US Politics: Scott Lucas with BBC on California Same-Sex Marriage

I spent a few minutes on the BBC World Service this morning discussing the Federal court decision overturning a ban, mandated in a referendum in 2008, on same-sex marriage in California.

(Ahh, the perils of four minutes of "fame" and the BBC's lack of an archive: the programme has now been superseded by today's broadcast.)

The Latest from Iran (5 August): Challenges

1540 GMT: Culture Corner. Human rights activists Parvin Ardalan and Azin Izadifar are among the recipients of the 2010 Hellmann-Hammett Prize. The award, named after playwright Lillian Hellman and crime writer Dashiell Hammett and administered by Human Rights Watch, recognises literary excellence.

1535 GMT: Replacing the Clerics. The names of 12 new Friday Prayer leaders for 12 cities have been published. Each will serve for three years.

Recently 60 Friday Prayer leaders were "retired" by the regime.

NEW Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand “Engagement, Not Conflict”
Iran Feature: Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre (Tehran Bureau)
Iran Special: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?
Iran Feature: The Activism of the Women’s Movement (Mouri)
The Latest from Iran (4 August): The President and The Plots

1530 GMT: Keyhan v. Ahmadinejad. More on the feud between the "hard-line" newspaper Keyhan and the President's office....

Keyhan had alleged that one of the those invited to this week's conference of the Iranian diaspora, Hooshang Amirahmadi of the American Iranian Council, was a "CIA associate". Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, denied Amirahmadi had been approached.

So Keyhan has published the official invitation for Amirahmadi.

1450 GMT: The Torture Information. Khodnevis is claiming, from a source close to the Assembly of Experts, that the head of the Assembly, Hashemi Rafsanjani has sent the cases of 22 people who were allegedly tortured to the Supreme Leader. Acccording to the source, Rafsanjani personally delivered details of five cases, including that of editor and university offical Hamzeh Karami, to Ayatollah Khamenei.

(EA reported on the Karami case yesterday but we did not know of the four other claimed cases.)

According to this source, the 22 complaints included allegations against specific officials. One of these is Hossein Taeb, the former commander of the Basij militia and now head of the Intelligence Bureau of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

1330 GMT: The No-Longer-Missing Lawyer. Human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who has fled arrest in Iran and is now in Turkey (see 0655 and 1205 GMT), has given an interview to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on his recent experiences and his defense of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Ramin Poshtkoohi was arrested in Isfahan on Sunday.

1315 GMT: Twitter and Iran. Dave Siavashi has written a heart-felt, incisive analysis at Iran News Now, "Revisiting what the 'Twitter Revolution' really means".

1310 GMT: Mahmoud's Plans. President Ahmadinejad has declared that "opponents" (in the Green Movement? in Parliament?) are trying to sabotage the introduction of his subsidy reduction plan in October.

1207 GMT: International Front. The Supreme Leader's key advisor on foreign affairs, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, is in Lebanon for talks with Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami.

1209 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims intelligence agents have allegedly called mothers of Evin Prison hunger strikers, threatening them with arrest.

1205 GMT:  A Turkish Foreign Ministry official has told CNN that "extradition to Iran is out of question" for Iranian human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (see 0655 GMT).

1150 GMT: Forget the Grenade, We're Going Into Orbit. Iran's official outlet IRNA highlights a passage from President Ahmadinejad's speech on Thursday in Hamedan, in which he said Tehran would put a man into space by 2017: "The plan is in line with an Iran space agency program to produce and place in orbit a spacecraft at an altitude of more than 35,000 kilometers."

Ahmadinejad has made similar declarations over the last 12 months, including his proclamation of the launch of a rocket which had two turtles, a mouse, and some worms.

1145 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As Iran's Minister of Oil Massoud Mirkazemi visits Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry maintained its careful balancing act on pressure against Tehran: "China's trade with Iran is a normal business exchange, which will not harm the interests of other countries and the international community. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, China has always observed the council's resolutions."

Earlier this week Robert Einhorn, the special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control at the U.S. State Department, declared that China should live up to the sanctions.

