Turkey-Israel Feature: Why There is a Downward Spiral in Relations

On Friday, the relationship between Israel and Turkey deteriorated further: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would provide an armed escort for a new flotilla to break the blockade on Gaza, while Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman proposed measures from a warning against travel to or through Turkey to support of the Kurdish insurgency PKK.

So what does the tension demonstrate? For all the differences between Israel and Turkey: it shows the two powers can agree on one thing --- playing to domestic audiences with declaration of their foreign policy interests. 

The Erdogan Government has used a negative image of Israel in its formation and the continuation of its "zero-problem policy with neighbours", seeking the support of the Arab world and Iran. To establish itself as a "regional giant", Ankara had poked and provoked the unsettled Israeli Government into hawkish responses, especially from Lieberman and his deputy Danny Ayalon. 

But Turkey faced a problem with the challenge to the Assad regime in Syria. The "zero-problem" policy had to be shelved, not only because of the instability in Damascus but also because of domestic criticism of the Government's approach to the Assad regime. The renewed emphasis on Israel was a "necessary tool", both for the continuation of Turkey's relative autonomy in the region and for the projection todomestic public opinion of a "strong" Turkish foreign policy. The announcement of the UN's Palmer Report, which effectively absolved West Jerusalem of responsibility in the May 2010 attack on the Freedom Flotilla, was the ideal platform for Ankara to present its case of a wounded Turkey defending itself against Israel as the international community walked away.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu set out a five-point approach: downgrading diplomatic ties to the level of 2nd Secretaries, as the Turkish Ambassador to Israel was withdrawn and the Israeli Ambassador to Turkey was sent home; suspending all military coopearation; pursuing security of navigation in the Eastern Mediterranean; starting enquiries at the United Nations and International Court of Justice over the legitimacy of Israel's Gaza blockade; and lending full support to the victims of the Freedom Flotilla incident as they pursued legal efforts to seek their rights.

In response, Israeli's Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon likened Turkey to Iran, as an "Islamic Republic" due to its "close relations with Hamas" and Tehran. Undaunted, Erdogan reiterated Ankara's conditions to normalise its relations with West Jerusalem: apology and compensation for the nine Turkish citizens slain on the Freedom Flotilla and the lifting of the blockade on Gaza. Erdogan said that Israel was not going to be "comfortable" as it used to be in the East Mediterranean, and he officially cut the bilateral military relations which had been suspended in practice for two years.

Erdogan's last two salvos were Ankara's plans to go to the International Court of Justice to complain about Israel's blockade and the military escort of ships bound for Gaza. This was also a message for the Arab World: Erdogan is due to sign a military and economic alliance with Egypt in Cairo on Monday.

Israel's Lieberman was furious and declared that Turkey had to be punished severely. This included dialogue with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and support to the Armenian lobbies in their efforts to urge the U.S. Congress to recognise the so-called "Armenian genocide". Ankara has again succeeded in getting West Jerusalem to appear as the aggressor, even as the Prime Minister's Office announced that its policy is to prevent worsening ties with Turkey. 

So the public manoevures continue. But there are important reminders of the limits to conflict. Despite the tension on the political level, Israel increased its trade by 26% in the first half of 2011, reaching $2 billion. Israeli exports increased by 39% while its imports rose 16%. On Monday, Turkey's Minister of Industry and Trade put emphasis on "regional peace" and "stability" and highlighted "Turkey's close friendship and nested nature" with the Jewish people of Israeli. The Minister said that he was on the same wavelength as the Bank of Israel Governor, Stanley Fischer, who had warned that the consequences of not having trade relations with Turkey would be expensive for Israel.

And, whatever the public position between Ankara and West Jeruslaem, this is not a distancing of Ankara from the "West". Last week the Erdogan Government accepted the long-standing request for the hosting of NATO's early warning radar --- indeed, it may have been able to offset public criticism of the move by dangling the image of its tough stance towards Israel. As Prof. Baskin Oran says, "Turkey’s orientation has always been to the West and it will remain so, for many reasons."

This is a game between Israel and Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has understood the game and does not want to take it further, even if some of his Cabinet do not appreciate it with their heated statement. Ankara is using the game to create more room for its regional steps while keeping its economic relations with Israel safe. Any public declaration which unsettles that balance will be pulled back --- watch, for example, Erdogan step aside from the proposal for military escorts for Gaza-bound ships when Washington as well as West Jerusalem voices concern.