The Latest from Iran (21 January): It's Nuclear Talks Day!

2035 GMT: Execution Watch (Bahrami Edition). It looks like the Iranian Foreign Ministry may be a bit uncomfortable about the attention to the death sentence imposed on Iranian-Dutch national Zahra Bahrami.

Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast insisted in a press conference today that Bahrami's capital punishment was merited because she was "carrying more than one kilogram (2.2 pounds) of narcotics". He continued, "It is expected from the western countries to appreciate Iran's efforts to combat drug trafficking and even cooperate accordingly. Unfortunately, however, we are witnessing their support for Zahra Bahrami and they have even called for her release."

None of the claimed evidence has been presented against Bahrami publicly, and the Iranian authorities have imprisoned her lawyer, Nasrine Sotoudeh, and refused to allow Dutch officials to visit one of their citizens.

Mehmanparast did not deal with any of these issues although he did make a curious allusion to the dual nationality: "Apart from an Iranian passport, Bahrami holds other passports, including European ones."

Mehmanparast concluded with the warning against further intervention: the West should realise that if the issue of narcotics is not taken seriously, it will directly affect their own youth who will be entrapped by drug traffickers.

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Turkey Analysis: Ankara Seizes Political Leadership over Lebanon

Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" policy continues as Hezbollah and its politcal allies walked away from the Lebanese government last week. On Friday, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was in Ankara, and the visit was followed by a call by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer cooperation. Erdogan said, "There is a need for the parties to act with full responsibility and an understanding that keeps Lebanon’s common interests above any sort of [political] consideration."

Ankara, in the role of "firefighter" on the Lebanese crisis, is pursuing its grand strategy of centring itself in regional discussions not only as a "city planner" but as a global architect.

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Israel Snapshot: Foreign Minister Lieberman "Turkey Will Be the Second Iran"

Unfortunately,recent events in Turkey are reminiscent of Iran before the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei. Like Turkey, Iran was among Israel’s closest allies and the two nations held good relations between both governments and people....

During the last couple of months, the incitement against Israel has reached new heights. During Erdogan’s visit to Lebanon in late November, he said that Turkey will not “remain silent” while Israel will “kill women and children using modern aircraft, tanks... phosphorus munitions and cluster bombs.”

It is important to note that Erdogan’s visit followed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon a month prior. It was difficult for us to perceive any differences in the vitriol of the two. We had to make difficult decisions concerning how to react to this dangerous rhetoric, and it ultimately was decided the best course of action was to exercise restraint and refrain from a response.

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WikiLeaks and Iran: Tehran Politics Collapsed the 2009 Nuclear Talks

With another round of discussions on Iran's nuclear programme soon to take place in Turkey, this document from WikiLeaks is an important snapshot of why the last set of talks between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) failed to make progress in autumn 2009.

At the time and since, the Iranian Government and its defenders have blamed the "West" for duplicity that broke down the talks. EA's interpretation, based on sources, was very different: while there was still ground to cover before a resolution, the primary reason for the suspension of discussions was domestic opposition to President Ahmadinejad's quest for an agreement.

This WikiLeaks document supports our analysis....

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Gaza-Turkey Video: The Freedom Flotilla's Mavi Marmara Returns to Port

On Sunday, hundreds of Turks gathered in Istanbul to welcome the Mavi Marmara, the main ship of the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla, which was attacked by Israeli forces on 31 May, killing nine Turkish passengers:

A day before the repaired ship entered the port of Sarayburnu, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reiterated Ankara's demands that West Jerusalem addressed damaged ties between two countries. He said:

We have the intention of making peace with Israel....Turkish citizens have been killed in international waters, nothing can cover up this truth. We want to both preserve relations and defend our rights. If our friendship with Israel is to continue, the way for it is to apologize and offer compensation.

Israel Analysis: Lieberman's Triple Attack on Turkey, Palestine, & His Own Prime Minister

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman launched a multi-front attack, bombarding Turkey, the Palestinian Authority...and his own Prime Minister.

Talking to Israeli diplomats, Lieberman pressed his belief that the "Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity", saying that they "would find a reason not to sign a peace agreement even if the Israelis had offered Tel Aviv and a retreat to 1947 borders". He called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attempt to achieve a peace agreement "unrealistic" and said the Palestinian Authority, recognized by West Jerusalem since 1994, was an "illegitimate government that doesn't conduct elections".

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Turkey-Israel Analysis: Ankara's "Win-Win" Strategy Does Not Bring Reconciliation...Yet

This is the pursuit of Turkey's "strategic depth", developed by Foreign Minister Davutoglu, through "strategic parts", in this case, a method to solve problems --- eventually --- while maintaining stature after the red alert in relations with West Jerusalem.

But tension cannot be sustained forever. So who gives first? Israel's Netanyahu government or the Erdogan camp in Turkey?

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Turkey Special: FM Davutoglu Sets Out Ankara's Foreign Policy in the "Normalisation of History"

Last week, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was in the US for discussions with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Davutoglu also delivered a speech at Georgetown University about Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" strategy.

In regional politics, within the contexts of the Middle East, Asia, Russia, the European Union, and the fight against terror, Washington needs Turks as much as Ankara needs Washington. This, Davutoglu underlined, is the significance of the "model partnership" set out by President Obama in his address to the Turkish Parliament in April 2009.

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The Latest from Iran (4 December): Behind the Postures

2050 GMT: Signs for a Deal? Signals from both Iran and the US that talks in next Monday and Tuesday on Tehran's nuclear programme can move toward a resolution.

The US media are picking up on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's implicit acknowledgement on Friday that Iran has a right to enrich uranium:

The position of the international community is clear. You have the right to a peaceful nuclear program, but with that right comes a reasonable responsibility, that you follow the treaty you signed and fully address the international community’s concerns about your nuclear activity. We urge you to make that choice … we urge you to restore the confidence of the international community and live up to your international obligations.

(And Iranian media and officials, despite the apparent snub to Clinton by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki only a few seats away, have also taken note. Mottaki said today, “This is a step forward that even the United States [officials] admit to Iran's right to acquire nuclear technology and fuel cycle in their every speech.")

Equally notable, however, is the statement of President Ahmadinejad today. After a week filled with denunciations of the "West", the US, and the UN, Ahmadinejad said:

We are ready to cooperate on a wide range of issues including economic, nuclear, international security and international political issues and the resolution of global problems. This is a unique opportunity...that we hope Western leaders will not waste.

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Turkey, WikiLeaks, and Fire-Fighting: Ankara's Challenge to Israel

So why give fire-fighting assistance to Israel while claiming West Jerusalem is behind the WikiLeaks releases to tarnish Turkey? Erdogan's government wanted to boost its credibility in the eyes of the Turkish public, where there are critical views of the "anti-Israeli" standing of the ruling party. Secondly, Erdogan was trying to get an IOU of gratitude. Finally, Ankara found a way to reiterate its demands, boosting its autonomy in the region while Israel becomes bogged down.

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