0900 GMT: The Campaign against Jannati. Looks like a development in our ongoing watch on the pressure against Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, and thus indirectly on the Supreme Leader. From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in reaction to the false accusations made by Ahmad Jannati [a reference to Jannati's speech last accusing opposition leaders of taking $1 billion, with a promise of another $50 billion, from the US and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the regime], have written a joint letter addressed to senior religious figures and Grand Ayatollahs. They have asked them to step in for the sake of “saving the integrity of Islam and religious figures’ statue” and to confront those who pose as clerics and who, obviously and shamelessly, are damaging the stature of Islam and religious figures.

In this joint letter Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi called on the Grand Ayatollahs to confront Ahmad Jannati and ask him to provide his so-called documents regarding the accusations he made that the Green leaders have received $1 billion from the United States Government via Saudi Arabia to overthrow the establishment....Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi stated that these false accusations made by chairman of the Guardian Council are “the most striking example of shameless...insults”.

0845 GMT: We've posted two features. Scott Lucas analyses an important signal from President Obama on Iran policy, "Engagement, Not Conflict". And a Tehran Bureau correspondent moves politics into another arena, "Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre".

0720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the five-year sentence of Mohammad Davari, editor of Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News.

0655 GMT: The No-Longer-Missing Lawyer. Saeed Kamali Dehghan, writing in The Guardian of London, updates on the case of human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who fled Iran after authorities tried to detain him and arrested his wife and brother-in-law (his wife is still in prison).

Mostafaei is now in Turkey but there is some confusion over his status: Dehghan says the lawyer was arrested on immigration charges on Monday. According to The Guardian, Norwegian and US officials met Mostafaei in prison and offered him asylum, but he was forced by Turkish officials to claim asylum with the UN authorities in Turkey or face extradition.

0630 GMT: Academic Boycott. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has confirmed what EA already knew from experience: new restrictions will be applied on students seeking to study in Britain and the US, since they are hostile and have only "limited relations" with Tehran.

(One beneficiary of the policy is Ireland, an English-speaking country towards which students have been directed for some time.)

0550 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis by Rasool Nafisi of the possible significance for Ayatollah Khamenei of a fatwa by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shia cleric in Iraq, which says clerical authority must come from the affirmation of the people.

Meanwhile, as we look for the political fallout from yesterday's grenade/firecracker attack/non-attack on President Ahmadinejad's motorcade....

Political Prisoner Watch

Activists Zahra Rahnavard and Parvin Fahimi, the mother of the slain demonstrator Sohrab Arabi, have met with the families of the 17 political prisoners on hunger strike.

On Air Soon

Rasa TV, the product of Resaneh Sabze Iran, is now on-line and promising to be on-air in the near-future.

Today's Tough Talk

Brigadier General Mohammad-Hassan Baqeri, a deputy commander of Iran's army, lays it out "Any insane move will bring the US nothing but regret and they will get our final response in the scene of action."

UPDATED Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand "Engagement, Not Conflict"

UPDATE 6 August: Now see our new analysis, "The 4-Step Collapse of Obama’s 'Engagement' Into Confusion".

UPDATE 1345 GMT: Oops, looks like some official in Washington (or London or Paris) is out to cause trouble for Obama. He/she has leaked Iran's official replies, concerning possible uranium enrichment talks, to the "Vienna Group" and to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The lucky reporter, George Jahn of Associated Press, then puts out the "correct" line (as opposed to Obama's "correct" line in the Ignatius article):

As Iran and world powers prepare for new nuclear talks, letters by Tehran's envoys to top international officials and shared with The Associated Press suggest major progress is unlikely, with Tehran combative and unlikely to offer any concessions. Two letters, both written late last month, reflect Iran's apparent determination to continue the nuclear activities that have led to new rounds of U.N., EU, and U.S. sanctions in recent weeks over fears that Tehran might be seeking to develop nuclear arms.

At the same time, world powers preparing to talk to Tehran are unwilling to cede ground on key demands concerning Iran's uranium enrichment activities, dimming prospects that the new negotiations will ease tensions.

