The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities

2125 GMT: More Fun with the MKO. I guess one "Dumbest Strategy of Day" Award isn't enough. Following Euro MP Struan Stevenson's cheerful advocacy of an alliance with the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khaq "terrorist" group (MKO), Allan Gerson, a lawyer who has worked for the State and Justice Departments, drops by The Huffington Post to assure:

As a practical matter de-designation of the [Mujahedin-e-Khalq] as a terrorist entity will only enhance Washington's desired outcome of a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It would strengthen America's hand in bringing a faltering regime to the negotiating table by letting Tehran know in no uncertain terms that we have taken off the kid-gloves.

Oh, yeah, I'm sure that the Tehran regime, which has been trying to rally opinion by claiming a US-MKO plot to overthrow the Government, will be absolutely traumatised and have no close what to do if Washington follows Gerson's recommendation.

(Oh, so sorry, I took Gerson at face value as an objective if pretty dim commentator. He is in fact co-counsel representing the MKO in the case to take it off the US Government's terrorist list.)

2055 GMT: Former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani have written messages of condolence to the family of President Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

2030 GMT: Battling with the Clerics. A series of skirmishes between Government and clerics today. Ayatollah Sadeghi Tehrani, taking offence at remarks by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has declared that the retention of the former First Vice-President and current Presidential Chief of Staff in any official position is “haram” (religiously forbidden).

And Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, a persistent post-cleric of the Government but relatively quiet in recent weeks, has re-emerged to declare that the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is not a principle of Islam and denying it is not a sin.

NEW Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
Iran: How Far Do The Green Movements Go?
Iran & Social Media: Dispelling Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Parsons)
The Latest from Iran (12 January): The Killing of the Professor

Look also for some repercussions from the Government's arrest of Mohammad Taghi Khalaji (see 1745 GMT). He is the father of prominent Mehdi Khalaji, who is based at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Expect WINEP and their allies in the Washington network of "think tanks" to get vocal --- indeed, WINEP has put out a special alert and Danielle Pletka, a Bush-era proponent of US power now at the American Enterprise Institute, has already jumped in, "Iran’s Nazi-Fascism and How You Can Help Fight It". (John Hannah, former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, has now joined the chorus.)

2015 GMT: The Scholars and Mousavi. 54 Iranian university professors, scholars, and expatriate intellectuals have written an open letter to express firm support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s "5-proposal" statement, issued on 1 January, as “a step toward the consistency of the Green Movement” with "a minimum political platform with specific demands upon the government”. The signatories specifically praised “the four sections related to free elections and the preconditions for having free elections, including the release of all political prisoners, free and independent press and media, and the emphasis on the rights of forming political parties and holding gatherings”.

Interestingly, the 54 openly referred to the unstated test of the proposals, the removal of the President: “Mousavi while giving the priority to the democratic movement of the people of Iran proved that for advancing the demands of this movement is ready to negotiate with the ruling powers. His indirect position regarding the “legal” removal of Ahmadinejad through the parliament is a signature of these democratic tendencies.”

1745 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, a cleric close to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been arrested.

1735 GMT: Trotting Out the Lines on Ali-Mohammadi. Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story", covering the Ali-Mohammadi killing, has just started. Another appearance for Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi (see separate video), who declares --- without presenting evidence --- that "the evidence points to the Israelis" and diverts into a declaration of American support for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

Nothing new there, but an interesting twist with the other guest, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi of the University of London. Ranjdbar-Daemi, who has very good sources on Ali-Mohammadi, is able to set out that the Tehran physicist has no connection with Iran's nuclear programme. He also brings out Ali-Mohammadi's support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

This brings out the quote of the day from Marandi: "The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization did not say that he had absolutely nothing to do with them; they said that he did not work for them." Which somehow proves that Ali-Mohammadi was indeed involved in the nuclear programme.

Oh, sorry, this is the Quote of the Day: "The fact that someone voted for Mr Mousavi does not mean he is a Mousavi supporter. Most of my colleagues who voted for Mr Mousavi no longer support him today. That issue is long gone."

1730 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi's Last Lecture. An absolutely reliable EA source has confirmed that the audio file of Professor Ali-Mohammadi's statement at Tehran University last week (see 1450 GMT) is genuine.

