The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics

Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar's Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader's Speech
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day

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2200 GMT: We have received further information on both the Rah-e-Sabz and New York Times stories on the Khamenei order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi and on the Rafsanjani "retreat" because of military pressure.

The information indicates that one of Hashemi Rafsanjani's colleagues has confirmed the Karroubi arrest story to one of the best reporters covering Iran. We are therefore taking the story very seriously.

More to come in a special analysis on Saturday.

2120 GMT: An EA correspondent picks up the following from the Rah-e-Sabz story on Rafsanjani's apparent retreat: "He went as far as to say that Karroubi's arrest warrant should not have been issued by Khamenei himself and that the presence of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] in the political sphere will make matters 'complicated'. Khamenei apparently reacted with a long silence to this remark."

2100 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Rah-e-Sabz reports that an "informed source" claims that the Supreme Leader has issued an order for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Almost as significant is the claim, from the same report, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has told members of the Center for Strategic Research of the Expediency Council, about a meeting between himself and Ayatollah Khamenei: “I will back away from everything, they are not granting me permission to speak at the Friday prayers anymore.”

The New York Times, which picked up the story, has added from "a person close to Mr. Rafsanjani" that "the order was issued at least two weeks ago".

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Hasan Fallahizadeh, who had been on hunger strike in Evin Prison, was released on Wednesday on medical grounds.

1520 GMT: The Karroubi Response. A "source close to Mehdi Karoubi" has told Rooz Online's English-language website:

Mr. Karoubi was taken back over the closure of the committee because he believed that the two meetings that he had with judiciary officials on the subject were very constructive.If the committee continues its work with Mr. Karoubi, then many issues will come to light. New issues are surfacing with every passing day. They wish to cut Mr. Karoubi from the people.

That is a straightforward reaction, but the emerging question for us is whether Karroubi comes to the forefront to lead the protests on Qods Day next Friday. The source's comments were focused on the narrower question of the abuse investigation: "Mr. Karoubi shall continue his pursue of the cases of the victims of the post election atrocities....The issue is very clear: Crimes have taken place and the Islamic system is responsible to investigate them."

1515 GMT: More of the Hard Line. The Supreme Leader's address was not the only tough talk on Friday. The leader of prayers in Qom has wondered why Mir Hossein Mousavi has not been arrested and called for the "voice" of the Green movement to be "strangled" on Qods Day.

1500 GMT: Back after an afternoon break. Radio Farda has posted a summary of the Karroubi letter to head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani (English text in separate entry), emphasising Karroubi's declaration that the Revolutionary Guard has hidden documentation of rapes of detainees.

1120 GMT: Agence France Presse's take on the speech: Confrontation. They use this extract, "Those who draw swords against the regime will be confronted. Differences of views should not lead to conflicts....The policy of the regime is to work with the majority. But if opposition groups have ideas that are against the nation's security and the principles of the regime, they will be confronted."

1115 GMT: Irony of the Day (so far). I'm just checking in after a trip to Manchester --- thanks to Mike Dunn and Chris Emery for covering the Supreme Leader's speech.

Reading the updates, 0855 GMT stands out: "Supreme Leader recalls the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution."

Hmm, would that be the same Ayatollah Taleghani whose memorial service was initially blocked, for the first time in 30 years, by the regime earlier this week?

0935 GMT: And it's over. The Supreme Leader ends a hardline, but to some observers nervous, performance with a final warning against any Quds Day demonstrations. A full analysis will follow once we have collected our thoughts..

0930 GMT: Great Britain singled out for more than 200 years of experience of evil in Iran.

0925 GMT: Khamenei recalls another momentous in Iran's modern history. He is now recalling Iran's victory over the US in the 1998 soccer World Cup!  "Iran's goal is a goal for us"!

0920 GMT: State TV showing crowds outside Friday Prayers singing 'Death to England'.

0910 GMT: VIPs present - Larijani Ali and Sadegh Larijani, Rahim Safavi, Hassan Rowhani, Int. Minister Heydar Moslehi. President Ahmadinejad seated next to Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, former judiciary chief.

