Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?

Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

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It took 48 hours but, after the assertion of Presidential authority with the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet and the cancellation of events such as the Qadr Night ceremony at the Khomeini shrine, the Green movement fought back yesterday.

There were the criticisms from reformist members of Parliament, both of the Revolutionary Guards' threats against leaders like former President Khatami and Mousavi Khoeniha and of the cancellation of the Khomeini shrine event, where Khatami was due to speak. There was Mehdi Karroubi's vigorous statement that he would "defend the values of the revolution and the nation’s interests as long as he lives".

And then there was the statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Our sharp readers will have noticed our impression that, over the last month, Mousavi was either being pushed or was withdrawing to the sidelines of this conflict. Yesterday he tried to assure his followers (and his enemies) that this was not the case.

We've published the English translation in a separate entry. Let's just say here that this is a rousing call for "The Green Path of Hope". It is forthright in setting out both a defense of the post-election movement and its difficulties it has faced from a regime "creating crises and catastrophes and keeping away from any attempt to solve the problems and quandaries in society". And it declares "a crucial necessity to take a social approach (instead of only a political approach) to solving the current conflict".

Mousavi's implication is that a head-on political challenge to President Ahmadinejad is not going to bring results, given the power that the regime holds through security forces and Parliament's unwillingness to force a showdown. So, to bring about "restoration of...forgotten objectives" of the Islamic Revolution, Mousavi is proposing a "broad social movement to repair and create some of the most fundamental political foundations that will influence all affairs of the country and provide the essential needs of various committees and parties for proper and fruitful activism".

This may dissatisfy some activists as a diversion from the political arena. On the other hand, Mousavi is pointing to a longer-term effort, building links within and across sections of Iranian society to ensure that resistance --- on religious, legal, economic, and social grounds --- is maintained and to build pressure for change.

It should also be noted, contrary to some initial reports, that the statement is not void of political objectives. Mousavi sets out nine demands, including a "truth-finding commission", a revision of election laws, punishment of those committing post-election abuses and crimes, release of detainees, and freedom of the press. Together with the efforts of Mehdi Karroubi and others, the platform maintain a focus on the Achilles' heel for the regime: the continued system of detentions, "confessions", and trials.

The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

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2200 GMT: Another Reformist Fightback. Nasrullah Torabi, a reformist member of Parliament, has condemned the "desperate act" of the regime in applying pressure on the family of Imam Khomeini to cancel former President Khatami’s speech on Qadr Night and eventually the entire ceremony in the Imam's shrine (the first cancellation in 20 years), saying that these kinds of behaviour will cause people greater concern and have negative consequences in society.

2010 GMT: Striking Back at the Revolutionary Guard. On Wednesday we noted the declaration of General Johammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, that former Khatami and other reformist leaders such as Mousavi Khoeniha, as well as Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, had tried "to pull down the leadership at any cost".

A reader points us to the story's sequel. The Association of Combatant Clerics condemned Jafari’s assertions and asked for a judicial response: “Is it inappropriate to ask the prosecutor general to appropriately respond to this slander and lies, and other similar remarks, which have incited public opinion and are the groundwork for dangerous plans, particularly as the head of the judiciary has stressed that any violator regardless of the office he holds has to be confronted?”

Mohammad Ali Tabesh, the Secretary General of the minority reformist faction in Parliament, went even further, “Those who gave the IRGC permission to intervene in the elections and those who gave the Pasdaran the warrants to arrest and extract forced confessions, must be prosecuted, rather than those who have demonstrated they allegiance to the regime.”

Tabesh added to his warning, "I advise them to let us keep quiet. We have so far refrained from talking about many issues in order to preserve the regime and the revolution, and not allow the enemies to misuse such expressions under these conditions and do not intend to talk about them. So I hope these gentlemen do not do something that will result in posturing when some truths and realities will be made which will damage the regime.”

1950 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has condemned the post-election repression, asking how those who have been brutally confronting people can call themselves Muslims. He added that these vicious acts and crimes by coup agents have tainted the face of Islam in the world and made youth lose hope in Islam and convert to other religions.