1555 GMT: Dumbest Strategy of Day "Let's Promote MKO". A great day at The Washington Times: having scooped the Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case award with "War with Iran Nears" (see 1045 GMT), they give space to a member of the European Parliament, Struan Stevenson, to call for support of the People's Mujahideen of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq armed resistance (see 1005 GMT).

Stevenson seems oblivious to the notion that almost none of the groups in the Iranian opposition want to work with the PMOI/MEK or that taking the organisation off the US Government's terrorist list would feed the Iranian regime propaganda line that Washington is backing a group which has sought regime change --- often with violence --- for more than a generation. Indeed, he seems oblivious to any consideration of realpolitik as he concludes, "This is intervening in Iran's internal affairs in favor of the mullahs - and now realpolitik dictates this has to be changed."

1545 GMT: Don't Look Here, Look Over There! Another of President Ahmadinejad's "Let's Talk About the World but Not About Iran" televised speeches....

West trying to dominate the Middle East and Central Asia:""All their planning is aimed at this goal. Human rights, fighting nuclear weapons and terrorism are all a big lie....With the pretext of September 11 they started the fire of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and today in Yemen."

Israel will be vanquished: "The supporters of Zionists should know that the Zionist regime is on the way down to collapse and no one can save it. The Iranian nation will cut from the arm any hand that has been extended to it with the aim (of committing) a crime."

And Saudi Arabia should get on the right side (against Israel) and not on the wrong side (in Yemen): "We were expecting that Saudi Arabian officials act like a mentor and make peace between brothers, not that they themselves enter the war and use bombs ... and machineguns against Muslims. If only a small part of the weapons of Saudi Arabia were used in favor of Gaza and against the Zionist regime, today there would be no sign of the Zionist regime in the region."

1450 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi Recording? An Iranian activist has posted claimed audio of a statement by Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi at Tehran University last week.

1440 GMT: So We're NOT Deporting Iranians? Word in from the National Iranian American Council that the author of a proposed US law (which is idiotic on the whole, let alone in parts) has at least dropped a measure that could have sent Iranians in the US packing:

Congressman Gresham Barrett's (R-SC) office has confirmed to NIAC that he will drop language aimed at deporting non-immigrant Iranians from the U.S. when he reintroduces the Stop Terrorists Entry Program (STEP) Act today....

When the STEP Act was first introduced in 2003, it contained provisions that would have mandated the deportation of all Iranians on student visas, temporary work visas, exchange visas, and tourist visas from the United States within 60 days....

Though the elimination of the deportation provisions constitutes a significant victory for the Iranian-American community, the bill remains problematic. It would make it illegal for Iranians to travel to the United States, though some exceptions may be made for medical emergencies and political or religious asylum after "extensive federal screening."

1335 GMT: Students on Ali-Mohammadi. Students of the Physics Department of Tehran University have issued a statement condemning the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi and expressing their condolences to his family. The students claim that Ali-Mohammadi was outspoken in recent months in support of the Green Movement and university protests. They add that Ali-Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme.

1305 GMT: A Sit-In Success? An Iranian website is claiming that students at Razi University in Kermanshah, after sit-in protests and boycotts of final examinations, have succeeded in getting release of their classmates from detention.

1215 GMT: Motahari presses ahead. The campaign of Ali Motahari, high-profile member of Parliament and brother-in-law of Ali Larijani, against the Ahmadinejad is now being waged on a daily basis. Today Motahari wrote an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. Opposing the appointment of Saeed Mortazavi as a Presidential aide, Motahari has asked Larijani to investigate the role of Mortazavi, formerly Tehran's Prosecutor General, in post-election detainee abuses.

Ali Shakrokhi, the head of the Juridical Commission of Parliament, has added a twist by suggesting that Ahmadinejad could sue Motahari over allegations that the President is responsible for post-election crisis.

1155 GMT: Stay the Course. The regime is not giving up on its quest to portray Professor Ali-Mohammadi's murder as a foreign plot. To the contrary, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani declared today:

We had received information a few days before the incident that intelligence services of the Zionist regime intend to carry out terrorist acts in Tehran in cooperation with the CIA....After the failure of all its hostile policies, it currently resorts to the physical elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Larijani even got personal with a verbal assault on President Obama:

Such filthy actions are easy to carry out but such adventurism will do you no good....You have practically promoted acts of terrorism....This black spot will be recorded in the dossier of US crimes against the Iranian nation.

