Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

2155 GMT: Hmm.... Looks like the homepage of Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has been visited by a hacker.

2150 GMT: Are You Listening in Tel Aviv? The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has pretty much slapped a public restraining order on an Israeli attack on Iran. He told the Washington Institute of Near East Policy that Iran was "on a path that has strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons and have been for some time" and "that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome"; however, he continued:

On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome....That part of the world could become much more unstable, which is a dangerous global outcome.

(Here's a surprise: Iran's Press TV is already featuring Mullen's words.)

Iran: The “10 Demands” Manifesto – Soroush Speaks
Iran & Twitter 101: Getting The Facts Right — A Response to Will Heaven
Iran & Twitter 101: Rereading A Tale of Two Twitterers
Latest Iran Video: Football’s Back…And It’s Still Green (6 January)
Iran: Hillary Clinton on Engagement & Pressure with Regime of “Ruthless Repression”
UPDATED Iran: The 60 Forbidden Foreign Organisations
The Latest from Iran (6 January): Distractions

2125 GMT: An Iranian blog has published pictures of those trying to attack Mehdi Karroubi in Qazvin tonight (see 2025 GMT).

An Iranian activist has posted a summary on Facebook, claiming about 200 plainclothes "thugs" gathered outside the house where Karroubi was staying. The police tried to prevent a confrontation as about 500 people looked on; however, according to the activist, there were Revolutionary Guard commanders amongst the would-be attackers. When Karroubi was leaving, his car was pelted with eggs and broken bricks.

2120 GMT: Deutsche Welle publishes a story mentioned by one of our readers earlier today. The Iranian Government has declared that "defaced" banknotes will not be considered as legal currency as of 16 January. The announcement is clearly aimed at the widespread movement of protest by putting Green slogans on the currency.

In response, the opposition has declared that 17 January will be a day of protest with massive circulation of the "Green" banknotes.

2039 GMT: 99% Support is Not Enough. Peyke Iran reports that Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian has resigned as a member of Parliament because there has not been "100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei". Hosseinian is considered a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, whom he has served as security advisor. He is also a former Deputy Minister of Intelligence.

2025 GMT: Karroubi Visit and Qazvin Clashes. A lot of chatter about Mehdi Karroubi's trip to Qazvin, 165 miles northwest of Tehran. Saham News reports that there were clashes when  the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying, was attacked.

2000 GMT: Iranian human rights groups report that student leader Majid Tavakoli, detained after his speech at the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, has been tried and sentenced in Revolutionary Court.

Tavakoli, given permission to contact his family for the first time since his arrest, said he was charged with insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and gathering and spreading propaganda against the regime. The trial was held behind closed doors, and Tavakoli remains in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities attempted to humiliate Tavakoli by distributing his photograph in woman's hejab, prompting the protest "We Are All Majid".

1950 GMT: Fasih Yasamani was hanged on Wednesday.

Yasamani, in prison since 2007, was accused of belonging to the opposition party Pajvak,
an armed Kurdish group. The evidence against Yasamani were his confessions, which he claimed were obtained by torture.

The 28-year-old Yasamani is the second Kurdish citizen executed since the June election. Ehsan Fattahian was killed on 11 November.

Iranian human rights groups claim that there are 17 other political prisoners on death row in Kurdistan.

1945 GMT:Ashura "Mohareb" Trials? Islamic Republic News Agency reports that five of the protesters on Ashura (27 December) will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

There has already reportedly been a trial of demonstrators. The distinction in this report is these five will be charged with "mohareb" (a war against God), a crime which can be punished by death.

1730 GMT: Radio Silence Indeed. Because of complications of site outage and my commitments in Beirut, we've been limited in updates today. I'll be here about 1930 GMT to go through the day's events.

1005 GMT: Missing. The husband of student activist Bahareh Hedayat, has told Rooz Online, "We have no information about her." Hedayat was detained at the end of December.

1000 GMT: A Petition with Caution.
An interesting story out of Australia....

After the resignation of an Iranian diplomat in Norway in protest over the Government's handling of the post-election conflict, Iran Solidarity in Melbourne has posted a petition asking Iran's Ambassador to Australia to give up his post.

