000 GMT: So What About Those Sanctions? President Obama may be issuing the warning that he's opening up a can of economic pain if Iran does not accept a nuclear deal, but the signals --- which we've noted for weeks --- are that the US is limited in what it can do:

Western powers are gearing up for talks on a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program but will not target Iran's energy sector to ensure Russia's and China's support....The scaling back of the West's expectations for new U.N. steps against Iran for defying Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium shows that the Europeans and Americans have accepted that Moscow and Beijing, with their close trade ties to Tehran, will not let Iran's economy be crippled.

Diplomats said the Western powers are eager to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. But they also need to keep Moscow and Beijing on board to send a clear signal to Tehran that the world's big powers are united against it.

If there is a move for UN sanctions, they will target "at least another bank, more individuals, more companies -- possibly a shipping company -- a tighter ban on arms, possibly political measures". Meanwhile, Washington will fall back on the notion that it can organise multilateral restrictions outside the United Nations. Steps could include a ban on Euro transactions for Iranian and withholding technology to produce liquefied natural gas.

0855 GMT: Extending our initial update (0650 GMT), Mr Smith brings us the Analysis of the Day, considering the latest Iranian offer in the nuclear talks and advising the "West" how to respond to it.

0815 GMT: Anticipating the protests of 16 Azar (7 December), we have posted a video "advertisement" for the demonstrations which is a pretty good parody: Welcome to "The Pirates of the Persian Gulf".

0800 GMT: Away from the nuclear issue, Michael Slackman of The New York Times has picked up on the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-0ld physician at Kahrizak Prison who died in mysterious circumstances (see our updates throughout this week).

0650 GMT: International media is likely to be dominated this morning by stories on the nuclear negotiations. Most outlets have noted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's counter-proposal, replacing the delivery of 50-80% of Iran's uranium stock to Russia with a "swap" inside Iran of 20% enriched uranium for Tehran's 3.5% supply. And almost all are jumping on the soundbite reactions, from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to President Obama.

Obama warned again that time was short for a deal and "consequences" would follow if Iran did not accept an agreement. He did the same on Sunday but, on this occasion, he added a tough if vague post-script: "Our expectations are that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran." (It's notable that not only international media like Al Jazeera but also Iran's state broadcaster Press TV are carrying the story.)

But do the news agencies really have a handle on what is going on? CNN, for example, headlines, "Iran rejects key part of nuclear deal" and drops in, as one line in a 26-paragraph story, "Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran might allow its nuclear material to be reprocessed inside Iran."

In contrast, the Los Angeles Times devotes almost all of its article to Mottaki's statement. Its headline and opening sentence, however, are just as negative: "Iran's foreign minister vowed Wednesday that his nation wouldn't allow any of its enriched uranium supply out of the country." This is "either a dismissal of a U.S.- and United Nations-backed proposal to ease international tensions over Iran's nuclear program by lowering Tehran's supply below the threshold required to make a bomb, or an attempt by Iran to haggle over the deal".

None of the coverage considers that, from the perspective of the Ahmadinejad Government (and possibly others), Mottaki's response is far from a rejection or a dismissal. Instead, it is a counter-offer which keeps the discussions alive --- indeed, I suspect it may have come out of talks with International Atomic Energy head Mohammad El Baradei. It puts the question to the US and its partners: will they accept a bargain in which Iran's uranium supply is swapped for 20% fuel which is for civilian rather than military purposes? Or is the initial export and warehousing of the majority of Tehran's low-enriched supply an unconditional requirement?

Beyond the negotiating table, Mottaki's statement is a pointer to another story, one which I suspect will go unnoticed today. In the context of the Iranian establishment, this is an attempt to bring peace between battling factions. President Ahmadinejad wants an agreement --- not perpetual "haggling" but an agreement --- and Mottaki's suggestion keeps open that prospect. Others (the Larijanis? the Supreme Leader?) have consented to or been forced to accept the opening.

If the Washington-led "5+1" powers reject that proposal, however, what next? What next not only for the nuclear discussions but also for the interna contests in Iran?

The Latest from Iran (14 November): Political Fatigue?

NEW Iran: The Political Attack on the National Iranian American Council
Iran Text: Khatami on Legitimate Protest and Illegitimate Government (13 November)
Iran: Is This an “Unravelling” Protest Beyond Mousavi and Karroubi?
Iran: Why is Washington Belittling the Green Movement?
The Latest from Iran (13 November): Accusations

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1330 GMT: Iranian sources report that a fifth post-election death sentence for threatening national security has been handed down in the case of Reza Khademi.

1325 GMT: A summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's comments in his meeting with Mehdi Karroubi on Friday: "This great movement defends basic values. This movement says, 'Do not tell lies. Falsehood is condemned. Fraud is condemned.'

"Those who beat people must not think that by intimidating people they can make people stay home. Islam has taught people seek their rights without fear."

1145 GMT: Reviving? Mir Hossein Mousavi has met Mehdi Karroubi "to comfort [cleric]. about the physical assult on him by the security forces and plainclothes militia at the November 4th [13 Aban] rallies and to condemn and talk about the violent acts of the security and Basij militia forces against people, especially women on that day".

1140 GMT:Cracking Down on the Students. Abdollah Momeni, the spokesman of the reformist student organisation Darhat-Tahkim-Vahdat, has been sentenced to eight years in prison!