1045 GMT: Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case. The editorial staff of The Washington Times know what it all means: "War with Iran Nears":

The coming conflict will not be an overnight air strike followed by bellicose language, like the Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear site in September 2007. Disrupting Iran's nuclear program will require Israel to undertake a sustained campaign. Iran will launch reprisal attacks through its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, encourage Syria to respond, foment chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan and potentially order terror attacks on Western targets.

1005 GMT: Strange But True. On the same day that Iranian state media was claiming Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO), backed by the US Government, may have killed Professor Ali-Mohammadi, the political wing of the organisation --- the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran (PMOI) --- was appearing in a Washington court to get itself removed from the US Government's list of terrorist organisations.

The PMOI lawyer claimed, "The organization has foresworn violence. We walk the walk. There have been no terrorist acts by PMOI for eight years." He had no success, however. US Government lawyers declared that Washington would not negotiate with "an organization that for at least 30 years has been involved in terrorism, violence, assassination, et cetera" and that "classified material" made clear that the group should still be listed.

1000 GMT: In a separate entry, EA's Mr Smith uses excellent sources and knowledges to consider the political significance of the murder of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

0910 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning. Persian2English offers a vital addition to our report last night of the freeing of those Mothers of Mourning who were detained during their Saturday protest: they were released on bail, so criminal charges are still pending.

0900 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Case. The "Iran Royal Society", who --- according to Iranian state media --- had claimed responsibility for the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, have denied any involvement.

The Los Angeles Times has a full report on the murder and on Mohammadi, and The Washington Post adds useful information.

And The Guardian of London offers an interesting editorial comment:

As the regime in Tehran loses its last vestige of legitimacy with its own people, it is important that international sanctions do not restore to the Iranian leadership its role as defender of the faith. The US must not play into the hands of an Iranian president keen to cast domestic opponents as foreign agents. The temptation in Washington is to think that it can influence events in Iran. It has in the past, but rarely, if ever, for the better.

0845 GMT: Overnight news continues to be dominated by the murder of Tehran University physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have a special feature considering the politics and propaganda around the case, and we also have a video of Flynt Leverett using the episode to set out his line on the US pursuit of regime change and support of "terrorism".

Beyond the furour, there is a useful, first-hand reminder of the conflict in a letter from Tehran claiming, "The Regime is Over".

Comments

[Barry]

MS

here is an example of why many/most here do not believe ANYTHING that comes from the Regime or it's supporters.

http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/01/mohammad-reza-heidari-iran-diplomat.html

When my children were young, I always told them not to lie - if only because sooner or later they will be found out.

Barry

[teez negah]

The whole affair is a typical exercise in ineptitude by the government. The clunking fist came down. Yes,certain questions need to be raised about black ops against the regime but A.N's govt only creates further problems and suspicion by offering and cooking up scenarios that leaves even more questions.It is not improbable that a faction of simplistic and wrong headed IRGC leaders cooked up -as the greens claim-a mafia sicily style/beirut roadside bomb assaination. But the fact remains that the current administration is inept -for the sake of Iran's future a new take care governemnt needs to be put in place. A new adminstration needs to be put in place so as to listen and take action in dealing with greivences aired by a sizeable (maybe not the majority) part of the country under the green umbrella.

[Scott Lucas]

m.s.,

On the purported statement from Professor Ali-Mohammadi's family: having checked with sources, I believe that the statement, as reported in Fars News, was not genuine. I will keep eyes open for developments and would be grateful for any information that you think notable.

S.

[m. s.]