1940 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has said that he will defend the values of the revolution and the nation's interests as long as he lives and will never give up on this effort. He emphasised that the continuation of the Government's post-election approach is dangerous for the fate and future of the country, destroying the “Republic”, and emphasised continuing the resistance.

1600 GMT: Ebrahim Raeesi, the deputy head of Iran's judiciary and one of the three-person panel appointed by Sadegh Larijani to investigate claims of abuse of detainees, has said that Mehdi Karroubi has yet to prove the allegations put forward in his letter of late July.

1545 GMT: Great Blogs Think Alive. The Los Angeles Times has also picked up on Abdollah Ramezanzadeh's revelations (see 1305 GMT) about his 80-day detention in Evin Prison.

1410 GMT: The Los Angeles Times has now offered their own summary of the Mousavi statement (see 1215 GMT), highlighting this extract: "We shouldn't leave any stone unturned and live up to our commitments in our struggle against cheaters and liars. In pursuing our cause we should brave all the accusations, and we shouldn't duck any act of courage or daring."

1400 GMT: An Iranian website is featuring an interview with a staff member of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, giving details of the alleged secret burials of 40 protestors killed in post-election conflict.

An Iranian activist has provided an English summary via Twitter.

1305 GMT: Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Presidential spokesman in the Khatami Government who was held for almost three months in Evin Prison, has been interviewed by a reporter after his appearance in an Iranian "media court" on other charges:

I was arrested 2 hours after the election on the street by soldiers and was treated very harshly. During the arrest, my young son and I both were beaten. I sustained a cracked skull and broken ribs. Despite the obvious injuries I had, in Evin they only provided me with tissue paper to cover my wounds.

After 80 days in detention I still don't know what I am being charged with. I have been interrogated many times, blind folded, the interrogator stood behind me the entire time. I have been in solitary the entire time and have only had one family visit.

1225 GMT: Parleman News is reporting that, in preparation for a meeting with the special committee of Parliament investigating detentions, a judiciary representative is indicating there should be no more arrests and a release of all those detained on minor charges.

1215 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a statement, which reached us via his wife Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, declaring,

Contrary to what the propaganda machine of the coup [Government] is trying to imply, it is we who are demanding the return of trust and peace to society and it is we who are avoiding any radical and violent act.We have very clear and logical demands. We demand strengthening national unity, the recovery of the moral and ethical identity of the establishment, and rebuilding the public trust as the main component of the political power structure of the country, which is not possible except by accepting people’s rights and gaining their consent in the outcomes of governmental matters and transparency in all measures by the continuous flow of information.

A full English translation is promised soon.

1200 GMT: Such a slow day on the domestic front that we will note the nuclear programme story. The Iranian Government is playing a carrot-and-stick game with the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China). On the one hand, the secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, is saying that Tehran will deliver a proposal next week "for fresh talks". On the other hand, Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh has delivered a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, saying that the agency has not provided "genuine" documents on allegations of a possible nuclear weapons programme and the matter is "closed."

Iran's position, in contrast to the Agency's claim that it had seen "multiple documents from multiple countries", is that the allegations are based solely on American fabrication of an "Iranian laptop" with the material: "The government of the United States has not handed over original documents to the agency since it does not in fact have any authenticated document and all it has are forged documents."

0655 GMT: As I type, I am watching Press TV's feature "Iran Today". It is covering the current political situation, highlighting the Parliament approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. However, it is also striking that it notes the post-election protests and "the opposition has not been appeased".

The conclusion? "The challenges during Ahmadinejad's 2nd term are many", including unemployment, the budget, inflation, poverty, subsidies, and oil experts, "but these could be turned into opportunities by his new Cabinet members".

0630 GMT: The political lull continues this morning, as all sides regroup and reassess after the week's events, dominated by the negotiations over the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. We could re-post both yesterday's introductory update and the analysis "Has Ahmadinejad Won?" (where there has been an outstanding debate amongst readers) with no changes.

State media will make great play today of a visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran and his declaration of support for the Iranian nuclear programme. The Islamic Republic News Agency declares, "A New Club is Born." It's the first appearance by a foreign leader in Iran after the election, apart from brief trips by the King of Oman and Syria's Bashir al-Assad.

Iran: OK, The Cabinet's In, Has Ahmadinejad "Won"?

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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Today, on Iran's "weekend", should be a political catch-your-breath day after the culmination of Parliament's approval of 18 of 21 proposed Ministers for the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. News slowed to a standstill last night, and there is almost nothing of significance this morning. There are Friday prayers in Tehran, but no sign that they will produce the headline statements of the last three months, from the Supreme Leader's 19 June drawing of the post-election line to Hashemi Rafsanjani's 14 July intervention to President Ahmadinejad's hard-line anti-opposition pitch last week.

The President's immediate victory, with one unexpected minor setback (the loss of his proposed Minister of Energy), does not mean that the battle is over. Far from it. However, to appreciate the tensions, contests, and manoeuvres, you have to read far beyond "mainstream" coverage, especially outside Iran.

Most of the Western press have pretty much lost the plot. That's why, to our obvious frustration, almost all (with the notable exception of The New York Times) offered simple and misleading reviews of the final Parliament act yesterday. For some, the vote was the signal to move the focus to Iran's nuclear programme. For some, it was the quick grab headline of the Islamic Republic's first woman minister or Mr Most Wanted (Ahmad Vahidi, for a 1994 bombing in Argentina) becoming the Minister of Defense. For others, it was a "white flag" moment for the opposition, as Iran's "hardliners" had united behind the President. Game over.

Wrong. To be honest, I found yesterday's discussion by readers on our updates far more fascinating and useful than the press summaries. (Thanks, by the way, to all who have contributed.) Have a look, because it is here that the next steps of Hashemi Rafsanjani --- who dropped out of the non-Iranian narrative of events --- are considered. It is here that the important matter of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, and its relationship with the President and the Supreme Leader, is in play.

And it is here that attention is paid to those conservative and principlist elements who continue to dislike and even move against Ahmadinejad, even if they did not make their stand yesterday. What now for the Larijanis --- Ali still as Speaker of the Parliament, Sadegh as head of judiciary --- and their allies? What now for high-profile MPs like Ali Motahari and Ahmad Tavakoli, who have bitterly challenged the President and his inner circle since mid-July? What now for those who saw the in-fighting at Ministries like Intelligence as an attempt by Ahmadinejad (and the IRGC) to expand their control and who didn't take too kindly to it?

(And, lest we forget, our question from last week is not resolved, despite Ayatollah Khamenei's open intervention to assist with confirmation of the Cabinet, "What now for the Supreme Leader?")

For us, the post-election crisis has never been a matter of a single, dramatic showdown between the regime and its opponents but a series of waves, inside and outside the Government. There was the immediate wave of mass demonstrations (which were renewed at points throughout July), the wave of resistance to Ahmadinejad's inauguration, the wave of response to the detentions and trials, fed both by Mehdi Karroubi's initiatives and by conservative/principlist disquiet, and the wave that led up to yesterday's vote.

Clearly, the wave of resistance to an Ahmadinejad Cabinet is now dissipated. Indeed, I think it is now fair to drop the label "post-election crisis". Despite all those who will never believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 12 June vote, he has now gone through all the bureaucratic motions of re-assuming office. However, there is still a "legitimacy crisis". Just because you're President doesn't mean that folks accept your authority.

In part, that "legitimacy crisis" may not be as prominent because the Green wave is in a bit of a lull. Ramadan plays its part here, as well as battle fatigue and the disruption of the opposition's organisation. The leadership of Mir Hossein Mousavi in particular is now primarily on Facebook pages, given the shutdown of his websites, the detentions of some of his top advisors, and restrictions on his movements.

But, whether as an outcome of these difficulties or as a measured strategy, the Green movement has now set out its next resurgence. On 18 September, Qods (Jerusalem) Day, the plan is to assemble as Hashemi Rafsanjani speaks at Friday prayers in Tehran.

