The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.

Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: "It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments." it added in an address to the country's regime.

2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran's economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.

One news item catches the eye, however:

A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country's Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.

NEW Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
Iran Discussion: How Would Ahmadinejad Fall? (And What Would Come Next?)
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (23 January): Looking for Clues

"Deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries," Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].

The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.

1745 GMT: Your Economic Update. Reuters has a useful English-language summary of President Ahmadinejad's budget presentation to the Iranian Parliament today. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has extended the deadline on the validity of banknotes marked with Green slogans, effectively allowing their circulation for the indefinite future. And Persian2English carries claims of difficulties with banks in Isfahan.

1535 GMT: Ayande News keeps up its recent jabbing at the Government and regime, asking why the Supreme Leader has SL dedicated 21 speeches to post-election events if this is not a crisis.

1530 GMT: Rezaei's Latest Manoeuvre. A valued EA correspondent reports on the latest speech by Presidential candidate (and possible Ahmadinejad opponent) Mohsen Rezaei, given to students in Gilan.

Rezaei, as his recent Press TV interview, maintained his distance from the opposition by emphasising that he made his complaints about the Presidential election within the law. At the same time he complained, "We still don’t know how to face the opposition group," and noted, "In some other countries, police keeps the opposition safe rather than attacking them." Rezaei also repeated his criticism of the "very weak" Ahmadinejad Government.

And a curious post-script: news of Rezaei's speech was on Tabnak, the website linked to him, but was removed after a few minutes.

1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I'm going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

1510 GMT: Bank Issues. Peyke Iran supports Internet chatter with the story that shots have been fired at Bank Melli in the city of Ram Hormuz in southwestern Iran.

1340 GMT: The State of the Detainees. Fereshteh Ghazi has published a lengthy and wide-ranging article on those arrested after the election, including the detentions of family members of activists, the lack of information on Ashura and post-Ashura detainees for families and lawyers , and the health of prisoners such as former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi.

1210 GMT: Monica Luisa Macovei, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, has publicly declared in the Parliament, "I have decided to use most of my time for this intervention to highlight the names of people who, reportedly, are in detention in Iran, some convicted to death, for criticising the political regime or for defending civil rights."

Macovei mentioned the cases of five Ashura detainees charged with "mohareb" (war against God), the 33 Mothers of Mourning and supporters recently detained (almost all have been released), arrested members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, and other students who have been imprisoned. She asked, "What is the Commission or the Council going to do for the release of those imprisoned for political purposes? What funding does the Commission provide to human rights NGOs working on Iran?"

1150 GMT: The Standard Warning. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has again warned of those seeking to create divisions within Iranian society, announcing that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance will be more vigilant in monitoring and punishing publications over false information.

1140 GMT: Blowing Smoke. Unsurprising, given the political and economic contests around him, that President Ahmadinejad would put out this line today: he will have good news within days about Iran being able to produce enriched uranium of 20 percent (versus current levels of 3-4 percent), and this will make all in the Iranian nation very happy.

1025 GMT: For My Next Trick. It will be interesting to see if President Ahmadinejad can pull this off: amidst fears of inflation, he has proposed a rise of almost 25 percent in the Government budget, from $279 billion to $368 billion.

0910 GMT: We've posted a Sunday Special which we hope brings both news and a smile, "Iran and Israel: The Start of A Beautiful Friendship?".

0840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Budget. The President has presented his budget proposals to Iran's Parliament, the Majlis. He summarised, "Emphasizing a reduction of dependence on oil revenues and an increase of non-oil revenues, with a focus on industry, agriculture and housing —these are among the main attributes of the bill," before making his pitch, "I hope that the bill will be passed with the cooperation of all lawmakers who solve the problems of the country and pave the way for the development of Islamic Iran."

Now the fun and bargaining begin, as lawmakers have ten days to present comments about the bill to the technical commissions of the Majlis.

0820 GMT: Choose a Side, Rafsanjani? Hashemi Rafsanjani's general statement on Saturday, which we analysed in our updates, has not been enough to satisfy some who want him to "choose sides" in the conflict.

The bigger news, however, however, is that the battle may not be over whether Rafsanjani backs the Supreme Leader --- the former President offered allegiance yesterday, albeit with coded reservations --- but whether he is for or against President Ahmadinejad. And there it appears that Rafsanjani has some potential allies pushing him towards the latter position.

