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Entries in Mohammad Reza Bahonar (4)

Sunday
Aug302009

The Latest from Iran (30 August): Parliament Discusses the Cabinet

NEW Video: The Iftar Protests (30 August)
Iran Debate: How Weak (or Strong) is Ahmadinejad?
Today’s Gold Medal Iran “Expert”: Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post
The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

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AHMADINEJAD52100 GMT: The Mowj-e-Sabz website, which has been a vital source of information (if one reporting for the cause of the Green movement) during this conflict, is down. We're watching to see if it has been hacked out of existence.

1955 GMT: That #CNNFail Thing (see 1445 GMT). CNN staffer Samira Simone tweets from Atlanta, "More trouble for Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks", linking to a Saturday story in the Los Angeles Times on the disputed Ph.D. of the President's proposed Minister of Higher Education.

Meanwhile, no one on CNN's website seems to have noticed that a debate over "Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks" took place in the Iranian Parliament today. There is still no advance on their story about the President's speech at Friday prayers.

1915 GMT: Agence France Presse draws on the opinions of two high-profile "conservative" MPs to draw out the challenge to President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet nominees:
"Sixteen nominees have no experience required for the ministries they have been nominated for," said powerful MP Ahmad Tavakoli. "The cabinet lacks harmony in its view when it comes to handling crucial issues such as economic development. The views of candidates nominated to head the economy, oil and commerce ministries contradict that of the agriculture ministry nominee."

Another top conservative, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, said he will "definitely not vote for a few nominees: "Some nominees of four or five ministries have an educational background which is contradictory to their portfolios."

1830 GMT: The news that Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Chief Prosecutor, has been named as Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General, serving under the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has caused consternation. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau assesses:

The move also provides some clues into [head of Iran judiciary Sadegh] Larijani’s thinking and his views about his tenure at the judiciary. Larijani does not appear to be interested in reforming the system or leaving a positive legacy. Ejeie himself is a hardliner, and both he and Mortazavi are strongly supported by Ayatollah Khamenei. Their appointments signal that the harsh tactics in dealing with the reformist leaders and the people supporting them will continue.

I'm still in "wait and see" mode while an EA correspondent writes, "I think [this] really highlights how things are not quite as they appear in Iran. We were all thinking that Sadegh Larijani is weeding the hard core Ahmadinejad henchment away from top posts, when suddently Mortazavi gets actually promoted. I am not an expert of the Iranian judiciary system, but would venture to say that it is effectively a promotion, although it needs to be seen how he will cope with his boss, Mohseni Ejeie."

1735 GMT: Protestors have gathered in front of the Amir Almomenin Mosque in Tehran. Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami had planned to join families of detainees for an Iftar (breaking of the Ramadan fast) meal, but the gathering was prohibited by authorities. We've posted video in a separate entry.

1640 GMT: Radio Farda has published a transcript (in Farsi) of President Ahmadinejad's speech in Parliament today.

1635 GMT: The Kargozaran Party, which associated with Hashemi Rafsanjani, has issued a statement of support for Mehdi Karroubi.

1520 GMT: Some urgent re-interpretation might be in order. According to BBC Persian, Saeed Mortazavi was not "fired" as Tehran's chief prosecutor. Instead, he's been moved at the judiciary to Deputy Prosecutor General.

1445 GMT: Credit to Associated Press, who have written a summary of the debate in Parliament, highlighting criticism of Ahmadinejad over the Iranian economy and noting specific hostility to his nominee as Minister of Energy, Massed Mirkazemi. (Unfortunately, they missed the humour of the "Peach" episode --- see 1230 GMT.) Credit also to MSNBC for picking up the story.

CNN continues its recent record of hopelessness: its last Iran story is from Friday, "Ahmadinejad urges stiff punishment for election dissenters".

1230 GMT: The Parliamentary debate has ended for the day. Parleman News has posted a running summary.

The overall headline appears to be that criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government, with principlists MPs pointing to a weak administration and reformists objecting to the lack of a substantial Government programme, will not stop general Parliamentary affirmation. Votes on individual ministers, which start on Monday, will be much trickier for the President.

So Ahmadinejad has avoided an immediate setback, but this does not mean he escaped ridicule. The moment that may capture the political imagination came when some Parliamentarians started shouting, "Peach! Peach!" That is an allusion to Ahmadinejad's television appearance last week, when he compared his former Minister of Health to "a peach I would like to eat".