1130 GMT: When Arts and Politics Mix. President Ahmadinejad, acting as the head of the Revolutionary Cultural Council, has changed the existing constitution of the Academy of Arts, possibly to prepare for the dismissal of Mir Hossein Mousavi as the President of the Academy. Under the amendment, the President of the Academy would be appointed directly by the Iranian President, without any requirement for consultation with the members of the Academy.

During President Khatami’s administration, it was established that the President of the Academy would be elected by the permanent members of the Academy’s General Assembly, and the president as the head of the Revolutionary Cultural Court would approve the nominee.

0955 GMT: The Department to Combat US Conspiracies.

The Chair of the Human Rights Committee of Parliament's Human Rights Commmittee has suggested raising the amount devoted to exposing US human rights violations and combatting its conspiracies to $50 million. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Information formed a special agency with a $20 million budget to foreign-backed "velvet revolution".

0945 GMT: Oh, Yeah, We're Tough. A bit of posturing from the Iranian military, declaring that Iran is will mass-produce a new generation of air-to-air, heat-seeking missiles tracking targets via infrared emission.

Air Force commander Brigadier General Hassan Shah-Safi said that the missile haved been successfully test-fired in different situations. It has a range of up to 100 kilometers.

0750 GMT: At the risk of walking into a political firestorm, I have posted a separate entry on the current attacks on the National Iranian American Council.

0630 GMT: Days after the execution of Ehsan Fattahian, another Kurdish political dissident, Shirkooh Maarefi, is facing death for "activities against national security and armed combat".

0550 GMT: A very quiet morning for news from Iran. Indeed, looking back over the updates, a relatively development-free 48 hours. President Ahmadinejad's Wednesday night interview, for all its  important signals on the nuclear issue as well as his grab for power against the Tehran local government, has drifted away with little discussion. On the other side, the Khatami statement to academics on legitimate protest and illegitimate power has also received scant attention --- the reaction I have seen and heard points to scepticism over whether the former President has said anything of significance, particularly given his public absence on 13 Aban. The Mousavi statement on Monday to Jamaran has not resonated, and Mehdi Karroubi has been silent this week.

Of course, none of this means that everyone can pack up and go home --- no more to see in this post-election crisis. It does highlight, however, the debate over the path of the Green movement as it moves towards the next marker of 16 Azar (7 December) for mass demonstrations. Throughout this conflict, I have thought of the necessary linkage of a widespread movement "from below", with its energy and demands to be recognised and respected, with the political moves of political and clerical figures. However, Hashemi Rafsanjani is now pursuing a divergent agenda. Mousavi appears at a loss how to act beyond periodic statements, especially as he cannot link them to a symbolic public appearance. While Karroubi continues to inspire interest and hope in many, the last few days illustrate the fragility of relying on him. And, lacking that political lighting rod for their criticisms, the dissenting clerics of Qom have been muted since 13 Aban.

So, given the effect of the Government's constrictions and the toll of political complications on the efforts of "leaders", can the linkage be set aside for a different movement? In other words, can the Green Wave not only be propelled but directed from below? 13 Aban was a success in the sense that it proved resistance was ongoing, despite the lack of leadership from the top. The question may be whether that resistance, planning its next big move in just over three weeks, can translate symbolic defiance into pressure upon the regime between as well as during those high-profile moments.

The Latest from Iran (9 November): Assessing the Government

NEW Iran: An Eyewitness on 13 Aban “Protest An Inseparable Part of People’s Lives”
NEW Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions
Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests
NEW Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban & from Today (8-9 November)

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2030 GMT: We're still waiting for an English translation of today's Mir Hossein Mousavi newspaper with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family (see 1015 GMT). The headline is Mousavi's declaration that Iran is "vulnerable" in the current political situation: “People who entered the scene of the Revolution did not do it to suffer such difficulties. They came to secure their freedom and welfare, and if the system fails to deliver, it will lose its legitimacy for certain.”

2020 GMT: An EA reader has sent us the petition, printed in full in the comments below, to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to commute the death sentence of Ehsan Fatahian, a 28-year-old Kurd who is scheduled for execution on Wednesday. Fatahian was initially given a 10-year prison term for “plotting against national security” but this was changed to a death sentence by an appeal court when the charge “waging war against God” was added.

2000 GMT: Back from a break to find excellent material from readers. With university demonstrations continuing today, we've posted four clips from a rally at Azad University, Khomeini Shahr, outside Isfahan.

An EA reader describes, in a comment below, today's  ceremony awarding the Human Rights Defenders Tulip to Iranian lawyer and human/women’s rights activist Shadi Sadr in The Hague.

Tomorrow (10 November) at 12:00 CET she will present a film, Women in Shrouds, and hold a Q&A about human rights in Iran. If anyone here would like to ask her a question through me, please post it here in these comments.

1645 GMT: Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist student and alumni organisation, has issued a statement announcing that it will withstand the oppression of "coup agents" with all of its organisational power, even as almost half of its key members are imprisoned or sought by the security forces.


The significance beyond this general assertion is that when the organisation issued a statement of defiance on the eve of 13 Aban, the regime arrested three of its leading members. So renewing this show of resistance is a clear signal that, less than a month before the next mass rally on 16 Azar (7 December), the students will not be cowed into silence.

1630 GMT: Hillary Responds and Iran's State Media Takes Note. No surprise that Secretary of State Clinton would offer a boiler-plate response to the news of the charging of the three hikers:

We believe strongly that there is no evidence to support any charge whatsoever. And we would renew our request on the behalf of these three young people and their families that the Iranian government exercise compassion and release them so they can return home. And we will continue to make that case through our Swiss protecting power, who represents the United States in Tehran.