0906 GMT: Khamenei justifies the crack down..."All States, even European ones, react with force to violent threats. We accept criticism, but not threats."

0900 GMT: A nod to tolerance clearly setting up an attack on dissent. "Differences in opinion are valid and accepted within the framework of the system. The system will not react against anyone in this case; people who do not want to wreck the peace of the regime, and of society will not be dealt with."

0857 GMT: "There have been divisions throughout the revolution", some costly,. others not for the revolution, Khomeini dealt with them at all levels, people who were revolutionaries but that we could no longer work with." The Supreme Leader appears to be trying to reassert his leadership of the Revolution's legacy and the current political system.

0855 GMT: Supreme Leader starts the second sermon by recalling the memory of a modern Shia icon: Ayatollah Taleghani, a contemporary of Ayatollah Khomenei who died shortly after the Revolution.

0850 GMT: Khamenei has the whole crowd weeping:  Suspicions that Ali Larijani's tears are less than convincing. Crowd is big, although they are yet to show the sorrounding streets.

0845 GMT: The SL is winding up the first sermon, the Quranic one, but building up to a possibly confronational second sermon: "Imam Ali said "after tollerance, Ali drew the sword"

0840 GMT: 'What would the Imam Ali do?' The Supreme Leader is drawing heavily on themese of 'spirituality' with particular emphasis on Imam's Ali's example.

0830 GMT: The Speech begins and the Supreme Leader warns of the "dangers" of the seperation of religion from politics. Politics becomes "immoral" in that case, just like in the "secular western".

0430 GMT: We've prepared for today's big events, the Supreme Leader's address at Friday prayers in Tehran, with a quick preview of the issues at play both for the opposition and for the regime. And no doubt we'll be occupied today with covering and then deciphering the speech.

This should not, however, ignore another development. The Green movement has not folded in the face of the toughest strikes on its leadership since the days after the 12 June election. Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded, with his criticism of the Government and his upholding of the "Green Path of Hopse"; the impact of this, given the restrictions on Mousavi's communications, remains to be seen.

Perhaps even more important, however, the Mehdi Karroubi network has bounced back. The Etemade Melli party website (including Saham News) has revived, against the expectations of many. Today Karroubi publishes his letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, on the investigation of the abuse of detainees. Karroubi's line is clear: the Ahmadinejad Government's raids and arrests this week were meant to stop this process, but this must not happen.

Which, of course, raises a vital question: after his recent reference to those "outside the law", does Larijani agree?

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi's Letter to Sadegh Larijani on Detainees

The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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Translation by Pedestrian:

To Mr. Larijani,

The honorable head of the judiciary,

Greetings,

As you know, after the controversial presidential election and its painful, alarming aftermath, I wrote many letters to the officials to share with them certain points, critiques and objections and to give the necessary warnings. The last of these letters was addressed to you. You have just recently accepted responsibility [of the judiciary] and are chief justice. And now I will share with you the details of my meetings with your representatives and some of the marginal events that took place which led to my personal office and party being sealed. I do this as a religious and patriotic obligation. So that future generations do not say that Karoubi was frightened off by pressure and arrests. Even if you do not know, others do know that in the my past, pressure and threats and limitations not only did not deter me, but made me even more determined in the path I had chosen to follow.

Mr. Larijani,

I don’t know how updated you may be of our sessions with the committee you had appointed [from the judiciary]. To inform you and the people, I must tell you that we had two meetings with the honorable Mr. Khalfi, Mohseni Ejeie, and Raeesi, and these meetings went well and a glimpse of the evidence [we had] from the regrettable, unforgivable incidents that had occurred were presented. In the first meeting, information about three people was given, along with a CD and the necessary documents which were all evidence of torture and rape that had been inflicted on boys and girls in identified and unidentified detention centers. In addition to these three documents, we personally hinted at what had happened to two girls, Taraneh Mousavi (the real one) and Saeedeh Pouraghayi. The second meeting was this Monday and lasted for three hours and in this meeting too, in addition to our many debates, I put forth one of my other documents on one condition: that nothing would happen to this individual or the family just because of [our] demand for justice.

