Afghanistan: A Winnable War? (Kagan & Kagan)

I should point out that the question mark in the title is mine. For Frederick and Kimberly Kagan, writing in The Weekly Standard, there is no doubt that the US can triumph in Afghanistan.

That makes the ratio of assertion v. information in their article even more striking. Apart from two paragraphs on the "Marjah offensive", there is nothing of substance on Afghan politics and society. And even the passage on Marjah sweeps away the significance of "the incapacity of the Afghan government to deliver either justice or basic services to its people". (Indeed, it's notable that when the Kagans try to prop up the notion of likely American success, they talk about the internal dimension in Iraq rather than Afghanistan.)

Beyond Afghanistan: The US and the Poison of the “Long War” (Bacevich)

Success in Afghanistan is possible. The policy that President Obama announced in December and firmly reiterated last week is sound. So is the strategy that General Stanley McChrystal devised last summer and has been implementing this year.

There have been setbacks and disappointments during this campaign, and adjustments will likely be necessary. These are inescapable in war. Success is not by any means inevitable. Enemies adapt and spoilers spoil. But both panic and despair are premature. The coalition has made significant military progress against the Taliban, and will make more progress as the last surge forces arrive in August. Although military progress is insufficient by itself to resolve the conflict, it is a vital precondition. As The New York Times editors recently noted, “Until the insurgents are genuinely bloodied, they will keep insisting on a full restoration of their repressive power.” General David Petraeus knows how to bloody insurgents—and he also knows how to support and encourage political development and conflict resolution. He takes over the mission with the renewed support of the White House.

Neither the recent setbacks nor the manner of McChrystal’s departure should be allowed to obscure the enormous progress he has made in setting conditions for successful campaigns over the next two years. The internal, structural changes he made have revolutionized the ability of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to conduct counterinsurgency operations. He oversaw the establishment of a three-star NATO training command that has accelerated both the expansion and the qualitative improvement of the Afghan National Security Forces in less than a year. He introduced a program of partnering ISAF units and headquarters with Afghan forces that had worked wonders in Iraq—and he improved on it. He oversaw the introduction of a three-star operational headquarters to develop and coordinate countrywide campaign plans. He has managed the massive planning and logistical burden of receiving the influx of surge forces and putting them immediately to use in a country with little infrastructure.

While undertaking these enormous tasks of internal reorganization, he has also taken the fight to the enemy. The controversies about his restrictions on the operations of Special Forces and rules of engagement that limit the use of destructive force in inhabited areas have obscured the fact that both Special Forces and conventional forces have been fighting harder than ever before and disrupting and seriously damaging enemy networks and strongholds. Targeted operations against Taliban networks have increased significantly during McChrystal’s tenure, and the Taliban’s ability to operate comfortably in Afghanistan has been greatly reduced. ISAF forces have killed, captured, or driven off numerous Taliban shadow governors and military commanders. They have pushed into areas the Taliban had controlled and eliminated safe-havens.

The story of Marjah is particularly illustrative. Before this year, Marjah was a Taliban sanctuary, command-and-control node, and staging area. Taliban fighters based there had been able to support operations against ISAF and coalition forces throughout Helmand Province. Lasting progress in Helmand was simply not possible without clearing Marjah. McChrystal cleared it. The Taliban naturally are trying to regain control of it. ISAF and the ANSF are trying to prevent them.

The attempt to import “governance” rapidly into the area is faltering, which is not surprising considering the haste with which the operation was conducted (driven at least partly by the perceived pressure of the president’s July 2011 timeline). The attempt was also ill-conceived. Governance plans for Marjah emphasized extending the influence of the central government to an area that supported insurgents precisely because it saw the central government as threatening and predatory. Although ISAF persuaded President Hamid Karzai to remove the most notorious malign actor in the area from power, Karzai allowed him to remain in the background, stoking fears among the people that he would inevitably return. The incapacity of the Afghan government to deliver either justice or basic services to its people naturally led to disappointment as well, partly because ISAF’s own rhetoric had raised expectations to unrealistic levels.

The biggest problem with the Marjah operation, however, is that it was justified and explained on the wrong basis. Marjah is not a vitally important area in principle, even in Helmand. It is important because of its role as a Taliban base camp. It was so thoroughly controlled by the insurgents that the prospects for the rapid reestablishment of governance were always dim. It was fundamentally a military objective rather than a political one, and McChrystal made a mistake by offering Marjah as a test case of ISAF’s ability to improve Afghan governance. What matters about Marjah is that the enemy can no longer use it as a sanctuary and headquarters. ISAF’s military success there has allowed the coalition to launch subsequent operations in the Upper Helmand River Valley, particularly the more strategically important contested area around Sangin. The Marjah operation has so far succeeded in what it should have been intended to do. The aspects that are faltering should not have been priorities in that location.

