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Monday
Aug172009

The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre

NEW Video: Ayatollah Sane'i's Criticism (12 August)
NEW Video: When Hashemi Met Ahmadi (17 August)
Questions for the “Green Path of Hope” and for the Government
Iran: “Beloved and Popular” Mr Ahmadinejad Wants to See You in New York!

The Latest from Iran (16 August): New Challenge to Khamenei?

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KARROUBI2

2105 GMT: Jomhoori Eslami has published a statement from 120 physicians and faculty members. After condemning the harsh and savage treatment of protesters, they assert, "It is imperative that, when the credentials of individuals aspiring to high office is being reviewed, their mental health should also be reviewed by a knowledgeable committee that the people can trust".

2100 GMT: Amir Mohsen Mohammadi, student and human rights activist, has been released from detention on $150,000 bail. Mohammadi had been detained since 14 June.

1945 GMT: Our Top Tribute to Journalism. Earlier today (0930 GMT) we awarded the Gold Medal for Dumbest Western Image for #IranElection to Time magazine's "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?"

Who, you may ask, was the previous winner? Reza Sayah of CNN for his profile of Zahra Rahnavard, Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, "a woman some [i.e., Reza Sayah of CNN] are calling Iran's Michelle Obama".

1920 GMT: The sharp-eyed Josh Shahryar noted that, in its report on Sunday's third Tehran trial, Press TV's website referred to "Iran's disputed Presidential vote", the first time that the qualifier "disputed" had appeared in state media. So today's brief item on clashes outside the offices of Etemade Melli further raised an eyebrow: "All gatherings have been banned in a crackdown on mass protests that erupted after the disputed election of 12 June.

1840 GMT: 48 Hours to Go. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is getting warning signals about those Cabinet choices. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has said, “The Majlis [Parliament] expects the president to select ministers carefully.” Deputy Speaker Mohammad-Reza Bahonar gave Ahmadinejad a wrist-slap for Sunday's televised announcement of six proposed ministers, presented without any information to Parliament, “This time the president introduced some of the nominees directly through media which is unprecedented."

1830 GMT: As President Ahmadinejad prepares to propose his Cabinet, the Supreme Leader is moving his own pieces on the political chessboard. He has appointed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, who just stepped down as head of Iran's judiciary, to both the Expediency Council and the Guardian Council.

1715 GMT: The spokesman of Mehdi Karroubi's party Etemade Melli has told Saham News that judicial officials will meet tomorrow with the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper to discuss outstanding issues. The spokesman stated that there is a high probability that, after the conclusion of this meeting, Etemade Melli will resume publication.

1650 GMT: Peykairan reports that 15 people were arrested, two women beaten, and a bus attacked in clashes in 7 Tir Square.

1605 GMT: Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani today:
"In case of delivering fair verdicts, the society will have a sense of security and no one will feel helpless in asserting his violated rights," said the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned that if the nation feels troubled by the judicial treatment of detainees "the society will descent into chaos."

That would have been hard enough for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hear (except, according to some reports, he walked out before the end of the speech). But how about this? Press TV, a state media outlet, headlines the account to pin the blame on the Government: "In Iran, Rafsanjani links 'Unjust' Verdicts to Chaos."

1500 GMT: Very reliable sources have confirmed to EA that the suspension of Etemade Melli "until further notice", reported by Iranian Students News Agency earlier today, is true. The communique from the Culture Ministry rescinds the publishing licence of Etemade Melli due to its "repeated publication" of "illegal" articles that have produced "many complaints".

1344 GMT: Associated Press, from Iranian state television, is reporting the following statement from Mohammad Sadegh Larijani at his inauguration ceremony as head of Iran's judiciary: "Nobody should dare ... to violate rights or security of citizens. I announce that I will not forgive anybody in this regard and violators will be put on trial."

1340 GMT: Reliable Twitter source says journalist Kaveh Mozaffari will be released from detention today. Mozaffari was arrested on 9 July, the day of the 18 Tir demonstrations.

1325 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that, despite the initial ban on its publication (later denied by Tehran's chief prosecutor, who said that it was just "printing problems"), Etemade Melli newspaper did appear today.

1320 GMT: Reuters reports, "Up to 60 opposition supporters chanted 'Death to the Dictator' Monday near the building of a reformist newspaper....Police at the scene in downtown Tehran prevented the demonstrators from gathering in front of the offices of the Etemad-e Melli newspaper of leading reformist Mehdi Karoubi, the witness said."

1310 GMT: Twitter filled with unconfirmed reports of clashes in front of offices of Etemade Melli, with Basiji militia allegedly attacking demonstrators. Other reports that protestors are moving towards 7 Tir Square.

1220 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the video of the encounter between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani at today's inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary. An EA correspondent comments, "Have to say that Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad warmth is slightly unnerving."

1130 GMT: A Very Interesting Development. According to the Iranian Labour News Agency, Hashemi Rafsanjani is taking part in the inauguration ceremony for Sadegh Larijani. Other people attending are President Ahmadinejad, former Revolutionary Guard chief Rahim Safavi, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Speaker of Palriament Ali Larijani, Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, and Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Khadkhodai.

One EA correspondent asks, "Is Rafsanjani breaking ranks? He surely looks like fish out of the water in this midst." Or is Rafsanjani trying to build up his political base by showing that, amidst the tensions and conflicts with the President, he can still work with other Establishment figures. Or, to put the issue narrowly, is Sadegh Larijani's appointment so important for Rafsanjani that his public support outweighs his association with those he might consider as political enemies?

1045 GMT: A very slow news morning, punctuated only by this Twitter chatter: "Sea of Green will gather 4pm TODAY (Mordad 26/August 17) Karimkhan St". Etemade Melli party website, connected with Mehdi Karroubi, continues to feature headline that gathering for today in front of Etemade Melli newspaper has been called off.

0930 GMT: Possibly the Dumbest Headline of This Crisis. Congratulations, Time magazine: "Will Iran's 'Kennedys' Challenge Ahmadinejad?" This attempt to give the Larijani brothers a "Western" makeover continues in the opening paragraph:
The brothers Larijani — often referred to as the Kennedys of Iran — are emerging as a powerful counterweight to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from within the conservative camp. And unlike other Ahmadinejad rivals, the Larijanis are fully endorsed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei.

Several problems with that political "analysis" spring to mind. Even a passing look at our analyses over the last week of the manoeuvres within the Iranian establishment --- Parliament, the judiciary, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Supreme Leader, the President, the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics of Qom --- should offer a complex situation that goes beyond Larijanis in the Blue Corner, with the Supreme Leader as their towelman, and Mahmoud in the Red Corner.

For now, however, we ask readers, especially in Iran: do you know of any reference inside the country to the Larijanis as "the Kennedys"?

0715 GMT: Might as well begin today's updates with a chuckle. The chief prosecutor of Tehran, Saeed Mortazavi, has denied that last night's closure of the Etemade Melli newspaper, associated with Mehdi Karroubi (pictured), was because of a Government order: "Etemade Melli has not been shut down....[The paper] was not distributed on Monday following problems in its printing-office."

According to Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein, the paper was ordered to halt its presses after publishing a letter from Mehdi Karroubi responding to "insults" against him over his allegations of abuse of detainees.

0710 GMT:  A quiet start to the morning so we've posted an analysis which we hope will be both informative and provocative, "Question for the 'Green Path of Hope' and for the Government".

Reader Comments (9)

please do not compair this three donkies to kenedy brothers.
this is against the humanity and very disrespectful toward kenedy's family, i am an iranian, but i would sue you for this compareson. please dont do that again.
right now these three brothers, dancing their ass off, from happiness, you made their day, which is unforgivable act!!!!

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered Commenteradriana

The Kennedy brothers had their major flaws, too. On the surface, they were the product of a corrupt father, they were enlightened and they ran the judiciary, presidency and the senate at times. Powerful political clan, however through it all they served the American people, they opened doors of change, and they actually inspired millions and engaged America in politics. The Larijani mobsters have managed to adopt and copy all the flaws of the Kennedy clan, but where lies the positive good points? To compare these goons to the Kennedys, is similar to seeing the picture of Virgin Mary in my dogs poop.

I recommend the Times reporters stay out of the insulting realm of sensational reporting. Iranian people are going to the streets, getting hit by batons and having their skulls broken for some dumb reporter to compare Kennedy to Larijani? That now I have to say sounds suspicious of western reporting bias. Now if the objective is to put a western face to it, for the common man to understand, then here is a good one. How about a new subject. Compare the Larijani's to the Corleone brothers from the famous American movie God father.

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterwhereismyvote

Dear Scott,

About the Time headline...

If MSM worked, you and I wouldn't be forced to take action. Give up on them already. Thanks for continuing to point out the idiocy of a media that has no sense of duty or responsibility - but an insatiable hunger for more money. Disgusting and despicable...

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterNiteOwl

[...] 17. August 2009 — Thomas v. der Osten-Sacken Read This Signal. Press TV English highlights Hashemi Rafsanjani’s speech at the inauguration of Mohammad Sadegh [...]

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterInto Chaos… « FREE

Maybe the Larijanis refer to themselves as the "Kennedys of Iran"!?

In seriousness, I'd be inclined to give Robin Wright the benefit of the doubt on this. There are better chroniclers of Iran than her, but she is not a complete novice.

My guess is that she made a ham-fisted analogy in an attempt to make the subject relevant to a non-specialist, American audience. I'd be curious to learn what her source for the analogy is.

The critical take away from the article though -- that the Larijanis are more opportunists than ideologues -- strikes me as more correct than incorrect.

"But critics also charge that the Larijani brothers have risen so far as much from opportunism as political savvy. Many analysts believe Ali Larijani may be positioning himself to run for the presidency again after Ahmadinejad's term ends in 2013. 'They are nakedly ambitious. Their overarching principle seems to be to position themselves wherever power lies,' said Sadjadpour. 'If the Shah were still in power, they'd be coveting him. And if Iran evolves into a democracy, they'll try and reinvent themselves as progressive democrats.'"

i.e. self-preservation is the only motivating principle for the Larijanis.

The Kennedy analogy is not central to the piece's analysis (e.g. it holds only in the sense that politics are a kind of family business for them; i.e. that they are a "political dynasty". The analogy doesn't hold in many other respects. e.g. the Kennedys took risks to advance causes greater than themselves; the Larijanis are merely opportunists).

My two cents.

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJP

JP,

I agree that Robin Wright is far from amateurish in coverage of Iran, which makes the headline and lead paragraph doubly unfortunate: they demean an attempt to assess the shifting power relationships within the regime.

That said, I also think Wright was misguided in a simplistic lumping together of the Larijani brothers, who do differ in their political approaches. I also think that "self-preservation" (which could be a motive attributed to most politicians) does not do much to illuminate the motives, skills, and weaknesses of any of the Larijani brothers.

S.

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

WITH ALL DO REPECT TO YOU AND YOUR REPORTERS, CAN I ASK YOU, PLEASE, WHENEVER YOU HAD TO BRING UP IRAN'S SELECTED PRESIDEN'S NAME, USE "AN" INSTEAD OF HIS FULL NAME,
(AN MEANS SHIT, HE DESERVES THIS LAST NAME MORE)
THANKS AGAIN FOR WONDERFULL JOB YOU ARE DOING, I REALLY ENJOY YOUR REPORTS AND I KEPT THEM IN A FILE AS A REFRECE FOR MY HISTORY PROJECT, NO I AM JOKING, I AM GETTING OLD AND I NEED THIS TO REMINDE ME OF THESE DAYS.

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered Commenteradriana

If the Larijani brothers are the Kennedys, then Khamenei is Queen Elizabeth.

August 17, 2009 | Unregistered Commentermahasti

[...] here to see the original: The Latest from Iran (17 August): Waiting for the Next Manoeuvre … Tags: crisis, dumbest, Headline, opening, the-opening [...]

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