Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Playing the Iran Card

2040 GMT: Defiance and celebration --- Protesters in Ma'arrat al Nouman chant "Screw Iran and Screw Russia!"

2032 GMT: This video (cell phone, poor quality) claims to show tanks storming Sarmeen Idlib (in the hotspot between Idlib city and Saraqeb) amongst gunfire:

2022 GMT: Evening protests in Kafersita, Hama:

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Turkey Analysis: As 10,000 Soldiers Pursue Kurds Inside Iraq, What Does "Big Revenge" Mean?

The curiosity of Prime Minister Erdogan's statement was in its emphasis. Instead of a focus on operations against the Kurdish Communities’ Union (KCK), with the arrest of hundreds of Kurdish politicians, or ongoing military action against PKK militants, Erdogan implicitly blamed “external powers” for using PKK.

Doing so, he was trying to divert the public’s attention from domestic political debates. But this is also a move in foreign policy: according to many experts, columnists, and academics in Turkey, Erdogan is targeting Iran and Syria.

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When Israel & Turkey Co-operated: West Jerusalem Asks Ankara for Help with Hamas

In a week when Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman threatened to punish Turkey by supporting the Kurdish insurgency PKK, this document, released by WikiLeaks, is a useful reminder of public illusions and private politics --- even as Israel criticised Ankara's acceptance of Hamas as a legitimate political force, it was trying to take advantage of Turkey's relationship with the Gazan leadership.

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Turkey-Israel Feature: Why There is a Downward Spiral in Relations

On Friday, the relationship between Israel and Turkey deteriorated further: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would provide an armed escort for a new flotilla to break the blockade on Gaza, while Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman proposed measures from a warning against travel to or through Turkey to support of the Kurdish insurgency PKK.

So what does the tension demonstrate? For all the differences between Israel and Turkey: it shows the two powers can agree on one thing --- playing to domestic audiences with declaration of their foreign policy interests. 

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Start of a "National Dialogue"

2110 GMT: A demonstration today in Kafranbel in northwest Syria:

2105 GMT: Another clip of today's pro-reform protests in Morocco, this time from the capital Rabat:

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Turkey Analysis: The Shortcomings of Prime Minister Erdogan's "The Best Defence is a Good Offence"

UPDATE 22 APRIL: The Supreme Election Board, after eight hours of discussions, has reinstated the candidacy of seven independent candidates.

The Baord had vetoed 12 mostly Kurdish applicants, including two current MPs.

Six Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) candidates and one independent were re-instated. There was no word about the other five who had been blocked.

Protests broke out in several cities across Turkey, with at least one person shot and killed by police on Wednesday, after the board's initial decision.
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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Strasbourg, France last week, taking questions from the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly. When French MP Muriel Marland-Militello, whose grandfather was an Armenian born in Istanbul and escaped Turkey in 1915, asked how he would guarantee freedoms for religious minorities in Turkey, Erdogan said, “I believe this friend is French. She is also 'French” to Turkey', which is a saying in Turkish meaning that 'you don’t know anything about it'."

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Turkey Special: A Hard Look at Ankara's Policy of "Romantic Realism"

Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu wrote for The Guardian of London about his approach to foreign policy.

The context, Davutoglu explained, was a “natural” history, “flowing” from “abnormalities”  --- such as the division of peoples of the region by colonialism and Cold War --- to democracies spreading in the Middle East. In the course of time, he says, an ordinary Turk or Arab can change the history but you are bound to lose if you resist the “momentum of the history” which is giving the “dignity” of this region back.

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Latest from Turkey: The Insurgent PKK, Relations with Russia, the New Middle East, and Israel

Latest developments in Turkey....

What Next with the PKK?

The Kurdish separatist group, PKK, ended its unilateral truce on 28 February. Last week, its life-long-imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan said: “I will make the evaluation in the coming days in March. If something positive happens, the current state of inaction will continue until elections. If not, I am out, I will fade from the scene. My health situation is already not good enough to carry on this work.”

On the following day, three PKK guerillas/terrorists were killed by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in Sirnak. On Friday, TSK clashed with PKK members in Bingol --- four PKK members and two village guards were killed. Was this a reaction to Ocalan by PKK ’s senior officials or an organized response by PKK with Ocalan’s permission before the Turkish New Year (Newroz)?

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Turkey's Foreign Minister on Egypt: "We Took the Most Active and Clearest Position"

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attended an international conference on security on Saturday. In his meeting with U.S. Foreign Secretary Hillary Clinton, Davutoglu said: "Chances for democracy in the Middle East have been missed twice in the past 20 years. We cannot let this happen once again."

For Davutoglu, Turkey took "the most active and clearest position in Egypt".

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Turkey Analysis: The "Extraordinary" Davutoglu and Ankara's New Rules For Foreign Affairs (Traub)

In a world that the U.S. no longer dominates as it once did, President Barack Obama has sought to forge strong relations with rising powers like India and Brazil. Turkey, however, is the one rising power that is located in the danger zone of the Middle East; it’s no coincidence that Obama chose to include Turkey in his first overseas trip and spoke glowingly of the “model partnership” between the two countries. This fits perfectly with Turkey’s ambition to be a global as well as a regional player.

And yet, despite all the mutual interests, and all of Davutoglu’s energy and innovation, something has gone very wrong over the last year. The Turks, led by Davutoglu, have embarked on diplomatic ventures with Israel and Iran, America’s foremost ally and its greatest adversary in the region, that have left officials and political leaders in Washington fuming. Obama administration officials are no longer sure whose side Turkey is on.

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