For example, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has renewed its attacks on Rafsanjani with a Sunday editorial. What is just as significant, however, is that the news of those attacks is published in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, possibly to blunt them.

Khabar, reporting from Mehr News, also features a speech by Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the Judiciary and the brother of Ali (Speaker of Parliament) and Sadegh (head of Judiciary), praising Rafsanjani as a "great personality" but noting his three mistakes: 1) founding the Kargozaran party in the mid-1990s; 2) running for elections in 2005; 3) making ambiguous statements about Ahmadinejad during those elections.

Analysis? Come off the fence, Hashemi, and do so in support of others, not at the head of the movement.

0815 GMT: Persian2English has published a set of pictures from the "birthday ceremony" at Neda Agha Soltan's grave yesterday.

0810 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran reports that Mehdi Jalil-Khani, a writer, literary critic, and journalist from Zanjan, was arrested last week after a Ministry of Intelligence raid.

0805 GMT: We're be looking for further development on both the political and economic fronts today, separating facts from rumours as the pressure seems to build on President Ahmadinejad.

We have a special analysis which offers some caution, as an EA correspondent asks, "Should The Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?"

UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad

URGENT UPDATE 1240 GMT: The Next Move in the Plot? Abdolhossein Ruholamini has given another interview about the crimes in Kahrizak Prison, including the abuse and death of his son Mohsen.

Ruholamini repeated the information, mentioned in our main article about his speech to a student organisation, that he has more than 3500 pages of evidence against the people in charge of Kahrizak. And he reiterated that there is independent evidence of the attempted murder of Kahrizak doctor Ramin Pourandarjan, who died last autumn. Ruholamini again singled out Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi as the main suspect, saying the former Tehran prosecutor should accept the charges and resign instead of issuing political statements.

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Iran: A Response to “The Plot Against Ahmadinejad”
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Ruholamini added the new claim that forces "behind the scenes" have been trying to get the families of victims to agree to silence, but he declared that he and some other families would "stand till the end".

These claims, however, are only the set-up for Ruholamini's political hammer blow: in a meeting with the Supreme Leader, "Ayatollah Khamenei supported my cause".

And guess where the interview has been reprinted? Well, it is in two publications linked to the central plotters against President Ahmadinejad: Tabnak, linked to Mohsen Rezaei, and in Farda, which supports Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf.

UPDATE 1000 GMT: There has been no high-profile media coverage, to our knowledge, of our news of the Larijani-Rezaei-Qalibaf meeting. The closest intersection has been a blog post by Babak Dad, who is now writing outside Iran, and his interview on Voice of America Persian yesterday. Dad's blog considered in detail the more general story of the manoevures by Ali Larijani, Mohsen Rezaei, and Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf against the Ahmadinejad Government, while his interview  but so far he has not connected this to the specific claim of a plot to curb or remove the President from power.

UPDATE 23 JANUARY, 0700 GMT: 24 hours later, how does the plot story hold up?

Well, there was no explicit confirmation --- given the sensitivity of any attempt to depose the President, that would be unlikely --- there were no development pointing away from the possibility. Indeed, the one piece of circumstantial evidence, Ali Larijani's statement before Friday Prayers in a city southwest of Tehran, gave implied support. The Speaker of Parliament made a veiled invitation to opposition leaders to join a move, and he continued the attack on the Government's management of the economy.

(Someone is also starting some pretty wicked rumours. Notable amongst these on Friday was the "Iran banks will fail on Wednesday" story.)

EA readers maintained a healthy scepticism about the day throughout the day. Some points can be answered quickly --- because of the way we received the information and checked it, I am certain it is not regime disinformation or a pretext to move against irritants like Larijani. Other questions are far trickier, such as the role of the Supreme Leader in these manoeuvres and the process by which the plotters could pull the trigger and oust Ahmadinejad.

An EA correspondent picked up on some of these issues in "A Response to the Plot Against Ahmadinejad", and this morning we have a sharp, valuable discussion between Chris Emery and another EA Iran specialist on not only the complications of deposing the President but the uncertainties of what would follow.

UPDATE 0810 GMT: In last night's debate on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, a member of Parliament and fervent Ahmadinejad supporter, alleged that "some people in charge want to overthrow" the Government with the help of the Parliament.

---

For months we have reported on the challenge to President Ahmadinejad, not just from the Green movement but from conservative and principlist members of the Iranian establishment. Since Ashura (27 December), we have noted a rising intensity in criticism, for example, from member of Parliament Ali Motahhari and his brother-in-law, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, as well as the Parliamentary report on detainee abuses charging Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi with responsibility.