Kandahar differs from Marjah in almost all respects. Kandahar City is not now a Taliban stronghold, although the Taliban are present in some force in its western districts and can stage attacks throughout the city. The Taliban had controlled the vital neighboring district of Arghandab until newly arrived American forces began contesting it in September 2009. The insurgents remain very strong in Zhari, Panjwayi, and Maiwand Districts to the west and south of Kandahar City, but they do not control any of those areas as completely as they controlled Marjah.

Read rest of article....

UPDATED Iran Snap Analysis: Waiting for the Crumbling?

UPDATED: An EA reader responds to our thoughts with a second account from Iran: "Our family are rural. This is EXACTLY what my relative found on the economy. 'They' [Iranian authorities] are terrifed of the sanctions."

For me, the most striking statement on Monday came not from a President or a Supreme Leader, not from a Mousavi or Karroubi, but from a phone call from Tehran, summarised by an EA reader:

"A friend reported rising unemployment and prices for food and other commodities: meat costs 12 Euro/kg (about $6.50 per pound), i.e., the price has doubled within a year. He also said that the people have adopted a policy of passive resistance, watching the economy crumble, so that the regime cracks down."

Only one report and, of course, it could be exaggerated or even wishful thinking. But on 7 Tir --- yesterday's anniversary of the 1981 bombing that killed many in Iran's leadership, leaving martyrs such as Ayatollah Beheshti --- there was little to counter that message.



President Ahmadinejad once again focused on (took refuge in?) the "international", making the pointless declaration that Iran would "punish" the West for sanctions by refusing to hold uranium enrichment discussions until late August. The Supreme Leader's office, hoping to obscure the doubts about Iran's judicial process, issued a tangential statement denouncing the "propaganda" of the opposition and foreign media.

That was about that. The only public gathering that was noted were "hundreds" of Iranian who made a synchronised appearance in front of the French embassy to chant against foreign perfidy and the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, who carried out the 1981 attack.

Meanwhile, throughout the day, the drip-drip-drip of  economic and political news, pointing to erosion and division, continued....

World Cup Special: It's Mourning in England (Matlin)

Last Saturday night, Team USA was knocked out of football's World Cup. But how many Americans noticed? According to an “in-depth” survey carried out after the defeat by Ghana, most were unaware of the World Cup, , and the vast majority of those who recognised something was happening didn’t really care that much.

(OK, full disclosure: the survey, better known as a straw poll, was carried out by the writer who e-mailed and skyped a number of friends and relations in the States.)

A day later, England was defeated by Germany, the olde football enemy. Since 1966, the one time England won the World Cup, defeating the Germans in the final, Germany has had the high sign over the English: 1990 World Cup, 1996 European Championship, and now England's worst-ever defeat before its biggest-ever audience.

It's safe to say many noticed. The good people of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have wallowed in our dismay. Television and newspapers have carried out a 48-hour post-mortem on the woeful performance of the England players. Those who were enthusiastic are now merciless.

The story is not confined to the sports pages. It is front page news, with the castigation of overpaid players, some of whom earn £6 million –-- that’s pounds not dollars –-- before they receive cheques for endorsements and image rights. The England manager is paid £4 million and probably has a large severance package waiting for him at the end of the week.The diatribe against all concerned in the England defeat will be conducted not only by the media and the pundits but also by the 30 million prospective new England managers until mid-August, when the football season starts here. Then much will be forgiven.

I have asked myself why things are so different in America. Sure, I expect the people of Indiana were put out when the Indianapolis Colts were upset in this year’s football (American rather than international version) Super Bowl but was there a call for mass punishment or at least dismissals? Not really

It's just not the same because it is rare for America to produce a national team. In American football, this has never happened --- after all, there is no other nation to play, except maybe for Canada (and with their inferior variety of the game, they could easily be vanquished). The Olympics are a debatable exception --- basketball, baseball, andice hockey are graced by Team USA --- but the traumas are few and far between: the 1972 basketball upset by the Soviet Union (and they cheated, they had to have cheated) has faded, and so what if the US got trounced by the Cubans at some random point in baseball?

So this week, when those EA readers who are American contemplate the difference between our two countries, please know that a depression, both emotional and economic, will have settled over England and will not be lifted for some weeks. If our neophyte Prime Minister, David Cameron (who apparently watched the World Cup debacle alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel) and his coalition partners looked for a Three Lions win to relieve the economic plight of this small island, they have been sadly disappointed.