[We did not want anything to happen to the family] - things that did happen to another individual who I had introduced in another document, during the time of the previous prosecutor of Tehran [Mortazavi] and that family was forced to endure pressure and pain. Thus, this time I gave my evidence and I warned that the neglect of the previous prosecutor must not be repeated, we must not have wrongdoers enter this scenario, people who are not after justice, but would rather threaten and dishonor the person [evidence] that I had put forth. People who will sell off the honor of the judicial system, and that too in an Islamic society, for the price of keeping the culprits safe.

I should also add that in these meetings that took place to look into the allegations of torture and improper behavior in prisons and the events after the election, they repeatedly asked me: do you think it is beneficial to go on collecting information about rape and torture and the killing of people, is it not possible that these documents will get in the hands of the wrong person? And I replied that I keep these documents in a safe place, and if we reach a conclusion I will destroy them. And I reaffirmed that documents which reveal rape and torture are nothing to be proud of for me to want to keep , or to put on a wall. These are documents that will help us achieve justice and get back the rights of the oppressed and once that is achieved, they will be destroyed and the vile smell and hideous face of evil will be destroyed with them.

[I also said] know this, that if in my investigations I conclude that any of these allegations are false, I will step forward and right this wrong. In this regard, my further investigations had proven the falsity of some of the previous statements I had made about Saeedeh Pouraghayi, which I corrected.

In any case, these two meetings were over, and in the end, I pointed to another new painful case I had just heard and I added that I am in the process of following up this new case and I will present my documents once I am done. I was also asked to look further into the hidden aspects of the Taraneh Mousavi case, and to help the judiciary shed more light on this issue. At the end of the second meeting I gave a suggestion- which was met with the approval of the committee - that we should put an end to this process of taking and bringing documents and that you [the judiciary] can now start investigating the truth with the documents that have already been presented. Because those documents were enough to reveal the truth and to identify the guilty parties.

Mr. Larijani,

I gave this suggestion and left, and our meeting with the committee came to a good end. But the day after, the tides turned. On the orders of Tehran’s prosecutor, a group attacked my office. They searched the office and in doing so, they did not limit themselves to the office documents, but searched and confiscated my personal letters and writings, my bills and private papers. In the end, they sealed my office, and even confiscated the charity supplies I gather there every year. They arrested Mr. Davari, the editor of the Etemad Melli website. They had not finished shutting down my office when they did the same to the office of the Etemad Melli party, of which I am the executive. They unlawfully confiscated the documents of a party that is registered under the laws of the Islamic Republic and finally sealed the office of the party as well. These actions did not suffice and they arrested Dr. Alireza Beheshti, the son of the late Ayatollah Beheshti and Mr. Morteza Alviri, that devoted revolutionary who was once a member of parliament and the mayor of Tehran, and the ambassador of the Islamic Republic in Europen countries.

The Office of the Publication of Ayatollah Beheshti’s Books, one of the founders of the Islamic Republic, was also sealed. I am left wondering: did these events occur on Tuesday as a result of my meeting on Monday? I am left baffled not by what they have done to Karoubi, but that they think that Karoubi, the son of Ahmad, is going to leave the field and choose to remain silent? Now I know why some friends and advisers insisted that I give all the evidence for rape and torture as it had been retold to me by the victims, on a CD and to keep a copy in a safe place. Because the machine of terror is still at work and who knows, some of the witnesses may now take back their claims out of fear.

Because the Islamic Republic has reached a place where the house of Mehdi Karoubi too is no longer a safe place. Because any horrible, indecent act is possible in the Islamic Republic and nothing is far from the imagination.