Because the quotes from Iran's letters (e.g., ""This kind of [Western] behavior ... is absolutely unacceptable") have been ripped out of context, there is no way of telling if Tehran is in fact being intransigent. You, and presumably President Obama, will just have to accept the word of the "Western diplomat" who went to Jahn.

(A side note for the reporter and Associated Press: if you were really hoping to bring out helpful information for readers to evaluate, instead of providing the conclusions from the diplomat, wouldn't you just print Iran's letters --- or at least paragraphs from the letters --- in full?)

---

David Ignatius of The Washington Post, who is often used by Administration officials to put out the "right" line on US foreign policy, serves as an important messenger today:

President Obama put the issue of negotiating with Iran firmly back on the table Wednesday in an unusual White House session with journalists. His message was that even as U.N. sanctions squeeze Tehran, he is leaving open a "pathway" for a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue.

"It is very important to put before the Iranians a clear set of steps that we would consider sufficient to show that they are not pursuing nuclear weapons," Obama said, adding: "They should know what they can say 'yes' to." As in the past, he left open the possibility that the United States would accept a deal that allows Iran to maintain its civilian nuclear program, so long as Iran provides "confidence-building measures" to verify that it is not building a bomb.

The renewed opening to Iran also included a proposal for talks on Afghanistan. Obama said he favored a "separate track" for discussion of this issue, in which the two sides have a "mutual interest" in fighting the Taliban. He urged that, as part of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's push for "reintegration" with the Taliban, Iran should be included in regional talks about stability. "Iran should be a part of that and could be a constructive partner," he said.

Why is Obama talking engagement with Iran when many analysts are debating the growing risks of a military confrontation? Administration officials cite two factors: First, the sanctions against Iran are beginning to bite, making Tehran potentially more interested in dialogue; and second, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the Iranians have had technical troubles in their nuclear-enrichment program -- which allows more time for diplomacy.

The White House chose an unusual way to send its signals to Tehran. A small group of journalists was invited to a "background session" on Iran policy with "senior National Security Staff." The briefer turned out to be Obama. An official said later that the president plans more of these unscripted, informal meetings.

The only error in these paragraphs is Ignatius's implication that this is a change in approach, at least on the part of the President. Obama has always favoured a dialogue with the Iranian regime: while the nuclear issue was the first one to be addressed --- given its symbolic position, it had to be resolved before other matters could be tackled --- engagement with Tehran would also pay dividends for US policy in the Middle East, including Iraq, and Afghanistan as well as removing a troublesome issue in relations with Russia and China.

This approach has been hindered by another faction in the Administration which has always seen discussions as a preliminary --- since they believe Tehran will not reach agreement --- to tougher measures. It was set back last autumn by the breakdown of the talks with Iran, which reached a high point in Geneva in October, over uranium enrichment. At that point, Obama and those who favoured "engagement" had to turn their attention to the pressure from the US Congress --- and from Israel --- for a get-tough signal with sanctions packages not only the UN but from Washington.

Those sanctions have now been adopted, so the President and other advisors can now turn back to the possibility of dialogue. What's more, they can use the rationale --- which has some support in fact as well in rhetoric --- that Iran has been hurt economically by disinvestment and restrictions on trade, especially in the energy sector. So the impression will be given that the US is bargaining from strength with Iran almost as a supplicant, rather than a equal at the table.

So is there anything new in the report, besides the headline of Obama briefing journalists directly? Yes, but it is in these words, "a proposal for talks on Afghanistan".

The Afghanistan dimension has always been a significant factor pushing the US towards engagement with Iran. Advisors like Richard Holbrooke, Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and his assistant Vali Nasr have always put forth the argument that co-operation with Iran is essential, especially in areas like the west of Afghanistan, if there is to be a lasting political resolution.

That need has only become greater with the escalation of military and political difficulties for the US in Afghanistan. Washington has effectively (though quietly) scrapped the commitment to withdraw combat forces by mid-2011, but other countries such as Holland are pulling out. That only elevates the significance of getting some agreement with some outside actors on the way forward.