More interesting, perhaps, that the statement would be prominently featured on Press TV's website.

1440 GMT: The Story Beyond the Headline Story --- 3 US Hikers Charged with Espionage. Western media will be dominated for the next 24 hours by the breaking news that three Americans who strayed across the Iraq-Iran border will be charged with spying, according to Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi.

Here's the unreported dimension of the event. The news came through only hours after the US representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Glyn Davies, offered Washington's olive branch in the nuclear talks:

"There have been communications back and forth. We are in extra innings in these negotiations. That's sometimes the way these things go....We want to give some space to Iran to work through this. It's a tough issue for them, quite obviously, and we're hoping for an early positive answer from the Iranians."

Davies' kind words appear to be tied to the new Iranian counter-proposal (see separate entry), which in visit may be linked to Russian intervention through the visit of its Deputy Foreign Minister to Tehran this weekend.

So is the Iranian Government playing a cunning game where it can engage the US with one hand and strike at Washington, via its citizens,  with the other? Or are we now seeing a schizophrenic Government in which one group is pursuing negotiations while another is going for intimidation?

1225 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the CIA. The politics around the President's "engagement" with the US, given the regime's simultaneous post-election use of "velvet coup" to crack down on opponents, is getting very confusing.

The Iranian Labor News Agency features an interview with conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri, who says that  some of the journalists and scholars who met with Ahmadinejad, presumably during the President's trip to New York, were undoubtedly CIA operatives. Shakeri says this is common US practice and occurred in previous encounters with Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami.

For Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh, the interview is enough to become the sensational revelation that the President has met CIA officials. That, of course, is part of the current opposition campaign to question the President's duplicity in negotiating with the Obama Administration while denouncing the evils of the US.

1145 GMT: We have received a moving and thoughtful e-mail from an EA reader, offering an eyewitness summary of the importance of 13 Aban. It is posted in a separate entry.

1110 GMT: Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General who organised the first post-election trials and has been linked to the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, may be moving post for the second times in three months. Mortazavi became Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General but may now become head of the economic crimes division of the Justice Ministry.

1015 GMT: Green Publicity. Mir Hossein Mousavi has spoken with Jamaran, the newspaper of the Khomeini family, about the need for unity through adherence to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic. This is the second major interview Jamaran has featured in 72 hours, having spoken with former President Mohammad Khatami this weekend.

0945 GMT: Why are Bread Prices Rising? EA correspondent Mohammad Khiabani, who specialises in analysis on the Iranian economy, has a look at the recent increase in bread prices (see yesterday's updates), "This is not completely unrelated to subsidy removals, since merchants often increase prices in future expectation of inflation, which of course leads to inflation." This from the US Open Source Center:

In its November 8 issue, Hemayat said that the two traditional breads including Barbari and Sangak were being sold for 600 and 2,000 tomans, respectively (approximately 1,000 tomans = US $1). The newspaper said that, coming before the announcement of the new rates for bread, evidence shows that the increase in prices is more than what was officially declared. Officials had declared new rates for the traditional bread in the first week of November. Under this scheme the price per bread for unsubsidized Sangak is 400 tomans and in subsidized bakeries it is 175 tomans.

Jomhouri Eslami headlined: "New wave of expensive bread". The report pointed out that the offenders are overcharging while the authorities are only giving warnings. Jomhuri Islami reported the cost of bread in various Tehran neighborhoods. In southern Tehran Barbari costs 150 tomans, Pasadaran (northeast) 200 tomans, Saadatabad (northwest) 250 tomans, Shahrake Gharb (northwest) 300 tomans, Shahrake Omid (northeast) 500 tomans, Ketabi Square (north) 600 tomans.
As for the Sangak, which uses a more expensive flour and baking process, it was sold in Pasdaran for 1,000 tomans, Saadatabad 700 tomans, and Shahrake Gharb for 2,000 tomans.

0900 GMT: Iran's Telecommunications Privatised. Press TV reports:

An Iranian consortium has signed a deal to buy 50 percent plus one of the shares of Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI) for around eight billion dollars. According to the deputy of Iran's Privatization Company, the related contract was signed Sunday with an Iranian consortium named Etemad Mobin Development that includes three firms.

"The historical deal was signed after an article was added to the $7.8 billion text of the contract according to which the buyer will be committed to the charter of TCI," said Mehdi Oghadaei.

0805 GMT: The muddle inside Iran on the nuclear negotiations and a useful but disturbing New York Times article this morning prompt us to offer an analysis, "Iran's Nuclear Programme: Washington's Unhelpful Misperceptions".

0640 GMT: Unsurprisingly, Iranian state media are playing up the meetings of President Ahmadinejad with Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. No details are offered, though Erdogan has recently been supportive of Iran's line on its nuclear programme, criticising its Israeli counterpart.

0610 GMT: An EA reader sends in a piece of interesting information about Internet trends inside Iran. The search volume for Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a fervent opponent of the regime from his exile in the US, is twice that for Mehdi Karroubi.

Not sure of the significance of this; any ideas would be welcome.

0600 GMT: We'll be trying to put the pieces together on where the Iranian Government is heading, even if those involved don't know where they fit.

President Ahmadinejad is in Ankara for the meeting of the economic committee of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which raises the possibilities of the Government going into a holding phase or (more likely) others manoeuvring while Ahmadinejad is away.