1145 GMT: Parallel to our live blog coverage of the Parliamentary discussion, we've posted a lively debate --- drawing on the expertise of our Mr  Smith and Mr Johnson as well as blogs from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau and Fintan Dunne --- on the political position of President Ahmadinejad.

1135 GMT: Parleman News have now posted a summary, via Mehr News, of the first session of Parliament on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. MPs of the majority principlist bloc have been fierce in their criticism of the President. I still expect Parliamentary approval of the Government, but the estimate of up to 7 ministers being rejected is still prominent.

1125 GMT: Meanwhile Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with members of the Etemade Melli party, emphasised that suspending their newspaper or filtering their website will not make them give up and that they will continue their efforts with strong determination. He added that on Quds Day (the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September) the authorities will witness people’s power once again and will know which side people are supporting.

1100 GMT: There is a Twitter report that tonight's Iftar (breaking of Ramadan fast), in which with Karroubi, Mousavi, Khatami, and families of detainees dined with the Reform Front Coordination Council, has been cancelled by authorities from the Ministry of Intelligence.

(We have now confirmed this via Saham News and the website of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party.)

1000 GMT: Parleman News is updating on the Parlimentary speeches, which initially will be over the acceptance of the Cabinet as a whole rather on individual Ministers. Our reading is that while some high-profile critics of President Ahmadinejad, such as Vice Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, are maintaining their denunciation of a "weak" Administration, they will encourage the Majlis to offer its support by voting for the Government.

0835 GMT: An Inauspicious Start? While Press TV summarises Ahmadinejad's speech this morning to Parliament, Parleman News thinks the President may have mis-stepped even before he took the podium. Ahmadinejad showed up with bodyguards, an unprecedented measure that brought protests from reformist MPs.

0830 GMT: We've just read an opinion piece on Iran that was so jaw-droppingly, well, bad that we had to give the author, Jim Hoagland of The Washington Post, his own special space.

0710 GMT: The Secret Burials in Behesht-e-Zahra Cemetery. Hamid-Reza Katouzian, a member of the special Parliamentary committee investigating claims of post-election misconduct, has said that there are unidentified people buried in the cemetery but it is unclear whether there are the 40 protestors whom the opposition claim were interred on orders from security forces.

0700 GMT: Fintan Dunne has joined our debate from yesterday over the claim, launched in the Tehran Bureau, that President Ahmadinejad is "isolated, weak, and delusional".
Muhammad Sahimi was too dismissive in describing of Ahmadinejad...as "isolated and delusional", and erred in reducing the regime to the person of the President. But he was correct to describe Ahmadinejad as "weak"....

The regime is now tellingly reliant on a narrow base of IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] appointees to fill government posts. Ahmadinejad/IRGC's core 'hard' support is as low as 10% with a 'softer' support extending to up to 18% of the population. The disputed president's public pronouncements are reductionist and defensive --aimed at his own supporters and the ill-informed. By contrast, most other voices in Iranian politics are addressing the remaining 80%+ of the population.

Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Ahmadinejad/IRGC are unable to crush the reformers. It is going to be far harder to violently suppress any mass public protests in the weeks ahead. And there is a dire political problem looming for this one-legged regime: it's the economy, stupid!...As the weeks pass, the economy will join the stolen election as the twin key political issues for the populace.

0650 GMT: On the opposition side, there has been a lot of chatter about a report that Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karroubi, joining families of political detainees, will attend this evening's Iftar ceremony, when the daily Ramadan fast is broken, with the Reform Front Coordination Council.

0635 GMT: Attention this morning turns to the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament, where President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominations come up for votes of confidence. The debates and votes are more than referenda on individual Ministers; they are also a key sign of how much support the President retains, especially amongst the majority principlist bloc.

While there have been reports this week that up to 7 of the nominations are in trouble, these are based more on the comments of a couple of highly-placed MPs rather than a survey of Parliamentary opinion. The safest assessment that can be made is that Ahmadinejad's 3 women nominees are unlikely to be approved; beyond that, several other Ministers will rise or fall depending on behind-the-scene manoeuvres and their own presentations to the Parliament.
Monday
Aug242009

The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

NEW Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear…All Tehran’s Fault
NEW Welcome to the Irony: Iran's Parliament Passes Bill to Defend Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?


