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Entries in Detainees (4)

Sunday
Sep272009

Transcripts: Secretary of Defense Gates on CNN, ABC

Iran’s Nukes: Did Gates Just Complicate the Obama Position?

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GATESRobert Gates on CNN's "State of the Union"

JOHN KING: Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us.

We learned as the week came to an end about a new underground secret Iranian nuclear bunker, and the president described it this way. “The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.”

Tell us more about what we know, and do you have any doubt Iran was using this facility or planned to use this facility to develop nuclear weapons?

GATES: We’ve been watching the construction of this facility for quite some time, and one of the reasons that we waited to make it public was to ensure that our conclusions about its purpose were right.

This is information shared among ourselves, the British, the French, as we’ve gone along. And I think that, certainly, the intelligence people have no doubt that this is an illicit nuclear facility, if only because the Iranians kept it a secret. If they wanted it for peaceful nuclear purposes, there’s no reason to put it so deep underground, no reason to be deceptive about it, keep it a secret for a protracted period of time.

KING: Take me back in time. You say you’ve known about it for some time, dating back into the Bush administration. You, of course, were serving in the Bush administration. How far back?

GATES: Well, it’s hard for me to remember, but at least a couple of years we’ve been watching it.

KING: At least a couple of years. Because the former vice president, Dick Cheney, is on record as saying in the closing months of the administration, he was an advocate for possibly using military action against some of these Iranian sites. Was this one of his targets, this area we’ve just learned about?

GATES: Well, I think I’ll just let his statement speak for itself.

KING: All right. We know -- and correct me if I’m wrong, please -- that you were skeptical about that, in fact, opposed to that. You didn’t think that was the way to go. Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has said publicly many times how skeptical he is about the military options here. I just want you to help an American out there who says, we can’t trust Ahmadinejad, this has been going on for years. We don’t think sanctions will work. Why don’t we do something about it? Explain to that person out there, whether they work in the United States Congress or whether it’s just an average American, when you look at the contingencies that you have available to you and the president has available to him, are there any good military options when it comes to these deep underground facilities?

GATES: Well, without getting into any specifics, I would just say we obviously don’t take any options off the table.

My view has been that there has been an opportunity through the use of diplomacy and economic sanctions to persuade the Iranians to change their approach to nuclear weapons.

The reality is, there is no military option that does anything more than buy time. The estimates are one to three years or so. And the only way you end up not having a nuclear capable Iran is for the Iranian government to decide that their security is diminished by having those weapons as opposed to strengthened.

So I think, as I say, while you don’t take options off the table, I think there’s still room left for diplomacy. The P5 plus 1 [US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China] will be meeting with Iran here shortly. The Iranians are in a very bad spot now because of this deception, in terms of all of the great powers. And there obviously is the opportunity for severe additional sanctions. And I think we have the time to make that work.

KING: I want to get to that diplomacy in just a minute, but when you shared this intelligence with others, I want to ask you specifically about the case of Israel, which you know in the past has been very skeptical about the diplomatic route. And many have thought perhaps Israel would take matters into its own hands because it is in the neighborhood. What did the Israeli government, specifically the Israeli military, say when they learned of this intelligence, about this new second facility?

GATES: Well, Israel, obviously, thinks of the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel. We’ve obviously been in close touch with them, as our ally and friend, and continue to urge them to let this diplomatic and economic sanctions path play out.

KING: And as that goes forward, President Sarkozy was quite skeptical and he was very clear, this year, December, he wants to see progress or else we’ll see tougher sanctions. From your perspective, what sanctions would have the most teeth, would work?

GATES: Well, there are a variety of options still available, including sanctions on banking, particularly sanctions on equipment and technology for their oil and gas industry. I think there’s a pretty rich list to pick from, actually.

KING: If you look at that list, though, in some of those cases, you’ll find the suppliers, gasoline, imports, some of the equipment and technology would be China, would you not?

GATES: China’s participation is clearly important.

KING: And the early indications are they will or won’t help?

GATES: Well, I haven’t had -- I haven’t had an opportunity to talk to the president or those who were with him in Pittsburgh, so I don’t know the nature of the conversations that they had with the Chinese there, but I do have the sense that the Chinese take this pretty seriously.

KING: Let me ask you about the situation in Iran, as this diplomacy goes forward. You’re the defense secretary now. You have been the director of Central Intelligence. When you look at post- election Iran, all the talk of turmoil, reports of tension between Ahmadinejad and the clerics, Ahmadinejad and the reforms, is the water bubbling or is the water boiling in the sense that you just see trouble or do you see potential seeds of revolution?

GATES: Well, I guess I would say it’s simmering. It’s clear in the aftermath of the election, that there are some fairly deep fissures in Iranian society and politics, and probably even in the leadership. And frankly, this is one of the reasons why I think additional and especially severe economic sanctions could have some real impact, because we know that the sanctions that have already been placed on the country have had an impact. The unemployment among youth is about 40 percent. They have some real serious problems, especially with the younger people.

So I think that we are seeing some changes or some divisions in the Iranian leadership and in society that we really haven’t seen in the 30 years since the revolution.

KING: And if you think sanctions work and this is a clear violation -- they hid this from the world, they hid this from everybody, in clear violation of their commitments -- why wait? Why not slap tougher sanctions now? Why wait until the end of the year?

