Afghanistan: CIA Trying to Set Up Talks with Taliban?

An interesting item from an Afghanistan news site. The article, while shaky at points (Central Investigation Agency?), intersects with other stories pointing to a quiet US effort to get Taliban to the negotiating table as well as President Hamid Karzai's public declarations, and has been picked up by analysts such as Juan Cole:

The US proposal to hold talks with the Afghan Taliban leadership, with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia playing the role of mediators, has fallen apart.

The US Central Investigation Agency had been working to hold secret talks with the Taliban leadership, with the help of the Saudi leadership and the General Intelligence Directorate of Saudi Arabia and the Pakistani leadership and the Inter Services Intelligence.

But with the Taliban hell-bent upon fighting the US-led international forces, the initiatives have failed to yield any desired result.

The News has quoted sources as saying the massive trust deficit between the two sides plus Taliban’s obstinacy had rendered the talks useless.

The US recently said it would not be opposed to the idea of holding talks with the Taliban to establish peace in the Afghanistan region.

Of late, the US intelligence services have been attempting to encourage the Taliban to discontinue their ties with Al-Qaeda.

However, sources privy to the issue, have said only middle rank Taliban leaders had agreed to talks, and any decision made by these leaders would not have made any major impact on Afghan insurgency.

Afghanistan: Mullah Omar's Message "End the Occupation" (25 November)

UPDATE 0900 GMT: President Hamid Karzai has said in his Eid al-Adha message, "I once again call upon our brothers, the Taliban, Hezb-e-Islami and everyone who is away from their land and who have taken up arms against their soil, to come back to their country for peace, stability, prosperity so that we Afghan people join hand in hand together to rebuild and prosper our beloved country."

On the occasion of the Muslim Feast of Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha), Mullah Omar, the leader of the "Old Taliban" in Afghanistan, put out a message. From the US Government Open Source Center via Juan Cole:

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. [Verse in Arabic]

I congratulate the mojahed [holy-warrior] nation of Afghanistan, the respectable families of martyrs, those who live in captivity of the enemy, the brave mojahedin [holy warriors] and all members of the Islamic Ummah [nation] on the auspicious occasion of Eid al-Adha. May this sacred day be the day of eternal freedom, pride, happiness, well-being and success for the entire Islamic Ummah. May Allah accept the hajj, acts of worship and prayers of hajjis [pilgrims to Mecca] and make their religious gathering a cause for unity among members of the Ummah.

“Let America Be America”: An Exit Strategy for Afghanistan

On the auspicious occasion of Eid al-Adha and based on the needs of time, I would also like to mention a few necessary issues:

1. To Muslim and mojahed nation

First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to my Muslim nation for welcoming the request of the Islamic Emirate not to participate in the American process under the name of elections and thus failing and exposing this American drama. I strongly believe that if the mojahed nation continues to extend its all-round and sincere cooperation, Allah will foil all conspiracies of the enemies of our country one after another. It is because of your sacrifices and the grace of Allah that the arrogant enemy is facing a major embarrassment and defeat and is panicking. In order to attain our Islamic objectives, you should continue your jihad and struggle and help the mojahedin who are sacrificing their lives. Strengthen the ranks of the mojahedin by joining them and by offering your wealth. I especially hope that you will take care of the families of holy martyrs and captives. Similarly, on the basis of your religious responsibility, cut all your ties with the mercenary administration in Kabul.

Those who have occupied our country and have held our nation hostage are now trying to use for some time the deceitful drama of talks the way they used the elections drama in order to secure their colonial objectives. The occupying enemy does not want talks as a result of which Afghanistan will become independent and which will end their occupation. They want talks that will ensure the continuation of their occupation and dirty colonial policies. However, the mojahed nation of Afghanistan will never accept talks that will legalize the continual presence of foreign forces in our beloved country.