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IRAN GREEN

2110 GMT: In addition to providing the first set of his evidence of detainee abuse to Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has responded to criticism from a conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakoli, that the revelations were against Karroubi's revolutionary background and would have bad consequences. Karroubi said that it was not right to sacrifice "our religion, dignity and bravery for the benefit of ourselves" and that the regime's is to no one's benefits.

2100 GMT: Returning to the comments of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1315 GMT), more to raise a smile than to offer any analysis. Rahim-Mashai said that the election had demonstrated President Ahmadinejad's historic and extraordinary popularity in the world, a popularity unique before and after the Islamic Revolution. He added that, had it not been for the “challenges” that the Ahmadinejad Administration created in the world, Iran would not be as successful as it is today. (Press TV has a summary in English.)

1945 GMT: The Los Angeles Times blog "Babylon & Beyond" has summarised the first testimony of detainee abuse produced by Mehdi Karroui (see 1535 and 1930 GMT):
Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence.

They said it was the young man's own fault for protesting the results of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, according to a fresh account of the alleged rape published on the website of a prominent reformist politician.

"I asked them why I and others were raped in prison," the young man says he asked two interrogators and a judge who had agreed to hear his story....

One of the three replied, "'When the supreme leader confirmed the election result, everyone should have recognized it."

1940 GMT: For What It's Worth. Press TV, citing Ayandeh newspaper, reports that the managing director of the Behehst-e-Zahra cemetery has denied the secret burial of post-election casualties. Norooz claimed earlier this week, from information provided by a cemetery employee, that security forces had forced staff to inter 40 bodies.

1930 GMT: Tabnak reports that Kazam Jalali of the Parliament National Security Committee has met with Mehdi Karroubi to discuss Karroubi's initial presentation of evidence on the sexual abuse of detainees (see 1535 GMT). The Los Angeles Times offers an English summary quoting Jalali, “Karoubi agreed to introduce four persons, who have met him personally and claimed that they were tortured and raped in prison, to Parliament. Karoubi told us these four persons are ready to provide their testimonies that they were sexually abused, but they do not feel secure.”

1600 GMT: Cyber-Wars. We will probably run a feature tomorrow, but it appears that the Iranian authorities are doing serious damage to the communications and presence of the Green opposition and reformists.

One key site of Mir Housein Mousavi's campaign, Ghalam News, was hacked out of existence last month ("Service Unavailable"). It is reported that another, Kalameh Sabz, has been down for more than 10 days. The closure of Etemade Melli newspaper has been followed by the disappearance of its website ("Under Construction"); Seda-ye Edalat fell at the end of July. (The website of the Etemade Melli political party is still up and a key source for information.)

1535 GMT: The Evidence Emerges. Mehdi Karroubi has released the first testimony from an abused detainee from Saham News via his party's website, Etemade Melli, and promised that this is only "a corner of the documentation".

1525 GMT: Press TV features the story that head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has appointed the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, as Iran's Prosecutor General, as well as naming Ayatollah Ahmad Mohseni-Gorgani as the head of the Supreme Court.

Nothing surprising there --- we reported Mohseni-Ejeie's appointment many days ago. What is significant is that Press TV is obviously repeating the news to give the President a poke in the eye. On no less than four occasions in a short article (three times in the text; once in the caption), the website stresses, "The appointment comes as earlier last month President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked his intelligence minister Mohseni-Ejei after he objected to the president's first deputy pick."

1450 GMT: Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow's fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian. That has now expanded to the claim that Hajarian and reformist political heavyweights , Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi will be making "confessions" on television on Tuesday night.

1400 GMT: Journalist Mahsa Amirabadi has been released after more than two months in detention. Her husband Masoud Bastani is still in Evin Prison.

1315 GMT: Slow politics day so far, but one story has been developing. The former First Vice President and current (but suspended for legal reasons) Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has given an extended interview to Islamic Republic News Agency, declaring that the Presidential election was a "referendum" on the Government.

Rahim-Mashai's lengthy version of how the election developed, however, is important for another reason. He asserts that Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to use events to curb the authority of the Supreme Leader. In the context of current events, this may be seen as a clear signal that the Ahmadinejad camp is trying to prevent any rapprochement between Ayatollah Khamenei and the former President, or as we frame it, an anti-Ahmadinejad compromise.

