The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities

2125 GMT: More Fun with the MKO. I guess one "Dumbest Strategy of Day" Award isn't enough. Following Euro MP Struan Stevenson's cheerful advocacy of an alliance with the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khaq "terrorist" group (MKO), Allan Gerson, a lawyer who has worked for the State and Justice Departments, drops by The Huffington Post to assure:

As a practical matter de-designation of the [Mujahedin-e-Khalq] as a terrorist entity will only enhance Washington's desired outcome of a peaceful resolution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. It would strengthen America's hand in bringing a faltering regime to the negotiating table by letting Tehran know in no uncertain terms that we have taken off the kid-gloves.

Oh, yeah, I'm sure that the Tehran regime, which has been trying to rally opinion by claiming a US-MKO plot to overthrow the Government, will be absolutely traumatised and have no close what to do if Washington follows Gerson's recommendation.

(Oh, so sorry, I took Gerson at face value as an objective if pretty dim commentator. He is in fact co-counsel representing the MKO in the case to take it off the US Government's terrorist list.)

2055 GMT: Former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani have written messages of condolence to the family of President Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

2030 GMT: Battling with the Clerics. A series of skirmishes between Government and clerics today. Ayatollah Sadeghi Tehrani, taking offence at remarks by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has declared that the retention of the former First Vice-President and current Presidential Chief of Staff in any official position is “haram” (religiously forbidden).

And Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, a persistent post-cleric of the Government but relatively quiet in recent weeks, has re-emerged to declare that the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is not a principle of Islam and denying it is not a sin.

NEW Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
Iran: How Far Do The Green Movements Go?
Iran & Social Media: Dispelling Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Parsons)
The Latest from Iran (12 January): The Killing of the Professor

Look also for some repercussions from the Government's arrest of Mohammad Taghi Khalaji (see 1745 GMT). He is the father of prominent Mehdi Khalaji, who is based at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Expect WINEP and their allies in the Washington network of "think tanks" to get vocal --- indeed, WINEP has put out a special alert and Danielle Pletka, a Bush-era proponent of US power now at the American Enterprise Institute, has already jumped in, "Iran’s Nazi-Fascism and How You Can Help Fight It". (John Hannah, former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, has now joined the chorus.)

2015 GMT: The Scholars and Mousavi. 54 Iranian university professors, scholars, and expatriate intellectuals have written an open letter to express firm support for Mir Hossein Mousavi’s "5-proposal" statement, issued on 1 January, as “a step toward the consistency of the Green Movement” with "a minimum political platform with specific demands upon the government”. The signatories specifically praised “the four sections related to free elections and the preconditions for having free elections, including the release of all political prisoners, free and independent press and media, and the emphasis on the rights of forming political parties and holding gatherings”.

Interestingly, the 54 openly referred to the unstated test of the proposals, the removal of the President: “Mousavi while giving the priority to the democratic movement of the people of Iran proved that for advancing the demands of this movement is ready to negotiate with the ruling powers. His indirect position regarding the “legal” removal of Ahmadinejad through the parliament is a signature of these democratic tendencies.”

1745 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, a cleric close to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been arrested.

1735 GMT: Trotting Out the Lines on Ali-Mohammadi. Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story", covering the Ali-Mohammadi killing, has just started. Another appearance for Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi (see separate video), who declares --- without presenting evidence --- that "the evidence points to the Israelis" and diverts into a declaration of American support for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

Nothing new there, but an interesting twist with the other guest, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi of the University of London. Ranjdbar-Daemi, who has very good sources on Ali-Mohammadi, is able to set out that the Tehran physicist has no connection with Iran's nuclear programme. He also brings out Ali-Mohammadi's support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

This brings out the quote of the day from Marandi: "The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization did not say that he had absolutely nothing to do with them; they said that he did not work for them." Which somehow proves that Ali-Mohammadi was indeed involved in the nuclear programme.

