The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1730 GMT: We have posted a separate entry which explains everything about the Shahram Amiri nuclear scientist defection/abduction case...in a single cartoon.

1720 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over. The website post one item that the "Bazaari Guilds Council in crisis" and another that some vendors do not accept the wishes of their representatives --- presumably a reference to the claimed deal for a 15% tax increase --- and have even managed to cut off power in some parts of the Bazaar.

NEW Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
NEW Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

1718 GMT: You Know, Vacations Do Cost Money. Claim of the day in the Iranian media via a member of Parliament's National Security Commission: the extra two holidays this week, allegedly because of high temperatures, have meant a $4 billion loss to Iran's economy.

1715 GMT: Swallowing the Bazaar? The new website Green Correspondents posts an analysis asserting that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are seeking to take over the bazaar, cutting off its "traditional relationships".

1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption). The Supreme Leader before military officers on Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Day.



1400 GMT: Grounding Iran's Flights? After confirmation that BP has stopped supplying fuel air to Iran Air at Hamburg Airport in Germany, Mohammad Reza Rajabi, Iran Air's head in Hamburg, has admitted, "Finding a substitute for BP to provide Iranian passenger planes with fuel in Hamburg airport will take some time."

1335 GMT: Khabar Online's Punches of the Day. And now, courtesy of our friends at Khabar Online (did we mention that the website is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani?), the first of a regular feature on its jabs at President Ahmadinejad.

As the anniversary of the death in Kahrizak Prison of Mohsen Ruholamini approaches, the website features his father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, a key advisor to former Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who repeats his call for Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi to "be tried as promised and announced".

And, in the business section, it appears that 110 Mercedes vehicles for Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry have been imported without paying the required taxes.

1035 GMT: Break Time. Apologies that updates are sporadic today, as I move between seminars and a plenary lecture this afternoon.

Thanks to all for keeping the news flowing.

1030 GMT: The Battle Within. A (relatively) gentler statement from key MP and Ahmadinejad critic Ali Motahhari: the relationship between govt and Majlis is critical --- if it is positive, it helps to overcome mistakes.

1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

0820 GMT: Parliament (and a Cleric) v. President: MP Mohammad Ali Karimi comments, "Imam Khomeini believed that the parliament is at the heart of Islamic republic. But the government is not respecting the parliament’s approved laws." Karimi, referring to the President, asserted, "By dreaming we can not manage the country, let alone the world."

0810 GMT: Culture Corner. An EA correspondent checks in with the hot topic for chatter amongst young Iranians. Bazaar strike? Economic issues? The postponement of the President's trip to Lebanon?

No. It's this: "The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has not granted a license to any Iranian expatriate pop singers living in Los Angeles, the culture minister said on Monday."

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Lawmakers have lodged a motion for impeachment against Minister of Agriculture Sadeq Khalilian.

The specific grievance is dissatisfaction with excessive imports of food products. The broader allegation is Khalilian's lack of skill.

0625 GMT: We begin this morning with a bit of a diversion, noting in an analysis how the tangled covering post-election Iran turned EA into a US "neo-conservative" on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz.

Most of our colleagues in the international mainstream press begin with a bit of a diversion, devoting their attention to the return of scientist Shahram Amiri --- did he defect? was he kidnapped? --- from the US to Iran.

Meanwhile...

Tuesday's Top Quote

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbar comments on recent political and economic developments by noting the Supreme Leader's of this Iranian year as a "Year of Productivity": "Is this the year of extra work or extra holidays?"

Extra Holidays, Well, Strikes Actually

We had reported yesterday that the Tehran Bazaar was almost completely closed as the supposed deal between the Government and Bazaaris apparently fell through.

It appears that was also the case in Tabriz.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.

The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1010 GMT: Trouble in Lebanon. Green Voice of Freedom claims that followers in Lebanon of the late Grand Ayatollah Fadlallahttp://www.irangreenvoice.org/article/2010/jul/12/5221, the head of the Guardian Council, from holding the prayer of the dead (namaz-e mayyet) in South Beirut, interrupting the ceremony and causing the body to be transported to another place. Fadlallah's faithful shouted at Jannati: "Let him rest in peace, he was innocent" and "You did wrong to him, let him sleep in peace."

