The Latest from Iran (8 January): Karroubi Under Attack

2300 GMT: A slowish evening so we'll wish everyone good night and offer an early morning update on Saturday before I fly out of Beirut.

1725  GMT: Modifying Motahari. Amidst a rush of news, I was excessive in reporting that principlist Ali Motahari had declared in an interview (see 1140 GMT) that an Iranian can be against the concept of Supreme Leadership but remain within the framework of the Islamic Republic.

An EA reader offers this clarification, "Motahari, remarking that one of the roots of the post-election events is the lack of tolerance for opposition to the government and to fundamentalists, said, 'When the leaders of the protesters accept the system [of the Islamic Republic], we cannot call them the pawns of America and Israel. They also accept the Supreme Leadership. Now, while they may not accept a particular opinion of the Supreme Leader, that doesn\'t take them outside of the system.'"

1720 GMT: Apologies for the long break, which was due to conference duties here in Beirut.

1140 GMT: Another Principlist Move For Compromise? High-profile MP Ali Motahari has reportedly been speaking in the last 24 hours of the need for acceptance of criticism: "We have to accept that one can be against Supreme Leadership but within framework of regime."

Calling for honesty, justice, and integrity, Motahari asks why President Ahmadinejad cannot admit mistakes and ask for forgiveness. He blames post-election events on stubbornness of both sides, saying that all have their share of blame.

1130 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz claims that, in recent days, eye witnesses to the running-over of protestors by police cars during the Ashura demonstrations have been identified and arrested.

1045 GMT: The Karroubi Story. Saham News is updating....

As we reported last night, the reported group of 200 around the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying for a mourning ceremony, attacked the residence with stones and bricks. City officials and even the provincial governor tried to stop the assault but were unsuccessful. After four hours and the advice of "special forces" (possibly his State-appointed security detail) and anti-riot police, Karoubi decided to leave Qazvin for Tehran.

As the car was leaving the complex, shots were fired at it, breaking the supposedly bullet-proof windows. Karroubi said that there was not much his protection team could do; firing back in defence would have led to their prosecution. He added that only God knows why the guns that are supposed to be used only to defend the nation and the country are used against the people.

1035 GMT: Gunfire at Karroubi. Associated Press, France 24, and the leading activist site A Street Journalist, all apparently drawing information from the website connected to Mehdi Karroubi, report that the cleric's motorcade was fired upon as it left Qazvin, northwest of Tehran, today.

Yesterday the home where Karroubi was staying was attacked by a group, reportedly 200 people in plainclothes.

0855 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Still travelling --- after his visits to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, President Ahmadinejad was in Bahrain yesterday, declaring, "Vigilance, unity and cooperation of the Muslim nations will foil the enemies' conspiracies and those who sow the seeds of discord among Muslims and Islamic states are either ignorant or traitors."

NEW Iran: Four Responses to the “Wrong Questions” of the Leveretts (Lucas)
NEW Iran: “What is This Opposition?” Right Answers to Wrong Questions (Shahryar)
Iran: The “10 Demands” Manifesto – Soroush Speaks
Iran & Twitter 101: Getting The Facts Right — A Response to Will Heaven
Iran & Twitter 101: Rereading A Tale of Two Twitterers
Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

0840 GMT: Releases. The son of Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri and the brother and nephew of former minister Abdollah Nouri, both detained during the protests around the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and Ashura, have been released.

0830 GMT: Illegitimate Prayers. Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has declared that any religious services in the Qoba Mosque of Shiraz are invalid. Dastgheib was effectively silenced by the regime at the end of his December when pro-Government groups took over the mosque and closed the cleric's offices.

0825 GMT: We've posted a second analysis, complement that of Josh Shahryar, responding to the recent challenge to name the "leader" and declare the objectives of the Iranian opposition movements.

0620 GMT: Trashing Neda. Iranian state media is making another push to turn the killing of Neda Agha Soltan into an act in a foreign plot for regime change.

A new documentary for Iranian television, summarised in a Press TV video, made Neda both a participant and then the sacrifice of the evil scheme: she allegedly threw imitation blood onto her face as part of a faked shoot to discredit the security forces, but she was later slain by the two men who claim to have saved her live: her music teacher and Dr Arash Hejazi.