OK, but that's two weeks away, and there's no guarantee that the movement will produce a mass show of resistance (or even that Rafsanjani, given his withdrawal from prayers in mid-August, will appear), right? Of course, but that scepticism in turn discounts that tensions continue within the regime.

At the risk of repeating our "Iranians love chess" cliche too often, one strong move does not mean checkmate. And the President and his allies still have a glaring weakness in their defences. Look at the list of waves above. The one that has always been crashing ashore since mid-July has been the criticism of the post-election crackdown through detentions, beatings and abuses, confessions, and trials. And that wave was not put out to sea with the Parliament vote.

It is possible that Ahmadinejad has come through the worst of this. There was a signal this week that the post-election criticism of Mohsen Rezaei, despite the death of his campaign advisor's son in detention, may be muted by putting Rezaei at the head of State broadcasting. The Supreme Leader may be satisfied that he made his point when he "closed" Kahrizak prison. Sadegh Larijani may be content to take his place at judiciary and not challenge the continuing trials; alternatively, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC may accept that they should now curb the crackdown and let proceedings take a lower profile, with releases of some prisoners and "moderate" sentences for others. Ayatollah Khamenei may even announce an end-of-Ramadan "amnesty" for iconic detainees such as Saeed Hajjarian and Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

But, as of now, we don't know. And there's a twist in the tale.

Actually, it's not a twist. It's a storyline that has been here all the time. As EA's Chris Emery and our sharp-eyed/sharp-minded readers have noted, post-election events have added to the strains on the Iranian economy. The post-election crisis brought Government to a standstill and exposed problems in Iran's infrastructure. Of course, Ahmadinejad and his new Cabinet may try to stabilise or even jump-start the economy, but the President's record in this area hasn't been too good.

And that is where "post-election crisis" turns into "legitimacy crisis". It's one thing for an activist to get angry over a stolen vote; another for a "non-activist" to get angry because transport doesn't work, food is more expensive, housing isn't assured, and the lights go out.

If that is the case, if there is a wave of resentment over the economy that happens to arise at the same time as the ongoing waves over the political authority of the President and his allies (and I write that in full cognizance of the opinion of EA colleagues and some of our readers that the Revolutionary Guard has shown its muscle in recent weeks).....

Welcome back to the storm.

The Latest from Iran (2 September): The Votes on the Cabinet

NEW Iran: Busted! Would-be Minister of Science Rewrites His "Ph.D."
The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Ripples of Debate Continue

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2000 GMT: Here is That Split in the Judiciary. For those who don't think there is a battle going on within the establishment, take note that pro-Ahmadinejad and anti-Ahmadinejad officials are praying in separate parts of the judiciary building.

1740 GMT: Checking the Scorecard on the Nuclear Talks.

What We Predicted (1145 GMT): "The foreign policy story to watch today is not in Germany, where there will be a ritual consideration of the "5+1" powers of Iran's reported new proposal over its nuclear programme but no substantive developments (because, if Iran has really submitted a new proposal, time will be needed to examine it)."

What Happened (The Statement): "World powers pressed Iran on Wednesday to meet them for talks on its disputed nuclear program before a United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month.

Volker Stanzel, political director in the German foreign ministry, made the comments in a statement after chairing a meeting with his counterparts from Russia, China, the United States, France and Britain to discuss Iran's nuclear program."

What Happened (Translation): Nothing.

EA Scorecard: Bullseye!

1545 GMT: Another Story to Watch. We saw a report earlier today but held off pending verification. The Assembly of Members of Parliament, made up of former MPs, was due to see opposition leaders including Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karoubi at its general meeting.

The gathering was cancelled, however, after pressure from authorities, including -- according to one MP --- threatening phone calls from security forces.

Some of you may remember that last month some former MPs issued a call, invoking the Iranian Constitution, for reconsideration of the Supreme Leader's position.

1535 GMT: More on that supposed Supreme Leader letter urging MPs to confirm the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. It is being reported that one of the Ministerial nominees is circulating the letter.

