Monday
Sep142009
Iran: The Protest Goes On
Monday, September 14, 2009 at 7:30
NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
At the risk of whipping away the cloak of objectivity, a personal note to start this analysis. One of our excellent readers commented on our updates yesterday, "We wish that there is a major backfire by overplay from the Ahmadinejad side. However I fear that this is more a case of play (carrot and stick) and that the backfire will over time [dwindle]."
It's a vital caution. Amidst the Government's attempt to break opposition once and for all, there is an inclination to seize upon and exaggerate any scrap of news as an indication that it has not succeeded. Yet, reviewing all the weekend scraps, I can only assess....
The Government has not yet succeeded.
The big play this weekend was the report of the three-member judiciary panel (published in a separate entry) looking to bury the initiative of Mehdi Karroubi on detainee abuse. This was not a denial of the claims of beatings and rapes; it was a damnation of the cleric for wasting everyone's time with lies and slanders.
Perhaps the most important signal of the report lies not in its content, which is more polemic than critique, but in its politics. Unless Sadegh Larijani, the head of judiciary, publicly rebukes his own officials, we can now assume that he is on-board (if not sanctioning) the effort to quiet Karroubi. If those conservative and principlist MPs who were critical of the Government between late July and the start of September over detentions, fuelled by the case of Mohsen Ruholamini, are now acquiescent, then President Ahmadinejad and his allies will have surmounted a major challenge. The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations --- a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail --- while maintaining control of the process. It is no coincidence that this weekend the Government announced, on short notice, the next Tehran trial for today.
This, however, is not the end of the story. For the critical group within the Establishment was only one of five challengers to the Government's legitimacy. There is also 2) the anger of senior clerics; 3) Hashemi Rafsanjani; 4) opposition leaders such as Mehdi Karroubi; and 5) "the movement". And it is far from certain that Ahmadinejad has put down the threat from any of these.
As with so much else in this crisis, the use of sledgehammer rather than scalpel by the Government carries risks. Mir Hossein Mousavi put out the statement that resistance continues. More importantly, Mehdi Karroubi and his communications network, back up and running, did not disappear this weekend. Indeed, the regime, by shutting off the possibility that Karroubi can work within the system to get redress and justice for victims, pushes the cleric back into the streets of confrontation. And it also "succeeded" in bringing a limited but significant response from Hashemi Rafsanjani: if Karroubi is touched by detention, then the former President comes out against the Government
Undoubtedly, the hope of the regime is that threat will suffice to choke off that possibility of opposition. Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti is released, even as another activist on the Reform Committee investigating detentions is arrested, with the stated or unstated injunction that he best behave himself. The arrest order for Karroubi is announced but not implemented. Outlets like Norooz are targeted by cyber-attack.
But here's the little problem for the Government. All the raids, trials, and threats have not silenced part of its population. There is no way, given the restrictions on the public, to assess the size of that wave of dissent --- not just the "Green" wave but also those who did not support Mousavi or Karroubi but have now turned against the regime because of its tactics, not just the election protestors but those who have tired of the economic and social downturns and tensions. But, for anyone shrewd and dedicated enough both to respect the voices of Iranians and to make the most of "new media" and "social media" (Are you listening, Roger Cohen? Because, for all your good work, your column last week on Iran and new media was a travesty.), the wave can still be felt.
On its own, that public wave cannot dislodge the Government. Even with the public catalyst of a Karroubi to lead it, it probably cannot surmount the force used against it. However, if Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency (note Ahmadinejad's sledgehammer reaction yesterday with the threat of court proceeding against Ayatollah Sane'i, which follows the Supreme Leader's attempt to quash a letter from the Grand Ayatollahs), then the wave will come ashore again and again. That in itself is a long-term development that takes the Islamic Republic beyond the simplicity (stated in comments on our updates) that the regime took care of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in 1989 and it can take care of Karroubi. It makes the challenge of 2009 far greater than the demonstrations of 1999.
And if the other element, a Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, decides to make his own move? Well, then long-term development becomes the renewal of short-term challenge.