We English are now officially in mourning.

The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In a decree issued on Monday,the Supreme Leader gave amnesty to 708 prisoners,based on the recommendations of the Iranian judiciary. No indication that any of those whose sentences were commuted were political prisoners.

1800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Finally, information arrives of French oil company Total's cessation of supplies to Iran (see 1020 GMT). "I can confirm that we have suspended [gasoline] sales to Iran," said spokesman Paul Floren.

1745 GMT: Loss of Expertise in State Department? Laura Rozen reports that John Limbert, the first ever Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Affairs, is leaving his post in July.

NEW Thinking Human Rights: Citizens, Technology, and the “Right to Protect” (Mazzucelli)
Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)
The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

Limbert was distinctive in the Department because he was a fluent Persian speaker and held a Ph.D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies. He was one of 52 Americans held in the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979-81.

Limbert is saying that he is stepping down because he has only a one-year leave of absence from his academic job at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis.

1435 GMT: Karroubi's 7 Tir Moment. Meeting families of those killed in the 1981 bombing, Mehdi Karroubi dec;ared, “Recent events and the attacks on the members of the Parliament and other senior and prominent political figures prove that those who are in power today are after eliminating and isolating the figures and revolutionary fellows. [They are after] not only a certain political party but even the independent individuals from the country and the scene of the Revolution."

Karroubi added, "Unity will never be achieved by words and slogans. Unity will never be achieved by applying pressure and force, arrests, long detentions, insults and disrespect of senior religious figures, intimidation and threats, unjust disqualifications, shutting down the press, preventing the activities of political parties, and using these kinds of ridiculous methods. Unity will not be achieved by calling the great nation of Iran 'dust and dirt'."

Karroubi concluded, "Comforting the families of victims, release of political prisoners, identifying and firm and legal confrontation with those who use violence against the people, lifting the ban on media and legal activities of the political parties, freedom of speech, tolerance and listening to the opposition as long as they don’t use weapons, and the return to the principles of the Constitution and the high values of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution can be the essential steps toward establishing unity in the society.”

1430 GMT: Larijani the Nationalist. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani may be feuding with the President, but he is also trying to match Ahmadinejad phrase-for-phrase for Iranian defiance of the West. He has used a speech to a crowd in western Iran to address "the West": "You will have to bury your wish for shutting Iran's nuclear activities. The era that you could change conditions in Iran has ended. Today the (Iranian) people protect their national achievements and lay emphasis on them."

1325 GMT: The Universities Row. Rooz is claiming that, at the first meeting of Azad University trustees since the Parliament v. President argument over control, Ahmadinejad's appointed representatives were not allowed into the meeting. And Mir Hossein Mousavi was an invited guest.

Javan Online, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, is claiming that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have met to plot over the issue.

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad "We Will, We Will Punish You". Unsurprising news of the day --- the President has chosen on 7 Tir to devote his attention to foreign challenges.

In an announcement which will no doubt bring much gnashing of teeth in Washington (or not), President Ahmadinejad told a news conference that Iran was prepared to return to uranium enrichment talks but only by late August, during the second half of the Muslim festival of Ramadan.

"It's a punishment to teach them a lesson to know how to have a dialogue with nations," he said. And he added the chest-pumping frosting on the cake with a warning to any power thinking of inspecting Iranian ships: "If they make the slightest mistake we will definitely retaliate."

Ahmadinejad's most notable reference to the internal situation was to claim, in the face of tougher US and UN sanctions, "If we decide today, we can halve our gasoline consumption overnight without damaging our economic growth."

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that heavy prison sentences have been handed down to four student activists in Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.

1040 GMT: And Now Khamenei.... The supposed highlight from today's statement by the Supreme Leader: "One of the big dangers is that political propaganda by various parties, newspapers, and foreign media will affect the right channel of judgment and legal proceedings."

1030 GMT: Posing for 7 Tir. Ahh, here we go. "Hundreds" of Iranians have gathered outside the French Embassy in Tehran in response to a demonstration in Paris last week by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

The NCRI is the overseas political committee for the People's Mohajedin Organization of Iran and the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). The MKO carried out the bombing on 7 Tir (28 June) in 1981 that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic.

1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. A spokesman for Spain's largest oil company Repsol has confirmed that it is withdrawing from a contract to develop part of the South Pars gas field in Iran. Repsol's partner, Royal Dutch Shell, has declined to confirm whether it is withdrawing, although a spokesman said it will comply with any international trade restrictions.