Oh, sorry, this is the Quote of the Day: "The fact that someone voted for Mr Mousavi does not mean he is a Mousavi supporter. Most of my colleagues who voted for Mr Mousavi no longer support him today. That issue is long gone."

1730 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi's Last Lecture. An absolutely reliable EA source has confirmed that the audio file of Professor Ali-Mohammadi's statement at Tehran University last week (see 1450 GMT) is genuine.

1555 GMT: Dumbest Strategy of Day "Let's Promote MKO". A great day at The Washington Times: having scooped the Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case award with "War with Iran Nears" (see 1045 GMT), they give space to a member of the European Parliament, Struan Stevenson, to call for support of the People's Mujahideen of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq armed resistance (see 1005 GMT).

Stevenson seems oblivious to the notion that almost none of the groups in the Iranian opposition want to work with the PMOI/MEK or that taking the organisation off the US Government's terrorist list would feed the Iranian regime propaganda line that Washington is backing a group which has sought regime change --- often with violence --- for more than a generation. Indeed, he seems oblivious to any consideration of realpolitik as he concludes, "This is intervening in Iran's internal affairs in favor of the mullahs - and now realpolitik dictates this has to be changed."

1545 GMT: Don't Look Here, Look Over There! Another of President Ahmadinejad's "Let's Talk About the World but Not About Iran" televised speeches....

West trying to dominate the Middle East and Central Asia:""All their planning is aimed at this goal. Human rights, fighting nuclear weapons and terrorism are all a big lie....With the pretext of September 11 they started the fire of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and today in Yemen."

Israel will be vanquished: "The supporters of Zionists should know that the Zionist regime is on the way down to collapse and no one can save it. The Iranian nation will cut from the arm any hand that has been extended to it with the aim (of committing) a crime."

And Saudi Arabia should get on the right side (against Israel) and not on the wrong side (in Yemen): "We were expecting that Saudi Arabian officials act like a mentor and make peace between brothers, not that they themselves enter the war and use bombs ... and machineguns against Muslims. If only a small part of the weapons of Saudi Arabia were used in favor of Gaza and against the Zionist regime, today there would be no sign of the Zionist regime in the region."

1450 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi Recording? An Iranian activist has posted claimed audio of a statement by Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi at Tehran University last week.

1440 GMT: So We're NOT Deporting Iranians? Word in from the National Iranian American Council that the author of a proposed US law (which is idiotic on the whole, let alone in parts) has at least dropped a measure that could have sent Iranians in the US packing:

Congressman Gresham Barrett's (R-SC) office has confirmed to NIAC that he will drop language aimed at deporting non-immigrant Iranians from the U.S. when he reintroduces the Stop Terrorists Entry Program (STEP) Act today....

When the STEP Act was first introduced in 2003, it contained provisions that would have mandated the deportation of all Iranians on student visas, temporary work visas, exchange visas, and tourist visas from the United States within 60 days....

Though the elimination of the deportation provisions constitutes a significant victory for the Iranian-American community, the bill remains problematic. It would make it illegal for Iranians to travel to the United States, though some exceptions may be made for medical emergencies and political or religious asylum after "extensive federal screening."

1335 GMT: Students on Ali-Mohammadi. Students of the Physics Department of Tehran University have issued a statement condemning the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi and expressing their condolences to his family. The students claim that Ali-Mohammadi was outspoken in recent months in support of the Green Movement and university protests. They add that Ali-Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme.

1305 GMT: A Sit-In Success? An Iranian website is claiming that students at Razi University in Kermanshah, after sit-in protests and boycotts of final examinations, have succeeded in getting release of their classmates from detention.

1215 GMT: Motahari presses ahead. The campaign of Ali Motahari, high-profile member of Parliament and brother-in-law of Ali Larijani, against the Ahmadinejad is now being waged on a daily basis. Today Motahari wrote an open letter to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. Opposing the appointment of Saeed Mortazavi as a Presidential aide, Motahari has asked Larijani to investigate the role of Mortazavi, formerly Tehran's Prosecutor General, in post-election detainee abuses.