0915 GMT: A Green Media and Organisation. Seyed Mohammad Maraashi, writing on the website of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, declares:
The continuation of this movement is tied to the creation of a cohesive organization with its own definite means of communication. The establishment of a closely knit organization depends primarily on setting up a newspaper or a television and radio network. That will allow the movement’s supporters to receive the news from trustworthy sources. This initiative will also prevent the irresponsible distribution of rumors....

But the creation of an official newspaper, radio or television network is only one of the considerable tasks of the movement. Another momentous task is the establishment of an organization. Every organization must focus on a particular objective, and this objective can be realized if we devise and preserve this organization’s structure through constant education and activity....

We should not forget that the current condition is the condition of a coup d’état, and we should be prepared to go to jail, or even to die, for our political activities.

0700 GMT: Watching Hashemi. Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a challenging evaluation of Rafsanjani's role and strategy, set in the context of his 30 years at the forefront of Iranian politics and his 17 July address at Friday prayers in Tehran:
In the first half of his speech, Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of unity to resolving the post-election crisis, a theme he discussed primarily through citations to the Quran....Rafsanjani's [Saturday] comments to the Expediency Council reinforce this view.... [It was] another...example of Rafsanjani's desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term.

It's a persuasive argument as far as it goes, but it leaves an important question. Is it possible to find unity in the current crisis?

0545 GMT: Late last night, after a day trying to interpret where exactly Hashemi Rafsanjani stood in the post-election conflict between and amidst the President, the Supreme Leader, conservative and principlist groups, and the Green opposition, one reader wrote, "This really is the most incredible four-dimensional chess game."

In a new day in that game, the players are on a break. However, there is one move, from a high-ranking reformist member of Parliament: "The First Vice-Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told reporters on Sunday that it was 'likely' that the Parliament (Majlis) would reject about five of the introduced nominees."

Aboutourabi-Fard made the same statement last week, as did Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the second Vice-Speaker. The question, of course, is whether other MPs share their scepticism.
Thursday
Aug202009

The Latest from Iran (20 August): Grinding to a Halt

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

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AHMADINEJAD41810 GMT: Recognise Us Because We're Really Nice. There have been signs this week that the Ahmadinejad Government would be more flexible in its position on the nuclear programme, and today this came from the Associated Press, via unnamed diplomats:
Iran has lifted a ban and allowed UN inspectors to visit a nearly-completed nuclear reactor. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited the reactor in Arak after a year-long ban...Iran agreed last week to expand uranium enrichment monitoring of the site.

1735 GMT: Ahmadinejad and the IRGC Factor. As we wait for the fallout from the President's televised speech on his Cabinet selections, here's how American anlaysts get it right. And wrong.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense has been noticed because he was commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps in the late 1980s/early 1990s. So, it is said, Vahidi's appointment indicates a consolidation of the relationship between the President and the IRGC in the face of opposition not only from "reformists" but from "conservative" and "principlist" elements.

Right.

And, the analysts continue, this indicates that Ahmadinejad plans to continue and maybe accelerate Iran's material support for pro-Iranian parties and militias in the Middle East.

Wrong.

This, of course, may be a consequence over time of Vahidi's appointment but to assert --- without any evidence --- that the external dimension is more important than the President's manoeuvres in an internal crisis smacks of a view that revolves around Washington, rather than Tehran.

1725 GMT: Worst. Claim. Ever: It's All Hillary's Fault. Iran's police chief of police Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam has said that the "confessions" of political detainees must be authentic because their mastermind, Hillary Clinton, has openly revealed their plans: "Some say that the police has extracted confessions by force, but I tell them: No-one has extracted confession out of Mrs. Clinton, yet she reveals all issues freely."

While Ahmadi-Moqaddam's statement should be called out as a crass cover-up of the state's treatment of prisoners, it does point to the lack of wisdom in Clinton's posturing --- motivated primarily to counter domestic charges that the Administration had stood back from post-election events --- when she told CNN earlier this month that the US Government did much "behind the scenes" for Iranian protesters.

1450 GMT: Reuters has now picked up on the problems for Ahmadinejad's Ministerial appointments in Parliament, adding this quote from Speaker Ali Larijani on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Those nominated by the president for government posts must have sufficient expertise and experience, otherwise a great deal of the country's energy would be wasted."

1410 GMT: Creating Some Political Space? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking to the Islamic Society of Engineers, has declared that the primary duty of Government is "justice so human beings may perfect themselves" and that it was essential for people to have "economic, cultural, and political mobility".