(This is all window-dressing. Repsol and Shell suspended plans months ago, and Iran has already moved to give the projects to Iranian companies, including firms connected with the Revolutionary Guard.)

Britain's Financial Times is also putting out a report that France's Total is halting gasoline/petrol sales to Iran but, curiously, has no source for the claim.

0854 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. Why have I not been posting updates on the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday statements about an Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza? Well, because I never thought this was an initiative likely to come off, amidst the politics of Tehran and other countries.

For those keeping score, the latest report is that the Iranian Red Crescent has cancelled the sailing of a ship, blaming Egypt as well as Israel for preventing passage.

0850 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). More on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement for 7 Tir (see 0720 GMT). ...

The pro-reformist Radio Zamaneh publishes extracts and has no doubt that Rafsanjani is aiming at those in power: “The enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks....Divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”

0745 GMT: The Regime and 7 Tir (So Far). There are no significant headlines in Fars News marking the 1981 bombing, and the Islamic Republic News Agency's reference is defensive, to say the least: a "member of the Assembly of Experts" says that the memory of Ayatollah Beheshti, slain on 7 Tir, does not belong to any one group.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian state media are headlining the opening of a new phase of a major steel complex in Natanz, with President Ahmadinejad attending the ceremony.

Not-so-happy news, carried by Iranian Labor News Agency, is that malnutrition amongst children has risen 3 percent during the Ahmadinejad Government.

0725 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, has asserted that "the independence of judiciary"" has not yet been seen.

Larijani's brother Sadegh is the head of the judiciary.

0720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Statement. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, in a meeting with the families of the martyrs of the 1981 bombing, that today anyone who causes division among the people --- even if it claim good intentions --- is making a great and strategic mistake: “Today in a situation that we need unity more than before some visible and invisible hands are playing the division drum.”

As always, those who cause division are not specifically identified by Rafsanjani; however, he did give an important signal by strongly condemning the attacks against senior clerics and the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini by pro-government groups.

0700 GMT: Today is the 29th anniversary of the bombing in Tehran that killed 73 leading officials of the young Islamic Republic, including the head of judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

We'll be having a look to see how the day is commemorated, but early signs are that it will be accompanied, if not overshadowed, by the tensions within the current Republic. The Beheshti family, in a pointed protest, have already cancelled a memorial ceremony, and reformist groups and opposition groups have pointed to 7 Tir as a reminder of the betrayals of the Government. As the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri declare today, "It is not the Revolution that eats its children, but rather the opportunists that were opposed to the Revolution in the past, who change colour and destroy the children of the Revolution.”

Meanwhile....

Palestine Latest: Israel to Use "United Jerusalem" Card against Obama's Gaza Demand?

Following the approval of the demolition of 22"illegal" Arab homes in the Silwan neighbourhood of East Jerusalem, the Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee is set to approve a master plan, the first since 1959, calling for the expansion of Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. The proposal is largely based on construction on privately-owned Arab property. The committee will give those who object to the plan 60 days to submit their reservations.

According to the non-government organisation Ir Amim, while the plan calls for 13,500 new residential units in East Jerusalem for Palestinians, updated demographic studies indicate that this amount barely represents half the minimum needs for the Arab population by 2030. Ir Amim also claims the plan allows for Palestinian construction in the north and south of the capital  but barely provides for an expansion of Arab construction projects in the centre of the city.

Israel-Palestine Latest: The East Jerusalem Demolition/Settlements Argument

On Sunday, about 150 protesters clashed with the settlers' security guards in Silwan. Six Border Police officers were wounded by stones, and dozens of women and children suffered from tear gas inhalation after the Israeli forces began firing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House on 6 July, after a fifth round of indirect talks between the US envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, Israel, and the Palestinians Authority.

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week and met Vice President Joe Biden, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On Sunday, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen met with Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Pentagon and Defense Ministry officials also held talks in Israel within the framework of the two countries' strategic dialogue.

Israel's ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren,was also in Israel to give a briefing at the Foreign Ministry. According to Israeli diplomats, Oren said relations between the two countries are not in a crisis because a crisis is something that passes; however, using a geological analogy, Oren said, "Relations are in the state of a tectonic rift in which continents are drifting apart." (Oren has now denied he made the remark.)

Yediot Ahronot's Shimon Shiffer claims that Obama will demand that Netanyahu lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip entirely and give permission for Palestinians to leave the Strip freely through Israeli border crossings. If true, then the Israeli Prime Minister may use the East Jerusalem expansion as a bargaining card, trading it for some conditions on the lifting of the blockade.