NEW Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
Iran Special: A Response to “The Plot Against Ahmadinejad” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (11 July): Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot

1900 GMT. And There's Larijani. Well, well, looks like Ali Larijani is making public allusions again: Speaking in Karaj, he said, "Whenever there is a revolution, some opportunists claim the heritage."

Now who could he mean?

1830 GMT: Parliament v. President. It may be a Government-declared holiday but that does not mean a cessation of criticism of President Ahmadinejad.

Hassan Sobhani alleged that the Government has ignored the approved laws by Parliament for two months and has trampled upon the Constitution. The educational commission of Parliament has sent two letters to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and has complained about the breaking of law by Minister of Education Hamid-Reza Haji Babai and Minster of Science Kamran Daneshjoo.

MP Mostafa Kavakebian has criticised the President for his statement (see 0955 GMT) that the country should only have one political party, the Velayat Party. Kavakebian said, "I am ready for debate with Ahmadinejad any time and anywhere, to prove to him to improve democracy in Iran is the expansion of parties."

Parliament's Research Department has released a report criticising the Government's handling of the economy,  noting in particular the increase in  the unemployment rate.

The Department is run by Ahmad Tavakoli, a Larijani ally and alleged central figure in talks to limit Ahmadinejad's authority or even remove him from power.

1810 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Activists are claiming, from BBC Persian, that the Government has resolved the dispute with Bazaar vendors by reducing the tax hike from 70% to 15%.

1750 GMT: Rahnavard's Statement. The Facebook page supporting Zahra Rahnavard has posted her interview with Rooz (see 0715 GMT) and an English extract:

Lack of criticism leads to stagnation. Everyone needs to be criticized. We welcome all criticism that stems as a result of friendship and interest in the Green movement....All those who believe in change towards freedom, free elections and non interference by the government in people's personal lives are Green.

1745 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Back from long break for teaching in Dublin to find the reminder that, while it is quiet today, all is far from peaceful. Reuters catches up with the story that Iran's bazaars may be entering a second week of strikes.

0955 GMT: Political Move of Day. President Ahmadinejad has declared that "Iran needs only one party, the Velayat Party", and has spoken again of taking over Islamic Azad University.

0835 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. The chatter is over  "Statement #3 of Bazaari Guilds", announcing a continuation of the Tehran Bazaar strike for Tuesday. Other bazaars from Tabriz, Mashhad, Qazvin, and Kermanshah have reportedly announced they will join the strike.

0715 GMT: Rooz Online has posted an interview with Zahra Rahnavard, activist, academic, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz is claiming that Haj Kashani, a famous fabric merchant, was killed last week by Basij militiamen who tried to disrupt the Tehran Bazaar strike.

0435 GMT: Nuclear Talk. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, is putting out the message that Tehran now has 20 kilogrammes of 20% enriched uranium.

0430 GMT: The Labour Front. Tehran Bureau features the translation of an interview with Sohrab Behdad, carried out by Deutsche Welle, on "The Green Movement and the Working Class".

0425 GMT: We may have a lighter day on the news front, partly because EA staff are on the road, partly because Iran is in its extra two-day holiday, supposedly because of the high temperatures across the country.

So we open the morning with an easy-going chuckle, we hope, looking at the continuing story of Iran's guidance on men's hairstyles and an apparent counter-attack: The Revenge of the Mullets.

Iran Special: A Response to "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad" (Verde)

Mr Verde assesses EA's Saturday "exclusive" on the planning amongst leading Iranian conservatives/principlists to limit the President's authority or even remove him from office

I thank him and offer this quick addition. I fully agree that the plotters against Ahmadinejad are "trying to protect their own interests within the regime...[rather] than offering a real change of direction". The evidence from our sources may indicate that they no longer think their interests can be protected with the President in office.

But, as Mr Verde notes, their success depends on getting the Supreme Leader to accept this point of view (and possibly setting up defences against a response by the Revolutionary Guard). That success in turn needs more than the current base of planners: Hashemi Rafsanjani and senior clerics, in their view, have to be added. Until they see this as likely, the private manoeuvres of Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli will not become public beyond their speeches challenging the Government:

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

As the exclusive notes, under the present circumstances the possibility that Ahmadinejad is impeached by the Parliament is unlikely. They will need the signature of 1/3 of MPs to start the process and a 2/3 vote to actually impeach him.