1320 GMT: The reformist Parleman News has a useful summary of today's discussions of the Cabinet nominees. The headline claim is that the Supreme Leader has unofficially asked Parliament to give its approval, a step that would support our interpretation of a working Khamenei-Ahmadinejad alliance (0730 GMT) until the Cabinet is established.

1315 GMT: The Mystery of the Dismissed Ambassadors. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has downplayed the report that President Ahmadinejad has dismissed 40 ambassadors for "supporting rioters" after the elections. Spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said, "Changing the ambassadors, the heads of our overseas offices and consulates is a natural affair that happens every three years."

1310 GMT: Press TV has now posted an English-language summary of the breaking story that President Obama has sent a second letter to the Supreme Leader. It adds from Tabnak that Obama's first letter, sent four months ago, was answered: ""The Leader at the time replied to the letter by providing argumentation."

1240 GMT: The leader of the reformist bloc in Parliament, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, has responded to the claims by the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, that former President Khatami and other reformist leaders have tried to topple the Supreme Leader (0830 GMT). Tabesh said that the Revolutionary Guard "should be a non-partisan organization and those who gave the permision to IRGC to enter election politics, making arrests and obtain the 'confessions' should be prosecuted".

1230 GMT: Parliamentary Notes. Reuters reports that the nominee for Minister of Science, Research, and Technology, Kanesh Daneshjou, has faced criticism in the Majlis. The rumour that Daneshjou is claiming a false Ph.D. from a British university does not appear to be the problem; rather, it is his role running the Interior Ministry's election headquarters. Comments have included, "Considering the heat in the society after the presidential election, there are doubts whether the nomination of Mr. Daneshjou will help to cool down the society or whether it increases the heat," and "The question is whether the university environment will accept a renowned political and security figure like you as a scientific figure?"

1205 GMT: Another Delay. State media are now indicating, and the lack of news supports this, that votes of confidence in Parliament will be on Thursday.

1145 GMT: The Foreign Policy Story to Watch Today. It is not in Germany, where there will be a ritual consideration of the "5+1" powers of Iran's reported new proposal over its nuclear programme but no substantive developments (because, if Iran has really submitted a new proposal, time will be needed to examine it).

Instead, the story could well be in Tabnak, which is claiming that President Obama has sent a second letter to the Supreme Leader. The content is not known, but speculation is that this is another invitation to open up paths for dialogue.

Notice, however, that the path has cut out the "middle man" of President Ahadminejad and gone straight to the top.

1000 GMT: Mehdi Karoubi has written to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri expressed his deep appreciation for Montazeri's support during the post-election conflict, in particular, the Ayatollah's expressions of regret and condemnation of attacks on protestors and detainees.

0830 GMT: Piling on the Pressure. Yet more confirmation of the Ahmadinejad-Revolutionary Guard to break the opposition: the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has claimed that “the unpublished section of the confessions of the prisoners” indicate that former President Mohammad Khatami and other reformist leaders were trying to topple the Supreme Leader and the regime with post-election unrest.

(The stridently pro-Government Fars News features this as their lead story.)

0730 GMT: We've had another look at the story from yesterday of behind-the-scenes meetings between Ahmadinejad representatives, pro-Government senior clerics, and MPs to ensure approval of the President's ministers. Here is the translation from the National Iranian American Council:

There have been contacts from the office of the Supreme Leader and people close to Ahmadinejad to MPs. In one case, Commander of the Armed Forces Hassan Firouzabadi called some MPs into his office.

One MP told Rouydad [newspaper]: “They have contacted Representatives and they want Representatives to approve all of the Cabinet members. Their goal is to show, through a high vote of approval of all Ministers, that their power is great and that the influence of post-election protests has been negligible.”

When asked who did the contacting, this MP said, “The contacts came from the Supreme Leader’s office and some people close to Ahmadinejad, and Maj. Gen Hassan Firouzabadi even called some Representatives into his office.”

