Monday
Sep142009
Iran: The Protest Goes On
Monday, September 14, 2009 at 7:30
NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?
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At the risk of whipping away the cloak of objectivity, a personal note to start this analysis. One of our excellent readers commented on our updates yesterday, "We wish that there is a major backfire by overplay from the Ahmadinejad side. However I fear that this is more a case of play (carrot and stick) and that the backfire will over time [dwindle]."
It's a vital caution. Amidst the Government's attempt to break opposition once and for all, there is an inclination to seize upon and exaggerate any scrap of news as an indication that it has not succeeded. Yet, reviewing all the weekend scraps, I can only assess....
The Government has not yet succeeded.
The big play this weekend was the report of the three-member judiciary panel (published in a separate entry) looking to bury the initiative of Mehdi Karroubi on detainee abuse. This was not a denial of the claims of beatings and rapes; it was a damnation of the cleric for wasting everyone's time with lies and slanders.
Perhaps the most important signal of the report lies not in its content, which is more polemic than critique, but in its politics. Unless Sadegh Larijani, the head of judiciary, publicly rebukes his own officials, we can now assume that he is on-board (if not sanctioning) the effort to quiet Karroubi. If those conservative and principlist MPs who were critical of the Government between late July and the start of September over detentions, fuelled by the case of Mohsen Ruholamini, are now acquiescent, then President Ahmadinejad and his allies will have surmounted a major challenge. The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations --- a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail --- while maintaining control of the process. It is no coincidence that this weekend the Government announced, on short notice, the next Tehran trial for today.
This, however, is not the end of the story. For the critical group within the Establishment was only one of five challengers to the Government's legitimacy. There is also 2) the anger of senior clerics; 3) Hashemi Rafsanjani; 4) opposition leaders such as Mehdi Karroubi; and 5) "the movement". And it is far from certain that Ahmadinejad has put down the threat from any of these.
As with so much else in this crisis, the use of sledgehammer rather than scalpel by the Government carries risks. Mir Hossein Mousavi put out the statement that resistance continues. More importantly, Mehdi Karroubi and his communications network, back up and running, did not disappear this weekend. Indeed, the regime, by shutting off the possibility that Karroubi can work within the system to get redress and justice for victims, pushes the cleric back into the streets of confrontation. And it also "succeeded" in bringing a limited but significant response from Hashemi Rafsanjani: if Karroubi is touched by detention, then the former President comes out against the Government
Undoubtedly, the hope of the regime is that threat will suffice to choke off that possibility of opposition. Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti is released, even as another activist on the Reform Committee investigating detentions is arrested, with the stated or unstated injunction that he best behave himself. The arrest order for Karroubi is announced but not implemented. Outlets like Norooz are targeted by cyber-attack.
But here's the little problem for the Government. All the raids, trials, and threats have not silenced part of its population. There is no way, given the restrictions on the public, to assess the size of that wave of dissent --- not just the "Green" wave but also those who did not support Mousavi or Karroubi but have now turned against the regime because of its tactics, not just the election protestors but those who have tired of the economic and social downturns and tensions. But, for anyone shrewd and dedicated enough both to respect the voices of Iranians and to make the most of "new media" and "social media" (Are you listening, Roger Cohen? Because, for all your good work, your column last week on Iran and new media was a travesty.), the wave can still be felt.
On its own, that public wave cannot dislodge the Government. Even with the public catalyst of a Karroubi to lead it, it probably cannot surmount the force used against it. However, if Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency (note Ahmadinejad's sledgehammer reaction yesterday with the threat of court proceeding against Ayatollah Sane'i, which follows the Supreme Leader's attempt to quash a letter from the Grand Ayatollahs), then the wave will come ashore again and again. That in itself is a long-term development that takes the Islamic Republic beyond the simplicity (stated in comments on our updates) that the regime took care of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in 1989 and it can take care of Karroubi. It makes the challenge of 2009 far greater than the demonstrations of 1999.
And if the other element, a Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, decides to make his own move? Well, then long-term development becomes the renewal of short-term challenge.
Qods Day is four days away.