The question still remained. Were these criticisms being made by high-profile individuals or were they part of an organised effort to limit Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly even remove him from office?

Here is what we can now report from reliable sources:

1. THE MEETING MAKES A PLAN

Sometime after the demonstrations of Ashura (27 December), three well-placed Iranian politicians met to discuss current events. The protests, with their scenes of violence and, in some cases, the retreat of Iranian security forces before the opposition, had been unsettling, raising fears not only that the challenge would persist but that the authority of the Government might collapse.

The three men were 1) Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament; 2) Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard, former Presidential candidate, and Secretary of the Expediency Council; and 3) Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Mayor of Tehran.

The meeting reached agreement on a general two-step strategy. First, the crisis with the opposition would be "solved", either through a resolution with its leaders or by finally suppressing it out of existence. Then, there would be a political campaign to get rid of the unsettling influence of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Each of the three men brought not ideas but key groups to the table. Larijani, of course, commanded a good deal of backing in Parliament and was close to the Supreme Leader. Rezaei not only had the background in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps but also, in the Expediency Council, worked with Hashemi Rafsanjani. Qalibaf, although mostly quiet during the post-election crisis, had the base of support from his solid reputation overseeing Tehran.

(It is likely, according to sources, that Rafsanjani knows of the plan, especially given the connection with Rezaei. It is unclear whether the Supreme Leader knows its details.)

The plan, however, soon ran into trouble with its first objective. The group was unable to get the support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Despite the sustained wave of post-Ashura arrests, striking at the top levels of the Green movement, the prospect of large demonstrations on 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, remains. And it is that prospect that was reportedly worrying the Supreme Leader when he spoke last week to ask the "elites" to choose sides and stop being "ambiguous".

So the possibility arose that the second step --- the removal of Ahmadinejad --- would take priority over the first. Newspapers connected to the three men stepped up their articles criticising the Government over the post-election crisis, over the Kahrizak Prison scandal, and over the economy. Larijani went public in statements alleging mismanagement by the Ahmadinejad administration and referring to the dangers of "extremism" within, as well as outside, the Government.

Meanwhile, a key distinction was being made at every opportunity. While the Government could and should be criticised, Ayatollah Khameini should not be challenged. Larijani in particular set out the line: velayat-e-faqih, the system of ultimate clerical authority, is beyond dispute.

The immediate goals are the downfall of two men in Ahmadinejad's camp: former Tehran Prosecutor General Mortazavi, who is vulnerable because of the detainee scandal, and former First Vice-President and current Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, whose management skills as well as his character are being attacked across a range of issues.

It may be possible for Mortazavi to be removed and for Ahmadinejad to survive, assuming that none of the Kahrizak scandal sticks to him. Victory over Rahim-Mashai, however, would be a major blow to the President. After all, this was the fight of the summer, where Ahmadinejad had to give way over his relative and friend as First Vice-President --- notably because of pressure from the Supreme Leader --- but then brought him back as his closest aide.

To lose Esfandiar once is misfortune; to lose him twice political calamity. Ahmadinejad's authority would be open to further attack, and the post-election crisis could be brought upon him personally. Which brings us to....

2. THE FATHER EXPRESSES HIS ANGER.

"It may be possible for Mortazavi to be removed and for Ahmadinejad to survive, assuming that none of the Kahrizak scandal sticks to him."

Abdolhossein Ruholamini is a prominent Tehran University professor who was the chief advisor to Mohsen Rezaei. He is also the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died from abuse this summer in Kahrizak Prison. That death was instrumental in prompting both the closure of Kahrizak, by personal order of the Supreme Leader, and the Parliamentary enquiry into events there.

Abdolhossein Ruholamini, however, is still campaigning. Last week he met with the student movement, Islamic Community from European Countries to Iran. In a forceful speech, he declared his anger with Ahmadinejad and the Government. He made clear that he and others had decided to "claim and appeal" over the authorities at Kahrizak, Saeed Mortazavi, the police, and the judiciary: (I paraphrase) "We have much evidence against Mortazavi, against police, against some judges. (Ruholamini said that, in one case, a single judge had condemned 700 people to jail in one day.) We even have phone conversations over the killing of the doctor [Ramin Pourandarjan] in Kahrizak.”

