MENA House: "The Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak"

The streets of Cairo have been covered with posters of the face of Gamal Mubarak and the slogan "Gamal Mubarak...Gamal Masr" ("Gamal Mubarak, 'The beauty' of Egypt")

The aim of the newly-formed Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak is to promote and mobilise support for Mubarak in the upcoming Presidential elections in 2011 and to  encourage him to stand.

The co-ordinator of the group, Magdi al Kurdi, claims that it has numerous supporters from a wide variety of backgrounds. He has asserted that there are already 4000 participants and that there is backing from well-established individuals from different political parties. (Magdi al Kurdi resigned from the leftist Tagammu party to support Mubarak.)

MENA House: Music and the Egyptian Revolution

However, whilst there is much talk of Gamal's situation, the son of current President Hosni Mubarak has reiterated on numerous occasions that he does not want to run for the presidency. In a rare interview, with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, Gamal answered, "Would you run for the Presidency in Egypt in the upcoming 2011 elections?" with an articulate, resounding, and convincing "No!".

So what is the point of this new group? Asked what would happen if  Gamal refused to put himself forward in 2011, El Kurdi responded that the organisation would continue to encourage Mubarak to rethink his position.

On a side note: Ali el Deen el Helal, Youth Minister and member of the National Democratic Party, has stated openly in the People's Assembly that it is "rude" to be discussing an era after Hosni Mubarak:

1) Egypt is still 16 months from the elections.

2) Discussion is impolite until Hosni Mubarak releases an official statement that he will not be running in the election.

3) Should Mubarak step down, there is no reason to worry "Egypt will find many more intelligent potential candidates".

One wonders if Ali el Deen el Helal thinks the Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak is rude and impolite in its loud consideration of Egypt's future. And perhaps one wonders what the leader of that coalition, el Helal, makes of the activities of his fellow members of the People's Assembly.

Iran Analysis: Interpreting Khamenei's "Re-Appearing" Fatwa (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

In a development almost unnoticed outside Iran, the Supreme Leader's office has not only re-claimed the "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa but has done so with a loud defence of the decision to issue it.

The latest statement on Ayatollah Khamenei's website says that only “state orders” of the Supreme Leader must be obeyed. It blames the "media of the enemy" for creating a fuss over the fatwa, since Ayatollah Khomeini held the same views, and complains about publication of the text of the fatwa next to photographs of the SL’s meeting with military commanders. [Editor's note: is this the reason why the fatwa "disappeared" for several days? But if so, why did it not appear on Khamenei's official website in the first place, removing any ambiguity?]

Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)

The statement also claims that the issuing of this fatwa will help widen the circle of regime insiders, continuing Khamenei’s call last year for inclusion.

Observations

The statement is a very angry one which tries to blame the enemy for the fuss over the fatwa and to hide behind Khoemini as well as claiming --- without saying how --- that Khamenei wants to expand the number of people within the regime.

When the fatwa was originally issued, there were probably three objectives:

1) To provide more ammunition for sackings, disqualifications and imprisonments by regime officials
2) To attempt to counter the increasing criticism of Khamenei.
3) Perhaps most significantly, to try and stop the haemorrhage of support for Khamenei within the regime’s conservative/principalist camps.

Once the fatwa was issued, it was probably met with a torrent of criticism not just from people outside of the regime, but by regime insiders and high ranking clerics. The criticism probably not only included the fatwa itself but the claimed authority of Khamenei to issue fatwas in the first place.

That may have been the reason for the fatwa being pulled from sites, but once it was, it was interpreted as a quick retreat by Khamenei. That probably led to his advisors thinking that this was even worse than the criticism of the fatwa, because it would be seen as the Supreme Leader's acceptance that the criticism was correct.

This probably led to the re-appearance of the fatwa but this time his office seems to be trying to come out fighting. If so, I must say it is a feeble attempt at a strong stand and a fight.