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
At the risk of whipping away the cloak of objectivity, a personal note to start this analysis. One of our excellent readers commented on our updates yesterday, "We wish that there is a major backfire by overplay from the Ahmadinejad side. However I fear that this is more a case of play (carrot and stick) and that the backfire will over time [dwindle]."It's a vital caution. Amidst the Government's attempt to break opposition once and for all, there is an inclination to seize upon and exaggerate any scrap of news as an indication that it has not succeeded. Yet, reviewing all the weekend scraps, I can only assess....
The Government has not yet succeeded.
The big play this weekend was the report of the three-member judiciary panel (published in a separate entry) looking to bury the initiative of Mehdi Karroubi on detainee abuse. This was not a denial of the claims of beatings and rapes; it was a damnation of the cleric for wasting everyone's time with lies and slanders.
Perhaps the most important signal of the report lies not in its content, which is more polemic than critique, but in its politics. Unless Sadegh Larijani, the head of judiciary, publicly rebukes his own officials, we can now assume that he is on-board (if not sanctioning) the effort to quiet Karroubi. If those conservative and principlist MPs who were critical of the Government between late July and the start of September over detentions, fuelled by the case of Mohsen Ruholamini, are now acquiescent, then President Ahmadinejad and his allies will have surmounted a major challenge. The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations --- a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail --- while maintaining control of the process. It is no coincidence that this weekend the Government announced, on short notice, the next Tehran trial for today.
This, however, is not the end of the story. For the critical group within the Establishment was only one of five challengers to the Government's legitimacy. There is also 2) the anger of senior clerics; 3) Hashemi Rafsanjani; 4) opposition leaders such as Mehdi Karroubi; and 5) "the movement". And it is far from certain that Ahmadinejad has put down the threat from any of these.
As with so much else in this crisis, the use of sledgehammer rather than scalpel by the Government carries risks. Mir Hossein Mousavi put out the statement that resistance continues. More importantly, Mehdi Karroubi and his communications network, back up and running, did not disappear this weekend. Indeed, the regime, by shutting off the possibility that Karroubi can work within the system to get redress and justice for victims, pushes the cleric back into the streets of confrontation. And it also "succeeded" in bringing a limited but significant response from Hashemi Rafsanjani: if Karroubi is touched by detention, then the former President comes out against the Government
Undoubtedly, the hope of the regime is that threat will suffice to choke off that possibility of opposition. Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti is released, even as another activist on the Reform Committee investigating detentions is arrested, with the stated or unstated injunction that he best behave himself. The arrest order for Karroubi is announced but not implemented. Outlets like Norooz are targeted by cyber-attack.
But here's the little problem for the Government. All the raids, trials, and threats have not silenced part of its population. There is no way, given the restrictions on the public, to assess the size of that wave of dissent --- not just the "Green" wave but also those who did not support Mousavi or Karroubi but have now turned against the regime because of its tactics, not just the election protestors but those who have tired of the economic and social downturns and tensions. But, for anyone shrewd and dedicated enough both to respect the voices of Iranians and to make the most of "new media" and "social media" (Are you listening, Roger Cohen? Because, for all your good work, your column last week on Iran and new media was a travesty.), the wave can still be felt.
On its own, that public wave cannot dislodge the Government. Even with the public catalyst of a Karroubi to lead it, it probably cannot surmount the force used against it. However, if Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency (note Ahmadinejad's sledgehammer reaction yesterday with the threat of court proceeding against Ayatollah Sane'i, which follows the Supreme Leader's attempt to quash a letter from the Grand Ayatollahs), then the wave will come ashore again and again. That in itself is a long-term development that takes the Islamic Republic beyond the simplicity (stated in comments on our updates) that the regime took care of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in 1989 and it can take care of Karroubi. It makes the challenge of 2009 far greater than the demonstrations of 1999.
And if the other element, a Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, decides to make his own move? Well, then long-term development becomes the renewal of short-term challenge.
Qods Day is four days away.
Reader Comments (10)
Mousavi's lack of charisma and strong leadership have forced common Iranians to lead locally. The opposition's weakness has thus been turned into a long term formidable strength: a broadly distributed resistance that will be far more difficult for the regime to dismantle than a strong centralized organization would have been. I predict surprises when least expected with over time younger leaders emerging from outside the system.
Your analysis here (and in other posts) that keep going back to Rafsanjani, reminds me of Martin Woollocott's 1994 observation that Rafsanjani is seen as “having enough power to be held responsible for everything that goes wrong but not enough to push through the policies that would prevent things going wrong."
