The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

Editor's Note: A technical glitch means that Comments are now closed on this page. Further comments and discussion continue on the 10 July updates page.

2125 GMT: Who Could He Mean? And ahead of tomorrow, another glance at a statement by Ali Larijani on Thursday: "Whoever stands against the law is committing rebellion and everyone should obey the law, or the Parliament will stand against him. It makes no sense that ordinary people obey the law but some of the officials do not."

2040 GMT: Heat Alert. The Ahmadinejad Government has announced that Sunday and Monday will be public holidays --- Saturday is a religious holiday --- because of the "extreme heat".

We presume that they mean the high air temperatures in the country rather than any extreme political heat they may be feeling amidst Bazaar strikes, conservative intrigues, etc.

NEW Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?
The Latest from Iran (8 July): Criticisms

2025 GMT: Important but Overlooked News? For reasons we will explain tomorrow, we think that this speech by Seyed Ahmad Dastghaib, the reformist PM of Shiraz, in the Majlis might be significant.....

Dastghaib said, "Unfortunately today many of Imam [Khomeini]’s speeches are not being said to the people". Then, using those speeches, he dropped his political bombshell: "If the top person in the country does wrong, Islam will depose him. He is not suitable for ruling and he is a Dictator."

In case anyone was not sure to whom Dastghaib was referring, he clarified that anyone can criticise the Supreme Leader.

Dastghaib also asserted, from Khomeini's words that broadcasters should be independent of the government and must broadcast everyone's opinion. Military forces must not interfere in the political and economic fields. And it is against Islamic law to attack or insult any cleric.

1935 GMT: It is reported that the Feminist School website has been filtered for the 15th time.

1925 GMT: Poster of the Day? It is claimed that this is a poster at the Tehran Bazaar: "Join the Strikes".



1430 GMT: Remembering. A group from the Mothers of Mourning, remembering their detained and killed children, have visited the memorial site for Cyrus the Great to denounce the oppression and injustices being committed against Iran's youth. The group then visited the home of imprisoned student activist Majid Tavakoli to share their empathy with his mother.

1315 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami taking charge today, and I have to say it's a pretty impressive performance from the fiery fellow.

Sure, he starts with the standard denunciation of Israel in the Middle East and of US and European sanctions against Iran but then he gets distinctive with his criticism, bringing in the July 1988 incident when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner, killing 290 people.

And then he's nimbly onto the cultural front, warning Iranians that they should not be misled by "Los Angeles singers". Tolerance, he says, must not only "cultural"; it must also be "political".

So how does all this fit together? Khatami name-checks 18 Tir (9 July) 1999 and the demonstrations against the Iranian regime . What was it? A great occasion to learn of the US threat and to neutralise it (and its Los Angeles singers).

1310 GMT: Culture Corner. According to Green Voice of Iran, famous singer Mohammad Nouri, artist of songs such as "Maryam", has rejected an offer of assistance from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

1250 GMT: Responding to the Bazaar Strike. Javan News, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, has offered a special reaction to this week's developments in the Tehran Bazaar, "Angelina Jolie and Half-Naked Women Instead of Traditional Rug Designs":

There were wall carpets bearing half-bare women and girls, and the faces of [Indian superstar] Aishwarya Rai, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and some Iranian actresses were more prominently displayed than [traditional rug designs]...., master rug weavers, who in the old days would not sit before their looms before performing ablution, now weave pictures of skulls and swastikas of Satanist groups into Iranian carpets. And even more regretfully, the bulk of rug traders' orders to weavers consists of vulgar pictures of women in various poses.


1230 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Week? Month?). Back from an academic break and then some checking with sources. Here's the story as we have it so far....

In recent days, there has been a meeting involving Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, 2009 Presidential candidate and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei, and key member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli. MP Ali Motahari may also have been present.

The meeting discussed the current political and economic situation and the tensions with the Ahmadinejad Government. We have reason to believe that there may be serious consideration of how and when to limit President Ahmadinejad's authority and possibly remove him from office. Specifically, those in the meeting were hoping to open up discussions with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani on the next steps.

(EA readers will recall that a similar initiative was reportedly discussed in January between Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. That effort seemed to have been put on hold by the apparent success of the Government in restricting opposition on 22 Bahman/11 February.)

We hope to have more information and a full analysis on this development tomorrow.
0935 GMT: Grounding the Aircraft? A bit more on this week's tale that Iranian flights were being denied fuel by suppliers in Britain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany....

A Hamburg Airport spokeswoman said two Iranian aircraft took off without refuelling, one on Saturday and one on Wednesday: "We can confirm that these aircraft flew from Hamburg but did not take on fuel here. We cannot say where they flew to or where they refuelled."

