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Entries by Scott Lucas (139)

Monday
Oct262009

The Baghdad Bombings: A Political Blast

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IRAQ BOMBINGThe media are scrambling to get with grips with the double bombing in Baghdad on Sunday, targeting national and provincial ministries, that killed more than 150 people. As the BBC's flagship radio programme somewhat blithely admitted today, the incidents "refocused" world attention on the country.

We're going to take a couple of days before venturing a full analysis, but the one point we would make, unlikely to be highlighted in the press, is that the event exposes how peripheral the US has become to Iraq's development. For all the troops that remain in the country, despite having the largest embassy in the world, Washington now watches as political battles are played out through violence, back-room manoeuvres, and public criticisms. This was exposed by the timing of the bomb: it came as Iraqi politicians were to discuss the difficulties stalling next January's elections.

As usual, Juan Cole offers one of the most penetrating responses to tragedy and politics:

Two massive blasts shook central Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 136 people and wounding 500, and destroying three government ministry buildings, according to the Times of London's Oliver August reporting from Baghdad. It was the most destructive attack of 2009. August notes that the likely perpetrators were either Baathists from the old regime or Sunni Muslim extremists, both of whom want to stop a new, Shiite- and Kurdish- dominated status quo from settling upon Iraq.

AFP Arabic service says that the first car exploded at 10 am Baghdad time at a crowded intersection near the ministry of justice and the ministry of municipalities. The second was detonated ten minutes later on Salihiya St. in front of the Baghdad Province administrative office. Many dead bodies are suspected of still being beneath the rubble of the ministries of justice and public works buildings, which collapsed on the employees.

The ministries were protected by blast walls and the truck bombs could not get that close, but the explosives used were so ungodly powerful that they swept the blast walls away. I have no pretensions to forensics expertise, but that sounds like a clue to me; where are the guerrillas getting such remarkable high explosives?

The particular ministries that were struck may be significant, since Iraq operates on a spoils system and ministries tend to be dominated by political parties and ethnic groups. The Minister of Public Works is Riyadh Gharib, a prominent member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is close to the clerics in Tehran. Public Works as a ministry would thus have a lot of ISCI party members as employees and it is also a huge source of political patronage. Baathists or Sunni extremists would have every reason to hit it.

The Ministry of Justice had been less politicized, but from 2007 was in the control of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. The Minister of Justice from last February is Judge Dara Nur al-Din, an independent Kurd. He had been a member of the Interim Governing Council under Paul Bremer, for which some groups in Iraq may not have forgiven him. The ministry of justice also oversees court cases and executions, including of prominent Baathists, executions that Nur al-Din has defended, and which have angered the anti-government guerrillas.

Read rest of article....
Monday
Oct262009

Iran: Turning Bombings into an Alliance with Pakistan

Iran: Taking Apart the Jundallah-US Narrative
Latest from Iran (26 October): After the Fair

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IRAN PAKISTAN FLAGSWe noted last week, in the immediate aftermath of the Jundallah bombings that killed more than 40 in southeastern Iran, that the Ahmadinejad Cabinet was moving quickly to use the incident as a catalyst for discussions with Pakistan. Iran Review has translated an analysis from the Etelaat daily newspaper which points to the strategy. Notice that such a strategy, at least in this editorial, pivots on the portrayal of Saudi elements as a common enemy to both Tehran and Islamabad:

We and Pakistan
Abolqasem Qasemzadeh


We, Iranians, and Pakistan are suffering from common maladies which include terrorism and assassination. Pakistan is currently plagued with the Taliban that has frequently endangered public security in that country through assassinations and bomb blasts. The Islamic Republic of Iran too has been a victim to terrorist groups which avail of financial, military and propaganda support of Iran’s adversaries since the victory of 1979 the Islamic Revolution. For years, we and Pakistan have been hit hard by the Wahhabi thought, which seeks to divide Sunnis and Shias. Petrodollars spent by Wahhabi groups in the Islamic Iran have sought to disturb security in border regions through assassinations and acts of terrorism.

