Iraq: Beyond the US Occupation/Withdrawal --- The Failure of Power (Myers)

In the week that President Obama made his headline announcement restating that US combat forces would withdraw from Iraq, Iraqi officials have claimed that casualties are at their highest in two years --- a figure disputed by the US military --- and Reuters reveals, "Tired of war, thousands of Iraqis want to go to U.S." Jeremy Scahill undoes some of the rhetoric of withdrawal with the revelation that the number of private contractors supporting the military effort is increasing. And in The New York Times, Stephen Lee Myers reviews another important legacy, in symbolism and in real effects, of the 2003 war and American occupation:

Ikbal Ali, a bureaucrat in a beaded head scarf, accompanied by a phalanx of police officers, quickly found what she was out looking for in the summer swelter: electricity thieves. Six black cables stretched from a power pole to a row of auto-repair shops, siphoning what few hours of power Iraq’s straining system provides.

Video & Analysis: Obama “Iraq Withdrawal” Speech Covers Up Shift on Afghanistan

“Take them all down,” Ms. Ali ordered, sending a worker up in a crane’s bucket to disentangle the connections. A shop owner, Haitham Farhan, responded mockingly, using the words now uttered across Iraq as a curse, “Maku kahraba” ---  “There is no electricity.”

From the beginning of the war more than seven years ago, the state of electricity has been one of the most closely watched benchmarks of Iraq’s progress, and of the American effort to transform a dictatorship into a democracy.

And yet, as the American combat mission — Operation Iraqi Freedom, in the Pentagon’s argot — officially ends this month, Iraq’s government still struggles to provide one of the most basic services.

Ms. Ali’s campaign against electricity theft — a belated bandage on a broken body — makes starkly clear the mixed legacy that America leaves behind as Iraq begins to truly govern itself, for better and worse.

Iraq now has elections, a functioning, if imperfect, army and an oil industry on the cusp of a potential boom. Yet Baghdad, the capital, had five hours of electricity a day in July.

The chronic power shortages are the result of myriad factors, including war, drought and corruption, but ultimately they reflect a dysfunctional government that remains deadlocked and unresponsive to popular will. That has generated disillusionment and dissent, including protests this summer that, while violent in two cases, were a different measure of Iraq’s new freedoms.

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Iran Feature: Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre (Tehran Bureau)

"A Correspondent" writes for Tehran Bureau:

In Iran, where all major opposition newspapers have been closed, where a small public gathering can lead to arrest, there remain few avenues of free speech. Of those few, one of the most accessible is the theater.

During my summer in Tehran, I was invited to see a play, Jazeereh Eshgh (Love Island), written by Hamid Reza Sa'atchi. On the basis of its title, I anticipated a cheesy romance -- even more so when the lights went down and a voice rose up, reminiscent in tone of Michael Buffer, the "Let's get ready to rumble" guy. The protagonist, played by Mahmood Reza Esmaili, loudly asked the crowd to make some noise and I watched the audience of all ages cheer and clap on command. Despite the over-the-top start, I was pleasantly surprised to watch a refreshing play filled with social and political satire of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In one scene, a man stands with arms outstretched, as if reading a newspaper. A woman walks by and asks him what he's doing.

He replies, "What does it look like I'm doing? I'm reading a newspaper."

"So why isn't there anything in your hands?"

"Well, they've all been closed, so I'm forced to read them like this!"

Another scene depicts a woman who asks the main character a question for which the answer is "Two." At first he holds out his index and middle finger, making what could be taken for a peace sign -- in Iran, however, that gesture is the V-for-victory sign, made popular last summer by the Green Movement. The man, realizing his faux pas, says, "You can't even show the number two like that any more!" He offers some comical alternatives, most memorably raising his thumbs, which in Iran means "Up yours."

The main character jokes about the "parasite" or static emitted by the Iranian government that jams popular satellite TV channels such as BBC Persian, VOA, and Farsi 1. He mocks the new hejab culture created by the ingenious way Iranian women sexily wear their head scarves -- hair poofed up at the top and tucked behind their ears -- accompanying a meticulously drawn-on face. He even cracks jokes about Ahmadinejad.

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Iraq and Iran: Has Ayatollah Sistani Challenged the Supreme Leader's Authority? (Nafisi)

Days after Iran's Supreme Leader had released, retracted, and then re-released his "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, issued his own fatwa.



The contrast between the Khamenei and Sistani approaches to velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy) is stark. Now for the political question: was the Sistani pronouncement solely, or at least primarily, fostered by Iraqi developments or is it a response to the Supreme Leader's fatwa?