ange paris,

You can go on with your insults I don't mind. But let me be clear, I don't support the government for the wrongdoings they have done. In the earlier days of the protests they could have acted in a way that prevented the aftermath disasters. The State television also added to the problem by ignoring the protests and fabricating stories about the deaths of people. they tried to conceal whatever that was happening during the protests. But this strategy did not work because Iranians are smart people and cannot be fooled easily. In the early days of the protests people of Tehran were really angry and (I PERSONALLY think) their anger and protests should have been reacted to in a different way. the government should have reacted with more patience and tolerance (although I personally think that the idea of vote rigging lacked logical reasons and even today they could not provide any reasonable evidence for it). However my point is that there were a group of rioter who who had merged with the protesters. in the first day after the election in some universities in Tehran and other cities major damages were done that was worth a lot of money to repair and as you may know that happened before the killings began. Even in the most democratic countries the police would react to such incidents firmly and that is the main responsibility of the police. I support the police's firm action against the rioters but I condemn the killings and beatings of protesters and ordinary people, whoever be responsible for it. As I said I don't believe that the election was fake or that Mr Mousavi had gained the majority of votes. I believe that A'd was the true winner and I believe he had massive support in cities other than Tehran. But the disturbing fact is that this majority of people were not given voice in the media. nobody talks about them and whenever one of them decides to raise their voice s/he is accused of all the crimes and negative characteristics in the world. I don't know if you read this site at the early days of protests but if you had you would have seen my comments then and would not judge me like this, of course I don't say anything for the consent of anybody. I'm talking about my ideas and understandings no matter who likes or dislikes them. Hypocrite is the person who blames the Iranian government of suppressing the opposition voice but cannot tolerate a voice that is different from himself.I WISH A DAY WHEN EVEY ONE CAN OVERCOME ANGER AND HATRED. (My English is not as good you so it may sound vague in some parts, sorry for that)

[m. s.]

Scott,

OK, thanks. May be it is not a proper request but is it possible for you to email me the reasons you think it was not genuine?

[ange paris]

m.s
Don't worry, your english is better than mine ! If AN had the majority of the votes, why the opposition's voice is cut, why all the media are under state control, why all the daily news of the opposition are forbiden, why the demonstrations are forbiden , why demonstrators are killed and shot as the rabbits during the demonstrations , why people are beaten in the streets especially the women !! (noble deeds), why all the monsters who have raped innocent people didn't tried in justice !! and all these trials in TV , really nonsense, confessing under treats, like the statement of the defunt professor's family, under treats or "menace" in french, all confessions are void !! do you have a dream, to live in a country where people are happy, earning money to live peacefully with their family, being able to find jobs after their long studies, where the money of the country is spent for the sake of people and not for hezbollah and hamas, my friend fight for your dream and be fair ! or have the life that you have and try to be happy !
An other thing, about the rigged elections, you could understand why in Azerbaijan of Mr Moussavi, why AN was the winner ?? there is no logic, if you know turkish people !! but the poor cheaters were not even sharp and clever not to do this mistake !! and now imagine for the other parts of Iran !
I can understand that you are for AN and I respect your ideas as I respect my friends (with whom I am very close ) having different thoughts and different religions but don't act as if you were very open while critisising everybody and giving moral lessons; here on EA the majority of iranians living abroad, think that what has done the iranian governement is unforgivable because we are not used to witnessing this kind of brutality despite the huge amounts of demonstrations in the streets ! at the beginning of the uprising in Iran, the question was " where is my vote" and now, because of the big fault of the regime , everybody says "go away velayte faghih" ! big change ! is'nt it ?? future will show who is right, and normally is "justice"; have a nice day and fight for a better life for you and your CHILDREN !

[m. s.]

ange paris,

"do you have a dream, to live in a country where people are happy, earning money to live peacefully with their family, being able to find jobs after their long studies"
yes I have the same dream and I'm against all these censorship and brutalities you mentioned friend. But I believe the election was not rigged and mousavi added to this turmoil by calling it rigged.
About the case of Azerbaijan and turks, before the election there were several polls conducted on the issue of iranian election. one of these polls was a poll conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow. here is a part of the report:

"Inside Iran, considerable attention has been given to Mr. Moussavi's Azeri background, emphasizing the appeal his Azeri identity may have for Azeri voters. The results of our survey indicate that only 16 percent of Azeri Iranians indicate they will vote for Mr. Moussavi. By contrast, 31 percent of the Azeris claim they will vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad."

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%200609.pdf

and this is part of a commentary on the same poll in Washington Post, June 15, that may answer a probably upcoming question:

"Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

What do you think?

[ange paris]

m.s
I couldn't rely on the surveys coming from Iran or about Iran !! all based on the fear ! sorry I don't believe; I am azari, and from my relatives I know the truth and as you know we are very " gheyrati" !!
But Ok we are not going to last this conversation because our believes are different ; I am a fan of justice and a fan of iranian people and with what i have seen during these 7 months, all these atrocities, I know that "justice" will win ! Allah is great !! VVVVVVVVVV
Good night and when you want you are welcome !
signed : a fanatically pro iranian people