This is not to say, of course, that the path will be any easier than it was last year. The conflict inside the Administration has taken its toll, with the top State Department specialist on Iran, John Limbert, leaving. The pressure from the US Congress --- as well as the war chatter --- will not evaporate. And Tehran is unlikely to put out an unclenched fist if it believes the image is one of Iran approaching the US on its knees.

Still, with President Ahmadinejad --- in one of the under-appreciated stories of the week --- putting out the line that Tehran is ready to talk with Washington as well as with other countries on the nuclear issue, it looks like Obama may have signalled, "Welcome back, Mahmoud, where have you been?"

UPDATED Iran Special: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?

UPDATE 5 August: President Ahmadinejad has put out the official line for the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Yesterday, during the cabinet's trip to Hamadan Province, someone threw a firecracker in front of the government motorcade out of joy and excitement. This was not [a] newsworthy [incident], but the enemies spread reports that Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location after surviving an assassination attempt. This is while immediately afterwards I delivered a speech in Hamadan Stadium and in front of thousands of people.”

[Editor's Note: No one to my knowledge ever stated "Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location".]

A stranger declaration from Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi with the "good news" from the incident, "We discovered Israel's sedition in the region," as well as discovering 8,800 antiquities from smugglers.

UPDATE 2000 GMT: Summary of the Day. Islamic Republic News Agency, late to the story of the "greeting" of the President, made up for it with this explanation: "A young boy threw a firecracker at motorcade of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to celebrate his arrival in Hamadan causing embarrassment....Iranian youth during special ceremonies such as New Year festivals or football matches use firecrackers as sign of jubilation."

How can you top that coverage? Possibly by taking it to the international front. From Andy Borowitz:



(Hat tip to Robert Mackey at The Lede)

UPDATE 1655 GMT: Let's Try This Version. And here comes yet another narrative of What Really Happened....

Mehr News (also quoted in Aftab News) says a handmade bomb exploded in Hamedan's Pasteur Street, at a long distance from AN's car, as people were greeting him. No one was injured and there was only smoke from the device. Some suspects were arrested.

UPDATE 1640 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News has just put out a round-up on the grenade/firecracker assassination/celebration incident. I spoke with her throughout the day to try and interpret developments, and she has kindly put out my initial thoughts, which are on the lines of "the significance here is not the physical attack, if that is what this was, but the political aftermath":

Khabar [Online, which broke the story in Iran and is connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani] has been increasingly critical of the government over the past few months. They're more likely to put the incident out than state media.

An attack certainly could be connected to the post-election tension. It could have important political significance given the divisions within the ruling establishment. And in the public eye it makes Ahmedinejad look weak.

UPDATE 1630 GMT: Grenade or Firecracker? An EA correspondent joins the debate, responding to Mr Verde's assessment (1330 GMT) over what happened in Hamedan and what Iran's official media reported:

I think that "narenjak" is best translated, as Associated Press and others did, as grenade. There has been a concerted effort to remove the term from all news items [in Iranian media], Fars being forced to change it from "narenjak" to "tarraqeh", which is the common term for firecracker. So while Verde is correct in stating that narenjak can also mean firecracker, the actual meaning from this morning has been grenade, which is why the state media are so keen on getting rid of it everywhere.

UPDATE 1330 GMT: Khabar Online, which was the first outlet inside Iran to report the explosion, is pulling back on its original claim of a "grenade". Khabar now defers to the statement of the President's office, given to Agence France Presse (see 1024 GMT), that the cause was a firecracker of welcome.

(Mr Verde adds this: The original Khabar item talked about the explosion of “nirenjak-e dasti”, which could mean two things: A) either a “hand grenade” or B) a form of homemade firecracker common in Iran, called "narenjak" --- which in English could mean grenade--- that is thrown against hard surfaces to make a lot of noise during festivals like Chaharshanbeh Souri.)

UPDATE 1140 GMT: An EA correspondent checks in: "Good old Mahmoud isn't having a good day. Youtube footage from today's speech in Hamadan shows him saying that 'England is an island from West Africa'."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDaYAuusXGc[/youtube]

UPDATE 1024 GMT: The regime line is now set. Iranian state outlet Al-Alam, like Fars, is saying that the explosion was actually a firecracker as part of celebrations over the President's arrival, and Ahmadinejad's staff are putting out that story to foreign media such as Agence France Presse.