Hejazi has responded in an interview that this is a "shameless and worthless" attempt to shift blame from security forces by a regime which "has been doing everything it can to distance itself from Neda's death and throw responsibility on others".

0515 GMT: We begin this morning with a special analysis by Josh Shahryar, taking care of the wrong questions about "the opposition". As that opposition considers next moves, bits and pieces are now emerging from the relative political quiet.

The Government continues to link the political, legal, and military efforts to crush the Green movement. Days after the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, declared that all judges must be political, he reached out to the armed forces for his deputy, Brigadier General Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr.

An EA reader informs us that Dr. Yadollah Eslami, an ophtalmologist and editor-in-chief of the League of All-Term Majlis Deputies, was arrested last Monday by the Revolutionary Guard. His detention is a reminder of the answers that can be given to the "wrong questions" of those who desire to dismiss or distort the opposition; in October Eslami wrote:

The green movement is dynamic and growing. By not reacting immediately and prematurely to events and statements, the movement fosters deliberation and wisdom. Its decision-making on any given issue or occasion is an organized process, which seeks to share information and raise awareness. It has a specific goal in mind with every step it takes. It has spawned its own literature, poetry, and music. It has avoided blind violence and proved itself patient and deliberate. This movement’s dynamism and bold approach gave hope to all sectors of Iranian society. It has established a meaningful relationship with religious and ethnic minorities. It recognizes and respects all regional groups and their values. It creates and disseminates its slogans appropriately and in proportional response to prevalent needs.

The Latest from Iran (2 January): The Ripples of the Mousavi Statement

2240 GMT: Just Remember, It's the Zionists. And the Americans. At the end of a tiring, sometimes confusing day trying to interpret the political signals not only from Mir Hossein Mousavi but from others "within the Establishment", the simplicity of Kayhan offers a refuge from thought. Here is its front page:

Mousavi's latest statement was written by Mossad. And the CIA.

That's that, then. Thanks, guys, for saving me any further need for research. Or reflection. Or sense.

2155 GMT: Another Attack  on Mousavi's Organisation. Kalemeh reports that Mohammad Reza Tajik, a senior aide to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested.

2110 GMT: Larijani's Latest. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament, continues his tour of the country and his denunciation of the opposition, telling an audience in northeastern Iran: ""In the parliament we have considered such moves [of unrest] like walking on a minefield which would only cause deep rifts and damage the country's prestige."

Is Larijani playing bad cop to the conservative/principlist not-so-bad-cop (Rezaei, Motahari) in pressing for a resolution? Is he beyond compromise, setting out "they shall not pass" either as his personal position or as the (unacknowledged) representative of the Supreme Leader?

I leave it to others to work through the possibilities. Just wanted to ponder this: how many times have we mentioned Larijani in the updates in last few days? And how many times have we mentioned Ahmadinejad?

NEW Iran: The Non-Violent “Watershed” of the Mousavi Statement (Shahryar)
NEW Iran: A Gut Reaction to Mousavi’s “Martyrdom v. Compromise” Statement (Lucas)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi’s “5 Stages to Resolution” Statement (1 January)
NEW Iran: 2009’s Year of Living Dangerously (Part 1)
Latest Iran Video: Protests Against and for the Regime (31 December)

1750 GMT: What Say You, Rafsanjani? As both Mir Hossein Mousavi and conservative/principlist factions make their political moves for a resolution, attention has now turned to a statement by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's meeting of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.

Both Mousavi's Kalemeh and the state outlet Islamic Republic News Agency say Rafsanjani called for "unity" and "peace" by strengthening the bonds between Iranian people and the Government and that he praised the demonstrations of Iranians on the streets. IRNA then adds, however, that Rafsanjani said:

The Islamic establishment became victorious and continues its existence by relying on the people. I hope the desecrators will learn a lesson from the meaningful presence of the people on the street.

Press TV then adds the gloss, "Rafsanjani said the Wednesday rally also rendered ineffective the plots against the Islamic establishment."

1745 GMT: The Court of Appeals has upheld the six-year prison sentence of journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi.

1740 GMT: Karroubi and Mousavi Move? Saham News reports that Mehdi Karroubi has met Mir Hossein Mousavi for an hour in the home of Mousavi's nephew Seyed Ali, slain last Sunday by security forces. In addition to paying respects, Karroubi discussed "issues surrounding Mousavi's statement".