Afghanistan is our home and nobody negotiates with anyone about the ownership of their home and about how to share sovereignty and management responsibilities of their home. Nobody will give up their right to be the owner of their home and nobody will wilfully lose their authority in their own home. The foreigners have taken over the home of the Afghans by force and cruelty. If they want a solution to the problem, they should first end their occupation of Afghanistan. Under the pretext of talks, the invading Americans want the mojahedin to surrender to them. This is something that is impossible.

Our nation has good experiences and clear principles to guide them resolve their problems and deal with the world. Therefore, the position of the Islamic Emirate is based on Islamic and national interests and strong reasons.

2. To brave mojahedin in the trenches

Your victory against the infidel occupiers is because of help from Allah. If in return you dedicate yourselves to pleasing Allah and serving the people in exchange for His help, Allah will be kinder to you, the enemy will not be able to stand against you and you will have the pride of having defeated the colonial superpower of this century. This is something that seems to be happening already, God is willing.

Follow the orders of Allah, stay united and refrain from disunity and differences among yourself.

Obey the commands of your superiors in all matters of jihad. Be very careful not to harm civilians and public property. Pay special attention to targeting occupiers, their mercenaries and important targets only while launching martyrdom (self-sacrificing) operations. It is a religious duty of every Muslim to avoid harming ordinary people. There is no Islamic justification for killing and injuring ordinary people nor is there any space in our holy religion for such an act.

The cunning enemy wants to defame mojahedin by launching bloody attacks among the people (in religious centres, mosques and similar places) and then call their attacks martyrdom attacks. Mojahedin should be vigilant about enemy tactics and never engage in this kind of activity.

You should prioritize pleasure of Allah and wellbeing of your oppressed nation. You should respect elders and prominent figures and be kind to youngsters. Ensure justice in social affairs and make sure that everyone's rights are upheld. You should fully implement the principles of the Islamic Emirate to better your jihad efforts.

Take advantage of existing experiences, advice and strong measures to prevent differences, complaints and casualties in military operations and in all other jihadi matters.

Similarly, take special care to protect your lives. Respect his rights if a member of the opposition surrenders to you, as this process is in progress.

The defeated Americans are trying to repeat the failed experience of the communists who, on the verge of their defeat, formed tribal battalions and secret armed groups under the name of tribal militias to create internal differences and to use these groups to take revenge on the mojahedin. I strongly believe that this tactic of the enemy will also fail and the enemy will be further defamed. But you should also try hard to fail the enemy's this latest plan with the help of your mojahed nation. You should punish those who supervise schism and sedition so that others learn a lesson and the dark history of wild and notorious militias is not repeated.

3. To the officials and employees of the slave Kabul administration

Stop oppressing and tormenting your Muslim and oppressed nation by serving as slaves to infidel occupiers. Foreign occupiers can never wish well for the Afghan nation. They intend to destroy the belief and sanctities of the people of Afghanistan. They plan to devour all material wealth of our country.

Slogans of reconstruction that they chant are empty words that they use to achieve their own objectives. They have pocketed back thousands of millions of dollars that they provided in aid for the so-called reconstruction of Afghanistan and they intend to entrap our country into a massive debt trap under a well-planned conspiracy.

They have come to enslave our brave nation. I call on all of you, like I have done in the past because of my responsibility, to stop living disgracefully. Stop being an enemy of your own people and instead of being shameless, stand with the mojahedin in the ranks of pride, nobility and faith.

The enemy wants to put a gun on your shoulder to kill your countrymen but you should try not to be associated with pro-Britain Shah Shoja and pro-Soviet [Nur Mohammad] Taraki, [Hafizollah] Amin, [Babrak] Karmal and Najib and carry the shame of sharing the same fate with them.

If you abandon the path of lies, you will be victorious in this world and in the world hereafter. You should realize that the magic spell of Western colonial power has been broken and realities on the ground in our beloved country show that the enemy is on the run. The caravan of truth is patiently marching forward towards its logical victorious conclusion. The brave mojahedin are improving with time and gaining experience in military, political, media and social affairs. Desperate efforts by the aggressors and their servants resemble sand castles in the way of the waves of ocean. Waves sent by the brave Afghan nation will prevail over the arrogance of the aggressor, Allah willing.