GATES: Well, the opportunity exists in the October 1st meeting and over the next few weeks to see if we can leverage publicizing this additional illegal facility and activity to leverage the Iranians to begin to make some concessions, to begin to abide by the U.N. Security Council resolutions.

GATES: I think we are all sensitive to the possibility of the Iranians trying to run the clock out on us. And so nobody thinks of this as an open-ended process.

KING: And so, lastly, on this point, this facility, obviously, is not on-line yet. It is under construction, not on-line. So Iran’s capability in terms of being ready to perhaps have a nuclear bomb, in the past, the public statements have been a year to three away. Is that still operational?

GATES: That would be my view.

KING: The defense secretary, Robert Gates.

We’ll be back in just a moment with another big decision facing the secretary and the president, whether to send thousands more U.S. troops into Afghanistan. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: We’re back with the defense secretary, Robert Gates.

Very momentous decision. Recommendation you will have to make to the president, the president will have to make to the nation about whether to send thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of more troops into Afghanistan. I want to start with a threshold question. Do you have full confidence in the commanding general, Stanley McChrystal, on the ground in Afghanistan now?

GATES: Absolutely. I think we have in General McChrystal the very best commanding officer we could possibly have there.

KING: Does the president share that?

GATES: I believe so.

KING: And then is it a logical extension then to go on to say, if you have such full confidence, that if General McChrystal says, I need 40,000 more troops, he will get them?

GATES: I think we are in the middle of a review. The president, when he made his decisions on strategy in Afghanistan at the end of March, said that after the Afghan elections, that we would review where we are and review the strategy.

We now, in addition to that, have General McChrystal’s assessment of the situation. He found a situation in Afghanistan that is more serious than we had thought and that he had thought before going out there. So we’re in the middle of a process of evaluating, really, the decisions the president made in late March to say, have we got the strategy right? And once we confidently have the strategy right, then we’ll address the question of additional resource...

(CROSSTALK)

KING: As you know, some of your friends on Capitol Hill are saying, why wait, in the sense of because of the ominous warnings, General McChrystal sounds, in his report, among them, this: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near term, over the next 12 months, while Afghan security capability matures, risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.”

If the situation is that dire and he believes he needs more troops, why wait?

GATES: Well, first of all, I would like to remember -- remind people that the debate within the Bush administration over the surge took about three months, from October to December 2006.

It’s very important that we get this right and there is always a dialogue between the chiefs -- the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Centcom commander, and our commander in the field. We had the same kind of dialogue with General Odierno about the timing of pulling our combat units out of Iraq. And the conclusion of all of that was actually for General Odierno to take some additional risk. And it has proved to work very well.

So the question is, there has got to be some dialogue between the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the commander of Central Command, as well as General McChrystal, and then a discussion among the president’s national security team.

KING: You know the conversation in town,though, some, understand the surge debate, find this one rather remarkable in the sense that you now have General McChrystal, part of his report has leaked out, saying he needs more troops. Admiral Mullen has testified to Congress recently he believes we’re going to need more troops. Some see an effort to almost put the president in a box before he deals with the other issues.

If you have the military, the admiral and the generals on record saying we need more troops, does the president really have a choice to say no?

GATES: Well, I think the president always has a choice. He’s the commander-in-chief.

The reality is, do we need additional forces? How many additional forces? And to do what?

And it’s the “to do what?” that I think we need to make sure we have confidence we understand before making recommendations to the president.

KING: Help me on that point, because there’s a lot of questions about the legitimacy of the election. Did President Karzai commit fraud to the level at which he perhaps has stolen the election? The political vacuum could be months. You may have to make your decision uncertain as to the political leadership in Afghanistan unless you wait. There could be a runoff. There could be contestments (ph) and challenges. Would you prefer some sort of power-sharing arrangement to move past this vacuum?

GATES: Well, I don’t think it’s up to us to tell the Afghans how to organize their government. The reality is that you still have an election process playing out. You have both the Afghan and the international election commissions evaluating the ballots. And if they come to a conclusion that there was a real winner, then I think it has legitimacy for both the international and the national -- and the Afghan audience.

But I think, above all, what’s important is whether or not the government of Afghanistan has legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghans. All of the information that we have available to us today indicates that continues to be the case.

KING: Let’s turn to the debate back home. You try to stay of the politics, but it does influence what happens in this town. As you know, a growing number of people on Capitol Hill want a clearer exit strategy. They want benchmarks. They want to know where the end is. Some have even said -- a few, but some have said we need a time line to get U.S. troops out. And now a liberal organization that was very vocal in the Iraq political debate is urging its members to call the president, e-mail the White House and say, don’t send tens of thousands more U.S. troops to be stuck in a quagmire.

Is Afghanistan a quagmire?

GATES: I don’t think so, and I think that with a general like McChrystal, it won’t become one. I think that we are being very careful to look at this as we go along. We’ve put out metrics so that we can measure whether or not we’re making progress. And if we’re not making progress, then we’re prepared to adjust our strategy, just as we’re looking at whether adjustments are needed right now.

So I think that the notion of time lines and exit strategies and so on, frankly, I think, would all be a strategic mistake. The reality is, failure in Afghanistan would be a huge setback for the United States. Taliban and Al Qaida as far as they’re concerned, defeated one superpower. For them to be seen to defeat a second, I think would have catastrophic consequences in terms of energizing the extremist movement, Al Qaida recruitment, operations, fundraising, and so on.