1340 GMT: Tonight's the Night. After the stop-start process of naming his Cabinet, President Ahmadinejad takes to the national airwaves in a broadcast just after the 9 p.m. news. He may do so with a bit of nervousness: protestors are planning to drown out the President with "Allahu Akhbars", and Ahmadinejad's previous broadcast didn't go so well. Remember his defeat at the hands of the Giant Moth? (If you missed it, here's the video.)

1150 GMT: Another Shot at Ahmadinejad. Jomhoori Eslami reports that an Iranian court has temporarily suspended former First Vice President and current Presdential Chief of Staff Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai for two months because of charges of financial misconduct.

1140 GMT: The Fight Begins? The Deputy Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has warned that at leave five of President Ahmadinejad's choices for Ministers may not receive votes of confidence. Reuters has English-language summary of report.

1100 GMT: No Newspaper is Safe. Even the hard-line "conservative" Kayhan could be banned from newsstands. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, the same court that banned Etemade Melli has ordered Saeed Mortazavi, the Tehran Prosecutor General, to halt the publication of Kayhan, because of the failure of its editor, Hossein Shariatmadari, to answer two court summons. Shariatmadari was taken to court by Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti and others over the "publication of repeated lies" against the candidate.

0720 GMT: The English-language version of the Iran Parliament website has just released the names of the 18 ministers whom it says were submitted by President Ahmadinejad to the Parliament "on Wednesday". There are no surprises amongst the names, which we revealed in yesterday's updates.

0620 GMT: Reading Another Change. We reported yesterday that the new head of Iran's judiciary, Saeed Larijani, had given a clear thumb-in-the-eye to the President with the appointment of Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, the Minister of Intelligence fired by Ahmadinejad, as Iran's Prosecutor General.

Larijani is also replacing Tehran's chief prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, with Morteza Bakhtiari, the former head of Iran's prison service and former Governor of Isfahan. The timing is a bit curious, since Mortazavi was seen as the legal force behind the prosecution of post-election political detainees, and we are in the middle of the Tehran trials.

So is Larijani asserting his authority against the President? Or is the simple explanatio n that Mortazavi is moving to a post in Ahmadinejad's executive? And will there be an impact, short-term or long-term, on detentions and prosecutions?

0540 GMT: Meanwhile, a foreign-policy breakthrough for the President and his Government received surprisingly little attention. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was in Tehran for a chat.

The cover story was that Assad came to Iran to broker the release of French national Clotilde Reiss, arrested and still awaiting trial on bail. Iranian state media preferred the image of election legitimacy, quoting Assad's greeting to Ahmadinejad, “I’ve come here today to personally convey my warm congratulations to you and the Iranian nation. I believe what happened in Iran was an important development and a great lesson to foreigners."

The overriding significance, however, is in the Associated Press headline, "Iran’s supreme leader reinforces Syria alliance." Ahmadinejad, who has been ostracised internationally since his trip to Moscow just after the election, will get a symbolic boost; however, it is unclear whether Assad was reinforcing the alliance or holding it in suspension. Before 12 June, it appeared that the Tehran-Damascus relationship was an important influence on questions from the Israel-Palestine dynamic (and the in-fighting within the Palestinian leadership), the situation in Lebanon, and the wider state of play (political and economic) between Iran and Arab States. How much of it that continues while Ahmadinejad's real rather than symbolic legitimacy is still doubted?

0500 GMT: We took a break last night to recharge our batteries and return this morning not to news but to two non-events.

The first non-event was President Ahmadinejad's to formally submit his Ministerial nominations to Parliament by yesterday's deadline. In the morning, all appeared to be almost complete: Mehr News was reporting three names remained to be confirmed, and then Tabnak said only one, the Minister of Justice. At 1:22 p.m. local time, a few hours before the deadline, the English-language site of the Parliament recapped the news.

And then nothing. There was a clue that all was not well when the President's Wednesday night national broadcast was postponed for 24 hours but, otherwise, updates stopped as the deadline came and went. (Press TV's website is still stuck on its Wednesday morning headline, "More Ahmadinejad cabinet nominees revealed".) Then, just after 10 p.m., the Farsi-language version of the Parliament website reported simply, "The letter of the President still has not come."

No one is offering the reason for the delay, but the obvious speculation is that some of the names in the list leaked by the media were unacceptable to members of Parliament. And so we enter today, ready to analyse but with no way forward yet on the questions: will Ahmadinejad make concessions and change some of his selections? Will there be any punishment for his failure to meet the deadline? Will any high-ranking "conservative" or "principlist" MPs come out publicly against the President?