1715 GMT: The "Conservative/Principlist" Manoeuvre With Mousavi. OK, here's the political game: conservative and principlist activists within the establishment are going to play up the Mousavi statement as a route to compromise in the post-election conflict. This will fit both the Mohsen Rezaei letter to the Supreme Leader (1050 GMT) and the proposals of MP Ali Motahari (1400 GMT). This is being propelled by Tabnak, which is linked to Rezaei.

Here's the tip-off: the English-language Tehran Times, citing Tabnak, has declared:

Former presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement in which he condemned the disrespect of religious sanctities by some protesters on Ashura day (December 27) and made five proposals for resolving the current issues facing the country....Mousavi’s first and second proposals imply that he has accepted that the election is over, a Tabnak analyst said.

The article makes no reference to the first part of Mousavi's statement, with its denunciation of the Government and its declaration that he is prepared to die in the cause of protest against injustice and denial of the Iranian people's rights.

1710 GMT: The Sane'i Demotion (see 1535 GMT). Rah-e-Sabz has claimed that the Qom Seminary Teachers statement, denouncing Ayatollah Sane'i as failing to meet the standards of a marja, was signed by only one person: fervent Ahmadinejad supporter Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi.

Press TV, however, is playing up the "statement bearing the signature of Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the former head of Iran's judiciary" as "Ayatollah Sanei no longer qualified: Clerical body" and adds the jibe that Sane'i has "been criticized by millions of Iranians who took part in the demonstration on Wednesday".

1700 GMT: Nemat Ahmadi, whose arrest was reported yesterday, has issued a denial. Ahmadi was at the farm where another activist, Ali Hekmat, was taken by security forces and went to the police station with him.

1535 GMT: Attacking Sane'i. The move against Ayatolllah Yusuf Sane'i continues: the Qom Seminary Teachers Association has announced that he does not meet the conditions to be a marja (eminent cleric, worthy of emulation).

1400 GMT: More on the Move "Within" the Establishment. Earlier today (0740 GMT), Mr Azadi read the Mousavi statement in the context of "unity" calls from clerics, members of Parliament, and high-profile politicians such as Mohsen Rezaei (see 1050 GMT).

Here's more material for the thesis, with the proposals of influential legislator Ali Motahari. Among his seven points:

The leaders of the Green Movement should formally acknowledge the legitimacy of the President, and stop labeling the June election as fraudulent. Furthermore, they should, in the strongest possible terms, distance their positions, slogans, and agenda from anti-Islamic and westernized groups that have infiltrated the Green Movement and seek its leadership....

The President should acknowledge his mistake during the televised debates, and ask for forgiveness from the parties implicated....

Freedom of speech should be established by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and the press should adhere to these standards....

The military atmosphere should be brought to an end, and the national intelligence services must put an end to their unfounded claims against the leadership of the Green movement, accusing them of velvet revolution, soft regime change and months of preparation for regime change based on collaboration with foreigners. They should see the roots of post election developments not in foreign intervention but in our own ambitions, worldly goals, illusions, misjudgments and mismanagements. They should apologize to the nation for their excessive use of force against people....

All the detainees, who have often been arrested for unfounded reasons, should be released as soon as possible , except those who have damaged public properties and have resorted to destroying public buildings, particularly those took part in the riots during Ashura....

The full identify and photos of those guilty of initiating, aiding and carrying out the events that took place in Kahrizak, University of Tehran, and Sobhan Apartment Complex should be revealed to the public, and their sentences should be announced....

The judiciary should not remain indifferent in the face of extremist and sectarian supporters of the government who under the mask of Velayat-e Faghih (Guardian of the Jurisprudence) intend to eliminate all reformist and Principalist political figures and order the disruption of public gatherings.

1330 GMT: And If the Nuclear Distraction Doesn't Work (see 0925 GMT).... Press TV has some more on the interview of  Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki on state television. Having put up headlines on Mottaki's "ultimatum" for the West to accept Iran's offers on uranium enrichment within a month, the website now turns to a Mottaki speech on Friday to play the "foreign intervention" card:

Enemies are afraid of the anti-oppression movement Iran has started in the world. So, they are constantly scheming to stop it from spreading in the Muslim world and elsewhere. Vain enemy support for these scattered incidents that have recently occurred in the country on an insignificant scale, will lead to nothing.