One of the events which may or may not be significant in those calculations continues to be debated today. We initially speculated that Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, travelled to Najaf in Iraq to see senior clerics because of the internal discussions in Tehran. EA correspondent Josh Mull has been putting the alternative that Larijani saw Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and others to encourage passage of the law for Iraqi elections in January, and other observers also back that view.

On the opposition side, there is a lot of Internet chatter this morning about Mehdi Karroubi's webcast yesterday, recounting the events of 13 Aban and criticising the Government's manipulation of the issue of relations with the US. And discussion is picking up over a planned demonstration at Shiraz University today.

The Latest from Iran (4 November --- 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 3rd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November --- 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities and a High School (3 November)
Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
The Latest from Iran (3 November): 24 Hours to Go

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2100 GMT: Today's #1 Unseen Story. With all the developments on the streets, I doubt many noticed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi and journalist Hengameh Shahidi appeared in the Revolutionary Court today. Shahidi was released last week on $90,000 bail after going on hunger strike; Abtahi has been in detention since June.

Instead of defending herself, Shahidi asked the judge to free her friend Fariba Pajooh, whose order for detention was reaffirmed two weeks ago.

1902 GMT: Josh Shahryar, having gone through the videos and reports of today's events, estimates that 25,000 to 30,000 opposition demonstrators were on the streets of Tehran at some point during 13 Aban. An estimated 2000-3000 were marching in Isfahan, but there is not enough information yet to project the numbers in other cities.

1900 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has posted an overview of the events of 13 Aban, the "Greenest day of the year".

1845 GMT: Following today's encounter between Mehdi Karroubi and Iranian security forces near 7 Tir Square, we've posted the video of the BBC interview with Karroubi's son.

1755 GMT: Has Press TV Joined the Cause? Really. Here is the lead of their latest report on 13 Aban, and notice who gets first billing:

Thousands of supporters of defeated presidential candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have held a rally in the Iranian capital as the country commemorated the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover.

The main anti-government rally took place at a central square in Tehran on Wednesday, November 4, our correspondent Leila Faramarzi reported.....

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to commemorate the day [of the anniversary of the US Embassy takeover], dubbed as the national day of fighting global arrogance. They also decried the policy of the Obama administration towards the Islamic Republic.

1725 GMT: Reports that activist Hasan Asad Zaidabadi, student activist Ali Mashmooli, journalist Nafiseh Zare-Kohan, women's rights activist Wahideh Molavi, and politicians Hojjat Sharifi, Ali Maleehi, Mohammad Sadeghi, and Mohammad Hashemi were arrested today. Coming on top of the regime's detention of three leading members of the reformist student organisation Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat, the news is apparent confirmation of the Government's strategy to break the core of the opposition movement.

Mowj-e-Sabz has a longer list of names of some of those arrested today.

1605 GMT: We've started a third set of videos.

1555 GMT: And More Cities.... Reports now confirm protests in Kermanshah and Zahedan.

1540 GMT: Parleman News has just published a story, with excellent photos, covering the diversity of both pro-Government and opposition protests in Isfahan.

1505 GMT: More on What Happened to Mousavi (see 1315 and 1345 GMT).

Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh reports that all communication, including cell phones and internet connections, were shut down in the area surrounding the Farhangestan Academy of Art, where Mousavi’s office is located. Dozens of plainclothes bikers, supported by security forces, gathered in front of both entrances, chanting against Mousavi. One group attacked and entered the Academy of Arts.

The attackers backed off, but Mousavi’s car, which was planning to take the leader to the rally, was prevented from exiting the Academy by the heavy presence of security forces.

1425 GMT: Regime Goes After Rafsanjani?

Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed, in contrast to previous rallies, Hashemi Rafsanjani from our updates today. Once events have settled, our analysis will probably have to account for a Green movement that can no longer for backing from or even convergence with the former President.

That doesn't mean, however, that the regime is not keeping an eye on Rafsanjani. Fars News has just posted a lengthy article claiming that his youngest son, Yaser, was leading a group of 50-100 protesters at 7 Tir Square. Police dispersed them and arrested some of the "goons", who had damaged property. Mehdi Karroubi was forced to leave the square after seeing no one had turned up.

1350 GMT: Another Snap Analysis (see 0920 GMT).

Just before noon, I had drafted a fairly pessimistic reading of today's events, based on the rather limited turnout of "thousands" (compared to expectations), the security forces' push-back against Mehdi Karroubi, and the lack of news from other leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi. Marchers had been unable to achieve their primary goal of getting to major gathering points for a mass statement.

Some of my EA colleagues still hold this view, but I'm now withdrawing my draft. There are too many spontaneous and re-routed gatherings to say that the Green movement has been suppressed. And the footage that we are coming from outside Tehran, more than in previous rallies, indicates that there is a spread of the opposition.

Moreover, while the quantity of protestors may be less than expected, the strength of the sentiment is not to be underestimated. Despite all the regime's intimidation and threats, demonstrators are openly calling the Supreme Leader a "murderer" and stomping on his picture. Security forces may able to use tear gas and bullets in the air to keep them from the largest squares but they cannot remove them from the streets.

There is a half-empty argument that the spread of protest through the city shows the weakness of the Green movement, as security forces can risk moving from the key points to pursue demonstrators through the city. The half-full response is that those protestors --- whether fleeing or chanting or standing firm --- are being seen.

