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Entries in Global (4)

Wednesday
Nov192008

Will Closing Guantanamo Be Change We Can Believe In?

As the president-elect undoubtedly is finding out, there is no easy answer to Guantanamo. In an interview on 60 Minutes, he affirmed that his administration would shut down the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay. The debate has shifted on this with the departure of the Bush administration. There is no question that Guantanamo should be shut down, although only 29% of Americans favour this and the Republicans may still choose to make it a political issue. Guantanamo has damaged the image of the U.S. internationally. It also should be remembered that Guantanamo is the most public symbol of a secret and global prison system operated by the U.S., the extent of which is still not clear.


The bigger issue is how to shut it down. There are two main problems: 1. what to do with those in the camp who are innocent and 2. what to do with those who are suspected of crimes.


1. With respect to the first group, there are two points to this: some countries will refuse or have refused to accept their citizens back—some would welcome them back with open arms holding clubs to beat them with—this is a problem the British government has run into and which it tried to get guarantees from countries such as Libya about. It is highly doubtful that the U.S. would be willing to accept the prisoners since this would be politically damaging for the Obama administration with the Republicans having a field day in portraying Obama as soft on terrorism. The more likely solution is that the U.S. will, in effect, bribe a third country to take the prisoners.





    2. Then there are those, perhaps as many as 80, suspected of crimes who the U.S. wishes to put on trial—the problem here is there seems no easy solution—the military commissions lack credibility and appear not to fit with the restoration of legality to the war on terror as sought by the Obama administration even though they continue to be used and, in a case that received, almost no publicity because it happened the day before the U.S. election, a commission sentenced an acknowledged al-Qaeda activist to a life sentence. The alternative legal approach is to then put them through a regular criminal court in the U.S.—here problems would arise over the denial of rights to prisoners—held incommunicado, held without charge, and subjected to “enhanced interrogation methods” otherwise known as torture. Some evidence would not be allowed into a regular court of law because of the way it was acquired or because of the sensitivity of the information. Imagine the reaction in the U.S. if Khaled Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of 9-11 and subjected to water boarding by the CIA, were to be acquitted. There is now talk of the need to create the power to indefinitely detain suspects along the lines of the what is now deployed by the British government to deal with those who can neither be put on trial nor sent back to their home country.





      This suggests a third path with the creation of some form of national security court that would not be as transparent as a regular court but which would have a greater air of legality and legitimacy than the military approach. It would be making the best of a bad situation (one more poisoned chalice from the Bush administration) although it undoubtedly would disappoint many of Obama’s most fervent supporters.

      Monday
      Nov172008

      Fact x Importance = News (Nov 17)

      I'm fully recovered after spending Saturday evening at a friend's parents', after his Californian mum organised a party to celebrate Obama's victory. The pressure was on when word got around just before the election-themed quiz that I was an American Studies postgraduate, but luckily I put everything I'd learnt reading Enduring America to good use and helped my team ensure victory:



      I wanted us to be called 'The Maverick Renegades', but apparently the name was too long.

      What other important stories happened last week?:

      Let us know what you think of these stories, and what other stories you've been watching, in the comments.
      Saturday
      Nov152008

      Fact x Importance = News: The Stories We're Watching

      Top Story of the Day: Hillary or Nicolas?

      Nope, it's not Senator Clinton, who may or may not be the next Secretary of State.

      Nor is it the Global Financial Summit --- yet. Although President Bush welcomed the guests last night, the serious talkin' doesn't start until today. And even then, given the relatively low profile the US will have --- the Bush Administration is almost paralysed, and the Obama folks have chosen to stay in the background --- it will be up to the Europeans to make the running.

      No, the surprise headline for this morning is the rocket that French President Nicolas Sarkozy sent to Washington. Or, rather, the US missiles that he is trying to hand back to President Bush.

      In talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Sarkozy "joined Russia in condemning the Pentagon's plans to install missile defence bases in central Europe yesterday and backed President Dmitri Medvedev's previously ignored calls for a new pan-European security pact".

      The New York Times spectacularly misses the significance, somehow deciding that it lies in "Russia Backs Off on Europe Missile Threat". Russia's feint at putting missiles on its western borders was a political manoeuvre, and to the extent that it has brought Sarkozy away from (or reinforced his existing opposition to) US missile defence, it's worked.

      The French President's statement isn't a detachment of Europe from the US. His proposal is that the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe, to which both Russia and the US belong, discuss the security pact next summer.

      It is, however, a distancing of France from not only missile defence but the US-preferred attempt to expand NATO's reach. That is going to prompt an immediate tangle between France and governments such as Czechoslovakia, which are still clinging to the US missile defence plan, but I suspect Sarkozy is looking to Germany for backing. And I think --- with a smile --- that will put a marker down for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

      All in all, the timing of Sarkozy's announcement should add a bit of political spice to the financial talks in the US today.

      Under-noticed Story of the Day: Food rather than Rockets

      The sad ritual is again being played out on the Israel-Gaza border. The Israelis have made tank raids across the border, and Palestianian groups have lobbed rockets into southern Israel. The Israelis send out their Government spokesmen and, as few US and British media outlets will speak to a Hamas representative, the narrative of Tel Aviv standing firm against Hamas-backed terror gets another paragraph.

      The far-from-insignificant story behind the story is the effects of the Israeli blockade on Gaza. On Wednesday, Juan Cole highlighted a UN report that it is running out of food to distribute in the besieged area. The Washington Post in cautious terms --- "residents are warning of a humanitarian crisis because Israel has sealed the territory's borders" --- has now picked up on this, but it is The Independent of London that highlights the impact:

      The Israeli blockade of Gaza has led to a steady rise in chronic malnutrition among the 1.5 million people living in the strip, according to a leaked report from the Red Cross.

      Speculation of the Day: Obama and Gitmo

      William Glaberson in the New York Times pens the analysis that Barack Obama's "pledge to close the detention center is bringing to the fore thorny questions under consideration by his advisers". Significantly, however, this is no comment from the Obama camp.

      Adam Cohen in the NewYork Times has a more substantial development. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, in my opinion one of the most honourable men in Congress, is not going to let President Obama rest in indecision on issues such as Camp X-Ray, surveillance, and other civil rights issues:

      Mr. Feingold has been compiling a list of areas for the next president to focus on, which he intends to present to Mr. Obama. It includes amending the Patriot Act, giving detainees greater legal protections and banning torture, cruelty and degrading treatment. He wants to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to restore limits on domestic spying. And he wants to roll back the Bush administration's dedication to classifying government documents.

      Negotiation of the Week: Talks with the Taliban?

      As violence escalates in Afghanistan, The Independent of London reported on Thursday: "The Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, will today brief Gordon Brown on talks being held with the Taliban with the aim of ending the conflict in his country."

      This is a continuing development. Karzai and the Pakistani Government are now pressing the option of discussions with the "moderate" Taliban. Western governments are not necessarily averse to the idea, with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates saying it should be considered. However, with the Bush Administration in a no-win position --- it gets no credit if talks eventually succeed under an Obama-led effort and it takes the rap if the discussions collapse before 20 January --- this story will be carried forward by folks outside the US.
      Monday
      Nov102008

      Fact x Importance = News (Nov 10)

      Other stories that caught our eye last week:

      Discuss these stories- and let us know what else we've missed- in the comments below.