Fact x Importance = News: The Stories We're Watching

Top Story of the Day: Hillary or Nicolas?

Nope, it's not Senator Clinton, who may or may not be the next Secretary of State.

Nor is it the Global Financial Summit --- yet. Although President Bush welcomed the guests last night, the serious talkin' doesn't start until today. And even then, given the relatively low profile the US will have --- the Bush Administration is almost paralysed, and the Obama folks have chosen to stay in the background --- it will be up to the Europeans to make the running.

No, the surprise headline for this morning is the rocket that French President Nicolas Sarkozy sent to Washington. Or, rather, the US missiles that he is trying to hand back to President Bush.

In talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Sarkozy "joined Russia in condemning the Pentagon's plans to install missile defence bases in central Europe yesterday and backed President Dmitri Medvedev's previously ignored calls for a new pan-European security pact".

The New York Times spectacularly misses the significance, somehow deciding that it lies in "Russia Backs Off on Europe Missile Threat". Russia's feint at putting missiles on its western borders was a political manoeuvre, and to the extent that it has brought Sarkozy away from (or reinforced his existing opposition to) US missile defence, it's worked.

The French President's statement isn't a detachment of Europe from the US. His proposal is that the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe, to which both Russia and the US belong, discuss the security pact next summer.

It is, however, a distancing of France from not only missile defence but the US-preferred attempt to expand NATO's reach. That is going to prompt an immediate tangle between France and governments such as Czechoslovakia, which are still clinging to the US missile defence plan, but I suspect Sarkozy is looking to Germany for backing. And I think --- with a smile --- that will put a marker down for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

All in all, the timing of Sarkozy's announcement should add a bit of political spice to the financial talks in the US today.

Under-noticed Story of the Day: Food rather than Rockets

The sad ritual is again being played out on the Israel-Gaza border. The Israelis have made tank raids across the border, and Palestianian groups have lobbed rockets into southern Israel. The Israelis send out their Government spokesmen and, as few US and British media outlets will speak to a Hamas representative, the narrative of Tel Aviv standing firm against Hamas-backed terror gets another paragraph.

The far-from-insignificant story behind the story is the effects of the Israeli blockade on Gaza. On Wednesday, Juan Cole highlighted a UN report that it is running out of food to distribute in the besieged area. The Washington Post in cautious terms --- "residents are warning of a humanitarian crisis because Israel has sealed the territory's borders" --- has now picked up on this, but it is The Independent of London that highlights the impact:

The Israeli blockade of Gaza has led to a steady rise in chronic malnutrition among the 1.5 million people living in the strip, according to a leaked report from the Red Cross.

Speculation of the Day: Obama and Gitmo

William Glaberson in the New York Times pens the analysis that Barack Obama's "pledge to close the detention center is bringing to the fore thorny questions under consideration by his advisers". Significantly, however, this is no comment from the Obama camp.

Adam Cohen in the NewYork Times has a more substantial development. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, in my opinion one of the most honourable men in Congress, is not going to let President Obama rest in indecision on issues such as Camp X-Ray, surveillance, and other civil rights issues:

Mr. Feingold has been compiling a list of areas for the next president to focus on, which he intends to present to Mr. Obama. It includes amending the Patriot Act, giving detainees greater legal protections and banning torture, cruelty and degrading treatment. He wants to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to restore limits on domestic spying. And he wants to roll back the Bush administration's dedication to classifying government documents.

Negotiation of the Week: Talks with the Taliban?

As violence escalates in Afghanistan, The Independent of London reported on Thursday: "The Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, will today brief Gordon Brown on talks being held with the Taliban with the aim of ending the conflict in his country."

This is a continuing development. Karzai and the Pakistani Government are now pressing the option of discussions with the "moderate" Taliban. Western governments are not necessarily averse to the idea, with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates saying it should be considered. However, with the Bush Administration in a no-win position --- it gets no credit if talks eventually succeed under an Obama-led effort and it takes the rap if the discussions collapse before 20 January --- this story will be carried forward by folks outside the US.

An Obama Presidency: The Niggles Begin

As I was on the move, I wrote this before reading today's papers. The Times of London is claiming, based on information from "aides", that "Barack Obama will move swiftly to close Guantanamo Bay as soon as he takes office."

With a couple of colleagues from Clinton Institute, listened to a speech by Senator Patrick Leahy at University College Dublin.

Leahy, a skillful speaker, gave a short set-piece presentation about the excitement and hope of the Obama victory, includoing the possibility of rebuilding US image abroad.

Not much detail, however, so I thought I would press in question-and-answer. "Given the Bush Administration's vast expansion of executive power, for example, on torture, detention, surveillance, and the use of signing statements, how soon could we expect Obama and the Democratic-led Congress to roll back those powers?"

That's when the warning flags came out. Leahy was forceful enough in saying that the US Government had forgotten the basic maxim, "Follow the laws", so American image as promoter of freedom had been tarnished. And it should be noted that Leahy, as chairman of Senate Judiciary Committee, has given Bush Administration a rough ride over its re-interpretation of laws and power, especially in the case of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.

But he wouldn't grasp the nettle on the question. He merely said, "I hope some of these executive powers will be rolled back; if not, there will be pressure." That pressure was undefined, and the rest of the answer was a stall on whether Obama and Congress revoke powers on torture, detention, surveillance, and military operations.

And there were more disturbing omissions and deflections. In response to another question, Leahy said, "We're going to need a bipartisan coalition to close [the US detention facility] at Guantanamo".

Ummm, no, you don't. Just as President Bush could open authorise detention with an executive order, so President Obama could stop revoke it with a signature. The issue has nothing to do with Congressional authority.

Translation? I think Leahy is still worried that the Democrats will look "soft" on national security if they challenge --- at least without assured support from some Republicans --- the Bush Administration's grab of executive power.

That impression is reinforced by Leahy's (non)-answer to another excellent question: "Given the Bush Administration's effective institutionalisation of power and Government infra-structure, for example, through the extension of military authority, bases, and planning, could the Obama Presidency do much to push this back?" Leahy spoke for several minutes in reply, but I could not find a single word of substance to jot down.