Conclusion

To my knowledege, this is the first time that Khamenei’s office has been forced to issue a statement about an issue over which the Supreme Leader has been criticised. Is this a sign that even the Supreme Leader’s office now believes it needs to respond to public pressure and criticism?

Note that the original fatwa says that the principle of veiayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy) is a branch of the rule of the Prophet and Shia Imams. Now, however, the statement says that the fatwa covers only “state orders”. This may be a retreat, as the original aim of the fatwa was to assert that the Supreme Leader's verdict is final in all circumstances.

To Lift The Spirits (Sequel): Dancing with Matt...in Gaza

In January 2009, we posted a video made by Matt Harding, who filmed himself dancing --- sometimes by himself, sometimes with others --- in locations around the world. (It's re-posted at the end of this entry.)

That life-affirming video now has more than 30 million hits, and Harding's second film has been viewed more than 15 million times.

But here is the ultimate sequel. "Dancing with Matt" has now gone to Gaza.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency, whose officials are relatively free from Israeli restrictions on entry into the Palestinian territory, invited Harding to "teach" his dancing to local children. An official explained, “This is an important message: kids in Gaza are like kids anywhere in the world. All they want is to have fun. If allowed to be, Gaza can be a normal place where children can thrive.”

And that for me is the most wonderful of ironies: the reason why I posted the first "Dancing with Matt" video in January 2009 was to offset the depressing, soul-sapping news of military operations taking civilian lives.

You can probably guess where that war was taking place.

Go Matt. Go Gaza. Go UNRWA.

The 2008 Video

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (26 July): Behind the International Screen

2055 GMT: Moscow is Not Amused. Looks like President Ahmadinejad went too far in his shtick of "Russia is aiding and abetting the US-Israel plot to attack Arab allies of Iran".

The Russian Foreign Ministry has put out a statement, "For us the recent public statements of the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are categorically unacceptable....[They] distorted Russia's objective approach, our independent, constructive line towards the Iranian nuclear programme with the aim of finding a political and diplomatic resolution. We consider that instead of fruitless and irresponsible rhetoric, the Iranian leadership should take concrete, constructive steps towards the speediest regulation of the situation."

Iran Analysis: Re-Defining the Green Movement (Verde)
UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
The Latest from Iran (25 July): The Re-Appearing Fatwa

2000 GMT: Academic Corner. Sima, the student newspaper at Ferdowsi University, has been banned.

1915 GMT: "Khamenei Must Go" (cont. --- see 1115 GMT). Ahmad Ghabel, seminary lecturer and author, has followed up his recent criticism of the Supreme Leader with a statement that arrests have happened with the approval of Ayatollah Khamenei and "the Iranian people are free on bail".

1910 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Canada has followed the European Union in imposing additional sanctions on Tehran, notably in the energy sector.

1630 GMT: The International Front. Forget the talking tough (see 1500 GMT): the theme today from Tehran is openness to discussions. Islamic News Republic Agency and Fars News are both highlighting the statement of Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear organisation, "The clear message of this letter [to the International Atomic Energy Agency] was Iran's complete readiness to hold negotiations over the fuel for the Tehran reactor without any conditions."

1500 GMT: Talking Tough Time. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has criticised the latest measures adopted by the European Union (see 1430 GMT), "Sanctions… will only complicate matters and move away [the parties] from mutual understanding."

Yeah, yeah, whatever (the Iranians are actually angling for talks, via contact with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Turkey and Brazil's mediation, with the EU on the uranium issue). If you want some macho fire-breathing, you have to go to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who reveals the Obama Administration is "one of lies":

You witnessed what they did to Palestinians; Israeli settlements in Palestine are expanding by the day and the Zionist regime destroys mosques and of course Gaza is still under siege....Americans wrongly perceive Lebanon as a toy but they should be more careful lest this toy severs their hand.

On the surface they condemn terrorism but behind the curtain they support terrorists… as it became clear, during [Jundullah ringleader Abdolmalek] Rigi's confessions, that he was linked to the US and NATO and they supported this terrorist cell.