I think it would be a huge setback for the United States. I think what we need is a strategy that we think can be successful and then to pursue it, and pursue it with confidence and resolution.

KING: You mentioned the history, and you’re a student of history, and you’re on the record talking about how this did become a quagmire for the Soviets, who had about 120,000 troops in Afghanistan. And you have said many times the Afghan people began to view them as occupiers, not as friends.

Where’s the line for the United States so that you don’t cross that very same line?

GATES: Well, I think the analogy of the situation with the Soviets really doesn’t hold. The Soviets’ presence in Afghanistan was condemned by virtually every country in the world. They conducted a war of terror against the Afghans. They probably killed 1 million Afghans, made 5 million of them into refugees, tried to impose an alien social and cultural change on the country.

So the situations are completely different. And I think that the -- I think the Afghans continue to see us as their ally and partner.

KING: General McChrystal, in an interview that will air on “60 Minutes” tonight, talks about the breadth and the geographic spread of the violence in Afghanistan. He says, “It’s a little more than I would have gathered.”

We’ve been at this nearly eight years. Why are we still surprised?

GATES: Well, I will tell you, I think that the strategy that the president put forward in late March is the first real strategy we have had for Afghanistan since the early 1980s. And that strategy was more about the Soviet Union than it was about Afghanistan.

KING: You served in the Bush administration. That’s a pretty broad damnation of the Bush strategy.

GATES: Well, the reality is, we were fighting a holding action. We were very deeply engaged in Iraq. I increased -- I extended the 10th Mountain Division the first month I was on this job in January of ‘07. I extended -- I put another brigade into Afghanistan in the spring of 2007. And that’s all we had to put in there. Every -- we were -- we were too stretched to do more. And I think we did not have the kind of comprehensive strategy that we have now.

KING: And if it comes to the point of sending more, this time, if the president agrees and General McChrystal gets -- maybe it’s 20,000, 30,000, or 40,000, do we have the troops now? If you needed 40,000, could you find it?

GATES: Well, I think, if the president were to decide to approve additional combat forces, they really probably could not begin to flow until some time in January.

KING: We’re about out of time. I want to ask you a couple quick questions in closing. One is, do you see any chance now, because of the delays in the political problems, that the administration will keep its promise to close Gitmo, the Guantanamo Bay detention center, in one year, as promised?

GATES: Well, I think -- I think it has proven more complicated than anticipated. I will be the first to tell you that, when the president-elect’s national security new team met in Chicago on December 7th, I was one of those who argued for a firm deadline. Because I said that’s the only way you move the bureaucracy in Washington.

And you have to extend that date, if at least you have a strong plan, showing you’re making progress in that direction, then it shouldn’t be a problem to extend it. And we’ll just see whether that has to happen or not.

KING: And lastly, you served eight presidents. What makes this one unique, or is there anything unique when it comes to these decisions of war and peace?

GATES: He is very analytical. He’s very deliberate about the way he goes through things. He wants to understand everything. He delves very deeply into these issues. I’m not going to get into comparing the different presidents. I very much enjoy working for this one.

KING: Mr. Secretary, thank for your time.

GATES: Thank you.

Robert Gates on ABC's This Week

STEPHANOPOULOS: And we begin with the secretary of defense, Robert Gates.

Welcome back to “This Week.”

GATES: Thank you.

STEPHANOPOULOS: National security was front and center all week long. Let’s begin with Afghanistan. We saw the leak of General McChrystal’s review, and he concluded that the United States has about 12 months to reverse Taliban momentum and that, without new troops, the strategy laid out by the president is likely to fail.

And I want to show what the president said back in March when he laid out that strategy. He called it “new and comprehensive.”

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: This marks the conclusion of a careful policy review. My administration has heard from our military commanders, as well as our diplomats. We’ve consulted with the Afghan and Pakistani governments, with our partners and our NATO allies, and with other donors and international organizations. We’ve also worked closely with members of Congress here at home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Now, this was clearly a carefully considered strategy. And now the president is telling us -- he told me last week that he can’t approve General McChrystal’s request until we get the strategy right. Why the second thoughts on the strategy?

GATES: I don’t think there are second thoughts so much as, you know, when he made his decisions at the end of March, he also announced that he would -- we would be reviewing the policy and the strategy after the elections...

STEPHANOPOULOS: But he said the tool was in the tactics, not the strategy.

GATES: Well, I -- I think that he -- he clearly felt that we would have to reassess where we are after the election. Now, in addition to having a flawed election in Afghanistan, we now have General McChrystal’s assessment.

When the president made his comments at -- at the end of March, his decisions, obviously, General McChrystal was not in place. We now have his assessment. He has found the situation on the ground in Afghanistan worse than he had -- than he anticipated.

And so I think what the president is now saying is, in light of the election, in light of McChrystal’s more concerning assessment of the situation on the ground, have we got the strategy right, were the decisions in -- that he made at the end of March the right ones? Do we need to make some adjustments in light of what we’ve found?

And once we’ve decided whether or not to make adjustments in the strategy, then we will consider the additional resources.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But did -- but didn’t General McChrystal take these problems of the election into account? He didn’t even deliver his report until August 30th, which was after the elections. Dennis Blair, the head of national intelligence, said back in February or March that we could foresee that there would be problems with this election.

GATES: Well, I think -- I think that the potential magnitude of the problems in the election really didn’t become apparent until the vote count began in early September. So -- so I think it was really after he submitted his -- his assessment.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So now we have a real dilemma. Does that mean that the United States is re-thinking whether it can even -- whether it can bolster President Karzai’s government, whether we have to give up on it?

GATES: Well, I -- you know, the Afghan people have gone to the polls, and we have the two election commissions -- one internal, one international -- that could still come to conclusions, even if they throw out some fraudulent ballots or a number of fraudulent ballots, that there was a clear winner.

The key is whether the Afghans believe that their government has legitimacy. And everything that I’ve seen in the intelligence and elsewhere indicates that remains the case.

STEPHANOPOULOS: It does seem, though, that you’re caught in a dilemma right now. You’ve got your commanding general on the ground who’s given you this report. He’s said that troops -- more troops are necessary or you risk failure.

That report has been endorsed by the head of Central Command, David Petraeus. Admiral Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, went to Congress and said we probably need more troops.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Yet the president is saying that we need to think about the strategy right now. And it really creates the impression of a rift between the civilian leadership, you, as secretary of Defense, the president, and the uniformed military.

GATES: I don’t think that’s the case at all. I talked with -- I had an extensive conversation on the telephone with both General McChrystal and General Petraeus on -- on Wednesday. General McChrystal was very explicit in saying that he thinks this assessment, this review that’s going on right now is exactly the right thing to do. He obviously doesn’t want it to be open-ended or be a protracted kind of thing...

STEPHANOPOULOS: How long will it take?

GATES: Well, I -- you know, I -- it’s not going to take -- I think it -- it’s a matter of a few weeks. And people should remember that the debate within the Bush administration on the surge lasted three months, from October to December 2006.

So I think it’s important to make sure we’re confident that we have the right strategy in place, and then we can make the decisions on additional forces.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Yet the clock really does seem to be ticking, again, to go back to General McChrystal’s report. He says that if we don’t turn the tide in the next 12 months, we risk failure. So every week that goes by puts the soldiers who are on the ground at risk, doesn’t it?

GATES: But having the -- having the wrong strategy would put even more soldiers at risk. So I think it’s important to get the strategy right and then we can make the resources decision.

As I say, I don’t expect this to be protracted process. The reality is that, even if the president did decide to approve additional combat forces going into Afghanistan, the first forces couldn’t arrive until January.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So what are the options right now? You have said in the past that you didn’t believe what some people are recommending -- stepping up drone attacks, stepping up missile attacks, using special forces -- you don’t believe or haven’t believed in the past that that’s sufficient to contain the Taliban.

GATES: I think that most people who -- the people that I’ve talked to in the Pentagon who are the experts on counterterrorism essentially say that counterterrorism is only possible if you have the kind of intelligence that allows you to target the terrorists. And the only way you get that intelligence is by being on the ground, getting information from people like the Afghans or, in the case of Iraq, the Iraqis.

And so you can’t do this from -- from a distance or remotely, in the view of virtually all of the experts that I’ve talked to.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So if that -- if that’s not going to work, and then you have General McChrystal who said in his report that you need a full-blown counterinsurgency campaign, counterinsurgency is the answer, that certainly seems to be endorsed by General Petraeus. Is there a middle ground between those two poles?

GATES: Well, I think -- I think people are -- are, frankly, so focused on -- on the comment that -- in General McChrystal’s report about additional resources that they’re neglecting to look at the rest of what’s in his report and that -- where he talks very explicitly about the fact that -- that a preoccupation with the resources or with additional forces, if you don’t have the strategy right, is a mistake.

And -- and he, as I say, he understands this process that’s underway. But -- but what he talks about in most of that assessment is not resources, but a different way of using U.S. forces and coalition forces in Afghanistan.

It talks about accelerating the growth of the Afghan national security forces. It spends a lot of time talking about how we stay on side with the Afghan people. This is mostly what McChrystal’s assessment is about.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But it’s a resource-intensive strategy, isn’t it? He says that the troops have to probably be more lightly armed and engage more with the population. And it’s hard to ignore that stark conclusion: Success is not ensured by additional forces alone, as you point out, but continued under-resourcing will likely cause failure. Failure.

GATES: Well, that’s what we’re discussing. And how do we avoid that?

STEPHANOPOULOS: And, as you said, you hope to have this done in a few weeks and you want to avoid failure, as well, but the president has not made any -- any decision at all on resources? Has he -- has he ruled it out?

GATES: No, I haven’t even given him General McChrystal’s request for resources. I have the -- I -- I’m receiving the -- the report. I’m going to sit on it until I think -- or the president thinks -- it’s appropriate to bring that into the discussion of the national security principles.

STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s what -- General McChrystal says we have to have more troops to avoid failure. Where we’ve had a lack of clarity is on what success means in Afghanistan. You pointed out at the beginning of this year what it was, and he said we’re not -- we shouldn’t expect a Valhalla in Afghanistan.

The president’s special envoy, Richard Holbrooke, was asked for his definition of success last month, and here’s what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOLBROOKE: I would say this about defining success in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the simplest sense, the Supreme Court test for another issue, we’ll know it when we see it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHANOPOULOS: Is that good enough?

GATES: Well, I think -- I think we know it when we see it, and we see it in Iraq. I think that success in Afghanistan looks a great deal like success in Iraq, in this respect, that the Afghan national security forces increasingly take the lead in protecting their own territory and going after the insurgents and protecting their own people. We withdraw to an over-watch situation and then we withdraw altogether.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Which first required a surge in Iraq.