Rasool Nafisi, who has offered this analysis of Sistani's move, answers, "The fatwa was possibly prompted by the fatwa of Khamenei":

Ayatollah Sistani, in an important fatwa, has clarified his position on velayat faghih. Answering three questions on the function and role of velayat faghih, the ayatollah asserts the general Shiite ulama's
understanding of the function of velayat: it is for "omoor hessbieh" meaning to act as the caretaker of orphans, etc.

But for "omoor aammah" , meaning the general affairs of society including the political sphere, Sistani clearly says that for a vali to rule as such he needs "being accepted and popular (maghbool) by the majority of believers" as one of the main conditions.

In other words, Sistani believes that velayat has no divine origins, and the vali can only act as a ruler if his role is accepted by the majority. This fatwa is in contrast to the new wave of ideological assertions by [Iran's Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi and his cohorts who are hard at work to prove the divine origins of vali, and that he is only "discovered" (kashf) by the people, [for] he is already appointed by the Imam in Occultation.

Sistani's fatwa in a way annuls Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa issued a couple of weeks ago where he clearly said he substitutes [for] the prophet and Imams and people should obey his political statements verbatim. Considering the vast unpopularity of Khamenei, it seems that the condition of "being accepted and popular among the believers" does not quite apply here.

The Latest from Iran (4 August): The President and The Plots

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazham, a female protestor detained during the Ashura demonstrations in December, has been sentenced to 15 years on charges of affiliation to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

1755 GMT: Deportation Update. Mission Free Iran reports that the threat to deport Iranian activist Jamal Saberi from Japan has been lifted.

NEW Iran Breaking: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?
NEW Iran Feature: The Activism of the Women’s Movement (Mouri)
Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s “Fear Factor” (Shahryar)
Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?
The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

1705 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran's inflation rate dropped to 9.1% in the month to 22 July, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Mahmoud Bahmani, has said. The previous month's official rate was 9.4%.

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Esmail Sahabeh, a member of the reformist, Islamic Participation Front, has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison.

Judge Salavati, in charge of the case, was absent during the hearing and handed down the ruling without hearing Sahabeh’s defence.

Sahabeh was arrested during a religious ceremony held in support of political prisoners in October 2009. He was released on bail after two months in prison.

1500 GMT: The Pressure on the Supreme Leader. Geneive Abdo and Arash Aramesh write in The New York Times of "The Widening Rift Among Iran's Clerics". Their provocative conclusion:

Khamenei’s success is the result of his ability to forge alliances with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, some clerics, and traditional conservatives. Although his ties to hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guards may seem stronger today, he still needs the support of the clerical establishment.

Khamenei’s idea of the Islamic Republic is certainly less republican and not necessarily more Islamic. With republican institutions in Tehran weakened and his religious authority challenged in Qum, the future of the Islamic Republic and the fate of velayat-e-faqih remain uncertain.

1450 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The office of the Islamic Women's Sports Federation, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh Hashemi, has been closed, purportedly because of lack of payments from Iran's Olympics Committee.

1410 GMT: An explosion at a petrochemical plant has killed five people at Asalouyeh in southern Iran. The new phase of the plant, which was the largest producer of ammonia in the region, was opened only a week ago in a ceremony with President Ahmadinejad.

1355 GMT: Crime and Punishment. The former head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Mohammad Jafar Behdad, has been sentenced to 7 months for slandering the Larijani brothers and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1350 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News claims that, over the past five years, prices have risen 220%.

1200 GMT: Parliament v. Government. A buffet of challenges from the Majlis....

Hojatoleslam Ali Asghari, the Parliamentary liaison with Strategic Studies Center, criticises "economic stalemate" with "political unrest and radicalism" leading to sanctions and a weakening Majlis leading to "dictatorship".

MP Ali Akbar Oulia declares that the Majlis will not allow the Government to continue its refusal to implement laws, as the delay is harmful to the Iranian people and continues the "chaos" in the country.

Reformist MP Nasrullah Torabi chides the "low language" of Government officials for giving the impression that all Iranian representatives are also "low".

Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz claims that some Iranians are now spending three-quarters of their income for rent.

"Hardline" MP Ezzatollah Youssefian Mola says Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, cannot be trusted as it does not present real data on cases of financial corruption.

1145 GMT: Someone's Looking for Trouble. Ahmadinejad chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, according to Aftab News, has pronounced, "From now on we present the world the way and principles (maktab) of Iran, not of Islam."

So who is making mischief here: Rahim-Mashai or Aftab?