Mr. Larijani,

I still insist on the original letter I wrote to the head of the expediency council, and after the terror of recent events, I am more determined than ever. When I see that the head of a military organization - the documents are all available - writes a letter to the ministry of health and orders it forbidden to give copies of medical records to those who have been inured in recent events, and prevents the hospitals from giving the victims their records, I am more determined to find out what reasons exist for such threats and fear? According to the oath doctors take, they are obliged to treat anyone who comes to them, even if the injured is a long, lost enemy of their father. And you, as the chief justice, should judge this: how can a doctor feel safe about attending to his medical obligations when such a letter is written by such a high ranking military official?

If an innocent victim dies in such circumstance, how can you hear the pleas of his/her family as chief justice [under such conditions]? If someone has been raped, how can they obtain the necessary documents from medical experts and give them to you in such an atmospheres of terror? Before, we argued why military personnell were entering the spheres of politics and economics. We now see that politics and economics were not enough to satisfy their hunger, and they have now entered the field of medicine as well.

Mr. Larijani,

I assume that you claim to represent justice and I am certain that you are well aware of your responsibility to defend the victim and to punish the oppressor. Thus, in response to your religious and legal obligations, and for the sake of the public, I ask of you to demand that the documents that have been released be investigated. And in this path, I ask that you prevent this atmosphere of terror. And that you do not allow armed and paramilitary forces to contemplate an intervention into law, as they have done politics and medicine. [That you stop] them from conquering another mountain after they did the presidential election and creating an even worse situation. I also recommend that in this environment where thanks to the ex-prosecutor, the free press has been silenced, you do not allow some to take paper to pen claiming to do so for Islam, when in reality, they are doing it against Islam. And [for them] to enter an even more safe haven where they can spread their vulgarity and to blast any hopes for justice. And to terrorize and ridicule revolutionaries. Do not let counterfeit documents take reign, to a point where national TV can broadcast another sham scenario like that of Taraneh Mousavi, and create new ambiguity and chaos, to throw such deep stones in the well that even one hundred fair minded people can not attempt to bring them out.

Mr. Larijani,

You formed a committee to investigate the regretful events and the wrongdoing that occurred after the election and Mr. Khalafi, who was your representative, claimed on your part that you have said that these claims must all be thoroughly investigated. But my question is this: after such terror, fear and threats, is it even possible to attend to the terror and atrocity that occurred after the election? You are left to answer this question but know that Mehdi Karoubi still insists on reclaiming the rights of the oppressed. Such old, overused tactics may work to silence some, but they will not work on Mehdi Karoubi and he will forcefully take a stand, and he will not allow a group of nouveau riche to sell off a country and the legacy of an Imam which was attained after a democratic revolution and the blood of many martyrs.

With hopes of your success in the judiciary,

Mehdi Karroubi

The Latest from Iran (10 September): Who Fits Where?

NEW Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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1955 GMT: The Youth and Student Section of Mehdi Karroubi's reformist Etemade Melli party have condemned the acts of the judiciary and security forces with the arrest of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors. The section declared that these actions in the run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.) not only will fail to cause fear in people but will encourage them to attend the epic demonstration on that day.

1815 GMT: There is a bit of a buzz about a letter from the noted political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader, proclaiming that Iranians will celebrate the "decline of religious despotism".

1740 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has expressed support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “Green Path of Hope” as a manifesto for the liberation of Iranians from the "defective cycle of tyranny".

1735 GMT: Still don't believe there is a foreign-directed effort at "velvet revolution" in Iran? Well here, courtesy of Raja News, is the super-duper, multi-colour chart (with arrows) to prove it.

1730 GMT: Norooz, which was down earlier today because of an "Internal Server Error", is back online.

1440 GMT: An EA correspondent clarifies our 1415 GMT entry on newssites linked to Mehdi Karroubi: "Saham News is back to posting new items, while tagheer.ir is a site that was set up some 7-8 months ago during Khatami's President candidacy."

1425 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, has said that if Mehdi Karroubi cannot establish his claims of detainee abuse, he should be tried on criminal charges. The source is significant because Bahonar had been a vocal foe of the President during the debate over the Cabinet.