0930 GMT: Propaganda Ploy. Green Voice of Iran claims a new creative tactic from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: fabricating "statements" by Mir Hosseni Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti by splicing together clips from their older speeches.

0920 GMT: Remembering. Thousands of people reported visited Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday afternoon in memory of last year's victims. Services for Mohsen Rouholamini, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison, will be next Thursday.

Green Voice of Iran reviews the story of the post-election abuses in Kahrizak.

Peyke Iran posts photographs of families of detainees gathering on Wednesday outside Evin Prison.

0910 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So let's check President Ahmadinejad's response to all these internal developments and tensions....

Speaking in Nigeria at the meeting of the Group of Eight Developing Countries, Ahmadinejad declared, "The UN should be in a free place, away from the US domination."

0905 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. Two stories in Rooz Online English which parallel our coverage....

Bahram Rafiee reviews this week's challenge by MP Ahmad Tavakoli to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who "weakens the judiciary and law", and Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah, like EA's Mr Verde today, picks up the claims by Abbas Palizdar, the former MP who was jailed for verbal attacks on senior clergy and who now says he was acting on behalf of Ahmadinejad's camp.

0815 GMT: We have published the English translation of a statement by detained student leader Majid Tavakoli on 18 Tir, the anniversary of the 1999 demonstrations, and protest today.

0730 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that the Majlis will stand firmly against "lawbreakers" --- a reference to Ahmadinejad's maneouvres v. Parliament over his 5th Budget Plan? --- and defend people's rights

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbari has said that a plan to question Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, specifically over reparations from Iraq, is being prepared.

0720 GMT: The Bazaar Dispute. An EA correspondent reports that a meeting between Iranian officials and Bazaari representatives may not have gone too well. It is said to have ended in a clash with one official, Ali Asgari, leaving angrily. Bazaaris shouted at journalists to keep the other officials from departing and to make them give suitable answers.

There were also new reports that men in plainclothes were trying to get shopkeepers to open on Wednesday.

A bit of clarification. Yesterday was a religious holiday in Iran, so the Bazaar would normally have been closed, rather than "on strike"; Saturday is also a religious holiday. 0715 GMT: A Bit of Mischief over Ahmadinejad's Journeys. Khabar Online reports on President Ahmadinejad's visit to Mali and features this photo:



An EA correspondent says that, in Persian, "to put a hat on someone's head" --- in this case, a turban --- can mean cheating him.

0710 GMT: Mousavi's Statements Keep On Coming. Hard on the heels of his analysis this week of UN sanctions and the Ahmadinejad Government, Mir Hossein Mousavi has put out a statement declaring that the Green Movement welcomes diversity.

0540 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the significance of this week's strikes in the Tehran Bazaar and of a new political development that may be trouble for President Ahmadinejad.

0535 GMT: Writing at insideIRAN, Sohrab Razzaghi, a former official in the Ministry of Interior, has posted a series of recommendations to strengthen Iran's civil society:

• Creation of social networks to support the political and civil liberties movement in Iran and starting talks with Iran’s civil rights and political activists to enhance human rights and democracy

• Building of civil societies, with assistance from the international community to help civil society activists in capacity-building and related efforts.

• Promotion of human rights in Iran in various levels and for various segments of society.

• Education of a new generation of political activists and human rights defenders

• Enhancement of the free flow of information among Iranian citizens.

0530 GMT: Parliament v. President. Footage has been posted of Press TV interviews, in Persian, with members of Parliament over the attacks by leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli on the Ahmadinejad Government.

0515 GMT: Execution Watch. Amidst international pressure, Iranian authorities have announced that Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, will not be stoned. However, there is no indication that the threat of execution has been lifted.

0445 GMT: Today in Iran is 18 Tir. On the eve of this date in 1999, students began what would become the most widespread public protests since the 1979 Revolution. After a raid by security forces on a dormitory, the demonstrations escalated. Several people were killed in injured, hundreds were injured, and more than 1000 were estimated to have been detained.

So far, we have little news of public commemoration of the event. It may be notable that it is already in the mid-90s (35 degrees Celsius) in Tehran --- local time 9:15 a.m. --- and the temperature is projected to reach 107-108 (42 Celsius). So if there is a gathering of note, it may not take place until late afternoon.

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

EA correspondents point us to a new report by human rights activists, in Persian, on conditions in a number of detention centres.

Comments

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[...] The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir? | Enduring America [...]

[Catherine]

Mousavi rejects need for appointing a leader for Iran's reform movement
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/mousavi-rejects-need-for.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/mousavi-r...

[Catherine]

Iranian students denied passing grade over bad veiling charges
A number of professors at Khajeh Nasireddin Toosi University in Tehran have refused to give a passing grade to men and women who have attended classes in what they describe as “bad coverings and outfits.”
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iranian-students-denied-p.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iranian-s...

