The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

2000 GMT: Defense Watch. The Ministers of Defense of Iran and Oman have agreed to "secure the Straits of Hormuz".

1950 GMT: Conspiracy Theory of the Day. Qassem Ravanbaksh, editor of Parto-ye Sokhan (linked to Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi), has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami visited Saudi Arabia before the June 2009 election to get money.

More tangibly, Khatami has been fined $300 over an unspecified speech because of a complaint by Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1945 GMT: Basij Disruption. Basiji paramilitaries have disrupted a memorial service for former member of Parliament, Ismail Tatari, at a Kermanshah mosque because they thought Mehdi Karroubi might be present.

1905 GMT: Taking On the President. Leading MP Darius Ghanbari has joined the criticism of President Ahmadinejad, from across the political spectrum (see 1700), for the conference of the Iranian diaspora. Ghanbari also charged the Government with the wrong strategy as it "chased" elite Iranian and foreign investors.

1900 GMT: Meeting Mousavi. A group of Iranian journalists have posted a report on Rah-e-Sabz of a discussion with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard.

NEW Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s “Fear Factor” (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?
NEW MENA House: “Iranian” Rockets Used in Attacks on Israel and Jordan
Iran: Secularists, Reformists, and “Green Movement or Green Revolution?” (Mohammadi)
Iran Analysis: Hyping the War Chatter — US Military Chief Mike Mullen Speaks
The Latest from Iran (2 August): The Campaign Against Jannati

1853 GMT: No Debate. In the least surprising news of the day, the Obama Administration has rejected President Ahmadinejad's call for a public discussion with Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly in September. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "We have always said that we'd be willing to sit down and discuss Iran's illicit nuclear program, if Iran is serious about doing that. To date, that seriousness has not been there."

1845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The trial of film director Jafar Panahi, arrested in March for criticism of the regime, has been postponed to late September because the judge and prosecutor did not appear in court yesterday.

1840 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As EA readers have already noted, the US has formally imposed sanctions on 21 firms it claims are front companies for the Iranian Government.

The claimed fronts included two Belarus-based banks, two Germany-based investment firms, and mining and engineering companies in Japan, Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, and Iran.

The news has been noticed inside Iran, with Press TV headlining the development.

1700 GMT: The Battle Within. Alef has asked the President to "please observe national dignity", criticising Ahmadinejad's "strange" challenge to Barack Obama to a debate in the US.

1539 GMT: Viewing Iran. Our colleague Lara Setrakian of ABC News has launched a new site, The MidEast Memo. Included in its opening entries are a look at the case of the three Americans still detained a year after hiking into Iranian territory and a review of sanctions and Iran's attempts to get around them.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Fereydoun Khavand, an economist at the University of Paris, claims in an interview that Iran's unemployment rate is at its highest point in six years.

1530 GMT: So You Want a Debate, Mahmoud? An interesting twist in the story of President Ahmadinejad's call on President Obama to hold a public discussion with him in the US....

Five imprisoned journalists, including Isa Saharkhiz, Masoud Bastani, and Mahdi Mahmoudian, have challenged Ahmadinejad to debate them publicly about his Government's performance.

1315 GMT: Ahmadinejad Today. Another speech by the President, this one to Iran's conference on international media: no apparent talk of Zionist assassination plots but lots of condemnation of the United Nations' "anti-Iran" position. Ahmadinejad referring back to the 1980s, said that "certain people who forced Imam Khomeini to 'drink poison'" and accept the UN resolution ending Iran-Iraq war are still active.

The President also gave his audience an intense rhetorical assault upon the Western media.

1255 GMT: Political Prisioner Watch. The death sentence of Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, arrested in post-election protests, has been upheld. According to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the appellate court did not hold a hearing and confirmed the sentence verbatim.

0950 GMT: International Front. Looks like Iran is to going to skip diplomacy --- a move to talks on uranium enrichment with Washington, as well as other countries --- for grandstanding. The Foreign Ministry has followed President Ahmadinejad's call-out of his American colleague for a public discussion: "If US President Barack Obama expresses his readiness, the UN General Assembly [meeting in September] would be a good opportunity for face-to-face transparent talks.”

0920 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s 'Fear Factor'."

0825 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Next Fatwa. His "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration may still be disputed, but Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly moved to his next topic: the danger of music.

On the same day that Iran's legendary singer Mohammad Nouri was buried, Khamenei supposedly replied to a follower: "Although music is halal, promoting and teaching it is not compatible with the highest values of the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic."

Fars said the fatwa was given to a 21-year-old follower who was thinking of starting music lessons. Khamenei answered, "It's better that our dear youth spend their valuable time in learning science and essential and useful skills and fill their time with sport and healthy recreations instead of music."

We are checking if the fatwa is on Khamenei's official website.

0815 GMT: Do You See a Theme Here? Four of Press TV's last eight stories: "Iran trivializes US war threat"; "Iran rejects reports of US war threat"; (my favourite) "Iran prepares 'enemy-crushing' plans"; "Iran warns Israel against new ME war".