The problem for this narrative is that the President's office initially told two outlets --- Al-Arabiya and Reuters --- that the incident was an "attack".

 

UPDATE 1015 GMT: Fars News has now recognised the incident, albeit as the explosion of a "homemade firecracker" as crowds welcomed Ahmaidinejad.

UPDATE 0925 GMT: Press TV has broken its silence: "An informed source in Iran's presidential office has rejected as false the reports of grenade attack on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad", denying the claims of "foreign news sources". (There is no reference to Khabar Online, which has carried the story in Iran. The reformist Parleman News is also running Khabar's account, as is the conservative Aftab News.)

Al Arabiya's initial report had claimed "the Iranian Presidency confirmed the attack".

UPDATE 0910 GMT: Al Arabiya television is calling the incident a "bomb" and an "assassination attempt", injuring a number of people. It claims "the Iranian presidency confirmed the attack".

According to Al Arabiya, the explosion hit a car carrying journalists and presidential staff before Ahmadinejad addressed a crowd (which makes Iran state media reports on the speech, with no mention of the attack, even more curious), and the assailant was arrested on the spot.

 

Ahmadinejad appeared on live Iranian television at a sports stadium. He made no mention of any attack.

----

Khabar Online is reporting that a grenade exploded near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's motorcade as the President visited Hamedan in western Iran, 250 miles southwest of Tehran. The explosion occurred between the airport and the site of the President's speech, although it is unclear if the incident occurred before or after the appearance

There are no reports of casualties.

Press TV has referred to Ahmadinejad's speech but has not mentioned the explosion. IRNA is summarising the presentation --- "Iran will not fall prey to the poison of hypocrites" --- but also has no reference to an attack.

Lebanon-Israel Update: UN Support for West Jerusalem; Washington's Dilemma over Beirut

On Wednesday, a Lebanese source told the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar that the Lebanese Army was first to open fire in Tuesday's clash with Israel Defense Forces. However, the source also stated that it was their right "to defend Lebanon's sovereignty", implying that Israeli soldiers were on the Lebanese side of the borderline.

Israel, in an official letter of complaint to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, asserted that IDF soldiers did not cross the border. An official with the United Nations peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, later said that the Israeli units were in their territory, and Milos Strugar, UNIFIL's senior political advisor, added that UN deals "with complaints on provocations of Lebanese soldiers against IDF units on a daily basis".

Meanwhile, the US Government finds itself caught between its ally Israel and the need to bolster Saad Hariri's "moderate" government and a Lebanese army which is to be distinguished from Hezbollah militants.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Lebanon Message, Hezbollah’s Response, Livni Challenges Netanyahu

On Tuesday,Washinigton's "we don't want to see this happen again" response was criticised by West Jerusalem as "neutral". The next day, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said that the firing by Lebanese armed forces on Israeli troops was "totally unjustified and unwarranted" while calling on both sides to show restraint and urging the United Nations to oversee a calming of the crisis:

We appreciate the work of the United Nations both in the meeting today and creating the cease-fire yesterday. We're going to be working intensively to see that tensions along this border are eased.

However, the Obama Administration might have some friction from Congress over military aid to Lebanon. For 2010, the US approved $100 million in assistance to the Lebanese military, as well as $109 million in economic aid and $20 million in anti-narcotics funds. The amount of aid for 2011 is approximately the same.

Talking to The Jerusalem Post, Florida Representative Ron Klei said "the continued support of the Lebanese Army" will "come up in conversations in the Congress". Klei added:

If in fact it’s factually shown that this was a Lebanese government authorized action, I think a lot of members would be very concerned about continuing to provide military support to Lebanon. I certainly would be.

However, even Klei admitted that hostility to Lebanon might be overtaken by the need to maintain a pro-American government in Beirut: 

It doesn’t mean there’s going to be a certain reduction, because unfortunately for that region it’s the lesser of two evils. We’d much rather work with the army than Hezbollah.