Qods Day is four days away.
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
At the risk of whipping away the cloak of objectivity, a personal note to start this analysis. One of our excellent readers commented on our updates yesterday, "We wish that there is a major backfire by overplay from the Ahmadinejad side. However I fear that this is more a case of play (carrot and stick) and that the backfire will over time [dwindle]."It's a vital caution. Amidst the Government's attempt to break opposition once and for all, there is an inclination to seize upon and exaggerate any scrap of news as an indication that it has not succeeded. Yet, reviewing all the weekend scraps, I can only assess....
The Government has not yet succeeded.
The big play this weekend was the report of the three-member judiciary panel (published in a separate entry) looking to bury the initiative of Mehdi Karroubi on detainee abuse. This was not a denial of the claims of beatings and rapes; it was a damnation of the cleric for wasting everyone's time with lies and slanders.
Perhaps the most important signal of the report lies not in its content, which is more polemic than critique, but in its politics. Unless Sadegh Larijani, the head of judiciary, publicly rebukes his own officials, we can now assume that he is on-board (if not sanctioning) the effort to quiet Karroubi. If those conservative and principlist MPs who were critical of the Government between late July and the start of September over detentions, fuelled by the case of Mohsen Ruholamini, are now acquiescent, then President Ahmadinejad and his allies will have surmounted a major challenge. The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations --- a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail --- while maintaining control of the process. It is no coincidence that this weekend the Government announced, on short notice, the next Tehran trial for today.
This, however, is not the end of the story. For the critical group within the Establishment was only one of five challengers to the Government's legitimacy. There is also 2) the anger of senior clerics; 3) Hashemi Rafsanjani; 4) opposition leaders such as Mehdi Karroubi; and 5) "the movement". And it is far from certain that Ahmadinejad has put down the threat from any of these.
As with so much else in this crisis, the use of sledgehammer rather than scalpel by the Government carries risks. Mir Hossein Mousavi put out the statement that resistance continues. More importantly, Mehdi Karroubi and his communications network, back up and running, did not disappear this weekend. Indeed, the regime, by shutting off the possibility that Karroubi can work within the system to get redress and justice for victims, pushes the cleric back into the streets of confrontation. And it also "succeeded" in bringing a limited but significant response from Hashemi Rafsanjani: if Karroubi is touched by detention, then the former President comes out against the Government
Undoubtedly, the hope of the regime is that threat will suffice to choke off that possibility of opposition. Mousavi's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti is released, even as another activist on the Reform Committee investigating detentions is arrested, with the stated or unstated injunction that he best behave himself. The arrest order for Karroubi is announced but not implemented. Outlets like Norooz are targeted by cyber-attack.
But here's the little problem for the Government. All the raids, trials, and threats have not silenced part of its population. There is no way, given the restrictions on the public, to assess the size of that wave of dissent --- not just the "Green" wave but also those who did not support Mousavi or Karroubi but have now turned against the regime because of its tactics, not just the election protestors but those who have tired of the economic and social downturns and tensions. But, for anyone shrewd and dedicated enough both to respect the voices of Iranians and to make the most of "new media" and "social media" (Are you listening, Roger Cohen? Because, for all your good work, your column last week on Iran and new media was a travesty.), the wave can still be felt.
On its own, that public wave cannot dislodge the Government. Even with the public catalyst of a Karroubi to lead it, it probably cannot surmount the force used against it. However, if Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency (note Ahmadinejad's sledgehammer reaction yesterday with the threat of court proceeding against Ayatollah Sane'i, which follows the Supreme Leader's attempt to quash a letter from the Grand Ayatollahs), then the wave will come ashore again and again. That in itself is a long-term development that takes the Islamic Republic beyond the simplicity (stated in comments on our updates) that the regime took care of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in 1989 and it can take care of Karroubi. It makes the challenge of 2009 far greater than the demonstrations of 1999.
And if the other element, a Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, decides to make his own move? Well, then long-term development becomes the renewal of short-term challenge.
Qods Day is four days away.
