The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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On Monday we listed five challengers to the authority and legitimacy of the regime. One of these, conservative and principlist critics of the Government, remained silent, but the other four kept us very busy. Let's have a look, shall we?

1) THE GREEN LEADERSHIP: Mehdi Karroubi just won't go away, will he? On Monday he issued a lengthy letter to the Iranian people, re-stating his case on the abuse of detainees and thereby taking apart the Iranian judiciary's dismissal of his evidence. He agreed to a meeting with Speaker of the President Ali Larijani, where the discussion went something like this:

LARIJANI: Karroubi, you should be silent from now until well past Qods Day.
KARROUBI: No.


Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, while arguably now in supporting roles, kept up a steady stream of information and exhortation through their Facebook pages. Only former President Khatami has retreated into silence in recent days.

2) SENIOR CLERICS: No fresh statements yesterday; however, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Sunday message condemning the transformation of the Islamic Republic into a "military state" spread rapidly. And the family of Imam Khomenei made their position clear, from greetings of freed detainees to the filing of charges against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan.

A very observant Iranian friend offers this important sentiment, "The ulama [Islamic scholars] are now uniting against this Government."

3) HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: The position of "The Shark", read through last night's statement on Qods (Jerusalem) Day, is in the eye of the beholder. Are the former President's words to be read as a straightforward invocation for Iranians to support the Palestinian people? Or is the message, with its reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government", to be applied closer to home?

My reaction is that Rafsanjani has cleverly put out the possibility of an endorsement of opposition while being able to respond, if pressed, "No, I didn't say that." The important dimension, however, is not my reaction but that of the millions who learn of this statement. If they interpret it as support for the cause, then the challenge to the regime will have been bolstered.

4) THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: So how many Iranians are behind the Green movement and/or its allies? How many are not "for" it but happy to stand by, despite Government injunctions to stand firm against a "velvet coup"? I'm a fool but not foolish enough to venture an answer.

Two well-informed Iranian friends discussed this with me yesterday and offered this: the number of Iranians seeking meaningful change has not diminished since 12 June. Some of those who had no defined opinion three months ago have moved behind the President; others have either been convinced by the opposition or alienated from the Government. But I think they, like me, are holding their breath for Friday.

Still I think it's safe to reaffirm, as we put forth yesterday, "The Protest Goes On". The signs were strong enough to kick what was supposed to be Monday's showcase event --- the 5th Tehran trial --- to kick the sidelines. Despite the prosecution's strident repetition of foreign-led/cyber-driven counter-revolution, complete with another "confession" --- this one from Abdollah Momeni --- the general reaction seemed to be a giant yawn.

Indeed, if the Government was sending out signals, they were of worry rather than confidence. Consider the specific references in the trial to the power of "Facebook" to corrupt the Iranian public and the attention to Mir Hossein Mousavi's IT staff. That is an indication that the regime is considered not only about Karroubi's high-profile Web outlets but about the alternative channels, including the Facebook sites (which the Government tried to hack earlier in this crisis but which now appear to be safe from demolition), set up by the Mousavi campaign.

And then there was last night's final act. Far from being secure in its position after the criticism of the day, the Government lashed out and arrested the three grandsons of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. While this is a display of power, it is a power which is not assured but spiteful. It shows not deliberation --- as in last week's attempt to break the Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns --- but a hot-headed anger and concern.

Long-term developments, short-term challenge. I'll stand by yesterday's conclusion.

Qods Day is three days away.

Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon's Jumblatt Seeking Iran Support?; Preparing for Showdown at UN

Lebanon's Jumblatt Pursuing Iran Link? Opposition MP Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze community, told Iran's Press TV on Saturday that Lebanon should be armed by Tehranan against the possibility of an Israeli aggression against Lebanon. He said: "They (Israelis) are not hiding that, they are saying we will attack or we will one day come to Lebanon again."

Jumblatt added: "We need anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons....Americans are not really willing to provide us with such weapons. They will tell you these weapons will be used against Israelis. OK, but my enemy is Israel."

Jumblatt called for the unity of the Arab world through dialogue between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran, as well as between the Arab League and Iran. This unity between the Shiite and Sunni blocks could bring an end to Israel's "aggression."

Preparing for the UN Show: There have already been vehement discussions at the United Nations General Assembly in advance of next week's speeches by national leaders. Libyan diplomat Ali Treki is taking over the UNGA Presidency from Nicaraguan President Miguel d'Escoto Brockman, as it is reported that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi will attend the Assembly next week after the release of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset al-Megrahi by Scottish officials.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's 23 September speech is also being discussed in diplomatic circles. The World Jewish Congress has launched a campaign on to convince leaders to boycott the address. The organization is also ciruclating a petition to the General Assembly which individuals can sign and send to UN officials.

Meanwhile, Brockman left the Presidency with a swipe at the "world powers [who] curbed him from aiding Palestinians." Brockman said, "My greatest frustration this year has been the Palestine situation," and added:

I wanted to help Palestine, but those who should supposedly have been most interested denied their support for reasons of "caution" that I was incapable of understanding.

He blamed the permanent five members of the Security Council (United States, Britain, France, China and Russia) of being "passive and apparently indifferent" on the Israeli blockade of Gaza in the past two years and called their behavior "disgraceful".