There's a note on the petition, however, which points to fear as well as activism: "***READ BEFORE SIGNING*** UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD ANYBODY USE THEIR REAL NAME WHEN SIGNING THIS PETITION."

0625 GMT: Tantalising --- but True? One claim, and it is only a claim at this point, to note: Maziar Bahari writes in Newsweek: "Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position."

0620 GMT: Possibly the quietest period in Iranian politics since June, even in chatter amongst our Internet sources.

Speaking of those sources, we have two special analyses this morning. Josh Shahryar offers a detailed response to a recent article ridiculing the role of social media in the post-election events in Iran. And I flash back to late June with "A Tale of Two Twitterers".

We'll be on limited service today because of conference duties. Please keep sending in news and comment, especially if situation picks up later today.

Comments

[Nemo]

“Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position.”

May well be true. I recently came across an "interesting" IRNA article in this context. It is titled: "The Best Demonstration Of Democracy - The 'pro-government demonstration' that didn’t carry the picture of the President".

The author goes on: "...many of those who demonstrated where not necessarily supporters of President Ahmadinejad." [...] "I participated in the demonstration and never saw a single portrait of the President being carried by the people instead everyone was carrying a picture of Imam Khomeini, Ayatollah Khamenei and Seyed Hassan Nastrallah."

And: "It’s definitely a sad day for Michael Ledeen and Daniel Pipes."

http://www.irna.ir/En/View/FullStory/?NewsId=878805&IdLanguage=3

Hope you enjoy reading it ;)

[whereismyvote]

One important mover by the greens has been the mass writing of slogans on the national currency. Currently the central bank had made multiple announcements that on Jan 16 it will stop taking all the currency with slogans and that they will become void. However the greens have made the Jan 17 the day of work with the slogan currency and are preparing for mass slogan writing on the currency on that day, as well as on walls, buses and other places, all over all cities. This campaign is getting much support and expect to see this as the next flash point.

[Arshama]

Today's best news is certainly the withdrawal of principlist Ruhollah Hosseinian, who proposed summary judgements to the parliament recently: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11851

Reuter's news:
Iraq, Iran start talks on disputed border area: http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/CWOR/nworldNews_uUSTRE6062IM20100107?p=1

Iran unlikely to risk blocking Strait of Hormuz: http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/CWOR/nworldNews_uUSTRE6061W620100107

[Green]

Nemo:

Let me add in another piece of the puzzle: Marandi in his recent CNN interview with Amanpour, in response to a question, specifically went out of his way to state the protests were not in support of Ahmadinejad but the Leader and the system. And I consider Marandi to be Khamenei's spokesman to foreign media. (Marandi's father, former health minister Dr. Alireza Marandi, reportedly personally coordinates Khamenei's medical care.)

[Samuel]

Marandi has said several times that he did not vote for AN.

[florence achard]

Samuel,

you seem to be distancing yourself from AN; it was not so a few months ago...

[Arshama]

Deputy of cultural affairs Mohammad Ali Ramin labels imprisoned journalists as "thieves and thugs", controlled by the West: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/7352/
With 42 detainees the IRI has regained the championship of being "the world's biggest prison for journalists" http://www.rsf.org/spip.php?page=article&id_article=35838

[whereismyvote]

Samuel
What difference does it make who Marandi voted for? He is the stooge of the SL and the Pasdaran. His family went from being a simple doctors family to being a multi billionaire family under the aba of Zalil Khamanei. Are we to care for his vote or opinion are you saying?

The fact remains that after last Ashura, the close ring of people surrounding Zalil Khamanei have started to carefully craft an escape route. They equate Iranian green wave supporters as violent traitors. They equate Iranians who want democracy and change, as the same as MKO and in parallel they started to separate Khamanei from AN government.

