Israel Analysis: Dark Clouds Over Netanyahu Before Washington Visit (Yenidunya)

On Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Labor Party colleagues that there was close and intimate security cooperation between Israel and the US, with both parties waiting for the next steps in the diplomatic arena to ensure a long-term “special security relationship” and defend Israel’s military superiority in the region. Barak added that only a “decisive Israeli effort” to break the diplomatic stalemate over Palestine “can free Israel from the international siege.”

Later in the day, in a conference at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Barak talked about withdrawal and disengagement from Gaza, predicting: “Israel will have to take additional unilateral steps.”

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In advance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with President Barack Obama, this was a warning to the Government.

There has been speculation that Labor could leave the coalition if Netanyahu failed to control the coalition or to expand it by bringing in the "centrist" Kadima. Barak underlined the significance of the freeze on Israeli settlements in the West Bank,  set to expire at the end of September, and US mid-term Congressional elections in November, saying that the next few months will be “certainly important”.

Despite Barak's warning, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman showed no change in his party's agenda: "There is absolutely no chance of reaching a Palestinian state until the year 2012. One can dream and imagine, but we are far from reaching an agreement."

It is not just Lieberman but also Israeli conservatives hindering Netanyahu's bargaining position. Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat approved the plan calling for the razing of 22 Palestinian homes to make room for a tourist center in the Silwan neighborhood of East Jerusalem.

According to documents obtained by Haaretz, the department which inspects building plans before  submission to the planning committee found no less than 250 defects in the Silwan plan. Just a week before the plan was approved, Jerusalem city engineer Shlomo Eshkol submitted a list of 30 criticisms of the plan and demanded significant changes.

The Jerusalem municipality's legal adviser, Yossi Havilio, also found that the plan did not meet legal standards. To get around the difficulty, Barkat privately hired a lawyer to oversee the plan on behalf of the municipality.

All of these internal complications arise as US special envoy George Mitchell, before the fifth round of talks due to start on Thursday, has expressed to Netanyahu his wish to see more movement by Israel on core issues.

A senior U.S. administration official told Haaretz : "We want things to move faster." Then he added, "To date there has been insufficient progress."

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Following the approval of the demolition of 22"illegal" Arab homes in the Silwan neighbourhood of East Jerusalem, the Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee is set to approve a master plan, the first since 1959, calling for the expansion of Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. The proposal is largely based on construction on privately-owned Arab property. The committee will give those who object to the plan 60 days to submit their reservations.

According to the non-government organisation Ir Amim, while the plan calls for 13,500 new residential units in East Jerusalem for Palestinians, updated demographic studies indicate that this amount barely represents half the minimum needs for the Arab population by 2030. Ir Amim also claims the plan allows for Palestinian construction in the north and south of the capital  but barely provides for an expansion of Arab construction projects in the centre of the city.

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On Sunday, about 150 protesters clashed with the settlers' security guards in Silwan. Six Border Police officers were wounded by stones, and dozens of women and children suffered from tear gas inhalation after the Israeli forces began firing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House on 6 July, after a fifth round of indirect talks between the US envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, Israel, and the Palestinians Authority.

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week and met Vice President Joe Biden, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On Sunday, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen met with Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Pentagon and Defense Ministry officials also held talks in Israel within the framework of the two countries' strategic dialogue.

Israel's ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren,was also in Israel to give a briefing at the Foreign Ministry. According to Israeli diplomats, Oren said relations between the two countries are not in a crisis because a crisis is something that passes; however, using a geological analogy, Oren said, "Relations are in the state of a tectonic rift in which continents are drifting apart." (Oren has now denied he made the remark.)

Yediot Ahronot's Shimon Shiffer claims that Obama will demand that Netanyahu lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip entirely and give permission for Palestinians to leave the Strip freely through Israeli border crossings. If true, then the Israeli Prime Minister may use the East Jerusalem expansion as a bargaining card, trading it for some conditions on the lifting of the blockade.

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Following this week's "redevelopment" plan --- the demolition of 22 houses in East Jerusalem's Silwan neighborhood --- Israel's Public Security Minister Yitzhak Ahronovitch told the Knesset on Wednesday that Israeli police expects "widespread disturbances" in and around the area.

The UN later  Wednesday called Israel's plan to demolish Arab homes "unhelpful" and "contrary to international law".

"The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the decision by the Jerusalem municipality to advance planning for house demolitions and further settlement activity in the area of Silwan," UN Chief Ban Ki-moon's press office said.

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On Thursday, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) called on Israel to halt the development of new settlements in occupied territories and East Jerusalem.

However, as the end of the current freeze on settlement constructions in the West Bank approaches, the Likud Central Committee voted on Thursday to resume building both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

There is one twist in the story: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not participate in the meeting, thus escaping for the moment criticism from Washington (for endorsing the renewal) or from the Israeli public (for opposing it).

September will be a decisive month on the issue. Until then, Netanyahu may be looking for the conditions to turn indirect discussions into direct talks, moving the burden of responsibility from settlements to Palestinian participation in negotiations.