Israel Video & Transcript: Barak in Washington --- Speeches and Meetings

On Friday, Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak met with his US counterpart, Robert Gates, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As Barak reiterated the need for "imminent harsh sanctions" against Iran, Clinton urged her guest to ease sanctions against Gazans. However, the two saw eye-to-eye on "security".

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzW6o-CxZk[/youtube]

Middle East Inside Line: Hamas Division, Ahmadinejad with Syria & Hezbollah, Mitchell to Resign?

Speaking to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, Barak said:

They [Hamas] are well-deterred. But still they are accumulating more, longer-range rockets through the smuggling system that goes all the way from Iran through Africa to the Gaza Strip.

And the situation is not fully stable. We still have the abducted soldier (Shalit) and that complicates some aspects of the normalization of the situation.

Then, Barak met with Clinton. The transcript of the meeting:

SECRETARY CLINTON: It’s a great personal pleasure for me to welcome back my friend and the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The defense minister and I will be discussing a number of issues. Certainly, as he knows and as we have made clear many times, the President and I are deeply committed to a comprehensive peace beginning with a re-launch of meaningful negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians as soon as possible. We believe a two-state solution is the best way to end the conflict and guarantee peace, security, and prosperity for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

We will also be discussing the situation in Gaza. The people of Gaza deserve hope for a better future, and making sure that they have that hope is in both the interests of the Israelis and the Palestinians. Minister Barak and I will discuss the need to do more in this regard while keeping in mind very real Israeli security concerns: the stranglehold that Hamas is attempting to place on life in Gaza and Gilad Shalit’s captivity by Hamas.

And we will also, I am sure, Minister, discuss Iran. We have pursued a dual-track approach to Iran. We remain committed to a diplomatic, peaceful resolution. But as the recent IAEA report makes clear, Iran is not living up to its responsibilities, and we are working with our partners in the international community to increase pressure on Iran to change course.

So, Minister Barak, it is indeed a pleasure. And we have so many serious matters to discuss together, but there is one matter that I have to raise that I was asked about in a congressional hearing yesterday, and that is trying to get nine containers of gefilte fish from the processing plant in Illinois to Israel in time for Passover. (Laughter.) So these are intractable problems; this one we might be able to solve. (Laughter.)

DEFENSE MINISTER BARAK: Thank you, Secretary Clinton. I am glad to be here. I can just tell you how much we appreciate the effort made by the Administration under the leadership of the Secretary and with Senator Mitchell at the front line to bring us and the Palestinians into substantial negotiations. We all want to see peace in our region. We understand that we’ll have to take tough decisions while not losing eye contact with our security needs and making sure that both sides will be able to live in security and peace.

We also highly appreciate the effort made by President Obama and the Secretary to make sure that sanctions against Iran will become effective and that whatever title it get, get effective, limited in time, consequential, and without losing eye contact with the possibility that in spite of all effort, it will not lead to Iran accepting the international norms. I’m looking forward for fruitful discussion of all issues, including the gefilte fish.

SECRETARY CLINTON: (Laughter.) Thank you.

Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.

Middle East Inside Line: US, Russia, & Israel on Iran; Lieberman v. Palestinian Authority; US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"

US-Israel Defense Meeting on Iran: The US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, said in Israel on Sunday, "Iran must not acquire nuclear capability". He added: "It [a regional confrontation following a strike on Iran] will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike... We haven't taken off any option from the table."

Meanwhile, Haaretz says that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will be arriving in Israel within weeks on an official visit.

Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle

Moscow's Snub to Israel on Iran Missiles: An hour before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plane took off on Sunday, Russian officials said that Moscow sees no reason to delay the sale of the S-300, a powerful air-defense system, to Iran. Vladimir Nazarov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council secretary, told Interfax news agency in an interview:

There is a signed contract [for the S-300 missiles] which we must follow through on, but deliveries have not started yet. This deal is not restricted by any international sanctions, because we are talking about deliveries of an exclusively defensive weapon.

On the other hand, according to Haaretz, Russian intelligence officials leaked comments expressing their displeasure with plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia.

Lieberman Accuses Palestinian Authority: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday that "much of the global effort to de-legitimize Israel is supported and sponsored by the Palestinian Authority". He added that the bid to smear Israel in the international community was "partially sponsored by funds Israel is transferring to the Palestinians".

US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"US: On Sunday, Rep. Brian Baird, a Democrat from Washington state, spoke to a group of Gaza students regarding the situation in Gaza and said that the United States should break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver badly needed supplies by sea. He resembled such an operation to the situation in the post-Second World War and said: "We ought to bring roll-on, roll-off ships and roll them right to the beach and bring the relief supplies in, in our version of the Berlin airlift."

UPDATED Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon Warning, Obama on Iran Sanctions, Clash within Palestinian Authority

Lebanon's Warning: On Wednesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri warned Israel, "If there is a war against us, there won't be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people." He added: "We see what's happening on the ground and in our airspace and what's happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli planes entering Lebanese airspace. This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous."

Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded sharply, "Hezbollah murdered his father (former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, assassinated in 2005 by unknown assailants) and he is in the position of being a hostage."

Israel: A Loose Cannon for a Middle East Conflict?

Clash in Gaza: Responding to two Gaza-made rockets fired into southern Israel on Sunday and Monday, the Israeli Air Force launched missiles into the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. A military spokesman said, "The Israel Defense Forces will continue to act firmly against anyone who uses terror against Israel, and we see Hamas as solely responsible for maintaining peace and quiet in the Gaza Strip."


Split in Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced Monday that they intend to promote a bill that would let Israeli citizens vote from abroad in Knesset elections. However, Minister of Defence Ehud Barak was quick to criticize his the measure:

I strongly object to granting the right to vote to Israelis living permanently abroad. Only those people who are here with us and who bear the risks and burden of being here should be allowed to vote in Israel.

Obama Proclaims More Sanctions on Iran: President Barack Obama declared last night that a series of sanctions on Iran are to be developed in the coming several weeks, though he could not assure China's support in the UN Security Council.

Palestinian Authority Out in West Bank?: In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Fahmi Shabaneh, who until recently was in charge of the Anti-Corruption Department in the Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service (GIS), warned that Hamas' victory the Fatah-controlled regime in Gaza in 2006-7 is likely to recur in the West Bank. He said that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had surrounded himself with many of the corrupt officials who used to work for his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, and added: “It’s hard to find people in the West Bank who support the Palestinian Authority. People are fed up with the financial corruption and mismanagement of the Palestinian Authority.”

The PA said on Wednesday morning that Shabaneh's allegations were part of an Israeli conspiracy aimed at undermining Abbas because of his refusal to return to the negotiation table unconditionally.

Iran Advice Video: Palin to Obama "Bomb and You Get Re-Elected"

Not sure if this qualifies for Sunday Funnies/Sunday Horror Show:

Clear your head of all pre-conceptions about Ms Sarah Palin, former Vice Presidential candidate for the Republicans, to get your head about this: she is so keen on war against Iran that she is handing out this advice to ensure the re-election of the man who defeated her in the 2008 campaign and who still, as far as I know, is the leader of the opposing party.

And before you single out Ms Palin for your reaction, remember that she is only parroting advice handed out by self-styled "experts" like Daniel Pipes and Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal last week:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G8RrZlwEQE[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors