Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives? The Picture (17 October)

NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal
The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

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URGENT UPDATE 1755 GMT: EA's Mr Smith may have solved the mystery in favour of a "true" meeting. He has discovered a set of photographs on the Fars News site of the official reception at the Presidential compound for the Senegalese President, who is dressed in the same fashion as in the photograph with the Supreme Leader. Khamenei's office is only two blocks from the Presidential compound.





UPDATE 1645 GMT: We're doing some checking to address the obvious question of whether this is a photograph from today. The Supreme Leader also met President Wade on 28 June 2006 and on 28 February 2008, discussing the issue of Western pressure on Iran's nuclear programme.

The Supreme Leader's official websites have posted a picture of Ayatollah Khamenei meeting with the President of Senegal, Abdoulaye Wade, and President Ahmadinejad today. The accompanying article expressed the Supreme Leader's satisfaction with "development of trade, industrial and economic links between the two countries". Khamenei also praised the Islamic Conference Organization, of which Senegal is currently the President, for its pursuit of the Palestinian issue.



The Islamic Republic News Agency's site has a space for the photograph but no picture. Fars News has a similar version of the story but curiously uses a photograph from the 2006 meeting.

Iran: The Daily Show Tribute (Persian and English Versions)

Iran: To Its People, To The Future (A Daily Show Tribute)
Iran: For Those Still Detained (A Daily Show Tribute)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal

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In June, just before the election, The Daily Show --- the best satirical "news" programme on television --- sent correspondent Jason Jones to Iran. The five reports that followed, airing the week after the Presidential vote and amidst the first mass demonstrations, were enlightening and poignant as well as humourous. Jones interviewed three people who would soon be in detention (two of them still are): former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Ebrahim Yazdi, and journalist Maziar Bahari. He met Iranians in the shopping malls, on the street, and in their homes, discovering that they were far from the enemies of "The Great Satan". And he and his producer returned to the US studio with this remarkable discussion, now translated into Persian, with Jon Stewart.

(Ironically, because of copyright issues, the original English-language videos from The Daily Show cannot be viewed outside the US. So, after the Farsi version, we've posted the "behind the scenes" English-language video on the making of the programmes.)



Daily Show Travels to Iran - (Farsi Translated version) from sahar sarshar on Vimeo.



Daily Show Goes to Iran from sahar sarshar on Vimeo.

Great Obama Conspiracy Theories: Glenn Beck, Monty Python, and Anne Elk's Brontosaurus

Rabble-Rouser on Fire: Glenn Beck, Tom Paine, and Obama’s Pearl Harbor/9-11 Fascism

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There's nothing notable anymore about Glenn Beck's ravings --- how often can you pretend to set someone on fire, use the ghost of Tom Paine to call Barack Obama a fascist, or cry about "what life used to be like"?), be they a quest for fame and lots of money, political psychosis, or genuine bats*** craziness. However, this video from Crooks and Liars elevates Beck's latest conspiracy theory  of "Barack Obama's Six Degrees of Separation from Mao Zedong" by mashing it up with the 1970s wisdom of the famous scientist Miss Anne Elk:

Britain, the US, and Torture: Scott Lucas on BBC (16 October)

Britain, the US, and Torture: David Miliband is Still a Liar

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Within hours of the British court order for the release of documents connected with the alleged torture of detainee Binyam Mohamed, and British Foreign Minister David Miliband's insistence that release of the material would risk the US-UK intelligence relationship, I spoke with Peter Allen of BBC Radio 5 about the case (and, yes, I did use the word "lie" with reference to Mr Miliband). The interview starts just before the 2:20.00 mark.

The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi

NEW A Brilliant Neo-Con Idea: Crippling Iran to Save It
NEW Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to the Economy, Past and Present
Iran: Karroubi Responds to Government Threats “Bring. It. On.”
Iran: The Latest on Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (15 October): Restricting the Movement

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1945 GMT: The English-language website of Mowj-e-Sabz has a short summary of the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (1500 GMT).

1830 GMT: After a four-day absence, fueling speculation of a connection to the ill health of the Supreme Leader (0645 GMT), the newspaper Kayhan has reappeared today.

1515 GMT: The Battle Goes On. Yesterday Karroubi made clear his intention to stand firm against Government threats of arrests. So today the Government reiterated the warnings. The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has repeated to the Islamic Republic News Agency that the consideration of charges is "very serious".

1500 GMT: Mousavi and Khatami Meet. Parleman News summarises a discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, who asserted that the Iranian nation will not be diverted from its course by "force and pressure". The post-election movement had awakened Iran to the blessings of Islamic Revolution, especially its path toward justice, freedom, independence, and honour, and it would not deviate from its attachment to those ideals."

1345 GMT: Nice response to today's Friday Prayers on Twitter: "Hey Jannati, thanks for the free publicity! You told WAY more ppl about 13 Aban [4 November demonstrations] than the Greens could!"

1255 GMT: HomyLafayette has posted a summary of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayers (see 1015 GMT):

"Jannati warned Greens against trying to exploit anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, 4 November [13 Aban]. He said that their schemes...will be neutralized. Some people who are tools of others want to show their American and Israeli natures on 4 November. If judiciary and security apparatus treat protesters with leniency, they are traitors to Islam and the Revolution."

1235 GMT: In the Midst of Uncertainty, Comedy. Fars News' fumbling attempt to turn the Khamenei health rumours into high evidence of the foreign-directed velvet revolution is book-ended by Michael Ledeen's latest entry onto the stage.

Ledeen's feigned modesty, "I have been given more credit than is absolutely necessary," is belied by his failure to acknowledge the true source of the rumour --- the Peiknet report of doctors at Khamenei's house --- and his surprise at the supposed outcome of his words, "It follows that I effectively shut down the Tehran Bazaar!"

What is most entertaining, however, if contributing nothing at all to knowledge are more Ledeen claims into the air --- "Not only was the Bazaar closed, but there seems to be a run on staples, as people stock up against the possibility of unsettled times" --- and this far-fetched explanation (from "Iranian friends") of the most prominent denial of the rumours so far: "The people at Tabnak believed I had it right, and they put it up in order to say “hey look at this! The Americans know our most secret secrets.”

1055 GMT: Khamenei's Health Rumours? Blame the Velvet Revolution. OK, we've got a long, convoluted denial of the health scare story, courtesy of Fars News. According to their "analyst", this is all part of the post-election scheme, similar to undermine the regime (the Government's bogeyman, financier George Soros, even makes an appearance). And the author is pointed in drawing a comparison with the rumours in 2007 of Khamenei's demise.

1015 GMT: Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, using the analogy of Imam Sadegh, the 6th Imam, has declared that the issues of security in the Islamic Republic are due to "a lack of respect".

0900 GMT: Bad news for John Hannah, the former advisor to Dick Cheney who is trying to "help" Iran's people by crippling the economy (0845 GMT). China just made it clearer than clear that sanctions are not on the agenda. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at a Thursday press conference his guest, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, declared, "The Sino-Iranian relationship has witnessed rapid development, as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened."

0845 GMT: We've posted two special analyses this morning: our newest correspondent, Mohammad Khiabani, introduces readers to the issues in the Iranian economy, while Maryam from Keeping the Change takes on the former Bush Administration official who is advocating harsh economic sanctions "on behalf of Iran's people".

0645 GMT: At one point yesterday, caught up in the rumours of the Supreme Leader's illness or death, I was inappropriately reminded of a classic sketch from the US show Saturday Night Live, in which newscaster Chevy Chase would sombrely inform the audience, "Spain's Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead." (Trust me, I'm looking for the video clip.)

Well, Franco is still dead and Ayatollah Khamenei is still not dead, as far as we know. There are indications that something is amiss in Iran: the "hard-line" daily Kayhan has not published since Monday, the English-language Tehran Times has been silent since Tuesday. The Supreme Leader's official sites, leader.ir and khamenei.ir, have not denied the rumours. Leader.ir has been quiet for a week and khamenei.ir refers the reader to the one Iranian newspaper responding to the rumours: Tabnak denounces the US activist Michael Ledeen (who, just as a reminder, was not the original source for the current round of Khamenei rumours; that honour goes to Peiknet, a website associated with "left" Iranian exiles).

The one counter-indication is a note on the Facebook site run by Khamenei supporters, which claims the Supreme Leader was present Wednesday at the rites for Imam Sadegh. If that was true, however, one would expect to have seen the news elsewhere in the Iranian press. So here's our own position: we're on watch, but making no conclusions. If there is no official denial by the end of today, then we will begin thinking that there may be substance to the original Peiknet report.This is not that Khamenei has died, but that he is too ill to be in public.

Part of our caution on the Supreme Leader story is because it is obscuring political developments which are both 100% confirmed and 100% significant. The headline event yesterday was Mehdi Karroubi's defiant response to the Government threats to arrest him. He not only refused to withdraw his allegations of the system's abuses; he promised a doubling and re-doubling of evidence if he was charged.

The initial read is easy: Karroubi will not lie down. Just as in August, when he was threatened with court action, just as in September, when he was told by Ali Larijani to be quiet, the cleric has responded by making himself visible and heard. And this is being achieved despite the Government's 24/7 surveillance on Karroubi and his house.

The more difficult read is whether this marks another surge in the opposition movement. That, as we noted earlier this week, cannot rest on Karroubi alone. Hashemi Rafsanjani appears to be in a phase of fighting for his personal position, but Mir Hossein Mousavi joined Karroubi's most recent push, the meeting of last Saturday. Will he make an appearance this weekend, despite his own difficulties in moving (and even talking) under the regime's gaze? And what does the Green Wave take from yesterday's remarks of the man who some are calling "Obi-Wan Karroubi" (Yes, really.)?

The demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November) are 19 days away.