We all saw what happened when the Majlis voted against the pro-Ahmadinejad Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution in the contest over Islamic Azad University, in which the Parliament backed down within 48 hours. In an impeachment process, we would probably witness more than a busload of thugs in front of Majlis.

Even if the president is impeached, the Supreme Leader will have the final say in dismissing him and Khamenei has invested too much on Ahmadinejad. And even if Ahmadinejad were to be dismissed, the First VP Mohammad Reza Rahimi would become an interim president. Because the planners have as many problems with Rahimi as they do with Ahmadinejad, they would have to get rid of him before moving on the President.

All this new talk of attacking and threatening Ahmadinejad by the Larijani-Rezaei axis is probably from a position of weakness rather than strength. They feel that, as a result of changes in the past few years and especially the last 12 months, Ahmadinejad and Co. are moving to limit their power and influence. With Khamenei’s intervention in the Azad University case, they have found some space to try to push back against Ahmadinejad ----the Kahrizak Prison abuse scandal and Rahimi’s corruption case are just convenient excuses. So this could be more a rear-guard action than a strategy for attack.

The events of the past year have resulted in a logjam within the Islamic Republic. The election fraud and the post-election actions by the regime have left the Republic’s reputation in pieces. Violence on behalf of the Islamic Republic against its own citizens is not new; what is new is that this time the violence has been directed at the entire population rather than targeted at specific groups, like the leftists, MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq], reformists, etc.

As the Supreme Leader, Khamenei has clearly said that he supports Ahmadinejad, and within the regime he has concentrated power in the hands of a small faction that is behind the President. If he were to move against Ahmadinejad now, there were be two consequences. Firstly, the people who are behind Ahmadinejad would rebel against the decision, further damaging the Supreme Leader's reputation and influence. Secondly, Khamenei would be admitting that his decision to back Ahmadinejad wholeheartedly was wrong. This would lead to more serious questions about his judgement and his ability to remain in charge. More of the Republic’s servants would doubt Khamenei as the Leader and the legitimacy of the regime and their roles with it.

Therefore, the whole existence of the Islamic Republic could be threatened if Khamenei were to try to sacrifice Ahmadinejad. This might have been possible last summer: Khamenei could have withdrawn his support of the President then and allowed him to fall. Khamenei would have been damaged too, but he could probably have gotten away with it. But since Khamenei, for whatever reason, decided to stand by Ahmadinejad, the only way he could now get rid of him is if the regime had managed to create stability in Iran. The current situation is far from that: we are witnessing new crises on a daily basis.

Some might say that Khamenei could get rid of Ahmadinejad and install someone like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, or Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei. The problem is that this person would have to give in to at least some of the demands of the opposition and protestors. If that were to happen, the regime, which has been so inflexible, would suddenly have signalled to the population that ,with enough pressure, it would relent, no matter serious the issue. That could be the start of a new, and perhaps more determined, wave of opposition and protests.

Some might argue that the reformists can take over. They are too far from the centre of power at the present time. And it is increasingly looking like the reformists are facing ideological problems of their own. They seem to speak in paradoxes: both “return to the values Islamic Revolution” and “human rights”. They have not yet managed to explain how it would be possible to return to the values of the Revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini and install values like democracy, human rights, etc. The mess we are in at the present time is the result, not the abuse, of the values of the Revolution as interpreted by Khomeini. So a reformist takeover within the regime could lead to more public demands for change (and maybe even more protests) which could end up causing more damage to the Islamic Republic.

The regime in a precarious impasse with Ahmadinejad as a piece within the stalemate. If this piece is taken away in the present circumstances, it may lead to the whole structure collapsing

As far as the clerics are concerned, I think they are in a lose-lose situation. On the one hand, Ahmadinejad & Co. (with support from Khamenei) are moving to limit and weaken their power within the regime. On the other hand, the three decades of clerical rule in Iran have left them discredited. [Editor's Note: see an earlier analysis by Mr Verde, “The Escalating Crisis Within”).

Therefore any moves by Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei-etc against Ahamdinejad are probably more to do with them trying to protect their own interests within the regime, than a real change of direction. Otherwise, the regime could face more serious problems.

The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1915 GMT: Thanks to readers for keeping the news and analysis coming in. We're taking a personal break today (between you and me, it's the daughter's birthday party) and will be back with a full service from Sunday morning.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Arab Gol, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign team, has been released from prison on a bail of more than $100,000 after more than six months in detention.