Ruholamini made clear that his claim and appeal is also against President Ahmadinejad. And he has also said that he met the Supreme Leader over the matter and Khamenei said (paraphrasing), "Go ahead. The way is clear for you."

3. THE OUTCOME?

EA sources report the sentiment of those in and around the Larijani-Rezaei-Qalibaf meeting and the statements of Ruholamini: “We have decided to replace Ahmadinejad”. At the same time, the group is insisting that the removal has to done within the framework of law. It is notable, for example, how Mohsen Rezaei --- in an extended interview with Press TV last week --- insisted repeatedly that the difference between him and other Presidential candidates (Mousavi and Karroubi) in the post-election conflict was that Rezaei had always made his complaints within Iran's system, rather than on the streets.

The most likely path for that campaign is Parliamentary removal of Ahmadinejad --- similar to the US process of impeachment and conviction of a President --- for negligence in carrying out his duties and leading the country in a good direction. This was the process used to oust the first President of the Islamic Republic, Abdolhassan Bani-Sadr, in 1981.

That case, however, raises a question and possible complication. In 1981 Ayatollah Khomeini was behind the removal of Bani-Sadr. In this case, it is still not clear if the current Supreme Leader, and those close to him such as his son Mojtaba, are fully aware of or in line with the campaign against Ahmadinejad.

Which in turn brings us back to the earlier disputes of summer 2009, when the Supreme Leader --- after protracted battles with Ahmadinejad including not only Rahim-Mashai but also control of key ministries --- proceeded with the President's inauguration. This time, given the mounting fears over 22 Bahman, which way does he turn? Does he intervene or stand aside, letting others play out this political showdown?

The Latest from Iran (22 January): Breaking News

0030 GMT: Just a quick note to say that we've extended our break. We'll be back first thing Saturday morning with full updates, including the latest on "the plot against Ahmadinejad".

1845 GMT: We're going to catch our breath tonight after the excitement of today. We'll be back later for a wrap-up; in the meantime, keep sending in information and your analyses.

1820 GMT: Larijani's Opening? We'll need to get more on this statement by Ali Larijani, during Friday Prayers in Saveh, southwest of Tehran, but there is a hint in Mehr News that the Speaker of Parliament has extended a hand to different factions when it paraphrases, "Every effort should be made to foster unity in society, and everyone should refrain from divisive actions meant to drive individuals off the political stage."

The Persian-language report, significantly, devotes most of its attention not to the "unity" statement but to Larijani's critique of the Government's economic proposals.

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1735 GMT: Press TV Censors Ahmad Khatami? Surely not, but the website curiously omits any mention of Khatami's warning to Iranian protesters and the call for all to choose the side of the Supreme Leader (see 1250 and 1645 GMT). Instead, the entire report is "Cleric Says Iran Nuclear Case Important 'Test'".

1730 GMT: Journalist Leili Farhadpour has been arrested.

1645 GMT: More on That Friday Prayer (see 1250 GMT). Persian2English translates passages of Ahmad Khatami's statement, which is his usual warning to deviant demonstrators:

To our brothers who call themselves protesters, we ask, how much longer are you going to continue with your protests? Are you still going to use your destructive statements which neglect the law? Are you going to water the roots of those who try to turn any cooperative situation into a conflict? They say it was not them who created the chaos; the question is who initiated this atmosphere? How long are you going to continue your protests and annoy the people?

This passage, however, does give pause for consideration: "The group who considers themselves critics should announce where they stand. Either they are on this side [with the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih] or they are on the other side. There is no third way."

That seems to echo Ayatollah Khamenei's statement earlier this week on "make your decision", but to whom was Khatami pointing the statement? Those deviant demonstrators, or the "critics within" the establishment?

1530 GMT: The German magazine Der Spiegel reports that Abed Tavancheh has been sentenced to one year in an Iranian prison for giving an interview about student protests.

1525 GMT: Hassan Rohani, an ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has continued to clash with President Ahmadinejad over the "failed" 4th Development Plan. After the Government ridiculed his data, Rohani has responded in detail in Peyke Iran.

1515 GMT: Earlier today (0845 GMT), we noted the manifesto of 31 Iranian expatriate intellectuals and artists: "The way out of this darkness, and of poverty and oppression caused by it, is that people make clear their relationship with tyranny through free elections, monitored by competent international institutions." This will bring "a system separating government from religion institutions, on behalf of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, separating legislative and executive powers, and [ensuring] judicial independence".

The statement has now been picked up by BBC Persian and by Radio Farda.