GATES: It did require the surge. And that’s -- the issue that we will be looking at over the next several weeks -- the next couple of weeks or so -- is, do we have the right strategy?

And that includes the question of -- of, is the -- is McChrystal’s approach, in the view of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Central Command commander, the right approach? And if so, then what -- what would be the additional resources required?

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me turn to Iran. The president has put Iran on notice that they’re going to have to allow inspectors into this secret site which U.S. intelligence discovered for enriching uranium. President Ahmadinejad says that President Obama is mistaken and the United States owes Iran an apology. Is Iran going to get one?

GATES: Not a chance.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So what happens next? The president has said that this site is not configured for peaceful purposes. Now, the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate concluded -- of the U.S. government -- concluded that Iran had stopped its active nuclear weapons program in 2003. Does the president’s conclusion -- that this site is not configured for peaceful purposes -- mean that that intelligence estimate is no longer operative?

GATES: No, not necessarily. But what it does mean is that they had a covert site. They did not declare it. They didn’t -- if -- if this were a peaceful nuclear program, why didn’t they announce this site when they began to construct it? Why didn’t they allow IAEA inspectors in from the very beginning?

This -- this is part of a pattern of deception and lies on the part of the Iranians from the very beginning with respect to their nuclear program. So it’s no wonder that world leaders think that they have ulterior motives, that they have a plan to go forward with nuclear weapons. Otherwise, why would they do all this in such a deceptive manner?

STEPHANOPOULOS: U.S. intelligence had been tracking this site for quite some time before President Obama made it public. Is this the only secret site that we know of?

GATES: Well, I’m not going to -- I’m not going to get into that. I would just say that we’re watching very closely.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Does the United States government believe that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program?

GATES: I think that -- my personal opinion is that the Iranians have the intention of having nuclear weapons. I think the question of whether they have made a formal decision to -- to move toward the development of nuclear weapons is -- is in doubt.

STEPHANOPOULOS: The U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency said a couple of weeks ago that Iran is closer to what he called “breakout” capacity on developing a nuclear weapon. What does that mean exactly? And how much time -- if they do, indeed, have the intent -- how much time do we have before Iran has a nuclear weapons capacity?

GATES: Well, I think “breakout” in the -- in the ambassador’s terms means they have enriched enough uranium to a relatively low level that if they have another facility where they could enrich it more highly, that they have a -- they have enriched enough at a low level that they could, in essence, throw out all the IAEA inspectors, change the configuration of the -- of the cascades and the enrichment capability, and enrich it to a level where they could use it -- where they could make it into weapons-grade uranium.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And you say you personally have no doubt that they want weapons. Can that weapons program be stopped with sanctions?

GATES: I think that what is critical is persuading the Iranians that -- or leading them to the conclusion that their security will be diminished by trying to get nuclear weapons, rather than enhanced.

And I think that, because of the election, we see fissures in Iran that we have not seen before, not in the 30 years since the revolution. And I think that severe sanctions, if the Iranian -- that, first of all, we -- we have created a problem for the Iranians with this disclosure.

And so the first step is the meeting on October 1st with the 5+1 powers, with the Iranians, to see if they will begin to change their policy in a way that is satisfactory to -- to the great powers.

And then, if that doesn’t work, then I think you begin to move in the direction of severe sanctions. And their economic problems are difficult enough that -- that I think that severe sanctions would have the potential of -- of bringing them to change their -- their policies.

I think -- you asked me, how long do I think we have? I would say somewhere between one to three years.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me turn, finally, to Guantanamo. We have just a couple of minutes left. A major story in The Washington Post suggesting that the president’s deadline of January 22nd for closing Guantanamo will not be met, and White House officials tell me that at least some prisoners will still be in Guantanamo on January 22nd and beyond. How big a setback is that? And how long will it take to finally close Guantanamo?

GATES: When the president-elect met with his new national security team in Chicago on December 7th...

STEPHANOPOULOS: 2008.

GATES: ... last year, this issue was discussed, about closing Guantanamo and executive orders to do that and so on. And the question was, should we set a deadline? Should we pin ourselves down?

I actually was one of those who said we should, because I know enough from being around this town that, if you don’t put a deadline on something, you’ll never move the bureaucracy. But I also said, and then if we find we can’t get it done by that time but we have a good plan, then you’re in a position to say, “It’s going to take us a little longer, but we are moving in the direction of implementing the policy that the president set.” And I think that’s the position that...

STEPHANOPOULOS: That’s where we are. So the deadline of January 22nd will not be met?

GATES: It’s going to be tough.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And -- and how many prisoners will be there on January 22nd, do you know?

GATES: I don’t know the answer to that.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But, as you said, it’s going to be tough and likely will not be met?

GATES: We’ll see.

STEPHANOPOULOS: One -- one other deadline question. When you were working for President Bush, you used to keep a countdown clock on your desk, counting down the number of days you had left to serve. Is that clock still there?

GATES: No, I threw the clock out. It was obviously useless.

STEPHANOPOULOS: So you’re in for the long haul?

GATES: We’ll see. The president-elect and I, when we first discussed this, agreed to leave it open.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Secretary Gates, thank you very much for your time today.