NEW Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II
Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

1320 GMT: Heat? What Heat? The Government's holidays on Sunday and Monday for "excessive heat" seems to have disappeared for factory workers.

The Iranian Labor News Agency quotes the head of the Tehran Work and Social Affairs Organization, who says factories will be open even though government offices will be closed

An EA correspondent asks, "If the new holidays were due to hot weather, why would you close down offices but not factories whose workers would be affected more by the heat?"

1315 GMT: Remembering. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 2000 people were at Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday to remember loved ones, including those killed in post-election conflict.

1305 GMT: Supreme Leader "Justice and Peace --- Unless You're America". Meeting Iranian officials and ambassadors to commemorate Eid-al-Mab'ath, the day when Muhammad was appointed to prophethood, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offered greetings of "justice, peace, and security for all humans".

That is, with one exception. The Supreme Leader said Islam was opposed to "corrupt" Washington, with its huge budget to wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to help Israel maintain instability in the Middle East.

1105 GMT: Holidays Because of Weather Heat or Political Heat? Peyke Iran claims The head of Iran's national weather service has said his unit did not advise holidays on Sunday and Monday because of high temperatures: the "weather is no hotter than normal".

Hmm.... maybe it's the Government that is especially sensitive to the heat these days.

1100 GMT: The Right Civil Disobedience. Iranian political scientist Ramin Jahanbegloo, now living abroad, talks to Rah-e-Sabz about protest and "ending the culture of violence". Assessing opposition strategy, he declares, "Using violence as an excuse does not justify it."

0920 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that President Ahmadinejad's supporters "promote an Islam without clergy".

MP Younes Assadi has warned that, if Minister of Welfare Sadegh Mahsouli "does not change his actions", he will be called to account before the Majlis during next three months.

0900 GMT: International Development. Islamic Republic News Agency highlights the signing of six agreements in New Delhi between Iranian and Indian delegations. The pacts cover cooperation in new and renewable energy, small industry, science and technology, and pulp and paper production.

0855 GMT: Labour Front. Rah-e-Sabz claims that 200 drivers at the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkate Vahed) are on the verge of dismissal.

0715 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reihaneh Mazaheri, writing in Mianeh, reports from traders that Iran is discounting oil between $3 and $7 per barrel to prop up sales amidst sanctions and reduction in demand.

0710 GMT: Power Cut. Rah-e-Sabz claims that some parts of Tehran have gone 12 hours without electricity.

0700 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Back to our special analysis of the rising challenge to the President --- Agence France Presse has noticed something is up, quoting from a speech by Ali Larijani on Friday in Karaj:

If we want to stand up to our enemies, we need to improve the economy. Iran has big oil and gas reserves -- the way to use that wealth is not by handing out money to people but by using it to develop the nation's productive capacity. Social justice... means providing universal employment not giving monthly handouts to stop people starving....

How can you ask an ordinary villager to respect the law, if politicians don't?...We in Parliament will not allow anybody...to disregard the law because that's an act of rebellion and a shameful violation.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with an exclusive report and analysis, based on information from a range of sources, "The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II".

Meanwhile, after an 18 Tir which passed relatively quietly, even though it was the anniversary of the 1999 university demonstrations....

The Bazaar Strikes

The bazaars will now effectively be closed from this past Thursday to Monday --- the Government, because of "extreme heat", has added Sunday and Monday as public holidays to today's religious holiday of Mab'as.

Robert Tait offers an overview and analysis of the situation in an article for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Mousavi's Moves

In what has been a most active week for Mir Hossein Mousavi --- even if the effect of his moves is unknown at this point --- the opposition figure has added a statement on "The Diversity of the Green Movement", rejecting the need for a leader. He has met with reformist students to suggest, that if those who caused the catastrophe of 18 Tir (the suppression of the 1999 demonstrations) were punished, the post-election attacks on the universities dormitories would not have occurred.

In Rah-e-Sabz, Mehdi Jalali asks, "Do we want a secular Mousavi?" Jalali asserts that Mousavi could never be secular but points to his three promises of freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and organisation, and free elections as a basis for mutual trust.

Political Prisoner Watch

Video has been posted of a telephone interview with recently-released human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who claims she was abused and put in solitary confinement. She had a pulmonary embolism in prison and is still very weak.