13 Aban is now 14 hours old.

1345 GMT: We've Found Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at home this morning. He is at the Farhangestan Cultural Center, completely surrounded by plainsclothes security forces. Some have attacked and entered the building, while others are outside chanting.

1315 GMT: And Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi? According to Rah-e-Sabz, he is under house arrest since early morning, surrounded by security forces.

1305 GMT: More on the Karroubi Incident (see 0930 and 1054 GMT).

Mehdi Karroubi got out of his car about 1,800 feet away from 7 Tir Square. About 300 feet from the square, security forces stood before Karroubi and stopped him from going further. Tear gas was fired at where Karroubi stood. One of his guards was hit on the head with a shell and was hospitalized. Karroubi suffered skin irritation and small burns from the tear gas and was forced to leave the area.

Karroubi returned to his car, which was attacked by security forces and badly damaged. The car finally moved towards Motahhari Avenue; along the way, Karroubi got out of the car many times to talk to people. (hat tip to Josh Shahryar)

1220 GMT: Too Many Good Clips. So we've started a second set of videos to add to our first collection.

1205 GMT: Another City? Josh Shahryar has reports of a rally in Isfahan with 2000-3000 people.

1150 GMT: Next Green Wave? Reports of protests and clashes throughout Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Avenue and Square, in front of the dormintory at the Polytechnic, Beh-Afareen Avenue, and Hafez Avenue. People are moving towards Vanak Square.

1123 GMT: Oops! It appears that the Iranian Labor News Agency was a collateral-damage victim when the Government cut off communications today. It seems that ILNA was unable to update its website for hours because of disruptions to Internet service around Enghelab Square.

1054 GMT: So What Happened to Karroubi? One of Mehdi Karroubi's sons, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, has spoken to Radio Farda about this morning's events in 7 Tir Square. He says Karroubi was prevented from reaching the square by police forces. Two bodyguards were injured, as well as many other people, as police forces shot tear gas canisters at Karroubi and the surrouding crowd. (One of the bodyguards is still in hospital.) Karroubi's son also says that his father did not pack up and go home but joined people in other squares.

1045 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which seems to be back to full speed, has a lengthy summary of the morning's events. It adds Tabriz and Arak to the list of cities where protests have occurred.

1025 GMT: Regrouping. After what appears to be the setback at 7 Tir Square, Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer website has put out a denunciation of the "forces of dictatorship" of the police, security forces, and Revolutionary Guard who have confronted the "thousands of Iranian people" who protested this morning.

The statement appears, at this point, to be an admission that numbers of marchers have been relatively low ("thousands" rather than "tens of thousands"), putting the blame on the oppression of the regime.

1000 GMT: More on Government Strategy - Constrict and Shut Down Opposition. It appears Mowj-e-Sabz, the best source inside Iran for developments today, is running sporadically and slowly.

0940 GMT: The Guardian is reporting, from "a contact", more clashes in Ghaem Magham Farahani street near 7 Tir Square with some people covered in blood.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar passes on reports that many people were detained this morning and held in Al-Javad mosque in Tehran. We are trying to verify.

0930 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that Mehdi Karroubi was beaten by "pro-coup forces and thugs" when he joined marchers near 7 Tir Square. We are treating this claim with great caution until we can get further information.

0920 GMT: Deep Breath Time.

We're assessing here at end of Act One of today. So far, the headline events are disappointing for the Green movement: Mehdi Karroubi showed up at 7 Tir Square but soon had to withdraw (whether because of risk of violence, threat of arrest, or another reason is unclear). Security forces have prevented large gatherings at other major sites. And there has no sign of, or even word from, figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

On the other hand, it is still relatively early in the day. Following patterns of earlier encounters, including Qods Day, the anti-Government movement will now move into a series of hit-and-run protests throughout Tehran. And there is already news of marches in other cities. That alone should keep attention on the demonstrations.

But will there be motivation and opportunity for the scattered marches to merge into one large symbolic presence, taking this day beyond 30 July and Qods Day and reviving the first post-election mass demonstrations?

0915 GMT: Blinkered Media (3). From EA correspondent: IRIB's domestic channel is no longer showing live footage of the pro-Government rally. An "expert" in the studio is blasting Western media for making up stories of anti-Government protests: "They picked up footage from [our] News Channel but implied through their own subtitles that something else is happening on the streets of Tehran. They are implying that anti-Revolutionary activity is happening on the streets of Tehran."

0910 GMT: Reports of protests on Khogare Shomali Avenue in Tehran.

0905 GMT: We're bouncing back from a computer problem to bring you up to speed. Four videos from today --- three from Tehran, one from Rasht --- are posted in a separate entry.

Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting a large protest in Shiraz. That makes three cities besides Tehran where marches have been confirmed: Shiraz, Mazandaran, and Rasht.

0835 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Smith checks in to give a snap analysis:

The Revolutionary Guard wasn't joking. As feared, the threats were real.

No sign of Mousavi or Khatami--- they have been cowed off the streets. However,
the Ferdowsi Square clashes are significant, as Ferdowsi is nowhere close to the ruote of Karroubi. That shows the spontaneity of these protests. They are basically there alone --- no leader in sight --- which shows the "movement from below" nature of this crisis.

0830 GMT: Reuters is first "Western" news service to report, "Mousavi supporters clash with police in Tehran". BBC English has followed.

0825 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is also reporting on clashes at Ferdowsi Square. Josh Shahryar is reporting that Internet connections have been severely disrupted inside Iran. Cellphone service sporadic.