1309 GMT: The Purge at Allameh Tabatabei University. We've had reports this week of academic staff being terminated or relieved of duties. Putting them together:

Political philosopher Seyed Morteza Mardiha and women’s rights activist Saba Vasefi have been banned from teaching. According to Tabnak, eight faculty in the Economics Department have been expelled, and all but one stripped of the right to teach. The salaries of two faculty members of the Department of Agriculture have been cut.

The Development Program at Allameh Tabatabei has been completely terminated.

1250 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. It's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami setting out all that's significant in religion and politics today. Behold:

When you hold an election, that's the people's opportunity to put forth their views. Then someone wins and you stop for four years. Ahmadinejad won. So, protesters, be quiet.

And the US military is occupying Haiti, which proves they are very bad.

1240 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has opened a factory at Khorasan Steel and dealt with the current political crisis by calling on all Iranians to have a spiritual focus and obey Allah.

1235 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the files of 18 more Ashura protesters have been sent to the Revolutionary Court.

1015 GMT: We have posted comments from an EA correspondent on our featured analysis, "The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad".

0845 GMT: The Opposition Manifesto. More than 30 expatriate Iranian intellectuals and artists have issued a statement in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0835 GMT: Slamming the  Opposition. Last night's debate on Iranian state media was a non-debate, as MPs Ruhollah Hosseinian and Alaeddin Boroujerdi were generally in agreement. An EA correspondent describes it as a “Love-Making discussion in which both side were praising and appreciating each other".

There was some drama, however. In addition to his claim of "a plot within" to topple the Government, Hosseinian talked of the "Axis of Revolt" of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. He offered this advice: the Supreme Leader was too patient with the opposition --- "if we had the authority; we would have sorted it out straightaway".

0820 GMT: An Iranian activist has posted a list, with English translation, of the arrest and current state (if known) of 229 people arrested on 16 Azar (7 December) or in the Tasua-Ashura demonstrations (26-27 December).

0655 GMT: We are putting the last touches to what we believe is a significant story: a high-level plan to move against President Ahmadinejad and possibly remove him from office. As soon as that is completed, we will update on latest news. (We have now posted the story.)

The Latest from Iran (2 January): The Ripples of the Mousavi Statement

2240 GMT: Just Remember, It's the Zionists. And the Americans. At the end of a tiring, sometimes confusing day trying to interpret the political signals not only from Mir Hossein Mousavi but from others "within the Establishment", the simplicity of Kayhan offers a refuge from thought. Here is its front page:

Mousavi's latest statement was written by Mossad. And the CIA.

That's that, then. Thanks, guys, for saving me any further need for research. Or reflection. Or sense.

2155 GMT: Another Attack  on Mousavi's Organisation. Kalemeh reports that Mohammad Reza Tajik, a senior aide to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been arrested.

2110 GMT: Larijani's Latest. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament, continues his tour of the country and his denunciation of the opposition, telling an audience in northeastern Iran: ""In the parliament we have considered such moves [of unrest] like walking on a minefield which would only cause deep rifts and damage the country's prestige."

Is Larijani playing bad cop to the conservative/principlist not-so-bad-cop (Rezaei, Motahari) in pressing for a resolution? Is he beyond compromise, setting out "they shall not pass" either as his personal position or as the (unacknowledged) representative of the Supreme Leader?

I leave it to others to work through the possibilities. Just wanted to ponder this: how many times have we mentioned Larijani in the updates in last few days? And how many times have we mentioned Ahmadinejad?

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NEW Iran Document: Mousavi’s “5 Stages to Resolution” Statement (1 January)
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1750 GMT: What Say You, Rafsanjani? As both Mir Hossein Mousavi and conservative/principlist factions make their political moves for a resolution, attention has now turned to a statement by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's meeting of the Expediency Council, which he chairs.

Both Mousavi's Kalemeh and the state outlet Islamic Republic News Agency say Rafsanjani called for "unity" and "peace" by strengthening the bonds between Iranian people and the Government and that he praised the demonstrations of Iranians on the streets. IRNA then adds, however, that Rafsanjani said:

The Islamic establishment became victorious and continues its existence by relying on the people. I hope the desecrators will learn a lesson from the meaningful presence of the people on the street.

Press TV then adds the gloss, "Rafsanjani said the Wednesday rally also rendered ineffective the plots against the Islamic establishment."