At the beginning of the Iraqi imposed war when Saddam was representing world powers that meant to overthrow the Islamic government, the late Saudi King Fahd had been quoted as saying that funding Saddam’s war against Iran and providing him with political, intelligence and military support of Western countries, especially the United States, would help him to win the war. However, Saddam’s ultimate defeat brought shame to all those powers that are currently carrying the mark of shame for supporting Saddam on their brows. In Pakistan, the division between Shias and Sunnis has had no other fruit but massacre of innocent Shiites and Sunnis and destruction of their living environment. Although, the conspirators have constantly taken advantage of ignorance of some societies, today, both Shias and Sunnis in Iran and Pakistan have understood that Wahhabi thought is closely related to Zionist plots and the interests of foreign colonialist powers.

Baluchestan is a common name for border provinces in Iran and Pakistan, both of which have a province under the same name. Both countries are trying to develop their Baluchestan provinces and help Baluch people by implementing development projects. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been constantly trying to make the common border secure and has never let terrorist groups to consider Iranian Baluchestan a safe refuge after committing acts of terror. We and Pakistanis are well aware of the ominous intelligence and military conspiracies of the UK and the United States in that region and know that terrorism in the region will hit both the people of Iran and Pakistan.
Monday
Oct262009

Iran's Political Confusion: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and the Nuclear Agreement

Latest from Iran (26 October): After the Fair

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AHMADINEJAD KHAMENEIThis short, little-noticed story may be important in more than one way.

Yesterday, speaking to an association of engineers, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar declared:
Presently, the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader emphasize that our strategic policies are based on the absence of negotiations with the United States.That is why we will not have any direct negotiations with the United States.....The conditions for such negotiations must emerge, which have not as yet emerged.

With those three sentences, Bahonar attempted to sweep away both the current talks on Iran's nuclear programme and the concept of "engagement" with Washington. The immediate effect, if his words were heeded, would be Tehran's refusal --- after last week's Vienna discussions and the original deadline of last Friday --- to accept the proposal for "third-party enrichment".

That alone would let the conflict genie out of the diplomatic bottle, with the Obama Administration backed into a corner to set aside talks for harsher economic sanctions. That's pretty big, but it is still not as big as the internal outcome. Bahonar may be the messenger not only for a blow against engagement, but also a smack-down of President Ahmadinejad

Last week, when Bahonar came out against the nuclear discussions, we downplayed his remarks, seeing him as a bystander. When Speaker of the Parliament jumped in with his criticisms of Vienna, however, we raised an eyebrow: was this Ayatollah Khamenei's signal that he was drawing a line across engagement?

Bahonar's latest public declaration indicates, "Yes". And with that Yes comes an even bigger turn of the Iranian political wheel: is the Supreme Leader challenging not only engagement but his own President's authority?

If the signals continue, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has a decision to make. He either defies Ayatollah Khamenei for the sake of his foreign policy, but this risks a showdown with the leader of the Iranian system. On the other hand, if he accepts the Supreme Leader's veto, ensuring a renewed diplomatic isolation for Iran.

More importantly, if Ahmadinejad bows down, he risks unveiling the conditional footing of his own legitimacy. For almost five months, he has fought --- with much more success than we initially predicted --- to establish his position not only against the Green opposition but against the Supreme Leader. He gave way in the dispute over First Vice President Rahim-Mashai, only to bring his ally back into the Government as Chief of Staff, and he made an aggressive move to control of the Ministry of Intelligence. Against doubts within the establishment, Ahmadinejad got Khamenei's approval for his Inauguration and the Supreme Leader's intervention for Parliamentary endorsement of his Cabinet.

Now all that might be unsettled.

In one sense, this is business as usual. The Supreme Leader is the nominal Number One in the Islamic Republic, and that is especially pertinent on issues of Iran's foreign policy and national security.

But this business as usual comes in a most unusual situation. Those not so fond of Ahmadinejad, both outside and inside the political establishment, will see this as a cutting-back of the President's autonomy. And that trimming opens up political space for others to stake their own positions.

Your move, Mahmoud.
Monday
Oct262009

Latest Iran Video: The Media Fair Demonstrations (25 October)

The Latest on Iran (25 October): Expectation Rises

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Outside the Mossalla

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVIzknzeiag[/youtube]
Sunday
Oct252009

EA on the Road: A Day Out in London 

We're doing vital research today on the phenomenon of American football so updates will be limited. Do keep news, comments, and ideas coming in, and we'll check in as we begin to understand what a "tight end" is and assess the cultural significance of cheerleaders.
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