1430 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The European Union has formally adopted a package of new sanctions against Iran, targeting foreign trade, banking, and energy.

1425 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reuters reports, from a shipping document, that only three cargoes of gasoline have so far reached Iran in July, far less than the seasonal norm, because of the pressure of sanctions.

Traditionally during the summer season, with people driving on holidays, Iran needs 11-13 cargoes a month.

The three cargoes this month and were supplied by Turkish refiner Tupras and the trading arm of China's Sinopec, Unipec. Another cargo is expected to arrive from Venezuela.

1150 GMT: Mousavi's Latest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in his most recent speech, has discussed the "untold story" of the war between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988.

1123 GMT: Revolutionary Guard in Control? Mehdi Karroubi, in an interview with BBC Persian, has declared that there is now an effective "monopoly" by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and the Basij militia in the country.

1120 GMT: Parliament v. President. Reformist MP Hojatoleslam Qodratollah Alikhani has complained about President Ahmadinejad's "joy" at US and UN sanctions, saying that he hopes this has not increased the prospect of war.

1115 GMT: "Khamenei Must Go". Noted Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush, now living in exile, has complemented recent calls --- from Mohsen Kadivar and Ahmad Ghabel outside the country and Isa Saharkhiz inside it --- for the Supreme Leader to step down.

1040 GMT: Rumour of Day. Parleman News claims that the Hojjatieh Society has formally applied for a licence.

Hojjatieh has provoked much comment and speculation since its founding as a semi-clandestine Shi'a organisation in 1953. It was forced to dissolve after a speech by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1983, but stories circulate that it is connected to President Ahmadinejad and other senior figures in the Iranian regime.

1035 GMT: Energy Squeeze? Deputy Minister of Oil Alireza Zeighami has said,"We need $46 billion to finish our refinery projects." The funds will contribute to new capacity for 5 billion litres of liquid fuel.

Some numbers for comparison: the $46 billion is more than 15 times the $3.1 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in 2009 --- a number pushed by Iranian officials as a sign of the country's growth --- and 92 times the amount of the $500 million bond project announced today for the South Pars gas and oil field.

1015 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will visit Hamzeh Karami, the director of Jumhoriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, in hospital. Karami, detained soon after the June 2009 election, is in intensive care with a heart condition.

Last summer, Karami's "confession" in a televised trial in Tehran was used to implicate Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, in alleged fraud and misconduct over the election.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Agence France Presse has picked up the story --- noted in our updates yesterday --- that journalist Emad Baghi, detained in December 2009 and recently released on bail, has been given a one-year sentence and banned for five years from political activities from charges in a 2008 case.

1000 GMT: Reviewing the Supreme Leader. An entry on an Iranian blog puts forth supposed reaction from clerics in Qom to Ayatollah Khameini's fatwa, "I am the Rule of the Prophet".

0955 GMT: Picture of Day. Mir Hossein Mousavi meets reformist politician Mohsen Armin, recently released from detention on $200,000 bail:



0950 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Vice Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has reiterated that the Majlis will stand up to the Ahmadinejad Government, rejecting its implementation measures.

0945 GMT: Concessions to the Villagers? Kalemeh claims that a new Government directive removes limits on social security for Sunni residents in rural areas.

0935 GMT: Setting the Record Straight. Fereshteh Ghazi interviews the family of Mohammad-Hossein Feiz, shot dead in protests on 30 June 2009. They reveal that Feiz was not a Basij militiaman, as the regime claimed, but a demonstrator.

0930 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran Negah posts a video interview with a girl living in poverty in Tehran. She says, "God only helps rich people." (Persian2English has an English translation.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnT7xl5zYDM[/youtube]

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that student Vahid Asghari has had his nose and ribs broken in Bushehr Prison.

0920 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Members of Parliament are continuing to threaten impeachment of Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian over claims that imports are driving down rice prices received by Iranian farmers.