However, it is the other non-event, largely missed by media, which is occupying us this morning. Yesterday the Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts postponed the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due in about 10-12 days. Our question from yesterday's update, "Who pushed for the delay?", is still unanswered. To get an idea of the stakes involved in this answer, consider the make-up of the Executive Committee: Hashemi Rafsanjani aligned against Ahmadinejead supporters Hashemi Shahroudi (former Head of Judiciary), Mohammad Yazdi (Rafsanjani's foe within the Assembly), Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi (Prosecutor General), and Ahmad Khatami (the hard-line temporary leader of Friday prayers in Tehran).

An EA correspondent offers this assessment, leading to an important but so far overlooked point:

The excuse that the Assembly meeting was delayed because of Ramadan [which starts on Saturday] appears as exactly that, an excuse and nothing more. Parliament will debate and possibly block Ahmadinejad's ministerial nominees well into Ramadan, Government will carry on business, and I am sure the trials will not go into recess for a month.
So what seems to be the case here is someone simply unwilling to have the session happen so soon. The latest letters sent by the former MPs and the Qom ulama [clerics] might have precipitated the case. They either blew the lid off Rafsanjani's machinations or persuaded the Supreme Leader to force a postponement in order to work on the Assembly members and make sure they don't spell trouble for him. At any rate, it just adds to all the shocks that have hit the orderly functioning of state institutions after June 12.

Amidst all the demonstrations, the detentions and trials, and the political machinations, the Iranian Government is effectively suspended. And the longer that situation persists, the more the question emerges: when is there a breaking point, not of showdown in the streets or in the Parliament, but in day-to-day life?
Monday
Aug172009

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

NEW Video: Ayatollah Sane'i's Criticism (12 August)
NEW Video: When Hashemi Met Ahmadi (17 August)
Questions for the “Green Path of Hope” and for the Government
Iran: “Beloved and Popular” Mr Ahmadinejad Wants to See You in New York!

The Latest from Iran (16 August): New Challenge to Khamenei?

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KARROUBI2

2105 GMT: Jomhoori Eslami has published a statement from 120 physicians and faculty members. After condemning the harsh and savage treatment of protesters, they assert, "It is imperative that, when the credentials of individuals aspiring to high office is being reviewed, their mental health should also be reviewed by a knowledgeable committee that the people can trust".

2100 GMT: Amir Mohsen Mohammadi, student and human rights activist, has been released from detention on $150,000 bail. Mohammadi had been detained since 14 June.

1945 GMT: Our Top Tribute to Journalism. Earlier today (0930 GMT) we awarded the Gold Medal for Dumbest Western Image for #IranElection to Time magazine's "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?"

Who, you may ask, was the previous winner? Reza Sayah of CNN for his profile of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, "a woman some [i.e., Reza Sayah of CNN] are calling Iran's Michelle Obama".

1920 GMT: The sharp-eyed Josh Shahryar noted that, in its report on Sunday's third Tehran trial, Press TV's website referred to "Iran's disputed Presidential vote", the first time that the qualifier "disputed" had appeared in state media. So today's brief item on clashes outside the offices of Etemade Melli further raised an eyebrow: "All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

1840 GMT: 48 Hours to Go. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is getting warning signals about those Cabinet choices. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said, “The Majlis [Parliament] expects the president to select ministers carefully.” Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar gave Ahmadinejad a wrist-slap for Sunday's televised announcement of six proposed ministers, presented without any information to Parliament, “This time the president introduced some of the nominees directly through media which is unprecedented."

1830 GMT: As President Ahmadinejad prepares to propose his Cabinet, the Supreme Leader is moving his own pieces on the political chessboard. He has appointed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, who just stepped down as head of Iran's judiciary, to both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council.

1715 GMT: The spokesman of Mehdi Karroubi's party Etemade Melli has told Saham News that judicial officials will meet tomorrow with the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper to discuss outstanding issues. The spokesman stated that there is a high probability that, after the conclusion of this meeting, Etemade Melli will resume publication.

1650 GMT: Peykairan reports that 15 people were arrested, two women beaten, and a bus attacked in clashes in 7 Tir Square.

1605 GMT: Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani today:
"In case of delivering fair verdicts, the society will have a sense of security and no one will feel helpless in asserting his violated rights," said the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned that if the nation feels troubled by the judicial treatment of detainees "the society will descent into chaos."