4. To the Organization of the Islamic Conference and so-called international human rights organizations

I call on the Organization of the Islamic Conference and all human rights organizations in the world to prevent the killing of civilians in Afghanistan by American and coalition forces. They should raise their voices and ask for punishment for this crime. Similarly, occupation forces led by America and the puppet administration in Kabul have in violation of all international principles set up prisons in different parts of the country where many of our innocent and poor countrymen are savagely tortured. All human rights organizations must take immediate action in line with their responsibility to stop these inhuman acts. Many of our prisoners have been martyred or maimed because of bad treatment and torture at these prisons.

If human rights organizations are not fulfilling their responsibility in order to please America and the West, they should remove their titles as human rights organizations.

5. To scholars, writers and authors

I request the independent scholars and politicians that they in all gatherings and meetings should support their innocent and oppressed people. In their books, publications and articles they should enlighten the minds of the people and the world. By using their words and their pens they should start jihad to pay for the debt for their God-given talent.

I call upon journalists and writers to play their role and make efforts supporting an independent and fully Islamic nation.

The media should convey the realities clearly to the people and should strive to tell the truth. I also call upon the caring and compassionate poets to strengthen the passion of mojahedin's achievements and struggle against the invaders and to strengthen people's sentiments for independence, honour, national unity, independence and Islamic dynamism.

6. To regional and neighbouring countries

The West's vicious expansionist colonialist plans in the region have paved the way for the overt and covert plots by known and mercenary murderers and filthy companies under the name of economic assistance and for resentment, hatred and discord among the nations of the region. These are in fact actions against human values, justice, peace, reciprocal relations and independence of the countries.

If countries of the region ignore the American colonialist interference and large-scale military presence in the region, then the entire region will remain unstable, backward and independent for ever. We confidently say that with help of Almighty God and the firm determination and resistance of the mojahedin, the enemy's ability has swiftly decreased and their vicious plans has been neutralized.

It is time that you all help and cooperate with us for freedom of our nation. The Islamic Emirates in case of mutual respect wants to take major steps to cooperate and work with all nations of the world. We see the whole region as our common home against colonialism and as a responsible force we want to play our role for the long-term peace and stability of the whole region.

7. To White House officials and pro-war Americans

Considering the current realities in Afghanistan the occupier Americans and their coalition is fully defeated in Afghanistan; a defeat which cannot be compensated by even by sending more troops or creating many illogical strategies. You must understand that the logic of force and oppression will not more work and you will not be able to use force and evil intentions to deceive the zealous Afghan people.

The people you chosen to fight with are those brave and warrior people who has the honour of toppling despotic empires in the world and has full skill and historical experience in this regard. Our Muslim nation will not allow the Western occupiers to undermine our freedom and vital values and to transform our nation as a base for plots of aggressors against other nations.

This is the nation which eliminated the Russian and British empires from the map of the world. Using the past experiences with full patience, force and high morale we are continuing our holy war against the defeated invaders. Based on our faith and high morale we believe in our victory and your defeat. You need to choose logical ways instead of flexing your muscle to end the occupation of Afghanistan.

Your aggressive policies will increase your people's enemies all over the world and will make life for you as hell, this is because war and aggression is no longer acceptable for anyone.

8. To Europe and in general to the freedom-loving Western nation

Your aggressive authorities have attacked and occupied our country under the pretext of war on terror in order to increase the wealth of a few capitalists. Our youths, elders, women and children die on a daily basis by your bombs and cannons. The occupiers attack our people homes during the day and destroy our green orchards, our national wealth and our educational and business centres. To fight such a cruelty and aggression is our legitimate and national right.

We would use our full rights with all the resources we have.

You should not be deceived by your aggressive officials who call their aggression as the war of necessity. This is not a war of necessity but it is in fact a war of aggression. The expression of war on terror is a fraudulent and false tool which your authorities have in their hands. It is your moral responsibility to raise your voice in order to prevent them from cruelty.