0800 GMT: Water Pressure. Amidst stories of impurities and shortages in Iran's water supply, Tehran's Yaft-Abad quarter has installed a temporary water filter.

0730 GMT: Music of Dissent. Shahin Najafi, an Iranian musician and poet now living in Germany, has released "Vay Koshte Maro", a song of protest against the current Government.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTrlthfbcHQ[/youtube]

0725 GMT: Parliament v. President. The influential member of Parliament, Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, has emphasised that "not all hardliners accepted the elimination of reformists" in the post-election conflict.

0720 GMT: The Saharkhiz Criticism. Persian2English has now posted the first part of journalist Isa Saharkhiz's statement in court --- featured on EA last week --- with its direct criticism of the Supreme Leader.

0715 GMT: No, No, Talk about the War. Press TV keeps up the Iranian state line, "Shameful Defeats Awaits US in 3rd War". The article features the Sunday comments of Brigadier General Masoud Jayazeri, “The United States, which has already suffered two heavy, disgraceful defeats against Hezbollah and Hamas in the region, can start a new war with a third country to endure another defeat.”

0710 GMT: So what is happening inside Iran? Credit to two "Western" outlets for stories that defy the trend of Nukes and War.

The Los Angeles Times posts a summary of "New Series of Attacks on Members of the Bahai Faith in Iran".

The Guardian of London picks up on the story --- reported in our updates yesterday --- of the disappearance of prominent human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei and the arrest of his wife and brother-in-law. Mostafaei represents Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman whose death sentence for adultery has provoked international criticism of Tehran.

0630 GMT: The lead stories in the media this morning on Iran are far from what is happening inside Tehran.

From the Iranian Government's point of view, the weekend's meeting between the Turkish, Brazilian, and Iranian Foreign Ministers is the platform to focus attention on the uranium enrichment issue. Paralleling the rhetoric denouncing the West, notably in the speeches of President Ahmadinejad, the possibility of renewed discussions --- raised by Iran's statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency today --- comes to the fore. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, says, "The Tehran nuclear declaration on a possible nuclear fuel swap is a good base for the sides to build confidence. Iran has prepared its response to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Vienna group which will be sent within the next two or three days."

And from the US --- not from the Government, I hasten to add, but from the chattering classes --- the topic is not resolution but war. CNN's Sunday interview with Michael Hayden, the head of the CIA in the Bush Administration, is the latest pretext to take speculation from someone far from the centre of developments and turn into a Most Important Prediction.

Indeed, there is a convenient symmetry here. On one side, those who desire regime change in Iran can do so with little reference to politics, society, religion, or any other matter inside the country --- it's always and only the spectral "imminent threat" that is featured. On the other, those who support the Iranian Government --- irrespective of what it does inside the country --- can avoid troubling themselves with human rights, justice, and legitimacy. Instead, they can raise the speculative and unsupported to a clear-and-present danger and argue that the avoidance of a US-Iran war takes priority.

UPDATED Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.

UPDATE 26 July: Today's surprise winner of the War Drum? It's the BBC....

Paul Reynolds, in a special analysis "Iran Sanctions: Last Throw of Diplomatic Dice?", falls for the CNN interview with former Bush Administration official Michael Hayden (see Update 25 July) as Very Important to proclaim, "Already, the distant drum beats heralding war talk are beginning to sound."



UPDATE 25 July: Here We Go Again....

CNN, apparently short of significant news coverage, whipped up the war talk in its Sunday interview with General Michael Hayden, head of the National Security Agency and then Central Intelligence Agency during the George W. Bush Administration:

CNN'S CANDY CROWLEY: When you left the CIA about two years ago, you said the two biggest problems facing your successor would be the Iranian nuke program and the drug smuggling and the violence from Mexico. Would you change either one of those?

HAYDEN: No, no. To be accurate, counterterrorism was job one. Beyond counterterrorism, I would put counterproliferation as job two. And within counterproliferation, it is inarguably Iran....

