Turkey Analysis: Beyond the Car Bombs --- The Kurds, Iraq, and Syria

Last week, two car bombs exploded in Reyhanli in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, killing almost 50 people and injuring more than 100.

While nobody claimed responsibility for the deadly incident, it raised the immediate question of whether Turkey would escalate its intervention in Syria, either alone or with others.

However, that reaction was too narrow and missed the wider context. This is not just about the Syrian conflict but also Turkey's internal politics, specifically its attempt to resolve the sensitive Kurdish issue.

The primary concern for the Erdogan government is the ongoing peace drive with the Kurdish leadership, including imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. So the question is not just whether the events in Reyhanli complicated Turkey's position inside Syria but also whether they threaten these delicate internal negotiations.

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Turkey Audio Feature: Kurdish Fighters Withdraw From Turkey To Iraq

A PKK fighter works on her laptop after arriving in the northern Iraqi city of Dohuk on 14 May 2013, after leaving Turkey as part of a peace drive with Ankara. (Photo: AFP -Safin Hamed)

EA's Scott Lucas spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily on Thursday night, discussing the implications for Turkey after the first group of militants from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) withdrew from southeast Turkey and entered Iraq, at the behest of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan --- who is serving a life sentence in Turkey --- and as part of a peace plan aimed to end three decades of conflict.

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Middle East Today: Turkey --- 1st Kurdish PKK Fighters Move to Iraq

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Turkey: 1st Kurdish Fighters Move to Iraq

In the first withdrawal of fighters of the Kurdish insurgency PKK from Turkey under an ongoing peace process, 13 men and women have arrived in Iraq.

The group was carrying Kalashnikov assault rifles, light machineguns, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

PKK fighters began leaving positions in southeast Turkey on 8 May after a cease-fire declared by their imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is in talks with the Turkish Government.

About 2000 PKK fighters are based in Turkey and will join several thousand comrades in bases in northern Iraq in a process expected to take several months.

Turkey (and Beyond) Summary: PKK Sets Withdrawal Date

Turkey: PKK Announces Withdrawal from Turkey

The Kurdish PKK insurgency has announced it will withdraw thousands of fighters from Turkish soil starting 8 May.

The insurgents will move to northern Iraq as part of the peace process between the Erdogan Government and PKK head Abdullah Ocalan, seeking to end three decades of conflict.. 

The PKK warned the Turkish military against "provocations" which would result in the end of the pledged withdrawal. The organisation said the move would be phased over montha and --- in a declaration likely to be opposed by the Government --- said fighters would keep their weapons.

Turkey Analysis: Kurdish Fighters Begin Withdrawal --- Is Peace on the Way?

Prime Minister ErdoganAs part of peace talks, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has begun withdrawing forces in small groups from northern Turkey near the Black Sea, even though the PKK, backed by Turkish opposition groups, was unable to get Parliamentary oversight of the move.

So does this mean the "peace process" between the Erdogan Government and PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is on its way to resolving the decades-long crisis?

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Turkey Analysis: Erdogan's Risky Game on The Kurdish Issue

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoganOn the surface, there continues to be advance towards the "historic" resolution of the Kurdish issue. Dig a bit deeper, however, and you wll hit a major block: the ambitions of a Prime Minister trying to maintain and increase his power at every step of the process.

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Turkey (and Beyond) Live: A Peace Deal with the PKK?

Prime Minister Erdogan1200 GMT:Palestine. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has suspended its operations in the Gaza Strip after demonstrators stormed its headquarters after a number of aid cutbacks caused the agency to withhold some cash handouts earlier this week.

Although cash disbursements will be limited, the UNRWA said that food distribution will continue as normal once guarantees are given that their operations can continue “unhindered.”

1132 GMT:Iraq. A bomb attack in the western Baghdad neighbourhood of Abu Ghraib has killed three soldiers while another bomb exploded near a vegetable stand in the city of Hillah (60 miles, 90 kilometres south of Baghdad) killing three civilians and wounding 15 bystanders.

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Turkey Analysis: Will the Kurdish Peace Offer Survive the Next Steps?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Abdullah OcalanLast week Abdullah Ocalan, the head of the Kurdish insurgency PKK, wrote a new page on Turkey's Kurdish issue with his New Year's message setting out a path to peace.

The carefully-prepared statement called on both Turks and Kurds to unite in a democratic country, setting out practical measures such as the withdrawal of PKK forces from Turkey.

The PKK‘s leaders approved the directives. The Government’s response was welcoming.

Yet this still may not be enough for a permanent resolution.

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Turkey Feature: PKK Leader Ocalan, Moving Towards Peace, Calls on Fighters to Leave Country (Hurriyet)

PM Erdogan & PKK head Ocalan

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan has called on armed militants to leave Turkish soil in a historic message read out by the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) deputy Pervin Buldan and Sırrı Süreyya Önder in Kurdish and Turkish.

“We are at a point today that guns will be silenced and thoughts will speak. It is time for armed elements to move outside [Turkey’s] borders. This is not an ending but a new beginning,”

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Turkey Special: Kurdish Leader Ocalan "Nearing Deal" with Erdogan

So now we know the basis of reports that there may be a "solution of the Kurdish issue". Speculation, sometimes fed by the Erdogan Government, has risen amid a renewal of meetings with the imprisoned leader of the PKK insurgency, Abdullah Ocalan, on Imrali Island. However, it is with the leak of Ocalan's conversation with pro-Kurdish MPs that speculation has turned into expectation.

What Did Ocalan Say?

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