We are in favour of an Islamic system in our country where the rights of all men and women are protected in the light of Islamic principles. We want a self-sufficient system which should be based on the Islamic principles. We want a system whose domestic and foreign policy should neither harm others nor let others to harm it. The illogical concept of war against terrorism is an expression made by the Pentagon and Washington. Through this expression, they want to occupy the independent countries. They want to snatch their natural and economic resources. They want to abuse their religion and beliefs.

9. To the entire Muslim Ummah

[Verse in Arabic] I suggest to all Muslim brothers in all corners of the world that you should act upon the sacred instructions of Islam to regain your previous pride and glory Help your innocent Muslim brothers all across the world. Take a lead in performing jihad against the cruel aggressors. Stay away from disunity and pay careful attention to all those plots and conspiracies of the enemy which had been hatched for defaming Muslims.

Stay away from all those things which harm Muslims. Focus on defeating the aggressive enemy in the battlefield. Do not engage in aimless activities. Pay serious attention to your most important objective.

Muslims all over the world should pray for the protection and success of mojahedin in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine and other countries. They should provide moral and Islamic support to the mojahedin and support them in a justified Islamic way. Same as the United States and its supporters make overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Islamic world and provoke differences in the Islamic countries in order to ensure their own interests, therefore, all the Muslims must know their real enemy and should be alert to their conspiracies. [Verses of in Arabic and their translation]

The servant of Islam, Amir al-Momenin Mullah Mohammad Omar Mojahed

Source: Afghan Islamic Press news agency, Peshawar, in Pashto 1135 GMT 25 Nov 09

"Let America Be America": An Exit Strategy for Afghanistan

Afghanistan: The Great Lock ‘n Load Swindle
Afghanistan: Karzai’s Victory over the US

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Another Sunday, another set of articles and punditry setting out the US can "win" the conflict in Afghanistan. The latest spin is that of the US military supporting a series of local militias throughout the country to defeat the Taliban: this, I presume, is more a signal of Washington's careful distancing from the perceived weakness of the Karzai Government to sell a troop escalation. The New York Times packages the spin as a report by Dexter Filkins, while David Ignatius openly backs the initiative in his opinion piece in The Washington Post, "Afghan Tribes to the Rescue?"

In a guest column for Juan Cole's website, William Polk, a former member of the State Department and professor at the University of Chicago, puts forth an alternative: political and economic steps linked to a measured withdrawal of US troops:

In its war in Afghanistan, the United States has come to a crossroads. President Obama will be forced to choose one of four ways ahead. The choices are cruel, expensive and dangerous for our country; so we must be sure that he chooses the least painful, least expensive and safest of the possible choices.

The first possible choice is to keep on doing what we are now doing. That is, fighting the insurgency with about 60,000 American troops and 68,197 mercenaries at a cost of roughly $2,000 a day per person. That is, we now actually have a total complement of over 120,000 people on the public payroll at an overall cost, of roughly $100 billion a year. We can project a loss of a few hundred American soldiers a year and several thousand wounded. Our senior commander in the Central Command, General David Petraeus, tells us that we cannot win that war.

The second possible road ahead would involve adding substantial numbers of new troops. In General Petraeus’s counterinsurgency doctrine, the accepted ratio of soldiers to natives is 20 to 25 per thousand natives.1 Afghanistan today is a country of about 33 million. Even if we discount the population to the target group of Pashtuns, we will must deal with 15 or so million people. So when he and General Stanley McChrystal ask for 40,000, it can only be a first installment. Soon -- as the generals did in Vietnam – they will have to ask for another increment and then another, moving toward the supposedly winning number of 600,000 to 1.3 million. That is just the soldiers. Each soldier is now matched by a supporter, rather like medieval armies had flocks of camp followers, so those numbers will roughly double. Thus, over ten years, a figure often cited, or 40 years, which some of the leading neoconservatives have suggested, would pretty soon, as they say in Congress, involve “talking about real money.” In addition to the Congressionally-allocated outlay, the overall cost to our economy has not yet been summed up, but by analogy to the Iraq war, it will probably amount to upwards of $6 trillion.