[Catherine]

Q&A: Delbar Tavakoli on Iranian Civil Society and the West
A series of discussions were held during the week of July 1 in Brussels, as the European Parliament focused on human rights abuses and civil society in Iran. InsideIRAN conducted the following interview in Brussels with Delbar Tavakoli, a journalist who worked for thirteen years in Iran and recently fled to Paris.
http://www.insideiran.org/featured/qa-delbar-tavakoli-on-iranian-civil-society-and-the-west/" rel="nofollow">http://www.insideiran.org/featured/qa-delbar-ta...

[Catherine]

English translation of the message from student leader Majid Tavakoli for 18 Tir (9 July), the 11th anniversary of university demonstrations.
(Translation NEGAR IRANI): 'My Bitter Memories'
http://persian2english.com/?p=12549" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12549

[Catherine]

Iran Cuts Oil Prices as Sanctions Bite
As international sanctions mount, Iran is finding it increasing hard to find buyers for its oil, and is being forced to offer discounts in order to shift as much as it can to a falling number of customers.
http://www.mianeh.net/en/articles/?aid=347" rel="nofollow">http://www.mianeh.net/en/articles/?aid=347

[Catherine]

How Hezbollah Founder Fell Foul of Iranian Regime

As Iran’s top man sponsoring Islamic groups abroad like Hezbollah and Hamas, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour should be someone close to the current regime’s heart. But Mohtashamipour’s political sympathies have for years lain with the opposition. In the June 2009 presidential ballot, he ran an election monitoring body to try to ensure opposition candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi was not cheated of votes.

In April 2010 he was dismissed from his post as secretary-general of Iran’s Committee for the Support of the Intifada, Although the motive may have been political, Mohtashamipour's dismissal also reflected the growing divergence between those like him who support Hezbollah and Hamas out of ideological principle, and other establishment figures who see such groups merely as pawns in the bigger game of advancing Iran’s interests abroad.

More: http://www.mianeh.net/en/articles/?aid=344" rel="nofollow">http://www.mianeh.net/en/articles/?aid=344

[Catherine]

The Netherlands and France are calling for international guidelines on the export of internet censorship technology by private companies to world governments. Foreign ministers will be meeting later this year in the Netherlands to decide on measures to strengthen freedom of expression on the internet.
http://www.minbuza.nl/en/News/Newsflashes/2010/07/Ministers_to_meet_in_the_Netherlands_to_champion_internet_freedom" rel="nofollow">http://www.minbuza.nl/en/News/Newsflashes/2010/...

[WitteKr]

More economic pressure: "Lloyd's of London will not insure or reinsure petroleum shipments going into Iran, the insurance market said on Friday.
"The U.S. is an important market for Lloyd's and, in recognition of this, the market will not insure or reinsure refined petroleum going into Iran," Lloyd's General Counsel Sean McGovern told Reuters in a statement. "Lloyd's will always comply with applicable sanctions," McGovern added."
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2010/07/09/111428.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/internatio...

[WitteKr]

Re 0905: Larijani joins the crowd... "The disputes between Iranian Parliament and government continued as today, Ali Larijani, Speaker of Parliament said those who stand against the law will be confronted. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who has in the past threatened not to carry out legislation which he disagreed with, was rebuked yesterday by conservative MP, Ahmadi Tavakoli, for inciting disregard for the law.
Ali Larijani went on to say that justice can only be achieved through strict adherence to the law. He added that bills that have been approved by the Guardian Council must be carried out by the government, if not the government would have to answer for its violations."
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-speaker-of-parliamen-1.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/07/iran-spea...

[WitteKr]

Former Iranian Judiciary Investigator Reveals Ahmadinejad’s Smear Campaign. Yesterday, in an interview with Hamshahri Maa magazine, Abbas Palizdar, who was sentenced to six years in prison on the charge of malversation for revealing “the secrets of the government” and was released on bail from prison last year, revealed that he was behind the project to fabricate evidence against Ahmadinejed’s opponents in the 2009 Iranian Presidential election. He also revealed that Ahmadinejad promised him a position as the head of a ministry post in return for his efforts.
http://persian2english.com/?p=12572" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12572

[Arshama]

@ 0720 GMT: The Bazaar Dispute

Radio Farda predicts a continuation of the strike until Saturday http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f35_Tehran_Bazar_Strike/2094947.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f35_Tehran_Ba...
Interesting remarks by Ahmad Alavi, who describes the Bazaar as an important informal news network and as an indicator of hidden crises. He also stresses the fact that the strike's symbolical value surpasses its economic importance.
The Bazaaris complain that the government has politicised the economic debate and have announced more guilds and cities might join their strike.