The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull --- Storm?

NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

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1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.

1800 GMT: Will He or Won't He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.

1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.

1550 GMT: Both the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz and the reformist site Norooz, which reported it was under heavy cyber-attack from the Iranian authorities, appear to be down. Etemade Melli (Saham News) is still up.

1330 GMT: Beheshti Freed. The Kalameh website of Mir Hossein Mousavi broke the news that Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, has benn freed after five days in detention. Other reports indicate that members of Imam Khomeini's family met Beheshti soon after his release.

1210 GMT: Threats Everywhere. In addition to the warnings being thrown at Mehdi Karroubi, Fars reports that the President's office will sue Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i for allegedly insulting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “Following an insulting speech made in a ceremony by Mr Sanei against the president, the president’s legal office has prepared a complaint against him. The complaint will be submitted to the Special Court for Clergy."1200 GMT: Trials Resume. Agence France Presse reports, from the Islamic Republic News Agency, that the fifth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be held Monday morning. Some Iranian reporters will be allowed into the court, but foreign media will be barred.

IRNA is also headlining the opinion of "a group of activists, politicians, and MPs" that, as no one has judicial immunity, Mehdi Karroubi should be tried for false claims of detainee abuses.

1100 GMT: A report from an Iranian activist via Twitter that Dr. Ebrahim Amini, a board member of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, has been arrested in Shiraz. If true, the regime has now arrested three members of the Reform Committee that was investigating detainee abuse.

1050 GMT: Controlling the Enquiry? An interesting article in Etemad, summarised in Reuters, points both to the regime's efforts to show it is doing something about claims of detainee abuse and to keep the initiative out of the hands of Mehdi Karroubi.

Mohammad-Kazem Bahrami, head of the Armed Forces' Judicial Organization, said that 90 people had filed complaints of mistreatment at the Kahrizak detention centre.
He added that there had been further arrests, although he gave no details on the identities or positions of the suspects: "Until Wednesday, seven people who were accused of being involved in the case have been detained."

There was no mention in the article of Karroubi, who has been pressing the cases of abused detainees.

1025 GMT: Apologies for the glitch (my error, rather than technical, I'm afraid) which took this page down for an hour.

0910 GMT: We've followed up on a story earlier this week by posting a summary of the open letter from Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: A late start for us this morning, as we recover from a week of tension. Very little emerging from Iran this morning, with the best of the Western media such as The New York Times focusing on yesterday's rejection by the three-member judiciary panel --- for "lack of evidence" --- of Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of detainee abuse.

One piece of breaking news: Mamosta Borhan Ali, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Sanandaj in Kurdestan Province was assassinated on Saturday night.

Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran

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Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor has told Reuters that "superpowers had to do stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons either militarily or through further sanctions". Yet what may be most striking in the interview is that, beyond that tough assertion, Meridor is unwilling or unable to pursue a specific line because of the positions of other countries. He cannot endorse military operations; he cannot condemn the engagement of President Obama, and his "concerted intensive action" is hostage to the support of China and Russia.

Meridor's statement:

The time is now. There is no more time to waste, and that's not only the Israeli perspective, it's much more general.

I remember that in 2003 they suspended enrichment because the Americans looked strong enough after the invasion of Iraq.

The clock is ticking, in the sense that when nothing is done (to dissuade Iran), something (enrichment) is done all the time. Time is relevant and of the essence here. How long? I don't want to go into that here...The trend is clear.

I'm not speaking of military action. I don't want to give any word that would be misinterpreted. I intentionally put this issue in its broader context. Of course there is a special case in Israel because Iranian leaders say, not only (President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad, that Israel is not legitimate and should not exist, and one sees the building up of weapons, not to speak of the meaningful involvement in terror all over the place... One should not close one's eyes but we are in a way fortunate that this is not only Israel's problem.

Our policy is a good one and it worked well. And we are known to be quite a responsible country. We are in a unique position. There are formulas we use all the time (to address this issue). I will not say what we have, if we have or we don't have (nuclear weapons), but the fact is that the alarm in the Arab world is related to the fear that Iran may have it.

It [Iran's having a nuclear weapon] is not in the distant future. When they decide exactly this or exactly that is a good question but it's not the main question. The trend is clear and if you want to be an owner of nuclear weapons or have the capability of being a nuclear power it changes the balance of power.

I can't say that [the U.S. engagement's being called as a "waste of time"], because the other option didn't work either... If it works, it works. What I think we look for is the result, whether you do it with soft spoken language or with a heavy stick. I'd rather do it with a positive (method), but that doesn't always work.

It's important there is an understanding, a will, a capability, if all join hands, to enforce a concerted intensive action -- which is not military action, I speak of political and economic measures -- that may be taken if the Russians and Chinese can get on board.

If there is no perception of a concerted effort the other countries who are concenred with the possibility of a nuclear Iran could develop their own in the meantime... Then you will find a different world, one harder for a superpower to manage.

I don't think Russia has an interest in a nuclear Iran. Maybe they want to be considered as a partner, not to be told what to do. I am not for or against the Russians. I am saying they are important elements. Their have an important role in the world. Communism might be dead. Russia is not.