Then there are the casualties: we have so far lost about a thousand -- or a quarter as many as in Iraq. Casualties we can count, but the number of seriously wounded keeps growing because many of the effects of exposure to modern weapons do not show up until later. We have no reliable figures yet on Afghanistan. In Iraq at least 100,000 of the one and a half million soldiers who served there suffered severe psychological damage and about 300,000 have reported post-traumatic stress disorder and a similar number have suffered brain injuries. Crassly put, these “walking wounded” will not only be unable fully to contribute to American society but will be a burden on it for many years to come. It has been estimated that dealing with a brain-injured soldier over his remaining life will cost about $5 million. Cancer, from exposure to depleted uranium is, only now coming into full effect. All in all, it is sobering to calculate that 40 percent of the soldiers who served in the 1991 Gulf war – which lasted only a hundred hours – are receiving disability payments. Inevitably, more “boots on the ground” will lead to more beds in hospitals.

General McChrystal has told us that we must have large numbers of additional troops to hold the territory we “clear.” He echoes what the Russian commanders told the Politburo: in a report on November 13, 1986, Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev commented that the Russians attempted the same strategy but admitted that it failed. “There is no piece of land in Afghanistan,” he said, “that has not been occupied by one of or soldiers at some time or another. Nevertheless, much of the territory stays in the hands of the terrorists. We control the provincial centers, but we cannot maintain political control over the territory we seize . . . Without a lot more men, this war will continue for a very, very long time.”

The Russian army fought a bloody, brutal campaign, using every trick or tool of counterinsurgency ever identified. The Russians killed a million Afghanis and turned about 5 million into refugees, but after a decade during which they lost 15,000 soldiers and virtually bankrupted the Soviet Union, they gave up and left. General McChrystal says it may take him a decade or more to “win.” But what “winning” means is unclear.

Third, we could marginally increase our troop strength. That is, adding only between 10,000 and 30,000 troops and a comparable number of mercenaries. Not the full complement that General McChrystal has now demanded. This road, according to Petraeus, McChrystal and their acolytes would lead to “mission failure.”

Not meeting the generals’ demands also brings forward the danger to the Obama administration of being charged with putting our soldiers at risk “with one hand tied behind their backs,” a phrase from the acrimonious aftermath of the Vietnam war which even General James Jones, President Obama’s director of the National Security Council, has recently repeated. The potential ugly campaign, against which even Henry Kissinger has warned us, could pose risks to our political culture and even to our legal structure: some military men are already talking about their restiveness in obeying civilian government. “You kind of get used to it after years of service” one Army general said at a convention in Washington last month. Forgetting the constitution, he continued, “We tend to live with it.” Maybe they will or maybe anger will be channeled into a further extension of the military into politics, intelligence and diplomacy.

For the first time that I know of in recent American history, the uniformed military have created what amounts to a pressure group of their own. Generals Petraeus and McChrystal are the leaders but, by influencing or controlling promotions panels, they have fostered the advancement of middle grade and junior officers who agree with them. Some have been brought into a group called “the Colonels’ council.” And numbers of retired senior officers have joined not only in what President Eisenhower called the “military-industrial complex” but have become the opinion-makers on foreign policy in the media. Private soldiers and non-commissioned officers have, at the same time, become a major component of the private armies of such groups as Xe (formerly Blackwater) and form an active part of the constituency of the right wing of the Republican Party.

In the dangerous months and years ahead, if this road is taken, we are apt to hear echoes – particularly in the next presidential election --of the post Vietnam rhetoric that the civilians sold out the military. In short, while this option sounds moderate and “business-like” I believe that it is the worst option for President Obama and, more importantly, for the nation.

Or, fourth, we could Get out.

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