0810 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is now posting on the morning events. It has pieces on Karroubi's march to join the crowd, shooting "at the crowds" (we are treating this as an exaggeration of shots fired in the air), beatings and arrests, and the Mazandaran protest.

0800 GMT: Momentum. We are now treating the reports of Karroubi in the crowd as confirmed; a second good source is carrying the news.

And news is coming in of protests outside Tehran. We are treating news of a gathering in Mazandaran in northern Iran as probable, and there are unconfirmed claims of protests in Shiraz, Arak, and Isfahan.

0750 GMT: A Big Moment? It is being reported that Mehdi Karroubi is moving towards 7 Tir Square to join crowds.

0745 GMT: Report that "100s walk towards 7 Tir square holding up V signs. No anti-government chants. Cars honk in heavy traffic jams".

And Josh Shahryar writes that he has confirmation that some people have been beaten up in the clashes at Tehran University and near 7 Tir Square.

0740 GMT: As with previous marches, we are in a tricky early phase where it is hard to separate truth from rumour on the clashes between security forces and protestors. At this point, it appears that the forces are trying to disperse the crowds, using tear gas and possibly firing shots into the air.

0730 GMT: Press TV English have now joined Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for live coverage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy.

0725 GMT: Earlier this morning security forces arrested Mohsen Amoozadeh, a member of youth wing of the Mousavi campaign.

0715 GMT: Government Strategy Unfolds. Reports of clashes at 7 Tir Square and between University students and security forces, as Government attempts to keep people away from the major gathering points.

0710 GMT: Latest from Twitter:

1. Security forces are completely alert at Ferdowsi and are equipped with combat helmet, batons and tear gas.
2. Forces have taken over Enghelab [Square] across from Ferdowsi.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strategy. OK, I think I have a read on how the Government is trying to shut down this day of opposition. Seal off major gathering points such as 7 Tir Square and bottle up groups like University students from reaching them. Broadcast non-stop footage of the pro-Government rally outside the US Embassy and hope no one notices the protests.

So far they seem to have had some success, but we're getting reports of "thousands" in locations from 7 Tir Square to Laleh Park and this day has only begun.

0645 GMT: Blinkered Media (2). CNN, to its credit, is highlighting the Iran story, but it is off to a bad start. The anchor started the 0610 GMT report with, "Demonstrations are underway to mark the anniversary of the US Embassy siege, and some anti-establishment protests are also expected." However, because CNN's correspondent, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, is outside the US Embassy, he sees only the thousands of students and police and army cadets chanting  "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" and singing "nationalistic slogans".

Bozorgmehr continues, "I see no sign of counter-demonstrations by the opposition on the streets at all," which is not surprising since the Green rallies are beginning in other parts of Tehran. And so he keeps saying, "So far they haven't shown up."

0640 GMT: Latest reports via Twitter:

1. Helicopter are flying, roads are still filled with anti-riot and security police. People have not fully formed groups yet.
2. Tehran University students are leaving the university by chanting "Down with Dictator". Riot police are blocking students from exiting.

0630 GMT: Blinkered Media (Part 1). And how is Press TV covering 13 Aban so far? Live shots of pro-Government crowd outside the US Embassy with voiceover, "Iran marks 30th anniversary of seizure with anti-US rallies". Not a word, unsurprisingly, on gatherings elsewhere in Tehran.

And then the channel switches to a 30-minute profile of Jundallah, the Baluch insurgent group responsible for last month's suicide bombing in southwestern Iran.

0625 GMT: Your Comic Media Highlight of the Day.

I am not making this up. When we started blogging this morning, Press TV's English service was broadcasting a documentary called "Electile Dysfunction".

For a moment, I thought Iranian state media had decided, belatedly, to consider the incidents on and after the 12 June Presidential election. But only for a moment --- this was an old documentary on the corruptions, biases, and inequalities of the US electoral process.

0620 GMT: Reports that people starting to gather in 7 Tir Square. Also reported that Sharif University students are moving towards Tehran University in center of the city.

0600 GMT: We have posted the text of President Obama's statement on Iran. At first glance, it is extremely clever: Obama turns the history of the 1979 Embassy takeover into his desire to "move beyond this past and seek a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect".

Obama then moves to the current nuclear talks --- "if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community" --- but it is his shift to the situation inside Iran that is most significant. Having already declared, "We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs," he concludes:

Iran must choose. We have heard for thirty years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

To my knowledge, this is the first direct comment by a high-level US official, let alone Obama, on Iran's political situation since June.

0555 GMT: Initial reports from Iranian sources via Twitter:

1. There are reports of heavy anti-riot police and plainclothes present in 7 Tir [Square in Tehran].
2. Family friend from Shiraz: Military and Police surrounding TV and radio station.
3. All streets ending to former US Embassy are closed.

0550 GMT: EA correspondent Josh Shahryar has written a special analysis for 13 Aban, considering the Green movement in the context of the 1989 risings in Eastern Europe and China: "Fictions and Realities of 'Revolution'".

0530 GMT: Good morning.

It is 9 a.m., local time, in Tehran, and we are in place for a day which --- from my distant perception --- has produced the greatest excitement and highest expectation since early in the post-election crisis. As an EA reader summarised yesterday, putting 13 Aban in the context of the last mass march in Iran:

On Qods Day [18 September] we were full of fear and doubt. I personally didn’t know how big the crowd will be, we went out and throw our hearts at the sea.