Curiously, however, Mottaki located Iran's Number One Enemy not in the great Satanic expanse of the United States but in Britain.

1315 GMT: We've posted our second special analysis of the day on the Mousavi statement: Josh Shahryar assesses the declaration as a non-violent "watershed" for the challenge to the regime.

1105 GMT: Jailing the Activists. Two more members of Iran's Human Rights Reporters, Parisa Kakaei and Mehrdad Rahimi, members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, were arrested yesterday. All but two of the organisation's central committee are now detained.

1050 GMT: Connection? The Mousavi Statement and the Rezaei Intervention. There is an intriuing dimension --- possibly parallel, possibly intersecting --- to Mir Hossein Mousavi's declaration on martyrdom and compromise.

Before the Mousavi statement emerged, it was being reported that Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei had written to the Supreme Leader urging a political resolution as Mousavi had now allegedly accepted the post-election legitimacy of the Government.

This morning that line is still being pushed by Press TV's website, which quotes Rezaei:

Although he moved later than he should have, Mousavi has retreated from the position of denying the legitimacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad's government. That retreat as well as his constructive proposal about the role that the parliament and judiciary must play in holding the administration accountable can signal the beginning of a new unifying movement from opposing front.

Rezaei has vocally aligned himself with the regime after Ashura, in public statements and in the letter: "Wednesday demonstrations that brought out millions in a magnificent show of national unity will not only make up for the shame of the sacrilegious events of Ashura but will also play a unique role in foiling enemy plots. Once more, it was proven that Imam Hussein (PBUH) and his reviving path will be the savior of the Iranian nation." So it is clear that any accountability, in his eyes, will be limited to officials rather than reaching up to the offices of the Supreme Leader.

Two questions. First, on the nature of a compromise, at least as foretold by Rezaei: does it include an "accountability" that pushes aside President Ahmadinejad?

Second, has Rezaei's intervention been co-ordinated with Mousavi (see Mr Azadi's interpretation below on an interaction between Mousasvi and other "unity" initiatives such as that of Hashemi Rafsanjani)? Alternatively, is it meant to limit and even undermine Mousavi, especially with the Green movement, by emphasising "retreat"? Or is this a parallel initiative by conservatives/principlists which may or may not intersect with Mousavi in coming days?

0925 GMT: No, It's Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. I would not want to suggest in any way that Foreign Minister Manochehr Mottaki is trying to take everyone's eyes away from what is happening inside Iran, but the timing of this "ultimatum" (his word, not mine) on State TV this morning is interesting: the West must accept accept the Iranian counterproposal either to sell 20-percent uranium to Tehran or swap it for Iran's 3.5-percent stock.

Mottaki declared that the international community "has one month left" to accept, or Tehran will enrich uranium to the 20-percent level.

0840 GMT: We've now posted a special analysis, "A Gut Reaction To The Mousavi Statement".

0740 GMT: We awake this morning to continuing discussion of yesterday's post-Ashura statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi. We have posted the English translation, and we are working on an analysis of the political significance of Mousavi's combination of a passionate condemnation of violence and a readiness to accept martyrdom with his 5-point programme for reconciliation and resolution. In the meantime, EA's Mr Azadi offers this interpretation, which can set against my own thoughts in yesterday's updates:

What is clear is that this statement is to some extent different from Mousavi's previous statements.

Last week, we saw that not only a number of senior scholars in Iran such as Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, Makarem- Shirazi, and Mazaheri recommended all parties and groups to pursue dialogue and unity but also that Ayatollah Fadhlullah in Lebanon emphasised the importance of that dialogue and unity. The seven-point plan of [high-profile member of Parliament] Ali Motahari, the speech of Ali Larijani in Friday Prayers at Mashhad, and the request of [Presidential candidate] Mohsen Rezaei to the Supreme Leader to carefully considering Mousavi’s Statement: all show that Iranian intellectuals and scholars from all parities have come to the same conclusion that this crisis has to stop as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, there have been rumours in Iran that some private dialogue between the Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken place for resolving the current crisis. In this context, I think Mousavi's statement in a way is very similar to Rafsanjani’s plan for exiting from the current crisis.