1745 GMT: The Court of Appeals has upheld the six-year prison sentence of journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi.

1740 GMT: Karroubi and Mousavi Move? Saham News reports that Mehdi Karroubi has met Mir Hossein Mousavi for an hour in the home of Mousavi's nephew Seyed Ali, slain last Sunday by security forces. In addition to paying respects, Karroubi discussed "issues surrounding Mousavi's statement".

1715 GMT: The "Conservative/Principlist" Manoeuvre With Mousavi. OK, here's the political game: conservative and principlist activists within the establishment are going to play up the Mousavi statement as a route to compromise in the post-election conflict. This will fit both the Mohsen Rezaei letter to the Supreme Leader (1050 GMT) and the proposals of MP Ali Motahari (1400 GMT). This is being propelled by Tabnak, which is linked to Rezaei.

Here's the tip-off: the English-language Tehran Times, citing Tabnak, has declared:

Former presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement in which he condemned the disrespect of religious sanctities by some protesters on Ashura day (December 27) and made five proposals for resolving the current issues facing the country....Mousavi’s first and second proposals imply that he has accepted that the election is over, a Tabnak analyst said.

The article makes no reference to the first part of Mousavi's statement, with its denunciation of the Government and its declaration that he is prepared to die in the cause of protest against injustice and denial of the Iranian people's rights.

1710 GMT: The Sane'i Demotion (see 1535 GMT). Rah-e-Sabz has claimed that the Qom Seminary Teachers statement, denouncing Ayatollah Sane'i as failing to meet the standards of a marja, was signed by only one person: fervent Ahmadinejad supporter Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi.

Press TV, however, is playing up the "statement bearing the signature of Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the former head of Iran's judiciary" as "Ayatollah Sanei no longer qualified: Clerical body" and adds the jibe that Sane'i has "been criticized by millions of Iranians who took part in the demonstration on Wednesday".

1700 GMT: Nemat Ahmadi, whose arrest was reported yesterday, has issued a denial. Ahmadi was at the farm where another activist, Ali Hekmat, was taken by security forces and went to the police station with him.

1535 GMT: Attacking Sane'i. The move against Ayatolllah Yusuf Sane'i continues: the Qom Seminary Teachers Association has announced that he does not meet the conditions to be a marja (eminent cleric, worthy of emulation).

1400 GMT: More on the Move "Within" the Establishment. Earlier today (0740 GMT), Mr Azadi read the Mousavi statement in the context of "unity" calls from clerics, members of Parliament, and high-profile politicians such as Mohsen Rezaei (see 1050 GMT).

Here's more material for the thesis, with the proposals of influential legislator Ali Motahari. Among his seven points:

The leaders of the Green Movement should formally acknowledge the legitimacy of the President, and stop labeling the June election as fraudulent. Furthermore, they should, in the strongest possible terms, distance their positions, slogans, and agenda from anti-Islamic and westernized groups that have infiltrated the Green Movement and seek its leadership....

The President should acknowledge his mistake during the televised debates, and ask for forgiveness from the parties implicated....

Freedom of speech should be established by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and the press should adhere to these standards....

The military atmosphere should be brought to an end, and the national intelligence services must put an end to their unfounded claims against the leadership of the Green movement, accusing them of velvet revolution, soft regime change and months of preparation for regime change based on collaboration with foreigners. They should see the roots of post election developments not in foreign intervention but in our own ambitions, worldly goals, illusions, misjudgments and mismanagements. They should apologize to the nation for their excessive use of force against people....

All the detainees, who have often been arrested for unfounded reasons, should be released as soon as possible , except those who have damaged public properties and have resorted to destroying public buildings, particularly those took part in the riots during Ashura....

The full identify and photos of those guilty of initiating, aiding and carrying out the events that took place in Kahrizak, University of Tehran, and Sobhan Apartment Complex should be revealed to the public, and their sentences should be announced....

The judiciary should not remain indifferent in the face of extremist and sectarian supporters of the government who under the mask of Velayat-e Faghih (Guardian of the Jurisprudence) intend to eliminate all reformist and Principalist political figures and order the disruption of public gatherings.

1330 GMT: And If the Nuclear Distraction Doesn't Work (see 0925 GMT).... Press TV has some more on the interview of  Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki on state television. Having put up headlines on Mottaki's "ultimatum" for the West to accept Iran's offers on uranium enrichment within a month, the website now turns to a Mottaki speech on Friday to play the "foreign intervention" card:

Enemies are afraid of the anti-oppression movement Iran has started in the world. So, they are constantly scheming to stop it from spreading in the Muslim world and elsewhere. Vain enemy support for these scattered incidents that have recently occurred in the country on an insignificant scale, will lead to nothing.