Tommorw I have no doubts that there will be masses on the street. Tomorrow I have no fear when I march, for I have faced fear in the face, and won on Qods Day.

Only a fool would predict what is to unfold, but my fool's sense is that this gathering will surpass even the hundreds of thousands who emerged in various marches and gatherings on Qods Day. In the last six weeks, the Government has tried and failed to blunt, let alone crush the opposition movement. Mehdi Karroubi's symbolic appearance at the Iran Media Fair, Mir Hossein Mousavi's statements with renewed vigor and hope, the building university demonstrations, and just the amount of information and video reaching us and the world: all support our reader. Hope accompanies and possibly trumps fear, desires for the future trump resignation and passivity.

Today is 13 Aban.

The Latest from Iran (3 November): 8 Hours to Go

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities (3 November)
NEW Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Latest Iran Video: Protest & Hunger Strike at Sharif University
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
Latest from Iran (2 November): The World Takes Notice?

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2200 GMT: And So To Tomorrow. We're going to pull down the curtain for a few hours, but please keep bringing in news and comments. Back at 0600 GMT for what should be quite a big day, indeed.

2115 GMT: An Embassy Apology (see 1730 GMT). Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has said that, “considering the negative effects and heightened sensitivity” it produced amongst Americans, the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 was a “mistaken” act.

Montazeri said the seizure, which led to the holding of 52 American hostages for 444 days, was akin to “declaring war on that country” and claimed that even “some of the revolutionary and committed youth, who were instrumental in that act at the time, now believe that it was a mistake".

2050 GMT: Did You Write This with a Straight Face? Mehr News' English-language site offers a classic one-eye-shut view of events: "Call for massive turnout on Aban 13 rallies".

Here are the groups calling for that turnout: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Navy branch (“Iran’s great nation, especially students [should] commemorate the day and foil the plot of the enemies of the Islamic Revolution"), Moderation and Development Party, Islamic Association of Teachers, Ministry of Defense, Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom ("vigilance of nation against the enemies’ attempts to undermine this epical day"), Iran's judiciary (“national unity, solidarity, obedience of the Supreme Leader, and resistance against hegemonic powers’ plots [will mark] the beginning of the downfall of the US").

Gee, anyone missing from that list? You know, any other groups that may have been today, all day, throughout the day in these updates?

2040 GMT: Homy Lafayette has posted routes of the marches in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, Ahvaz, and Bushehr.

2035 GMT: More videos from universities in Iran --- Ferdowsi and Sajad in Mashaad in the east, Mazandaran in the north.

1950 GMT: Getting Louder. We've got video of tonight's "Allahu Akhbar" chants from Tehran rooftops.

1830 GMT: An EA source sends us the news that Ali Pir-Hosseinloo, a translator and book editor, blogger, and member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been freed from jail after spending 50 days in solitary confinement.

1805 GMT: Yet another video of protest at another Iran university. This one is from Yasouj University in southwestern Iran.

1745 GMT: Did We Mention 13 Aban is Tomorrow? The Washington Post puts out a story on today's speech by the Supreme Leader (see 1030 and 1230 GMT), "Iran's Khamenei rejects U.S. outreach, warns against talks". The authors, Thomas Erdbrink and William Branigan, pays much attention to the "harshest comments against the Obama administration to date" but never once considers that they may have some connection to the internal situation as well as the discussions on the nuclear programme.

Number of words in article: 1135
Number of references to 13 Aban protests: 0

1730 GMT: Fact and Rumor. Having had a go at Borzou Daragahi poorly-timed misrepresentation of the Green movement in the Los Angeles Times (see separate entry), it's only fair that we cast a critical eye on a story trying to boost the opposition.

In The Daily Telegraph, Damien McElroy and Ahmad Vahdat proclaim, "Iran Opposition to Apologise to US for Embassy Siege". Now, as our readers' comments suggest, people may fervently wish that is true, but there is a bit difference between wishing and reality.

The story is based on a single source: "Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an exiled film-maker who spearheads the opposition campaign overseas, said Iranians should repudiate the events of 1979, when a group of pro-regime agitators took over the US embassy and held diplomats and other occupants."

Makhmalbaf has been a high-profile, vocal proponent of the Green movement throughout this crisis but in no way is he a spokesman for the policies and plans of Iranian opposition groups. His desire for an overturn of the 1979 actions is not equivalent to a Green manifesto.

I fear that, once more, the problem is that non-Iranian media reduce Iranian actions and ideas to "what have you done for the US lately?". While it may be desirable to find reconciliation over the past, there is a lot more to be considered in the present.

1645 GMT: And an Important Assurance. The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, adding to its call for participation in 13 Aban protests (see 0630 GMT) has warned of rumours that there will be violent action against foreign embassies, with the Green movement then accused of the attacks. The MIR stressed that the Green Wave is a civil, peaceful, and anti-violence movement and and warned followers not to fall for these traps and disinformation.

1630 GMT: Another Declaration for 13 Aban (see 0630 GMT). Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist Student Alumni Organisation, has announced, “We will participate in the celebration against the internal tyranny and dictatorship.” The organisation declares that students, as sons and daughters of Iran, have always been at the forefront of fight for democracy and against oppression, and 4 November will be another chapter in this historic effort (English summary).

1505 GMT: Rooz Online has further details on our earlier report (see 1025 GMT) that members of the One Million Signatures for Gender Equality campaign have been summoned to the Revolutionary Court.