GATES: Thanks a lot.
Tuesday
Sep152009

UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)

Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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UPDATE 15 September: We're now posting the translation provided by Evan Siegel on his site "Iran Rises". The original summary translation by an Iranian activist via Twitter follows below that:

KARROUBI323 Shahrivar 1388/September 14, 2009

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate.

To the Noble and History-Making Nation of Iran.

As you know, Your Servant during the days following the elections stormy events have passed these last three months for this country and this system. Letters of admonition and information were written one after the other to the officials in the hope that there would be an opening and lest rights be trampled and there be oppression and the suffering and sighs of the oppressed would seize our skirts and not release them. For as we know from religion’s counsel and history’s experience, “The realm survives in unbelief but does not survive in oppression.” [In Arabic.]

Three months have passed for our country, but what three months! In our ninth presidential elections we slept for an hour and woke up, it was as if we had fallen into the sleep of those of the Seven Sleepers2 everything was changed. But in the recent presidential elections, as I have said before, staying awake until dawn would not have done any good, since the ugliness had passe from stealing by night to the point of highway robbery. But this was not the beginning of the matter. I could never have foreseen the day that in the Islamic Republic the people’s calm and peaceful demonstrations would be answered as they were. The people’s questions and confusion about the fate of the votes they had cast were answered, but not with proof and logic, but with bullets and batons and clubs and beating. I saw everything which was far from the expected, scenes which re-awoke memories of my youth. As time passed and events unfolded, though, other news came, of torture and astonishing deeds from within nameless detention centers, news which increased the astonishment of myself and every other observer. People came and reported or presented documents and offered witness about what they had undergone during their days in prison.

My God, what did Mehdi Karoubi see and hear? Amazing! If only I was not alive and had not seen the day that in the Islamic Republic, a citizen would come to me and complain that every variety of appalling and unnatural act would be done in unknown buildings and by less known people: Stripping people and making them face each other and subjecting them to vile insults and urinating in their faces and releasing boys and girls with their hands and eyes bound into the wilderness. It was not long after that reports also arrived of the rape of girls and boys in the detention sites. I said to myself, “Where indeed have we arrived three years after the revolution and two months after the Imam’s death?”

It was natural that our zeal would be aroused. I wrote that reports of rape and torture and the practice of unnatural acts were arriving and I ask you, without my prejudging the matter, to investigate and learn if these disasters have occurred or not. This letter was published. But the reply was a hue and cry and insults and threats rained down on me. Friday preachers used their Friday prayer tribunes to say whatever they could against me and attribute things to me in a coordinated effort originating from the administration’s orders. As this happened, my doubts became more grave. I said to myself, “If such disasters had not occurred, they would have said so. But such unnatural attacks from the tribunes, large and small, of Friday prayers and such unnatural insults from some of the press show that some fire had landed on a number of people’s crops. I saw myself as duty-bound to stand up and not abandon the field.

Read rest of translation....


The summary translation of "PersianBanoo" (14 September)

As you know, I as your servant have written several letters to the authorities about the post-election events. I could have never predicted that in the Islamic Republic, they would answer people's peaceful demonstrations with batons and bullets. I witnessed the unthinkable on the streets and alleyways. I saw scenes that reminded me of my younger years.

As time passed, I heard the news of torture in the prisons and unthinkable acts in unnamed and unknown detention centres and unknown buildings and by unknown people. Detainees were treated with shameful and indecent acts, from making prisoners sit naked across each other, urinating on their faces, to releasing young girls and boys handcufffed in outskirts of the city. As though these were not enough, I started hearing reports of rapes. Three decades after the Revolution and two decades after Imam [Khomeini]'s passing, what have we become?

So I wrote a letter to the authorities asking for an investigation into these matters. Their answer was bombarding me with slanders and threats. The Friday Prayer Imams, by order, across the country slandered me. I told myself, if such atrocities had not happened they should just deny them, but instead from Friday Prayer tribunes and their media they attacked me, so I decided to stand firm.

For example I told them about a person who had been raped. Judicial authorities arranged a meeting. They interrogated this person in two sessions. After the second session, this person told me, "These people are after something else."

The prosecutor had asked this person to go to the medical examiner's office. I told him to do it. They continued interrogating this person and told him he should have remained silent for his own and his family's sake and he should have not allowed some politician to use him. A few days later this young man came to me and said they have gone to his parents and neighbours questioning them. He said his parents didn't know about the rape and his father has been crying since. The boy left and I didn't hear from him anymore.

Last Tuesday his father came to visit me saying he is worried for his son. He said, "We are good Muslims, why are they doing this to us?" He said, "They have talked to all our neighbors and shopkeepers around us." He said that they ring his doorbell constantly and then disappear. He said he has seen a big guy on a motorcycle filming his house.

What they did to this witness became a lesson for me not to introduce any more witnesses to the prosecution.

The second case I brought to their attention with documents was a young girl who had been arrested during a demonstration. She says they played with and touched her breasts in the car on the way to the detention centre. At the centre the interrogators had asked her to remove her pants. She refused. While she was on the floor, the pants were removed. As she was screaming for help, the higher-rank officer came in to enquire. The agents said to him, "This girl has taken her own pants off and is trying to dishonor us."

The third case was a young person who was a member of a legal political party The parents contacted me. They already had a CD made & had the medical examiner's report. This person did not claim he was raped. He said he had passed out during the hard beating he received and does not know what they did to him. He had swelling and redness of the rectum area. The medical examiner confirmed the redness and swelling of the rectum area and suggested the Justice Department should do further investigation on this matter. This person spent five days in detention and was beaten badly. This person was told they were moving him to Evin [Prison], but released him handcuffed and blindfolded outside the city limits.