0805 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement (A Reaction). Despite the rather limited nature of the Mousavi-Karroubi declaration on the way forward, EA's Ms Zahra is hopeful: "I have the impression that Moussavi is slowly passing over his red lines, his latest statement reads rather democratic, although recurring to religious expressions like a 'Pharaonic' regime."

Ms Zahra also notes former President Mohammad Khatami's most recent speech with its emphasis on the experience of Iran's Constitutional Revolution as a "democratic revolution".

0800 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. Radio Zamaneh summarises yesterday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, headlining criticism of both the Iranian Government and the international pressure on Tehran.

Indeed, Mousavi and Karroubi linked the two, stating, "Uncalculated remarks and decisions of the government have humiliated Iran and led to multilateral sanctions and threats”. They added that the Government was lying about the economic situation, as the sanctions “burden workers, farmers and the impoverished strata of the society, and they could lead to inflation, economic decline and rise in unemployment.”

Mousavi also urged the judiciary to deal with "disturbing news" on political prisoners, and both men said government plans to establish 7000 Basij paramilitary bases across Iran show how the Basij hasbeen transformed into “a military-political party to oppress people, students, dervishes and their civic demands and also to engineer the elections".

Mousavi and Karroubi urged Iranians to “establish social networks to produce truthful content and statistics regarding the situation of the country.”

0740 GMT: Propaganda and "Sedition". Gozaar has a lengthy analysis, with background from the 1990s, of the campaign of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting against Iranian intellectuals and activists through the series Fitna.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a separate feature on the reported statement of the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated last year that Iran is approaching capability for a nuclear weapon.

That is not the only explosive --- sorry for the pun --- declaration coming out of Iran, however. There was a flurry of non-military activity on Monday pointing to further conflict, from the opposition's challenge to the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Jannati, to the revelation of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi of last summer's Tehran "show trial" to criticism of the President from his "conservative" adversaries in Parliament. There was a legal twist, with Ahmadinejad apparently filing a lawsuit against one of his Parliamentary nemeses, Ali Motahari.

Even the attempted deflections from these conflicts merely added a layer of political humour. The Government's attempt to showcase its support from Iranians abroad, through a gathering of 1300 of them in Tehran, was hindered by "hard-line" criticism that the exercise was a waste of money and even included a "CIA associate".

And Ahmadinejad's speech to the conference moved from the significant --- an indication that Iran was ready for direct talks with Washington --- to the diversionary, with his declaration of readiness to speak publicly ("debate") with President Obama in the US in September and his claim that Zionists were trying to assassinate him.

UPDATED Israel-Lebanon: Border Clash Kills At Least 4 Soldiers, Journalist (Al Jazeera)

UPDATE 1525 GMT: Israel Defense Forces have confirmed that Lieutenant Colonel Dov Harari was killed in today's skirmish. A platoon commander, Captain Ezra Lakia, has been seriously wounded.

Al Jazeera reports:

At least three Lebanese soldiers have been killed by Israeli forces during an exchange of rocket and gunfire along the border between the two countries.

A journalist was also killed, and five more Lebanese soldiers wounded in the Israeli shelling on Tuesday.

"The Israelis fired four rockets that fell near a Lebanese army position in the village of Adaisseh and the Lebanese army fired back," a Lebanese security official in the area said.

MENA House: “Iranian” Rockets Used in Attacks on Israel and Jordan

Hezbollah's Al Manar television station said a high-ranking Israeli soldier was also killed in the border incident. The report could not be independently verified, and the Israeli army refused to comment.

Lebanese news sources reported that the journalist killed was Assaf Abou Rahhal, from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

Lebanese witnesses said that Israeli shells are continuing to hit Adaisseh village.

The clashes erupted after Israeli soldiers reportedly attempted to uproot trees on the Lebanese side of the border.

Read rest of article....

Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government's "Fear Factor" (Shahryar)

It started a few weeks ago with journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained in Evin Prison and appearing in court, standing up to the Iranian regime and refusing to sign a confession. Now we have the admission of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi admission, in the wake of other revelations from Iran’s prisons, that the trials of reformists being held in Tehran’s courts were "rehearsed" in advance.

Even before the Iranian Uprising of last year, human rights activists and freed prisoners had raised questions about the validity of trials of activists, reporters, lawyers, students, and political dissidents. So what distinguishes the Saharkhiz and Abtahi developments? The answer lies in a) the timing and b) the importance of individuals making these claims.

When student protests in Iran in the 1990s was put down, part of the regime's success was that the protesters were unable to attract support from elements within the government or the clergy. And even though some student leaders escaped, they were unable to speak openly about their experiences until they left the country and were safe.

This time, the opposition has not only been able to attract high-ranking members of the establishment but has been able to break through the government's "blackout" inside Iran

Isa Saharkhiz worked for the government and the Islamic Revolution from its very early days. However, he now harshly condemns the establishment, going as far as saying that "the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic has proven that he is willing to do anything just to continue a little longer his dictatorial rule over people".