1500 GMT: Tip of the Iceberg. We've posted a clip from today's protest at Kashan University, south of Tehran.

An EA source tells us, however, that our reports and videos are only a small part of what is occurring. In Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashaad, university students are demonstrating.

1230 GMT: We've posted the first video footage we've received of today's university protests, coming from Azad University in Tehran.

1210 GMT: Khamenei Says, "Wouldn't You Rather Say Death to America?" The more I read about the Supreme Leader's speech to students today, the less it appears as an intervention in the nuclear talks and the more it feels like a rather clumsy attempt to channel protest against Washington, rather than having those students come out against the Government.

On the surface, Khamenei was acknowledging the "beautiful words" of President Obama to ask if they carried any meaning: “The Islamic Republic of Iran decided from the very beginning not to prejudge and to instead consider the slogan of 'change'. But what we have witnessed in practice during this period of time has been in contradiction with the remarks that have been made."

However, the warning that "Americans talk of negotiations" while "they continue to threaten and say the negotiations must have our desired results or we will take (punitive) measures" seems to carry a significance beyond the recent Vienna discussions and framework agreement: it's no coincidence that tomorrow's "official" 13 Aban rally is in front of the former US Embassy.

1200 GMT: So Much for a Quiet Day. I had thought that, with anticipation of tomorrow's events, all might be in a state of political suspense today.

Fat chance. In addition to the Khamenei speech (see 1030 GMT), which we still have to interpret, President Ahmadinejad has made an extraordinary intervention behind his Government's proposals to reduce subsidies, replacing them with cash handouts for poorest Iranians.

Ahmadinejad showed up at the Parliament, unannounced, to give a five-minute speech defending his proposals. The appearance brought loud protests, with members complained to the Speaker, Ali Larijani, about the "unconstitutional behavior". When Larijani declared the complaints valid, Ahmadinejad threatened to withdraw his economic reforms. This caused further chaos in the chamber.

1125 GMT: Laying Down The Line --- The "Proper" March. Tehran's police force has announced that the "proper" 13 Aban rally, markking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, would be held in front of the building. It added that holding any other demonstrations in Tehran is “illegal": "The police will strongly confront people or groups intending to create unrest and unlawful behavior, based on its legal responsibilities."

1030 GMT: Khamenei --- Targeting Nuke Talks or Protesters? Agence France Presse, from Iran state media, reports on the Supreme Leader's speech on the eve of 13 Aban. It focuses on the nuclear talks, quoting Khamenei, "We do not want any negotiation, the result of which is pre-determined by the United States. A dialogue like this is like a sheep and wolf relation, which the late imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) has said that we 'do not want'."

Now is that a direct challenge to engagement or is a not-so-coded attempt to link internal opposition to the foreign enemy, less than 24 hours before mass rallies? You decide: Khamenei warned he would not allow people with "ill-intentions" towards Iran to "throw out a red carpet for the United States".

1025 GMT: An EA source informs us of a mass summons, by phone and in writing, of women activists to the Security Branch of the Revolutionary Courts. So far five activists --- Maryam Malek, Jelve Javaheri, Kave Mozzafari, Parisa Kakaee, and Khadijeh Moghaddam -- have reported that they have received written summons on 21 October to appear in court within three days. Six other members have reported that they have been contacted by telephone and are awaiting summons.

1015 GMT: The Public Prosecutor's Office in Tehran is calling for public "consciousness" of the significance of 13 Aban --- read a warning to protestors not to show up and an admonition to others to be on guard against trouble-makers --- as a "national day against global arrogance".

0930 GMT: Reuters has picked up on the call of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, for the release of women detained during the post-election crisis.

0925 GMT: For the second time in less than 24 hours, I have written about an article in a US newspaper which, in my  opinion, undermines the Green movement in the service of misplaced priorities. This time my concern has been provoked by a piece by Borzou Daragahi in the Los Angeles Times.

0810 GMT: Noticing Politics, Noticing Tomorrow. The international media will be in Afghanistan overload today, but Michael Slackman of The New York Times puts out a useful analysis, "Iran’s Politics Stand in the Way of a Nuclear Deal". Slackman's takeaway, based on interview with his US-based pool of analysts, is, "[Iran's eqivocation] may be as much a product of the nation’s smoldering political crisis as it is a negotiating tactic."

0630 GMT: At this time tomorrow, people will be gathering at various points in Tehran and other Iranian cities for the ceremonies of 13 Aban and for demonstrations. A day which the regime has marked as the anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 by students is likely to take on a very different political symbolism.

Initial news today is of preparations for the gathering. Campaign 88, the youth supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, has invited the Green nation of Iran to participate in the rallies. The statement offers a nice transition from past struggles against foreign powers to current internal issues: 13 Azad has been the symbol of fighting against tyranny and oppression in the political history of our countrybut the campaign is now influenced by the movements against tyranny closer to home. The campaign declares that Mousavi will be participating and call on all members to make the tyrants and oppressors hear the cry for freedom of Iranians.

The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, declaring it will be participating in the rallies alongside other Green reformists, said the history of the past 200 years of Iran chows this fact that domestic tyrants who are hopeless and do not have the support of the people inevitably seek backing from foreigners. If the principle in foreign relations is the national interest, a government that has legitimacy and the support of the people will fulfill this responsibility. Reformists will seek “comprehensive execution of the constitution and the institutionalisation of the rights and freedoms mentioned" in that document.