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Thank you for all these interesting news.
By the way, Paul the octopus had rightly predicted Germany to loose the match against Spain (unfortunately Espana was much better). Shouldn't we let him make a prognosis about the IR?
I only hope that Paul has survived ;-)

Arshama

[Arshama]

@ 1230 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Week? Month?)

Scott,

With all respect and appreciation, I heavily doubt that Larijani and his gang will really impeach AN, because it would be political suicide. Just imagine the situation: a vacant presidential chair...? Mousavi and Karroubi would kiss Larijani's hands and even his feet for such an excellent opportunity ;-)
No, Imho all these meetings are designated to build up an anti-coalition, also with regard to a possible demise of the SL. So far he has managed to keep the balance of power, but the Bassiji mob in front of the Majlis indicates his waning influence.
Larijani, Rezaie and Raffers will continue with business as usual, i.e. bargaining and rotten compromises. However they surely know that the IRGC are meanwhile extending their influence for the final showdown. I'm convinced that the latter are eagerly awaiting an excuse to take over: shortages of fuel, food or whatever else would be an excellent opportunity...

Arshama

[ScottLucas11]

Arshama,

I promise much more tomorrow but you've put your finger on the problem for the plan: whose head goes over the parapet to take down Ahmadinejad?

S.

[ScottLucas11]

Should add that I don't think the plan is necessarily for impeachment but to denounce and press Ahmadinejad while persuading SL that it's time for the President to "resign".

[WitteKr]

After BP now Shell? "Shell to end jet fuel supplies to Iran Air - source"
"Oil major Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) will not renew its contracts to supply Iran Air with jet fuel in response to pressure from the U.S. to cease business with the Islamic republic, an industry source said on Thursday.
Most of the major's contracts with the airline have already expired, the source added." Reuters, yesterday. No confirmation so far...
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6674TK20100708?type=companyNews" rel="nofollow">http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6674TK2010...

[WitteKr]

More on Larijani's criticism on AN: "Larijani criticised the government’s expansionist economic policy and Ahmadinejad personally for challenging two pieces of legislation passed by parliament, the ISNA news agency reported on Friday. “If we want to stand up to our enemies, we need to improve the economy,” the news agency quoted Larijani as saying in a speech in the Tehran satellite town of Karaj.
Larijani took particular issue with the president’s decision to ask Iran’s constitutional watchdog to throw out two measures adopted by parliament. “How can you ask an ordinary villager to respect the law, if politicians don’t?” he asked.
“We in parliament will not allow anybody... to disregard the law because that’s an act of rebellion and a shameful violation,” he said.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=/data/middleeast/2010/July/middleeast_July148.xml§ion=middleeast" rel="nofollow">http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.a...

[Bozorg]

I thought the bazar strike, regardless of motivation, general state of economic decline and credibility of the state would have quickened people to take advantage of the momentum. But no public demos, or even reports about people trying to gather, and no reports of rooftop chanting. Well, it's not quite 10 pm there yet. But still. Even a weak to medium showing in public might have given some of the bazaris the impetus to continue their strike next week.

Oh, and of course, no condemnation of the student massacres in 1999, 2009 by any of the reformists.

[Kurt]

Yes, congrats to España, my mourning period is over. :-)

So, Paul picks Spain, and Mani the parakeet has picket the Netherlands.

[Kurt]

re 1250 GMT

Mrs. Abhishek is nice, but do you suppose there's any Rani rugs?!

In seriousness, yes, I agree with Arshama's take as well - with all these speculations of impeachment and principlist maneuvers, my main problem has been to ask, how would this benefit them save with a shift or factionalization of Sepah to back them up?

[ScottLucas11]

Another teaser: Watch the Clerics.

S.

[Arshama]

Scott,

The SL has made his decision on AN last summer, willing to sacrifice the Iranian people on his behalf. Not a single sign of doubt or regret since, but quite the opposite: meanwhile he allows himself to interfere in any given issue, from energy policy to cultural matters. Do you really believe someone will be able to persuade this epitome of hatred and inhumanity to change his mind?
He would rather sacrifice the whole country to stay in power with his dwarf.

How many more people must be tortured, executed or perish until someone accepts that this system is not reformable, under no circumstances?

Arshama

[Bijan77]

Arshama -

Points well made but if the SL can move his support to another by throwing AN under the bus, would he not do so in turn showing himself to be the supreme guide for the people of Iran? Would he not sacrifice AN to save himself if a larger audience, especially clerics and principalists (AL, etc) have taken a firm stance against AN while vocalizing support for SL?

Agree this is not reforms, nor transformation..simply change.