However all this fine spin works if these Khamanei clan possessed some imagination, dynamism and connection to reality. They have been unable to either tame the Pasdaran, the people or the forces of change. They have stuck to the same script since day one, and only tactically changed their story when forced to. Strategy of seeing compromise as equated to weakness has left Khamanei weak and isolated. Strategy of saying no to every foreseeable solution and not offering and solutions of his own, has left Khamanei out of the loop with those who are discussing the impasse. Although he holds every organ of power, he has been unable to use anything but force. The state propaganda machine (IRIB) is now a 24 hour comedy channel with specialization in sarcasm. The Majlis is now ineffective and considered irrelevant, and the judicary has publicly announced that it is a politically influenced organ under the control of Khamanei. The Marjah and religious organizations have also lost their Hamparchegi and have come out repeadly speaking against the Zalil Khamanei and the AN government. In all of this, the spin is that protesters should not have defended themselves against the thugs and louts that tried to beat and kill people with chains, knives, guns and batons, and that the green movement has broken its promise of peaceful resistance. I think that spin may get you a little in traction in the west, but when it comes to many many Iranians, today I fear they are more emboldened than before.
When we look at the so called spin strategy of separating AN from Khamnaie it is 6 months too late and far too little. When Iranians are calling for the death of Khamanei they mean it. Do you think parading a bunch of clowns to create a spin line is going to change that? Khamanei's lack of imagination, leadership capability and charisma has left him both isolated and weak. A once idol supreme leader who was considered by his clan as revealed by god to the Assembly of Experts to become the next leader and not chosen, is now considered a tyrant dictator at best.

We shall come out again on the 22 of Bahman to show the world our numbers and our strength. Till then it is the supporters of the SL that are festering and not the greens

[Samuel]

florence,

"you seem to be distancing yourself from AN; it was not so a few months ago…"

That is not correct. I have never been a fan of AN and have said so repeatedly. He is pious and not at all corrupt (he still lives pretty much the same way he did before anyone knew of him) but he is also a demagogue who engages in silly little, unproductive feuds.

[Barry]

Samuel

I will assume that, as you are not a supporter of AN, you would not have voted for him??

If so - are you not angry that your beloved SL placed him is such a position of authority?

Or perhaps, you did not even bother to vote in the past election? - as you fully understand that, in Iran, people's votes do not matter at all and it would have been just a waste of time and effort to do so. Yazdi has clearly stated that this is the way it is.

Barry

[whereismyvote]

If AN has flaws, such as he is demagogue who engages in silly little, unproductive feuds, has openly lied and is not very eloquent in speaking, then how come the SL personally stated that he is the best leader for Iran as a president? What does that say for a regime, that its best person is a demagoue who is engaged in unproductive and silly little feuds? Surely in an open and democratic system a better leader would have emerged. The problem is that having built and brought AN up and forward, there is no way of dumping him without some of the stink sticking to the Aba of Mr. Khamanei.

Pious he may be in his beleives of Mahdi, but the Iranians want a leader Pious to democracy and freedom and not to a 13 year old child who has been living in a well for the past 900 plus years (according to superstitious beelives of AN).
Mr. AN's corruption was not that he stole to richen his own pockets, but that he stole and richened the pockets of all those cronies and Pasdars that have surrounded him. His living in that two bedroom Narmak house is a scripted show for the stupid and ignorant to swallow. His corruption has been to place his nepasit and cronizm above all else. He appoints leaders and ministers based on loyalty to his personal beleives and not based on skill or capability or experience. Is that not the very definition of corruption?

[Ali]

Samuel's definition of pious is someone who does all the dirty works of the SL without regard to human rights, right or wrong.
Remember, according to Samuel's cronies it is perfectly acceptable to rape and murder innocent people - as far as it is acceptable by SL and Mesbah Yazdi.

Guys, please stop wasting your time debating with Samuel since I don't believe he has a conscience.

[Barry]

Ali

It is never too late for people to realize the error of their ways and thinking - it has always been thus. This is no different for Samuel or for anyone else. Have we not all at some time in our life realized that we were wrong about some matter - and accepted that we were wrong.

I have seen people, responsible for atrocities, weep sincerely while admitting their crimes.

As is said - confession is good for the soul. :)

Barry

[Peace Maker]

Barry,

Well said .

[Bomerang]

Samuel cant be given benefit of doubt also. Things have been let to escalate by assuming that either the RULERS slept at the wheel or The Iranian people.

By sheer numbers and sizes and brains of the Iranians, they knew all along what was happening, but could not speak. Not their FAULT !!!

But, the RULERS kept driving to nowhere. Wonder why no one or Any folks ask whys...!!! to so many steps in 30 years..... Imagine the opportunity COSTS to do any changes after the thugs are kicked out of power. !!! But that wil pale in comparison to the fact of "NOT GETING FREEDOM".