1415 GMT: There are reports that staff of Mehdi Karroubi have set up an alternative website to replace the suspended Saham News/Etemade Melli party site. The alternative, tagheer.ir, has similar content and approach to that of Saham News.

At the same time, it appears that the Norooz site, a key source for recent news is down because of "Internal Server Error". Before it went down, the site was disputing the Government's denial of its list of 72 people killed in post-election conflict and reporting that the memorial for the late Ayatollah Taleghani, which the Government had tried to block, had been held at the family home.

1345 GMT: Amnesty International says it has reports that Caspian Makan, the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot and killed by Basiji militia on 20 June, has been released from detention.

1330 GMT: Report that Zohreh Ashtiani, a reporter with Saham News, the Etemade Melli party's website, was arrested and her house searched. A later report says she was released after 12 hours of questioning.

0940 GMT: Just back from an interview with BBC World Service Radio on President Obama's speech on health care (the audio is now up for the next 24 hours). Not much breaking in Iran.

And, confirming our  0800 GMT post, it appears that Iran, apart from The Bomb, will stay off the agenda for most international media. A CNN anchor has just posted their editorial call: "Iraq blast/Afghanistan/India stampede/Mex hijacking/Turkey flood/Taiwan Cabinet/world cup". Yep, the US match with Trinidad & Tobago beats out any consideration of the Government crackdown. (No, the CNN website never did mention the arrest of key Mousavi and Karroubi advisors like Alireza Beheshti.)

0815 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted "The Green Brief" for Wednesday, including the essential correction that he gave us (0655 GMT) on yesterday's statement about those breaking the law by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

0800 GMT: The New York Times, which had been doing quite well of late with Iran coverage, decides to indulge in peripheral hysteria this morning. Michael Slackman, Nazila Fathi, and Robert Worth, each of whom has some knowledge of Iran as something more than Islam and bombs, give way for David Sanger, who knows what was told to him by the most recent "Western diplomat" or Administration official. So today, it's another recycling of the superficial and misleading claim, "U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb".

(Superficial because "ability to expedite a nuclear bomb" is vaguery bordering on linguistic nonsense. Misleading even in the caveats in the article: "a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon" is shorthand for Iran either does not yet have or has not pursued the capability to convert low-yield uranium into highly-enriched uranium in practice, rather than theory. Thus, "the new intelligence information collected by the Obama administration finds no convincing evidence that design work has resumed."

All swept away because someone told Sanger something on his way to the office to file a story: "In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year.")

Perhaps Sanger might write, for his next not-exactly-an-exclusive, "Ohmygod, Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All!"

0655 GMT: With a slow morning for breaking news (which is tempting fate, since we said the same thing yesterday and then faced a torrent of afternoon development), we have posted an analysis, "Retrenching before Friday Prayers". And we've taken time to give a breaking story, featured in The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the respect it deserves: "EA Exclusive: Iran and Venezuela are Going to Kill Us All".

There is, however, one significant development or, rather, a  correction of a development. We updated yesterday on the interview of the head of Iran's judiciary, "Has Larijani Jumped Behind Ahmadinejad?", because we read his condemnation of those "outside the law" as  a reference to the opposition. Indeed we posted in our last update, The New York Times, drawing from Fars News Agency, was highlighting Larijani's phrase “great costs to the Islamic system”.

Josh Shahryar has had a close look, however, at the interview as it appeared on Radio Zamaneh. Read on its own, it is unclear who is being targeted by this passage:

Some had tried to call the elections fraudulent and attempted to stray outside "the circle of legality". [Larijani] said that law-breaking had become rampant and it had been observed in the aftermath of the elections how such actions had inflicted a great cost on the Islamic regime. He said that these violators shouldn't think that they're not being watched and the Judiciary should pursue the perpetrators of any such law-breaking legally.

However, the ambiguity evaporates when the previous paragraph is added: "Judiciary Chief Sadegh Larijani today said that what had happened in the detention centers had inflicted a huge blow on the standing of the regime. He said that the Judiciary would pursue these violations carefully and vigorously."

Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers

Iran: Mousavi Statement on Arrests of Top Opposition Advisors
Iran: Ahmadinejad’s “All-In” Move?
The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised


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0445 GMT: Wednesday was a retrenching day for most parties in the Iran conflict. The Supreme Leader, inevitably, kept a low profile ahead of his big appearance on Friday at prayers in Tehran. We are none the wiser as to whether he is aligned with President Ahmadinejad's aggressive crackdown on the opposition, is catching up with moves he did not anticipate, or is manoeuvring for position between factions within the Establishment.

Ahmadinejad's Government, meanwhile, played the international actor by presenting its proposals for the next steps on Iran's nuclear programme to the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Russia, China, France, and Germany). The paper will soon be kicked back to Tehran as insufficient and even irrelevant; within hours of its presentation yesterday the ever-present "Western diplomats" were leaking to ever-present media channels that they were not happy with a sketchy five-page outline that dealt more with general global issues than with verification of Iran's nuclear status.

The most visible move came from the Green opposition via Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement reacting to the arrest of his aides and those of Mehdi Karroubi in the raids of the previous 48 hours. On its own, this was a "hold the line" statement: keep calm, keep alert, don't be intimidated. The best way to read it, in fact, is next to Mousavi's previous statement for the "Green Path of Hope", set out just before the Government move against his offices and staff. That statement, in addition to its call for a social movement of protest, outlined nine steps to be taken to restore Iran's political, legal, religious, and social integrity.

Karroubi, meanwhile, kept a low profile, possibly as a tactical measure, possibly because it has been enforced by the shutdown of his media outlets, and former President Khatami also made no intervention. (Nor, apart from the Green movement, did Hashemi Rafsanjani, pop up.) Instead, the chatter was about the ripples from Sunday's meeting of prominent clerics in Qom, which including several Grand Ayatollahs. It is not definite but probable that the gathering spurring Ayatollah Golpaygani's letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the Cabinet, which brought a firm rebuke from Khamenei, and an invitation to Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to discuss matters.

How much space do they have to manoeuvre? On the Government side, the most curious development was an interview with the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, with criticism of those who acted "outside the law". We initially read this as a possible alignment behind Ahmadinejad, interpreting Larijani's outsiders as the opposition. There is, however, a question mark over this, with some Iran-watchers seeing Larijani's statement as a reference to the security forces and military who abused detainees at prisons like Kahrizak. We will update on this later today.

The Latest from Iran (9 September): The Stakes Are Raised

NOW POSTED Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday's Prayers
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2220 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President (Continued)? Earlier today (1125 GMT) we noted that the head of judiciary seemed to be aiming at those who went "beyond the law" because of the "false claim" of electoral fraud. Another snippet of the interview is even more dramatic, as Larijani denounces those who have brought “great costs to the Islamic system" with their opposition.

2020 GMT: More on Ayatollahs Take a Stand? (1540 GMT) Some interesting developments from the Sunday meeting of senior clerics in Qom that we have been following. Ayatollah Golpaygani wrote a letter criticising the Ahmadinejad Cabinet; the Supreme Leader replied sharply, effectively prohibiting the Ayatollah from "interfering" in Government issues. Meanwhile, the Qom meeting has asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, based in Najaf in Iraq, to travel to Iran for discussions and Grand Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani has expressed regret for congratulating Ahmadinejad on his election victory.

2010 GMT: Report that Sadegh Noroozi, head of political council of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party, has been released.

1850 GMT: Bemoans?! Our friends at Press TV show their respect for the Mousavi statement: "Mousavi bemoans arrest of top aides, urges calm".

1840 GMT: Remember our emerging assessment that the biggest challenge for President Ahmadinejad may be governing Iran, especially handling the economy, rather than confronting the opposition? This from Press TV: "The value of Iran's oil products exports has plunged by 51 percentage points in the first half of the current Iranian year due to the global economic downturn."

1815 GMT: A Correction. We reported earlier (0920 GMT) that Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was arrested yesterday. In fact, there has been no confirmation of Baghi's arrest although the Association's offices were shut down.

1810 GMT: Quick! Look Over There! I suspect international media will be absorbed by this story, rather than any international developments in Iran, until the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday. From Press TV: "Amid international calls on Iran to engage the West over its nuclear program, the country presents the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with its latest package of proposals to tackle global issues."

1800 GMT: CNNFail/TwitterSuccess. I know, I risk being repetitive but this exchange, over the arrest of Alireza Beheshti, has to be noted to be believed:

(1330 GMT) verypissedoff: Why are CNN & ABC silent? #iranelection Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained
[The Reuters story was posted at 1251 GMT. Enduring America ran it as an urgent update, following Twitter to the Mowj-e-Sabz website, at 1945 GMT on Wednesday.]

(1655 GMT) rosemaryCNN Reuters: Ally of Iran's Mousavi detained, website says

Despite the fact that Rosemary Church, one of CNN's anchors, finally acknowledged the story almost 24 hours after it happened, CNN's website still has no reference to the far-from-minor development.

This is in no way a slapdown of Rosemary Church, who does good work and has used Twitter (unlike others in the media) to interact with others rather than for self-promotion of her and her network. However, based on the last 72 hours, let alone the last three months, I will take my stand against anyone who says Twitter is merely a diversion which should be set aside in the work of "real" journalists.

1540 GMT: Ayatollahs Taking a Stand? We reported on Monday about a meeting in Qom of several Grand Ayatollahs and senior clerics including, Ayatollahs Golpaygani, Makarem-Shirazi, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri, and Mousavi-Ardebili, on “practical steps against the coup government”. Now the Green movement's website, Mowj-e-Sabz, is reporting that the clerics are pressing their challenge against an "illegitimate" government, including its selection of female ministers, despite an attempt by the Supreme Leader through Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi to check the opposition.

1420 GMT: We have posted a translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on the arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi advisors in a separate entry.

1400 GMT: Another Arrest. In addition to the detentions on Tuesday of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, Etemade Melli website editor Mohammad Davari, security forces arrested Mohammad Ozlati-Moqaddam, a former IRGC commander and head of the veteran’s faction of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, at his home.

Ozlati-Moqaddam, who formerly served in the IRGC political bureau alongside Hossein Shariatmadari and Hossein Safar-Harandi, was arrested on Tuesday.

1330 GMT: A slow period has been broken by the latest statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi. Condemning the arrests of Alireza Beheshti, his top advisor, and Mortreza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s top advisor, he warns people that “more difficult” days are on the way and advising them to be calm and remain careful and alert. At the same time, Mousavi is asking them to not be intimidated by "the coup government", as the regime's "pathetic acts" are doomed to fail like their previous efforts.

1140 GMT: Hours before he was arrested yesterday, Mehdi Karroubi's aide Morteza Alviri, who was also a member of the Karroubi-Mousavi committees investigating detentions, gave an interview to Rooz Online (translation by HomyLafayette):

The regime's actions have pushed political activity out of parties and into homes and within the population....Silence is not acquiescence. There is a bomb within the hearts of the people, and it can explode at any time....I still believe that fraud took place in the election. The country is in a state of martial law.

1125 GMT: Did Sadegh Larijani Just Jump Behind the President? The head of Iran's judiciary has said that the "false claim" of election fraud led some people to go "beyond the law", adding, "The life of our social system is dependent on law enforcement."

Larijani was vague beyond this, for example, on detentions and trials, but I wonder if the statement could be read as implicit acceptance of the Ahmadinejad line.

1040 GMT: It's All about Us (outside Iran). The perils of an attention span which is all about what Iran means for "us" rather than what is happening inside Iran is all too clear in Simon Tisdall's blunt statement today in The Guardian of London: "If anyone still wonders what happened to the Iranian revolution of 2009, the answer is: the hardliners won."