I had documents for these three cases that I presented to the judicial panel. I verbally informed them of two others. The first was Taraneh Mousavi. I told them her family would not talk to me and asked them to do further investigation to find the truth. The witness to Taraneh's case has also said her family would not talk to him/her. We witnessed the interview of the fake parents of the fake Taraneh on TV. They had told the fake family not to be concerned with anything and they will take care of everything

Apparently Mehdi Karroubi's crime was that he had revealed Taraneh's case, which is similar to the chain murders case. This caused the closing of my newspaper Etemade Melli.

I told them Taraneh's case as I had heard it. Taraneh and friends were arrested in front of Qoba mosque [probably on 28 June]. The girls decided to pass phone numbers to each other so whoever was released earlier could inform families. During the transfers between places, one girl realized Taraneh was not among them. This girl, after her release, contacted Taraneh's family and the authorities to inform them that Taraneh was missing. Apparently Taraneh's mother was quite scared and told this girl not to contact her anymore. I asked the three-member panel to investigate this case and find the truth behind all of this.

[Then Karroubi goes thru a lot of discussion of Saeedeh Pouraghai, saying he realized she was not the daughter of a martyr and explains his conversations with Saeedeh's stepsister. He also talks about finding out that this girl has been a runaway. He than talked about giving all information on Saeedeh and asks the panel to investigate further.

He then talks of an incident about a girl that had been arrested during a demonstration. The girl told him she and another girl had been raped in a van on the way to the detention centre. The girl asked Karoubi not to reveal her identity for if her parents find out she will commit suicide.

Karroubi also talks about the case of a nurse with similar stories whose information and picture he did not release. He says the nurse had been raped and she still had bruises on her body.

Karroubi than talks about how well the meeting went with the three-member panel and how they parted happily....]

The very next day, instead of investigating all of these matters I brought to their attention, they arrested [Alireza] Beheshti and [Morteza] Alviri, seized documents from my office and the Etemade Melli party office.

Now that I am quickly preparing this report, I know they just tried to close the mater somehow and fast. They claim I had no evidence and my charges were baseless. The three-member panel has asked the Justice Department to file charges against me. Do they not know that at the end people will do their own judgement and will decide who is telling the truth?
Monday
Sep142009

Latest Iran Video: The Allegations of Detainee Abuse

The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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This video is presented by the Iranian film director Reza Allamehzadeh and features testimony by a former detainee of abuse and rape. We are trying to get an English translation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhKs4lZBkyE[/youtube]
Friday
Sep112009

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi's Letter to Sadegh Larijani on Detainees

The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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KARROUBI3Translation by Pedestrian:

To Mr. Larijani,

The honorable head of the judiciary,

Greetings,

As you know, after the controversial presidential election and its painful, alarming aftermath, I wrote many letters to the officials to share with them certain points, critiques and objections and to give the necessary warnings. The last of these letters was addressed to you. You have just recently accepted responsibility [of the judiciary] and are chief justice. And now I will share with you the details of my meetings with your representatives and some of the marginal events that took place which led to my personal office and party being sealed. I do this as a religious and patriotic obligation. So that future generations do not say that Karoubi was frightened off by pressure and arrests. Even if you do not know, others do know that in the my past, pressure and threats and limitations not only did not deter me, but made me even more determined in the path I had chosen to follow.

Mr. Larijani,

I don’t know how updated you may be of our sessions with the committee you had appointed [from the judiciary]. To inform you and the people, I must tell you that we had two meetings with the honorable Mr. Khalfi, Mohseni Ejeie, and Raeesi, and these meetings went well and a glimpse of the evidence [we had] from the regrettable, unforgivable incidents that had occurred were presented. In the first meeting, information about three people was given, along with a CD and the necessary documents which were all evidence of torture and rape that had been inflicted on boys and girls in identified and unidentified detention centers. In addition to these three documents, we personally hinted at what had happened to two girls, Taraneh Mousavi (the real one) and Saeedeh Pouraghayi. The second meeting was this Monday and lasted for three hours and in this meeting too, in addition to our many debates, I put forth one of my other documents on one condition: that nothing would happen to this individual or the family just because of [our] demand for justice.

[We did not want anything to happen to the family] - things that did happen to another individual who I had introduced in another document, during the time of the previous prosecutor of Tehran [Mortazavi] and that family was forced to endure pressure and pain. Thus, this time I gave my evidence and I warned that the neglect of the previous prosecutor must not be repeated, we must not have wrongdoers enter this scenario, people who are not after justice, but would rather threaten and dishonor the person [evidence] that I had put forth. People who will sell off the honor of the judicial system, and that too in an Islamic society, for the price of keeping the culprits safe.

I should also add that in these meetings that took place to look into the allegations of torture and improper behavior in prisons and the events after the election, they repeatedly asked me: do you think it is beneficial to go on collecting information about rape and torture and the killing of people, is it not possible that these documents will get in the hands of the wrong person? And I replied that I keep these documents in a safe place, and if we reach a conclusion I will destroy them. And I reaffirmed that documents which reveal rape and torture are nothing to be proud of for me to want to keep , or to put on a wall. These are documents that will help us achieve justice and get back the rights of the oppressed and once that is achieved, they will be destroyed and the vile smell and hideous face of evil will be destroyed with them.