1130 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Member of Parliament Abdollah Kaabi has insisted that sanctions will lead to Iran's self-sufficiency in producing energy.

1125 GMT: The Campaign of the Politician Prisoners (Rafsanjani Annex). A twist in the story of the letter to the Supreme Leader from Hamzeh Karami, a former political prisoner alleging abuse (see 0635 GMT)....

Rah-e-Sabz claims former President Hashemi Rafsanjani took the letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, insisting on delivering it directly to the Supreme Leader.

1122 GMT: OK, I Was Wrong. Just to admit the error in my assertion (0825 GMT) that the "Iran Has 4 S-300 Missiles" would be the big story in the non-Iranian media today.

1109 GMT: The Campaign Against Jannati. More from Mr Verde on the growing movement against the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, fed by his claims that opposition leaders were paid $1 billion for causing trouble last year and offered a further $50 billion by the US and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the regime.... are not just causing problems for him, but are embroiling the Supreme Leader too.

Kalemeh reports that Rasool Montajebnia, a cleric who was close to Ayatollah Khomeini and a founding member of Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party, has written that the Supreme Leader should now step in and address Jannati's accusation with “precision, transparency and decisiveness” so that “everyone could know if these allegations are true or lies”.

Mr Verde notes:

The timing of Jannati's claims, so soon after his reappointment to the Guardian Council, is allowing the reformists to push for the Supreme Leader's intervention. If Jannati is misinformed to such an extent, is lying, or is incapable of thinking straight, then Ayatollah Khamenei has made an enormous mistake by reappointing him to the Council. This wouldmean that Khamenei’s judgment cannot be trusted, which in turn could become a reason for him being unfit to hold the position of Supreme Leader.

And another “minor” point: if Jannati’s recent claims about the payments are false, then how can one accept that the Guardian Council  was correct in “verifying” Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election last year?

Making these claims, Jannati was probably providing excuses for the actions of the regime over the past year. Instead he seems to have provided a good opportunity for attacks on Khamenei. This is another example of remarks or events spiralling out of control.

1105 GMT: Mousavi Watch. On the eve of Journalists Day, Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with editors, reporters, and families of imprisoned journalists. Mousavi said:

Our voice should reach our imprisoned friends who are on hunger strike to gain their very basic rights;,so that they know that the Green Movement, freedom-seekers, and all layers of the nation are supporting them to achieve their rightful demands....

The great number of imprisoned journalists proves the legitimacy of the path that the Green Movement has chosen, because the knowledgeable, wise, and justice-seeking members of the society are in prison due to their protest against the re-eruption of tyranny.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims Iranian security forces have attacked families of political prisoners who are on hunger strike. The families were demonstrating in front of the office of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi (see 0800 GMT).

1035 GMT: The Missing Lawyer. The United Nations' refugee agency has confirmed human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is in Turkey.

Mostafaei, whose clients include Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, has been in hiding after Iranian security forces tried to detain him. His wife and brother-in-law are in prison.

1030 GMT: We have been busy with a separate entry following this morning's story of a possible attack on President Ahmadinejad's motorcade in Hamedan in western Iran.

0845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained teacher Rasoul Baddaghi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0830 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Activism of the Women's Movement".

0825 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Expect this story to take over in non-Iranian press today....

Fars News is claiming that Iran has obtained four S-300 surface-to-air missiles despite Russia's refusal to deliver them to Tehran. The agency claims two came from Belarus and two from an unspecified source.

There has been no immediate official confirmation of the report.

Russia signed a contract in 2007 to sell S-300 missiles to Iran, but has delayed delivery amidst its manoeuvring between Tehran and Washington. The S-300 system can shoot down aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missile warheads at a distance of more than 90 miles and altitudes of about 90,000 feet.

0815 GMT: Mousavi on Oppression in the Name of Islam. Green Voice of Freedom has a full summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech, which we noted yesterday, to veterans of the Iran-Iraq War:

Tyranny and oppression are bad regardless of the circumstances and the time, regardless of whether it is during the Pahlavis [the dynasty of the Shahs] or the Islamic Republic. In fact, oppression under the Islamic Republic is worse because it is done in the name of Islam. Does Islam accept the violation of a human being or obtaining confessions from him by forcing his head down the toilet?

Mousavi's reference to forced confessions is drawn from the experience of Hamzeh Karami, who has written to the Supreme Leader about the abuse in prison (see 0635 GMT).

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to IRNA, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi met with 17 prisoners, some or all of whom are reportedly on hunger strike, and their families on Tuesday.

