US, Middle East, & Iran Feature: RIP, Dennis Ross

Benjamin Netanyahu & Dennis RossBluntly summarised, Ross's approach was to bully a perceived adversary into negotiations. Israel would only face meaningful talks once the Palestinian Authority had accepted a series of demands; the "international community" would only move to agreement with Iran once Tehran had made the substantial concessions.

It was an approach guaranteed to fail, and it did. Mitchell persisted but finally gave up. There is no foreseeable prospect of an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which explains why the Palestinians made their move in September for recognition by the United Nations. The window for a resolution with Iran on the nuclear issue closed in November 2009 --- to be fair to Ross, more because of internal politics in Tehran than his politics within the Obama Administration --- and it has never re-opened. With that closure, Ross' vision --- sanctions, more sanctions, and the threat of even tougher action to force Iran to its knees has triumphed over the following two years.

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Middle East Analysis: Dennis Ross & the Battle Within the Obama Administration

Israeli PM Netanyahu and Dennis RossIn February 2009, we headlined, "Treading Softly on Iran: Dennis Ross Sneaks into the Administration". Our analysis at the time:

He has been brought [into the Administration] with a remit so broad that it threatens to be vague. Now he is not focused on Iran but overlapping with both [Afghanistan-Pakistan envoy Richard] Holbrooke and [Israel-Palestine envoy George] Mitchell. There may be some State Department master-plan setting out how Ross, a forceful personality, will work with those two envoys --- equally forceful personalities --- and how he and his staff will in turn work with permanent State Department desks overseeing the Middle Eastern, Persian Gulf, and Southwest Asian regions.

More than two years later, Holbrooke is dead and Mitchell has resigned in frustration. But Ross is still very much present in the National Security Council. And the operative term is not "work with" other personalities and other departments but "work against".

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Syria, Libya, Palestine (and Beyond) LiveBlog: While Obama Speaks....

2100 GMT: Claimed video of a demonstration in Homs tonight, "The people want to topple the regime":

2040 GMT: A day after balking at an agreement to transfer power, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said --- through a spokesman --- that he will sign the arrangement.

Spokesman Ahmed al-Sufi said Saleh will accept Sunday during the celebration of Yemen National Day at the Presidential Palace in Sanaa. Al-Sufi said Abdul-Latif al-Zayyani, the head of the Gulf Co-operation Council, would return to Yemen for the event.

The GCC, which brokered the agreement, said in a statement that its foreign ministers would meet in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday and al-Zayyani would attend.

The Yemeni opposition dismissed Saleh’s promise to sign.

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The Latest from Iran (27 January): No Money for the Babies

2145 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. We started with babies this morning, we'll close with very adult behaviour. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has attacked former President Hashemi Rafsanjani once again, saying religious seditionists and silent elites must be dealt with. Moslehi declared that he had documents of the 2009 sedition to back up his allegations.

2140 GMT: Parliament v. President. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has invited President Ahmadinejad to a public discussion about his letter to MPs warning that Parliament, the judiciary, and the Expediency Council were acting wrongly to oppose his plans on the budget and the Central Bank.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Another Dennis Ross Mission to West Jerusalem

On Thursday, Dennis Ross, a senior member of the US National Security Council, and David Hale, deputy to President Obama's envoy George Mitchell, arrived in West Jerusalem. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel's security needs and the maintenance of the Israel Defense Forces' qualitative advantage during negotiations with the Palestinians would be discussed with the American diplomats. 

Back in the US, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that Washington's position on Israeli settlements in the West Bank has not changed; however, the US is not going to support the Palestinian proposal for international condemnation of Israel's "illegal" activities in the "occupied" lands.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Washington Blocks the UN and the Palestinians

On Friday, the UN General Assembly voted to hold a summit for the 10th anniversary of the World Conference Against Racism, also known as the Durban Conference.

In 2001, the declaration from Durban singled out Israel for criticism, likening Zionism to racism and referring to "the plight of the Palestinians." In April 2009, there was a follow-up conference, but the US, Canada, Israel, New Zealand, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and Australia did not participate. The conference report had no language accusing Israel of racism and no reference to the recent Gaza War. 

Washington continues its opposition to any gathering. US Ambassador Susan Rice said Washington voted against Friday's resolution "because the Durban declaration process has included ugly displays of intolerance and anti-Semitism, and we do not want to see that commemorated".

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Six Weeks of Indirect Talks But No Clear US Position

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told US special envoy George Mitchell,said that he was "prepared to discuss all of the fundamental issues" necessary for resuming negotiations with Palestinians and reaching a peace agreement.

Netanyahu, with no preconditions such as a settlement freeze, is ready to sit and discuss matters freely. According to some sources, the issues of refugees (with reference to the demand to recognize the "Jewish" character of the State of Israel), security issues, and borders are expected to be on the table. 

The Palestinian side is not in the same position. It has received no "guarantees" from the Obama Administration over recognition of a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders --- whether that is through the UN, from Washington, or through talks --- and a "complete halt" to Israeli construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Washington's "Fresh" Attempt at Talks Puts Netanyahu on the Spot

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a challenge. The Obama Administration wants a "fresh" start for indirect talks from both sides. Netanyahu is expected to put forth an offer, especially on borders between Israel and a Palestinian state. The US hopes that a consensus on those borders will bring the solution of other core issues such as security, Jerusalem, water, and settlements.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Obama Has Failed --- It's Back to Indirect Talks

On Friday, Arab League ministers endorsed the call of Palestinian Authority leader Mamoud Abbas' call to end direct talks unless Israel agrees to another freeze on West Bank settlements. 

The Arab ministers said they would meet again in a month to study alternatives and decide on next steps, giving the Obama Administration more time to broker a compromise on renewal of the talks. The Arab delegates want to see a clear path forward after the November Congressional elections in the US.

The Palestinian Authority has still not made a commitment, despite Mahmoud Abbas' declaration that he is ready to leave the negotiating table; given the Arab League outcome, the PA may not do so until November. However, the position seems clear. Unless Israel agrees to a two-month extension on the settlement freeze, we are back to indirect talks.

For the moment, the Arab representatives have saved Barack Obama's face. But Washington, rather than just sending out another set of envoys, needs to spend some time in serious consideration of major steps. Abbas told Arab leaders that he may seek US recognition for a Palestinian state if Israel does not offer a response on settlements. Alternatively, according to sources close to the PA leadership, Abbas told U.S. envoy George Mitchell that he will resign if there is no movement.

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Israel-Palestine: Abbas to Mitchell "If Settlement Expansion Continues, I Resign" (Eldar)

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas informed U.S. envoy George Mitchell last week that the renewal of settlement construction will not only bring about the collapse of peace talks but it will also induce his resignation from the post of Palestinian Authority president.

According to Palestinian sources close to the PA leadership, Abbas told Mitchell of his plans during their last meeting together.

Abbas's resignation means the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, since it was agreed inside the government that no one from the leadership of Fatah will step up to replace Abbas as president, and no new elections will be held.

In a conversation he held last week in his plane with a reporter, Abbas said "this is the last time that you will fly with me while I am president of the PA."

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