...The decision to put pressure on MPs to approve Cabinet officials was made last week in a meeting with the presence of Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Mehdi Taeb, Morteza Moghtadaie, and some of Ahmadinejad’s deputies and some MPs including Gholamali Haddad-Adel, Mehdi Koochakzadeh, Hamid Rasaie, Movid Hosseini-Sadr, and Kazem Mousavi, as well the heads of two pro-government newspapers.

"Contacts from the office of the Supreme Leader". Is it safe to presume that, despite the weeks of bickering between Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad over political and legal issues, the two will be firmly allied to ensure the Cabinet is put in place?

0555 GMT: As we noted yesterday, the internal story in Iran is likely to be pushed aside by the international media in favour of the "5+1" talks on the Iranian nuclear programme in Germany today. This coverage was assured after Iran trumpeted that it was going to be put a new proposals to the powers (the US, UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany).

A separate feature isn't needed at this point. Here's the read: the date "15 September" has been floating around as the cut-off point for US engagement with Iran. While that date has been more a creation of White House spin and media speculation rather than a policy decision, Tehran needed to do something if it wanted to release the public pressure. That need is greater because the Ahmadinejad Government --- unlike the nuke-obsessed US media --- needs to concentrate on its internal position. So the day before a major international gathering, the Iranians say, "We'll talk," but give the appearance of doing it on their terms with a supposed new package.

0545 GMT: We held off from publishing this story yesterday, as it felt --- despite its apparent publication in Fars News --- like a rumour, but it has now been repreated by several Iranian sources.

President Ahmadinejad has apparently dismissed 40 ambassadors from their posts to bring "fundamental correction in the [Foreign] Ministry". The claim is that these ambassadors supported the Green movement and dissidents abroad and will be replaced with "specialists devoted to the bases of revolution".

If true, the action is far from unprecedented: soon after his initial election in 2005, Ahmadinejad recalled Iranian ambassadors from major posts, including London and Paris. In the current context, it should be seen as part of the President's efforts to assert his control over key ministries, including the judiciary and the Ministry of Intelligence as well as Foreign Affairs.

0530 GMT: After three days of debate, the Iranian Parliament is convening this morning for its votes of confidence in President Ahmadinejad's 21 Cabinet nominees. It's still anyone's guess how many will be rejected. Estimates of up to 7 had been put about.

News from the chamber yesterday continued to be mixed for the Government. MPs accepted without reservation Ahmadinejad's selection for Minister of Defence, Ahmad Vahidi, and the nominees for Justice and Agriculture apparently escaped criticism. However, the nominee for Welfare,  Fatehmeh Ajorloo, like another proposed female Minister, Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi (Health), was attacked for her lack of knowledge.

The Latest from Iran (1 September): The Ripples of Debate Continue

UPDATED Iran: Law & Politics – Misinterpreting Mortazavi
NEW Iran Special: Taking Apart the Regime’s Defenses (Shahryar v. Afrasiabi)
The Latest from Iran (31 August): The Debate over the Cabinet

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2010 GMT: On a relatively quiet evening, the Comedy Moment of the Day comes in. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, explained that the reason for the "quick confessions" of political detainees was the “humane and Islamic” behaviour of the Revolutionary Guard.

1810 GMT: Scoop of the Day. The Times of London "Terror suspect Saeed Jalili set to become Ahmadinejad's Defence Minister". (Saeed Jalili is the secretary of the National Security Council. The nominee for Defence Minister is Ahmad Vahidi, who is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Argentina.)

1720 GMT: During this lull before tomorrow's votes of confidence, here's one story, originally in Farda News, to make you go Hmmm.....

Mohsen Kouhkan, a spokesman for the Majlis governing body, said lawmakers were asked to turn down any dinner invitation other than those coming from parliament or the presidential office until after the vote-of-confidence session for the 10th cabinet has taken place.

“As minister designates and lawmakers may be invited to Iftar [breaking of the daily Ramadan fast] parties held outside Parliament, the Majlis governing body has sent a text message to all lawmakers asking them to refrain from participating in any dinner parties outside of parliament and the presidential office,” he said.