An astute observation then and still now. Reading it is like a fog lifting: For how long exactly are we going to assume Rafsanjani has untold powers and is just waiting for the right moment to use it? When they arrest his daughter? Threaten his son? Insult him in speeches? Accuse of being one of the key pawns in the velvet revolution? At some point we must consider the simple fact that perhaps Rafsanjani has already made his move and it has amounted to nothing.
I too see the reliance on Rafsanjani as flawed. His power is formidable, but his willingness to use it, or ability to apply it seems limited. It is not so relevant what is the cause of this hold back. What is relevant is the result, that in face of attack, he has chosen to retreat. An eloquent and calculated retreat is just that however. Although not written off yet, i fear that he is in a bind and unless there is a major event to open the situation up to his advantage, he will sit back and retreat slowly and patiently.... The only player that really can confront this offensive is the people en mass.. People have shown they are brave, however they have to also show that they are determined. We need to be willing to march time after time with a million man army until the regime either changes or falls.
Hamid
Your point is very important and also encouraging. Strong local leadership is vital both for the leadership alone and also for the fact that organization on the local level is fundamental to starting a new government. Thanks for your news
My heart sank when I read that the mock trials are scheduled to resume and also on the committee findings on the rape and abuse allegations. But I don' think we can put the conservative and principlist MPs into the regime's column. They have been some of the loudest critics of the trials. Who ever is behind the trials is resuming them like a slap in the face. They have been condemned by a broad spectrum of clerical, political and even judicial authorities, tho it sounds like the regime may have peeled off the judiciary. I think those running the trials know they are walking a thin line and that resuming the trials is another pre-Qods Day tactic aimed a potential protest leaders. IMHO, the trials will suddenly be postponed to a date after Qods & then dropped or, alternately, there will be one trial & then future trials will not be scheduled unless there is another threat of massive protests. It's one of the riskier moves the regime has made in recent days
Naghmeh,
In fact I've come to similar conclusions. Rafsanjani's latest threat to resign from all functions if Karoubi is arrested sounds rather pointless. It appears that that the organized opposition forces (traditional ayatollahs, traditional Khomeinists & evolved Khomeinists) can only slow down the military take over rather than reverse it. Assuming that the latter continue their grinding advance, would they have won? That's where I see the mass of young people surprising everyone when least expected and producing both new leaders and blows to the regime. I believe that in this group, all respect for the regime has been shattered and while fear of bodily harm has increased, the deepening frustration and the growth & rise of this population segment will maintain and increase it's resistance. Unforeseen events will then from time to time cause huge emotional protests that will eventually sweep away this dictatorship.
Dear all,
I agree with your points that not all is dependent on Rafsanjani. Take him of the equation and there are still 3 key elements: 1) the mass movement 2) a symbolic figure such as Karroubi 3) senior clerics.
That said, I think he offers both 1) an important "magnet", in that his presence will offer the basis for a gathering, such as the 17 July Friday Prayers and 2) safety in numbers, because the regime then has to take him out as well as Karroubi-Mousavi-etc.
S.
[...] and new media was a travesty.) (Seems to me that the big media guys still don't get it!) From Iran: The Protest Goes On | Enduring America [...]
You can lose the battles and win the war. Willingness to walk the distance is the fortitude required. Keep taking the blows and the other side can become disillusioned. The use of force is reflected in domestic and international spheres. A tyrant's hatred for and fear of his own people will make him loathsome in the sight of outsiders.
In defense of Mousavi, he is a stragetist. The Green Path Of Hope is the way. When the regime falls, you still need to govern and the republic system is in place, just need to strenghten the checks and balances within the consitution.
Again I think Scott, whereismyvote and others bring up good points on Rafsanjani. I have begun to believe those who look to him to be the "savior" of the green movement will be disappointed. Karroubi is clearly pushing himself to the front of the GM "leaders". I think Scott's analogy to Rafsanjani's magnetism is a good description and the likely role he will play in the short term. In showing he leans toward the opposition movement (puposedly didn't use the word "support") he will continue to draw support from within the establishment and from Iranian citizens...one can not deny he still draws lots of attention to his every move. The real question is can Karroubi continue to inspire the real players in this, iranian citizens, to continue to take the movement back to the streets.