Curiously, however, Mottaki located Iran's Number One Enemy not in the great Satanic expanse of the United States but in Britain.

1315 GMT: We've posted our second special analysis of the day on the Mousavi statement: Josh Shahryar assesses the declaration as a non-violent "watershed" for the challenge to the regime.

1105 GMT: Jailing the Activists. Two more members of Iran's Human Rights Reporters, Parisa Kakaei and Mehrdad Rahimi, members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, were arrested yesterday. All but two of the organisation's central committee are now detained.

1050 GMT: Connection? The Mousavi Statement and the Rezaei Intervention. There is an intriuing dimension --- possibly parallel, possibly intersecting --- to Mir Hossein Mousavi's declaration on martyrdom and compromise.

Before the Mousavi statement emerged, it was being reported that Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei had written to the Supreme Leader urging a political resolution as Mousavi had now allegedly accepted the post-election legitimacy of the Government.

This morning that line is still being pushed by Press TV's website, which quotes Rezaei:

Although he moved later than he should have, Mousavi has retreated from the position of denying the legitimacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad's government. That retreat as well as his constructive proposal about the role that the parliament and judiciary must play in holding the administration accountable can signal the beginning of a new unifying movement from opposing front.

Rezaei has vocally aligned himself with the regime after Ashura, in public statements and in the letter: "Wednesday demonstrations that brought out millions in a magnificent show of national unity will not only make up for the shame of the sacrilegious events of Ashura but will also play a unique role in foiling enemy plots. Once more, it was proven that Imam Hussein (PBUH) and his reviving path will be the savior of the Iranian nation." So it is clear that any accountability, in his eyes, will be limited to officials rather than reaching up to the offices of the Supreme Leader.

Two questions. First, on the nature of a compromise, at least as foretold by Rezaei: does it include an "accountability" that pushes aside President Ahmadinejad?

Second, has Rezaei's intervention been co-ordinated with Mousavi (see Mr Azadi's interpretation below on an interaction between Mousasvi and other "unity" initiatives such as that of Hashemi Rafsanjani)? Alternatively, is it meant to limit and even undermine Mousavi, especially with the Green movement, by emphasising "retreat"? Or is this a parallel initiative by conservatives/principlists which may or may not intersect with Mousavi in coming days?

0925 GMT: No, It's Nukes, Nukes, Nukes. I would not want to suggest in any way that Foreign Minister Manochehr Mottaki is trying to take everyone's eyes away from what is happening inside Iran, but the timing of this "ultimatum" (his word, not mine) on State TV this morning is interesting: the West must accept accept the Iranian counterproposal either to sell 20-percent uranium to Tehran or swap it for Iran's 3.5-percent stock.

Mottaki declared that the international community "has one month left" to accept, or Tehran will enrich uranium to the 20-percent level.

0840 GMT: We've now posted a special analysis, "A Gut Reaction To The Mousavi Statement".

0740 GMT: We awake this morning to continuing discussion of yesterday's post-Ashura statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi. We have posted the English translation, and we are working on an analysis of the political significance of Mousavi's combination of a passionate condemnation of violence and a readiness to accept martyrdom with his 5-point programme for reconciliation and resolution. In the meantime, EA's Mr Azadi offers this interpretation, which can set against my own thoughts in yesterday's updates:

What is clear is that this statement is to some extent different from Mousavi's previous statements.

Last week, we saw that not only a number of senior scholars in Iran such as Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, Makarem- Shirazi, and Mazaheri recommended all parties and groups to pursue dialogue and unity but also that Ayatollah Fadhlullah in Lebanon emphasised the importance of that dialogue and unity. The seven-point plan of [high-profile member of Parliament] Ali Motahari, the speech of Ali Larijani in Friday Prayers at Mashhad, and the request of [Presidential candidate] Mohsen Rezaei to the Supreme Leader to carefully considering Mousavi’s Statement: all show that Iranian intellectuals and scholars from all parities have come to the same conclusion that this crisis has to stop as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, there have been rumours in Iran that some private dialogue between the Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken place for resolving the current crisis. In this context, I think Mousavi's statement in a way is very similar to Rafsanjani’s plan for exiting from the current crisis.