[I also said] know this, that if in my investigations I conclude that any of these allegations are false, I will step forward and right this wrong. In this regard, my further investigations had proven the falsity of some of the previous statements I had made about Saeedeh Pouraghayi, which I corrected.

In any case, these two meetings were over, and in the end, I pointed to another new painful case I had just heard and I added that I am in the process of following up this new case and I will present my documents once I am done. I was also asked to look further into the hidden aspects of the Taraneh Mousavi case, and to help the judiciary shed more light on this issue. At the end of the second meeting I gave a suggestion- which was met with the approval of the committee - that we should put an end to this process of taking and bringing documents and that you [the judiciary] can now start investigating the truth with the documents that have already been presented. Because those documents were enough to reveal the truth and to identify the guilty parties.

Mr. Larijani,

I gave this suggestion and left, and our meeting with the committee came to a good end. But the day after, the tides turned. On the orders of Tehran’s prosecutor, a group attacked my office. They searched the office and in doing so, they did not limit themselves to the office documents, but searched and confiscated my personal letters and writings, my bills and private papers. In the end, they sealed my office, and even confiscated the charity supplies I gather there every year. They arrested Mr. Davari, the editor of the Etemad Melli website. They had not finished shutting down my office when they did the same to the office of the Etemad Melli party, of which I am the executive. They unlawfully confiscated the documents of a party that is registered under the laws of the Islamic Republic and finally sealed the office of the party as well. These actions did not suffice and they arrested Dr. Alireza Beheshti, the son of the late Ayatollah Beheshti and Mr. Morteza Alviri, that devoted revolutionary who was once a member of parliament and the mayor of Tehran, and the ambassador of the Islamic Republic in Europen countries.

The Office of the Publication of Ayatollah Beheshti’s Books, one of the founders of the Islamic Republic, was also sealed. I am left wondering: did these events occur on Tuesday as a result of my meeting on Monday? I am left baffled not by what they have done to Karoubi, but that they think that Karoubi, the son of Ahmad, is going to leave the field and choose to remain silent? Now I know why some friends and advisers insisted that I give all the evidence for rape and torture as it had been retold to me by the victims, on a CD and to keep a copy in a safe place. Because the machine of terror is still at work and who knows, some of the witnesses may now take back their claims out of fear.

Because the Islamic Republic has reached a place where the house of Mehdi Karoubi too is no longer a safe place. Because any horrible, indecent act is possible in the Islamic Republic and nothing is far from the imagination.

Mr. Larijani,

I still insist on the original letter I wrote to the head of the expediency council, and after the terror of recent events, I am more determined than ever. When I see that the head of a military organization - the documents are all available - writes a letter to the ministry of health and orders it forbidden to give copies of medical records to those who have been inured in recent events, and prevents the hospitals from giving the victims their records, I am more determined to find out what reasons exist for such threats and fear? According to the oath doctors take, they are obliged to treat anyone who comes to them, even if the injured is a long, lost enemy of their father. And you, as the chief justice, should judge this: how can a doctor feel safe about attending to his medical obligations when such a letter is written by such a high ranking military official?

If an innocent victim dies in such circumstance, how can you hear the pleas of his/her family as chief justice [under such conditions]? If someone has been raped, how can they obtain the necessary documents from medical experts and give them to you in such an atmospheres of terror? Before, we argued why military personnell were entering the spheres of politics and economics. We now see that politics and economics were not enough to satisfy their hunger, and they have now entered the field of medicine as well.

Mr. Larijani,

I assume that you claim to represent justice and I am certain that you are well aware of your responsibility to defend the victim and to punish the oppressor. Thus, in response to your religious and legal obligations, and for the sake of the public, I ask of you to demand that the documents that have been released be investigated. And in this path, I ask that you prevent this atmosphere of terror. And that you do not allow armed and paramilitary forces to contemplate an intervention into law, as they have done politics and medicine. [That you stop] them from conquering another mountain after they did the presidential election and creating an even worse situation. I also recommend that in this environment where thanks to the ex-prosecutor, the free press has been silenced, you do not allow some to take paper to pen claiming to do so for Islam, when in reality, they are doing it against Islam. And [for them] to enter an even more safe haven where they can spread their vulgarity and to blast any hopes for justice. And to terrorize and ridicule revolutionaries. Do not let counterfeit documents take reign, to a point where national TV can broadcast another sham scenario like that of Taraneh Mousavi, and create new ambiguity and chaos, to throw such deep stones in the well that even one hundred fair minded people can not attempt to bring them out.

Mr. Larijani,

You formed a committee to investigate the regretful events and the wrongdoing that occurred after the election and Mr. Khalafi, who was your representative, claimed on your part that you have said that these claims must all be thoroughly investigated. But my question is this: after such terror, fear and threats, is it even possible to attend to the terror and atrocity that occurred after the election? You are left to answer this question but know that Mehdi Karoubi still insists on reclaiming the rights of the oppressed. Such old, overused tactics may work to silence some, but they will not work on Mehdi Karoubi and he will forcefully take a stand, and he will not allow a group of nouveau riche to sell off a country and the legacy of an Imam which was attained after a democratic revolution and the blood of many martyrs.

With hopes of your success in the judiciary,

Mehdi Karroubi