Even a quick glance at EA's analyses, and those of other sites like Anonymous Iran and Keeping the Change, complicates Tisdall's assertions. Who exactly are his "hardliners"? Ahmadinejad? The Revolutionary Guard? The Supreme Leader? All of the above? And has the opposition just evaporated in the face of measures such as yesterday's raids?

These are trifles, however, because Tisdall is not really concerned with anything beyond a superficial reference to the internal situation. His focus is "the difficulties inherent in dealing with Tehran". Nuclear programme. Sanctions. "Soft power". All of which leads him into the cul-de-sac:

One is to admit the Israelis may be right in arguing that military action is the only sure way to hinder or stop Iran's nuclear advances. The other is to do nothing – and hope that Iran's repeated assurances that it does not seek the atom bomb are true.

As bleak as the picture may be in Iran after the last 48 hours, it's far better than this simplifying of "our" options by reducing the Iranian people to bystanders and pawns.

0920 GMT: A Far-from-Incidental Note. The Mousavi-led Committee for the Tracking of Prisoners and Mehdi Karroubi's operations were not the only organisations targeted in the last 48 hours. Emadeddine Baghi, head of the Association for the Defense of Prisoners, was also arrested yesterday. Baghi's office was searched and documents and equipment were taken by security forces.

0825 GMT: MediaWatch. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles on yesterday's raid of Karroubi offices, although they only briefly mention the later arrest of Alireza Beheshti. The Los Angeles Times, normally in the lead of US-based coverage, get tangled up: anxious to feature their journalistic coup of an interview with Mehdi Karroubi, they reduce news of the raids and arrests of his staff to an insert paragraph.

CNN, continuing its poor coverage even as its correspondents pile onto Twitter to promote themselves, do not notice the Beheshti arrest. Al Jazeera also misses the Beheshti news, however, and the BBC, however, is even worse: distracted by Iran's promotional claim that it is submitting proposals on its nuclear programme today, they see nothing at all inside Iran.

0820 GMT: It appears that, with its offices raided and its editor-in-chief arrested, the Etemade Melli website (which includes Saham News) is suspended. There have been no new posts since 3:25 p.m. local time yesterday.

0800 GMT: The Mousavi response to the raid on their office and later arrest of chief advisor Alireza Beheshti? This was posted three hours ago on Facebook: "Coup gov.! We R the Media & wont let our leaders be taken hostage silently.Go Green & Bring #iranelection back on top:World will be watching /"

0750 GMT: Almost lost in yesterday's chaos was the statement of the commander of the Navy of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Rear Admiral Morteza Saffari, pressing the foreign-led "soft war" pretext: “Iran's great territory, population, military might, and unique geographical location in the Middle East have turned it into a strong power, and political experts in Western countries know that they cannot overwhelm Iran by launching a military attack or hard war."

Saffari claimed that a “media war” had stirred up “civil disobedience”, asserting, “The US strategy to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on soft measures," even as it continues threats to launch a military attack.

The rhetoric is far from new, of course. What is significant is how the IRGC is pushing it less than a week after the Supreme Leader denied that foreign powers were able to pursue their "soft war" because of the strength of the Iranian system.

0730 GMT: It looks like folks in Iran are picking up the pieces from yesterday's dramatic events, so we've spent the time on a detailed analysis, "Ahmadinejad's 'All-In' Move", considering the significance of the raids and arrests. Our easier conclusion is that this is an attempt to break the Green movement and back down Hashemi Rafsanjani. The tricker reading is whether the President and Revolutionary Guard have done this as an assertion of authority against the Supreme Leader. We'll be debating this throughout the day (and beyond) and welcome your comments and ideas.

Josh Shahryar is also working on an analysis for a high-profile publication; we'll keep you posted on when it appears. Meanwhile, his latest "Green Brief" summarising Tuesday's events is out.