1705 GMT: The office of Mehdi Karroubi has published an open letter declaring that Saeed Mortazavi, then Tehran Chief Prosecutor and now Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General, is responsible for any suffering of abused detainees or their families. Karroubi has written the director of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting asking for airtime for his representative to present evidence of abuse.

1655 GMT: One disturbing story to note. As Iranian universities prepare for the start of the academic year, Gooya reports that dozens of Tehran University students have been summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning.

1630 GMT: We're back after an afternoon break for an EA staffer's birthday but, to be honest, there's very little to update on the domestic front, since the votes of confidence on Cabinet appointments will be tomorrow rather than today. Instead, the two stories causing chatter amongst "mainstream" media are on the international front: the Iran Government's announcement that President Ahmadinejad will attend this month's United Nations General Assembly (which isn't news at all, since he was always intending to go) and the declaration by the Government that it has "prepared an updated nuclear package" for Wednesday's meeting of the "5+1" countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany) in Frankfurt on Wednesday.

And to be honest, while the nuclear proposal will dominate media headlines over the next 24 hours (since US media, in particular, find the script easier with the Nuclear Threat story than with the complex politics inside Iran), it isn't news either. The Iranian Government has been sending out signals for a few weeks that it might like to sit down and chat about the nuclear programme, not as much as a response to Western threats of sanctions as much as a diversion from internal conflict.

1040 GMT: The BBC reports, "[Nominee for Minister of Defence] Ahmad Vahidi faced no opposition from MPs on the third day of a debate on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's choices for his new cabinet."

1030 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has met with the three-member panel appointed by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to discuss his evidence of detainee abuse. The Judiciary First Deputy Chief Ebrahim Raeesi, in a subsequent interview, assured that Larijani had ordered all laws and judiciary regualtions upheld" in a full investigation which ensured the rights of detainees.

0930 GMT: Reports are emerging of secret meetings last week between Ahmadinejad's office, pro-Government senior clerics, and "principlist" MPs. Allegations are being made that the President's camp has been using bribery to assure votes of confidence in his Cabinet nominations.

0900 GMT: An Urgent Correction. Press TV's report (see 0640 GMT) is wrong: Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi did NOT get a vote of confidence as Minister of Health. All voting will take place tomorrow.

0830 GMT: In addition to the Ruholamini death-in-detention story (see 0535 GMT), featured from The New York Times to CNN, international media are featuring the testimony of a woman ("Minoo") about rape in prison. France 24 carries the story and video.

0640 GMT: Press TV reports that Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi has been given a vote of confidence as Minister of Health. The approval came despite reports of widespread opposition to all of Ahmadinejad's three female nominees. Fars News also concentrates on the remarks of Vahid-Dastjerdi to the Majlis.

0535 GMT: We are now caught in a period, with displays of mass opposition constrained during Ramadan, of trying to look below the ripples on the surface of the regime. Once again, today's first place of observation will be the Parliament, where discussions of individual Cabinet nominees are due to end in votes of confidence. However, as the complications of the appointment of Saeed Mortazavi and the speculation over the statements and initial actions of Sadegh Larijani have illustrated (see separate entry and yesterday's updates), significant (if still inconclusive) changes are occurring in locations like the judiciary.

There were actually signs of a reconciliation yesterday between the Supreme Leader and the President, through the rhetoric of a war against "soft power". The nominee for Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi, put the case for a new strategy and instruments to the Parliament yesterday. As long as this does not descend into renewed, specific arrests against supposed planners of "velvet revolution" --- measures that the Supreme Leader warned against last week --- but remains at the level of vigilance against opposition, there may be an emerging compromise between Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad.

Do not mistake this, however, for a resolution. Detentions, confessions, and abuses are still the political Achilles heel of this regime. Many in the media this morning are headlining yesterday's leaked confirmation that Mohsen Ruholamini (pictured), the son of a key "conservative" advisor to the Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, died from beatings in detention rather than "meningitis". Behind those headlines are a much more significant story: Ruholamini's death galvanised opposition to Ahmadinejad from within the Establishment. Further revelations or even suspicions may ensure that the President can never be secure in his claim of authority.