After hearing the concerns and demands, Doulatabadi reportedly ordered that families be allowed to meet with the detainees, denying that there had been any restrictions.

0645 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Washington Post picks up on the US formal announcement of sanctions against 21 "front companies" for the Iranian Government, including firms in in Belarus, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Luxembourg.

An EA source points us to background on two of the sanctioned German companies: Breyeller Stahl Technology and IFIC Holding AG.

0635 GMT: The Campaign of the Political Prisoners. Yesterday, Josh Shahryar offered a sharp analysis of the impact of revelations by journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained in Evin Prison, and former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, held for months after the election and forced to appear in a show trial.

There's a significant sequel. Hamzeh Karami, the manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has written to the Supreme Leader of his treatment in detention: "They put my head in a dirty toilet 20 times to make me give a false confession. When I screamed "Ya Allah". they said, "We are your God today and will do to you whatever we want."

In the "confession" that he gave at the Tehran mass trial last August, Karami implicated Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, claiming that Hashemi had been involved in fraud and manipulation of the Presidential election.

0615 GMT: We open today with some political theatre from President Ahmadinejad (Drama? Comedy? Farce? You decide.):

We had noted yesterday that the President had criticised current United Nations sanctions, connecting them to the "cup of poison" that Ayatollah Khomeini had to drink when accepting the 1988 UN resolution for a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq War. He had denounced Western media such as the BBC and CNN. But there's more....

According to Raja News, a fervent backer of the Government, Ahmadinejad told his audience at a conference on international broadcasting that the recent "spy swap" between Russia and the US affects Tehran. In the deal between Washington and Moscow, the released Russian agents will pose as nuclear scientists and accuse Iran of plans for a military capability.

Iranian sources claim that official media were so embarrassed that, except for Raja, they censored this section of the speech.

Meanwhile, Pedestrian has posted a clip of Ahmadinejad's speech on Monday to a conference of the Iranian diaspora, offering this interpretation: "The Iranian political libido is going berserk."

Middle East Inside Line: Israel's Lebanon Message, Hezbollah's Response, Livni Challenges Netanyahu

Israel's Message, Hezbollah's Response: In an official statement on Tuesday evening, Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak said:

The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will continue to act firmly and determinedly to protect the residents of Israel and the sovereign borders of Israel. Israel strives for peace and has proven this in 2000 when its forces withdrew to the international border. However, Israel will not tolerate in any way an attack on her soldiers or civilians within her sovereign territory.
In a televised speech on Tuesday night, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah described the Lebanese army as "heroic'"and continued:

This time we stood and watched...but next we will not.

Israel's aggression on Lebanon has never stopped. We will not stand idle...we will cut any hand that attack our army.

Gaza Latest: Why Israel Is Welcoming the UN Enquiry
MENA House: Rockets on Jordan and Israel; Lebanon-Israel Clash — UPDATES

Syrian President Bashar Assad told his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman that Syria would stand behind Lebanon and provide any necessary support, the Syrian state news agency SANA reported. Assad said that the IDF fire "proves once again that Israel is constantly working to destabilize security in Lebanon and the region".

Israeli Opposition Furious over Netanyahu's Cooperation with UN: On Tuesday, Israel's opposition leader Tzipi Livni criticised the Netanyahu Government for accepting a UN inquiry into the raid on the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. She said:, "The IDF has a chief of staff, not a secretary general. I am opposed to a UN inquiry that will involve the IDF, its soldiers and its commanders."

Tension on Turkish-Israeli Front: On July 25, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed that Turkey's newly appointed head of intelligence, Hakan Fidan, could leak secret information shared between the two countries.

Fidan was previously a foreign policy adviser to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and served as Turkey's representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency. He was also present at the nuclear swap deal signed among Turkey, Brazil and Iran.

In response, Israel's envoy Gabby Levy was summoned in Ankara. "We expressed our discomfort and dissatisfaction with Barak's statement," a Turkish foreign ministry official, who declined to be named, told Reuters.

Hamas Praises Hezbollah: Following the friction between Israel and Lebanon which left at least three dead behind, Hamas praised Hezbollah in its confrontation to Israeli forces.

"We pay tribute to the Lebanese national army, which has the full right to counter the repeated Zionist violations of its land and sovereignty," the Hamas statement said.

Erdogan's Name Given to Hamas Leader's Grandson: The 47-year-old Ismail Haniyeh has 11 children and 15 grandchildren. The 15th one was named as Erdogan, in the sense of honouring Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.