CROWLEY: Do you think, though, there is any answer?

I mean, Iran doesn't seem to be paying much attention to the sanctions. As far as we know, they are still trying to get nuclear capability. If it should, is there any alternative to taking out their facilities?

HAYDEN: It seems inexorable, doesn't it?

We engage. They continue to move forward. We vote for sanctions. They continue to move forward. We try to deter, to dissuade. They continue to move forward.

My personal view is that Iran, left to its own devices, will get itself to that step right below a nuclear weapon, that permanent breakout stage, so the needle isn't quite in the red for the international community. And, frankly, that will be as destabilizing as their actually having a weapon.

When I was in government, what we would used to mystically call "the kinetic option" was way down on our list. In my personal thinking -- in my personal thinking; I need to emphasize that -- I have begun to consider that that may not be the worst of all possible outcomes.

Look, Michael Hayden is no more than a hanger-on in Washington these days, his main function to show up in places like The Wall Street Journal to give a weak defence of the Bush Administration's dubious and possibly illegal programmes in "enhanced interrogation", rendition, and surveillance. He has next to no influence in any discussions over Iran policy.

CNN, however, will big this up as a definite sign of possible War, War, War. And The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post and Associated Press are already helping by running this as featured news.

UPDATE 24 July: Oh, this should be helpful....

Republicans in the US House of Representatives, the lower body of Congress, have introduced Resolution 1553 supporting Israel's recourse to "all means necessary" against Iran "including the use of military force".

Nearly a third of the 178 House Republicans have signed the resolution, publicly promoted by its lead sponsor, Louie Gohmert of months.

Iran's Press TV is already circulating and exaggerating the news, "House OK's Possible Israeli Raid on Iran".

UPDATE 1750 GMT: Unfortunate Juxtaposition of the Day....

Sometimes you just have to smile. The National Iranian American Council posts a concise opinion piece, "War is Bad for Democracy", knocking back thoughts of military action against Iran because of "the damage it would do to the indigenous democracy movement".

The Google Ad at the bottom of the page?




It appears that some journalists have missed our coverage this week --- in a dissection of Joe Klein's lightly-sourced hyperbole and in Marc Lynch's comment on the danger of hyperbole becoming received wisdom --- over the hyping of Israeli military action against Tehran.

First, Bret Stephens put out the question, "Why Hasn't Israel Bombed Iran (Yet)?" and then offered four "theories", all of which were void of any information on Israel's current planning and strategy.

Fair enough. Mr Stephens is a staunch defender of Israel over all, and the real point of his piece was to bump any Obama official who might be reading into support of military action:

There is now talk that the Obama administration may be reconsidering its military options toward Iran. Let's hope so. Israel may ultimately be willing to attack Iran once it reckons that it has run out of other options, as it did prior to the Six Day War. But its tactical margin for error will be slim, particularly since an effective strike will require days not hours. And the political risks it runs will be monumental. As Mr. Doran notes, in 1956 it could at least count on the diplomatic support of two members of the U.N. Security Council. Today, the U.S. is its last significant friend.

Then, however, The Atlantic Wire --- positioning itself as the mediator of all stories Great and Good and Very Important --- paid tribute (ripped off?) Stephens by turning his question into a Fact, "4 Reasons Israel Hasn't Bombed Iran". Sweet irony: the summary actually had no Facts, only a series of other speculations from other writers.

Then the paradox: Marc Lynch, who had carried out valuable service with his knock-down of the war chatter, did his part to validate the war chatter, "Atlantic Wire: 4 reasons Israel hasn't bombed Iran, rounding up yesterday's debate".

No, this is not a debate. It's a media cluster --- the Daily Show has a Not-Suitable-for-Work term for it --- that feeds off each other's hopes, fears, and thoughts off the top of the head.

And sometimes I fear that this cluster --- pretty much closed off to outside consideration and, yes, inconvenient Facts --- will carry on oblivious to any consequences.