Abtahi’s short statement claiming, "A year ago on such a day we had a trial, we had practiced the day before. What a day it was...." is another nail in the coffin of the Islamic Republic’s campaign to cultivate legitimacy.

Here are two individuals who supported the Islamic Revolution and served this regime for decades. If silenced this time, they would have still assisted the regime’s claims for legitimacy in a small but notable way. (Remember, the regime’s main concern is appearing legitimate to its own population, not to the West.) But both of them have visibly snubbed the regime. Exposing the government’s hypocrisy and criticizing its Supreme Leader are daring attempts at educating the public.

The regime will attempt to a) contain the outcry after both incidents and b) reprimand the two perpetrators, something both Abtahi and Saharkhiz know. So why would two well-established public figures who have worked for the regime and know that they are now risking their lives go ahead? Because the government has lost command of the single most important virtue that keeps every dictatorship in power: fear.

Fear is what kept the people from going into the streets in the wake of the student uprisings of the 1990s. Fear is what kept them from rebelling after the Revolution took away their liberties one by one. Fear is the single most important element in the equation that has worked in the Islamic Republic’s continued existence. Saharkhiz and Abtahi’s revelations further elucidate how much ground the regime has lost since last June.

In another country more than 70 years ago, Franklin D. Roosevelt proclaimed, “The only thing we need to fear is fear itself.” It seems Iranians are beginning to learn that.

Video & Analysis: Obama "Iraq Withdrawal" Speech Covers Up Shift on Afghanistan

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOkayW8BG0U[/youtube]

LATEST Iraq Video and Transcript: President Obama Declares End of US Combat Mission (31 August)

The headline from Barack Obama's speech on Monday to a war veterans' organisation is that he reaffirmed the commitment to "withdrawal" from Iraq: "I made it clear that by Aug. 31, 2010, America’s combat mission in Iraq would end. And that is exactly what we are doing, as promised and on schedule.” The official US troop level will be 50,000, compared to 144,000 in January 2009.

Afghanistan: Deeper into Stalemate? (Randall/Owen)

On the surface, the President's statement is a reassurance that he will stick to his campaign promise to get the US out of its ill-advised "war of choice". A more cynical assessment would be that his Administration is also carrying out a double sleight-of-hand.

One of the manoeuvres is to take attention away from an American military presence which will persist in Iraq. Obama's statement did not deal with the 50,000 troops who stay on in US bases that were constructed not for a short-term conflict but for a long-term "projection of power". And, as Jeremy Scahill has pointed, the number of "private" US contractors and support units in the country is increasing.

Even more importantly and immediately, Obama's re-affirmation on Iraq tucks away a major change in US policy on Afghanistan. The recent commitment of NATO countries to maintain military forces until 2014 --- despite the pullout by some participants such as Holland --- was also an effective, though unstated, move by the US to set aside its mid-2011 "deadline" for withdrawal of combat forces.

The New York Times points to this linkage in its report but gets the Obama strategy all wrong: "President Obama on Monday opened a monthlong drive to mark the end of the combat mission in Iraq and, by extension, to blunt growing public frustration with the war in Afghanistan by arguing that he can also bring that conflict to a conclusion." In fact, "conclusion" in Iraq is being used to mask what is a longer-term, if not open-ended, commitment to Afghanistan.

The President did not ignore Afghanistan and Pakistan in his speech. To the contrary, he repeatedly used his now-standard invocation of "extremists" and "Al Qa'eda" --- even though there are few "Al Qa'eda" in Afghanistan --- who will plot and carry out another attack on the United States. He assured that the US was going on the offensive against the enemy and he restated the declaration --- increasingly thread-bare --- of a civilian front in which good governance would be achieved and corruption would be defeated. But he never moved from this general portrayal to define what this means on the ground, not just next year but beyond.

Some will argue that this was Obama's promise all along, with the campaign statement of trading in Iraq's "bad" war for the "good" fight in Afghanistan and Pakistan against "extremists".

Wrong. This was a President who said, as he stepped into the White House, that US fighting units would be out of both conflicts by 2011. The sleight-of-hand in this speech is that this commitment has now been erased.

Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?

President Ahmadinejad's controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai gets us off to a dramatic start today. Rooz reports that, meeting advisors of the Ministry of Education on Saturday, Rahim-Mashai said that the President had spoken last year of the “possibility of uranium enrichment to 100 percent”. This statement, made during a visit to an exhibition on the achievements of a centre for laser science and technology, referred to the manufacture of a nuclear bomb but “not a single foreign media outlet created an uproar on this.”

Rahim-Mashai continued, “They are not concerned the nuclear bomb and Dr Ahmadinejad used this sentence to test them to see how concerned they really are about Iran producing a nuclear bomb.”

Rahim-Mashai's declaration was noted only by Mehr. Other official outlets such as the Islamic Republic News Agency and Fars carried the general remarks but did not quote the chief of staff or mention the words “enriching uranium by 100 percent”.