Israel-Palestine: What the US Should Do Now on Settlements (Walt)

If I were President Obama (and you can all be glad I'm not), I'd call my entire Middle East team into the Oval office for a little chat. Here's what I'd say:

"I made a promise to the American people, and to the world, that we would achieve 'two states for two peoples' during my first term. When I was in Cairo more than a year ago, I said this goal was in "America's interest, Israel's interest, the Palestinians' interest, and the world's interest." And I meant it. I trusted each of you to help me bring that goal about, and I've taken your advice for over twenty months. Let me be clear: it isn't working, and I'm not one who is satisfied with failure. Nor am I going to reward it. So I am telling each of you now: If you can't help me get this deal done within one year, I'm going to fire every one of you and get some new faces in here."

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Palestine Interview: Hamas' Khaled Meshaal on the "Resistance Bloc" and the New Middle East (Narwani)

Earlier this month, Sharmine Narwani interviewed Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Damascus for the Huffington Post. In Part 1 of the interview, he addressed the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Hamas' perspective on the direct talks. Here he speaks about broader regional issues, including the emergence of a "Resistance Bloc", the New Middle East, and relations with Iran, the Ground Zero mosque, and, on a more personal note, his relationship with his father:

SN: The "Resistance Bloc" in the Middle East - Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas - how did it come about?

KM: The forming of this bloc is a natural consequence of events in the region - firstly, the presence of Israel and its atrocities against the region, and then the failure of the negotiation process to achieve something substantial. Even when the Arabs compromised and agreed to the borders of 1967, they did not receive a serious response from Israel. Thus, we have this stalemated situation where Israel has a free hand to do whatever it wants - with the world community turning a blind eye - which leads to the response in the street and to the forming of the bloc you have mentioned.

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Deadline Approaches for Settlements: What Are the Options for Palestinians?

So, why can't Mahmoud Abbas leave the talks and go home if he cannot guarantee another full freeze? Washington Post gives the answer to this question:

In the end the Palestinian president would be foolish to end the talks. In so doing, he would leave Israel free to proceed with unchecked settlement construction while postponing Palestinian statehood indefinitely. He would also place himself at greater domestic political risk, since the end of negotiations would empower Palestinian militants.

If he stays in the talks, Mr. Abbas can oblige Mr. Netanyahu to spell out his specific terms for Palestinian statehood, something he has yet to do. If they resemble those offered by previous Israeli governments, it might be possible to move relatively quickly toward an accord on borders and security. 

In other words, sitting at the table for Abbas is better than nothing. Let's see what Israelis are going to bring to it.

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Israel-Syria Analysis: The Importance of Damascus for the Israeli-Palestinian Talks

Considering efforts to bring Syrians and Israelis to the negotiation table, we said on 17 September:

To strengthen Ramallah’s hand at the negotiation table and to give a regional dimension for the Israel-Palestine talks, the Obama Administration is bringing in another strategy: Israeli-Syrian talks. These would serve both as a back-up measure to prevent radicalism and as an implicit pressure on both the Palestinians and Israelis. 

We then asked whether this wass a "waste of time", given both Damascus' ties with Tehran and the US intention to use Syrian-Israeli talks as a tool for success of the Israeli-Palestinian discussions. We left the door open for a regional settlement as long as Damascus can get deal beyond return of the Golan Heights to Syra.

Following US special envoy George Mitchell's visit to Damascus on 16 September, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will see Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem in New York on Monday. "A comprehensive peace has to include the Syria-Israel track. It’s absolutely essential that Syria be part of this process," Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeff Feltman told reporters.

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UN Commission: Israel Broke International Laws in Flotilla Raid (BBC)

The BBC reports:

Israel's military broke international laws during a raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla, a UN Human Rights Council investigation says.

Its report said the action by commandos, which left nine dead, was "disproportionate" and "betrayed an unacceptable level of brutality".

It said there was clear evidence to support prosecutions against Israel for "wilful killing".

Israel rejected the report as "biased" and "one-sided."

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Palestine Analysis: Abbas to Accept Israel's Build-Up of Settlements?

Speaking to US Jewish leaders in a phone call Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He also called the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas a real partner for peace. 

Two days later, at a dinner in New York, the "partner of peace" would not say that a renewal of settlement construction in the West Bank would end peace talks. Abbas said:  "I can't say I will leave the negotiations, but it will be very difficult to continue if Netanyahu will announce that he will start building."

Therefore, if Abbas's demand to the Obama Administration to extend the freeze by three months, during which time the issue of borders would be discussions, cannot find traction this week, then Netanyahu's plan of a continued build-up of large settlements could be the de facto position until final borders are drawn up by both sides. 

As we said on 15 September, "It is unlikely, however, that Damocles' sword will be held over West Jerusalem. Instead, as we pass 26 September without resolution, the Palestinians are likely to face this choice: compromise on the settlements or be labelled as 'rejectionists', if not by Obama's representatives then by the Israelis with whom they are supposed to find an agreement."

Israel-Palestine Memories: Prime Minister Olmert's 2008 Offer and the Palestinian Response

On Sunday, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that if the current Israel-Palestine talks are to succeed, the agreement would have to resemble the plan the Palestinians turned down two years ago in negotiations.

Israel offered the Palestinians close to 94 percent of the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine and holy sites governed jointly by Israel, the Palestinians, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the US. In addition, less than 20,000 refugees would have returned Israel and 100,000 Palestinians would be given US citizenship.

Olmert blamed the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas for no resolution: "There is no choice but to say that this agreement was not achieved when that was possible because the Palestinian side was not prepared to make the extra step that I believe we made."

The Palestinians have a different recollection. In March 2010, their top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat told an audience at the University of Birmingham that a counter-proposal had been offered to Olmert and nothing had been received in return.

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Israel Analysis: Freezing Out Foreign Minister Lieberman?

Talking to supporters of his party Israel Beiteinu in early September, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman explained why the results from direct Israel-Palestine talks were "unachievable": 

It must be understood that signing a comprehensive agreement in which both sides agree to end the conflict and end all of their claims and recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people is a goal that is not achievable in the next year or in the next generation, so any historic compromises or painful concessions won’t help.

On Sunday, Lieberman brought his "wise" solution as an alternative to this failure. He said that the main principle for negotiations must not be "land for peace" but "an exchange of territories and populations", ruling out the Palestinian side's insistence on basing the peace talks on the pre-1967 borders. This would guarantee the status of settlements under the Israeli flag and save Israel's "Jewish" identity. 

Not all have been converted by the Foreign Minister's wisdom, however.

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Palestine: Life in Hamas's Gaza (Prothero)

If the humiliation of chronic unemployment, or being paid to not work, isn’t enough, with a widespread travel ban on Palestinians except in rare medical cases requiring Israeli help, no one ever gets to leave this tiny patch of sand along the sea. And with meager wages supplemented by humanitarian rations, people aren’t starving. Instead they seem to be losing any sense of hope and increasingly, according to social workers, smugglers and even the police, turning in massive numbers to cheap narcotic tablets smuggled through tunnels from Egypt. A sense of lethargy and hopelessness now pervades almost every aspect of life here.

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Middle East Special Analysis: The Israel-Syria-Palestine Triangle

Washington’s “Wise” Plan?

As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”

What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".  

As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."

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