That would have been hard enough for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hear (except, according to some reports, he walked out before the end of the speech). But how about this? Press TV, a state media outlet, headlines the account to pin the blame on the Government: "In Iran, Rafsanjani links 'Unjust' Verdicts to Chaos."

1500 GMT: Very reliable sources have confirmed to EA that the suspension of Etemade Melli "until further notice", reported by Iranian Students News Agency earlier today, is true. The communique from the Culture Ministry rescinds the publishing licence of Etemade Melli due to its "repeated publication" of "illegal" articles that have produced "many complaints".

1344 GMT: Associated Press, from Iranian state television, is reporting the following statement from Mohammad Sadegh Larijani at his inauguration ceremony as head of Iran's judiciary: "Nobody should dare ... to violate rights or security of citizens. I announce that I will not forgive anybody in this regard and violators will be put on trial."

1340 GMT: Reliable Twitter source says journalist Kaveh Mozaffari will be released from detention today. Mozaffari was arrested on 9 July, the day of the 18 Tir demonstrations.

1325 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that, despite the initial ban on its publication (later denied by Tehran's chief prosecutor, who said that it was just "printing problems"), Etemade Melli newspaper did appear today.

1320 GMT: Reuters reports, "Up to 60 opposition supporters chanted 'Death to the Dictator' Monday near the building of a reformist newspaper....Police at the scene in downtown Tehran prevented the demonstrators from gathering in front of the offices of the Etemad-e Melli newspaper of leading reformist Mehdi Karoubi, the witness said."

1310 GMT: Twitter filled with unconfirmed reports of clashes in front of offices of Etemade Melli, with Basiji militia allegedly attacking demonstrators. Other reports that protestors are moving towards 7 Tir Square.

1220 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the video of the encounter between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary. An EA correspondent comments, "Have to say that Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad warmth is slightly unnerving."

1130 GMT: A Very Interesting Development. According to the Iranian Labour News Agency, Hashemi Rafsanjani is taking part in the inauguration ceremony for Sadegh Larijani. Other people attending are President Ahmadinejad, former Revolutionary Guard chief Rahim Safavi, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Speaker of Palriament Ali Larijani, Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, and Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Khadkhodai.

One EA correspondent asks, "Is Rafsanjani breaking ranks? He surely looks like fish out of the water in this midst." Or is Rafsanjani trying to build up his political base by showing that, amidst the tensions and conflicts with the President, he can still work with other Establishment figures. Or, to put the issue narrowly, is Sadegh Larijani's appointment so important for Rafsanjani that his public support outweighs his association with those he might consider as political enemies?

1045 GMT: A very slow news morning, punctuated only by this Twitter chatter: "Sea of Green will gather 4pm TODAY (Mordad 26/August 17) Karimkhan St". Etemade Melli party website, connected with Mehdi Karroubi, continues to feature headline that gathering for today in front of Etemade Melli newspaper has been called off.

0930 GMT: Possibly the Dumbest Headline of This Crisis. Congratulations, Time magazine: "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?" This attempt to give the Larijani brothers a "Western" makeover continues in the opening paragraph:
The brothers Larijani — often referred to as the Kennedys of Iran — are emerging as a powerful counterweight to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from within the conservative camp. And unlike other Ahmadinejad rivals, the Larijanis are fully endorsed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei.

Several problems with that political "analysis" spring to mind. Even a passing look at our analyses over the last week of the manoeuvres within the Iranian establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Supreme Leader, the President, the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics of Qom --- should offer a complex situation that goes beyond Larijanis in the Blue Corner, with the Supreme Leader as their towelman, and Mahmoud in the Red Corner.

For now, however, we ask readers, especially in Iran: do you know of any reference inside the country to the Larijanis as "the Kennedys"?

0715 GMT: Might as well begin today's updates with a chuckle. The chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi, has denied that last night's closure of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi (pictured), was because of a Government order: "Etemade Melli has not been shut down....[The paper] was not distributed on Monday following problems in its printing-office."

According to Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein, the paper was ordered to halt its presses after publishing a letter from Mehdi Karroubi responding to "insults" against him over his allegations of abuse of detainees.

0710 GMT:  A quiet start to the morning so we've posted an analysis which we hope will be both informative and provocative, "Question for the 'Green Path of Hope' and for the Government".