So hope and pray Iranian People get the most (or all and more) of what they missed al these years.

[Barry]

Boomerang

After WW2, people wondered how did Germany become what it did - the German people were/are an intelligent sophisticated race.

Responsibility could not be merely sheeted home to the Nazis - it was clear to all that the German people themselves did rally to the Nazis - they loved it at first when the Nazis were triumphant. You can see their joyful faces when Hitler drove past.

Similarly, the situation today in Iran is not solely the responsibility of the current Regime or the Mullahs. For the past 30 years, I have seen the joy in the faces of Iranian people at the Rallies - screaming "marg bar this and marg bar that".

Barry

[Samuel]

wimv,

"Pious he may be in his beleives of Mahdi, but the Iranians want a leader Pious to democracy and freedom and not to a 13 year old child who has been living in a well for the past 900 plus years (according to superstitious beelives of AN)."

Interesting now you are not just mocking AN but Shiite Islam in general. The belief in the Mahdi and the period of greater occultation is mainstream religious doctrine among all twelver Shiites and you are trying to portray it as AN's particular superstition. I guess for your next point you'll be mocking the Prophet and his daughter. Yes this is the kind of talk that will endear the greens to the religious masses.

[Samuel]

To repeat what I have always said and believed about AN: He is a demagogue, his rantings about the Holocaust are wrong and untrue and he lets personal feuds get in the way of good govt. such as when he fired General Naghdi a few years ago (long before he was the head of the Basij). However AN was and remains far, far preferable to Mousavi and Khatami and their plans to undermine the Islamic Revolution from within.

I cannot speak for Marandi obviously but I believe my thoughts on AN closely mirror his own.

[Bozorg]

Ah, the dishonest disputant quacks again. Misrepresentation, caricature, evasion - the holy triumvirate of the intellectually bankrupt.

WIMV, thank you for your consistently insightful comments.

[Arshama]

MOHAREB is spelled: "ma hamiye Irani raha bemanim"
(let us remain supporters of a free Iran)

[Megan]

Arshama,

The good news would be the news of the remaining 289 deadbeats and bottom-feeders leaving people’s house, Majlis (parliament).

[Megan]

I am a MOHAREB and I am mighty proud of it.

The above line would be the first line of my posts from this day forward. I hope other readers follow.

Many who were arrested on Ashura may be executed because Islamic Republic of Shame may charge them as Mohareb and the penalty for Mohareb is death.

I am a Mohareb because I do not want to be under the same GOD to whom Mullah Ali, the Supreme Loony, prays. I am a Mohareb because I want no part of the God whose name is put on the execution order of innocent men and women in Iran, the GOD whose name is called when they murder and torture people in prisons and in the streets. I am a Mohareb because I spit on Islamic Repulsive Republic and everything it stands for.

[Barry]

Samuel

"However AN was and remains far, far preferable to Mousavi and Khatami and their plans to undermine the Islamic Revolution from within."

You do not usually explain your thoughts very well - but I would be very interested in what you mean by this. I cannot see at all where these 2 individuals want anything of that sort at all. Quite contrary - they seem to me to be quite clear that they wish to maintain the Islamic Republic exactly as according to the Constitution.

What part of the Islamic Republic according to the Constitution do they wish to undermine?? Or is your concern that they wish to undermine the benefits and moneys that some individuals and groups have accumulated.

Hoping that you explain further.

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

khatami was quoted before the election saying that if the greens win the SL would be sidelined and essentially powerless. In effect they wanted to undermine the Revolution and its intitutions from within. I have no doubt that the Basij and the IRGC would have been severely weakened if not eliminated by a green adm. It is clear that most of their comments about the Ayatollah Khomeini are simple lies. The Khomeni they portray never walked the streets of Tehran, France, Qom, Najaf or indeed any othe part of planet earth.

"they wish to maintain the Islamic Republic exactly as according to the Constitution." If you really believe that let me introduce you to a friend who will sell you the Tower of London, all cash, no questions asked.

[Samuel]

For a bit of balance with all the anti-religious comments: The Supreme Leader at the Imam Reza Shrine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_YW1u32GKA&feature=related