Ali Shakrokhi, the head of the Juridical Commission of Parliament, has added a twist by suggesting that Ahmadinejad could sue Motahari over allegations that the President is responsible for post-election crisis.

1155 GMT: Stay the Course. The regime is not giving up on its quest to portray Professor Ali-Mohammadi's murder as a foreign plot. To the contrary, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani declared today:

We had received information a few days before the incident that intelligence services of the Zionist regime intend to carry out terrorist acts in Tehran in cooperation with the CIA....After the failure of all its hostile policies, it currently resorts to the physical elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

Larijani even got personal with a verbal assault on President Obama:

Such filthy actions are easy to carry out but such adventurism will do you no good....You have practically promoted acts of terrorism....This black spot will be recorded in the dossier of US crimes against the Iranian nation.

1045 GMT: Dumbest Exploitation of the Ali-Mohammadi Case. The editorial staff of The Washington Times know what it all means: "War with Iran Nears":

The coming conflict will not be an overnight air strike followed by bellicose language, like the Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear site in September 2007. Disrupting Iran's nuclear program will require Israel to undertake a sustained campaign. Iran will launch reprisal attacks through its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, encourage Syria to respond, foment chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan and potentially order terror attacks on Western targets.

1005 GMT: Strange But True. On the same day that Iranian state media was claiming Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO), backed by the US Government, may have killed Professor Ali-Mohammadi, the political wing of the organisation --- the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran (PMOI) --- was appearing in a Washington court to get itself removed from the US Government's list of terrorist organisations.

The PMOI lawyer claimed, "The organization has foresworn violence. We walk the walk. There have been no terrorist acts by PMOI for eight years." He had no success, however. US Government lawyers declared that Washington would not negotiate with "an organization that for at least 30 years has been involved in terrorism, violence, assassination, et cetera" and that "classified material" made clear that the group should still be listed.

1000 GMT: In a separate entry, EA's Mr Smith uses excellent sources and knowledges to consider the political significance of the murder of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

0910 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning. Persian2English offers a vital addition to our report last night of the freeing of those Mothers of Mourning who were detained during their Saturday protest: they were released on bail, so criminal charges are still pending.

0900 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Case. The "Iran Royal Society", who --- according to Iranian state media --- had claimed responsibility for the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, have denied any involvement.

The Los Angeles Times has a full report on the murder and on Mohammadi, and The Washington Post adds useful information.

And The Guardian of London offers an interesting editorial comment:

As the regime in Tehran loses its last vestige of legitimacy with its own people, it is important that international sanctions do not restore to the Iranian leadership its role as defender of the faith. The US must not play into the hands of an Iranian president keen to cast domestic opponents as foreign agents. The temptation in Washington is to think that it can influence events in Iran. It has in the past, but rarely, if ever, for the better.

0845 GMT: Overnight news continues to be dominated by the murder of Tehran University physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have a special feature considering the politics and propaganda around the case, and we also have a video of Flynt Leverett using the episode to set out his line on the US pursuit of regime change and support of "terrorism".

Beyond the furour, there is a useful, first-hand reminder of the conflict in a letter from Tehran claiming, "The Regime is Over".

Comments

[Barry]

Arshama

Thanks - just as I expected.

She looks like such a nice lady too - but she allows herself to be used.

Barry

[Megan]

Scott and All,

Is there any way we can find out if Dr. Ali Mohammadi was in contact with University of Stockholm in Sweden for a year of sabbatical to conduct research?

Scott, you as a faculty member may have more access.

[Samuel]

Barry,

Off topic but what the heck is happening in Australia with Indian students???

India warns Australia over student attacks

Australian authorities deny attacks on Indian students are racially motivated

(CNN) -- India's foreign minister has cautioned his Australian counterpart that the relations between the two countries could be strained unless Australia tackles the continuing attacks on Indian students studying there.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/01/12/india.australia.students/index.html?iref=allsearch

[Barry]

Samuel

Your guess is as good as mine - major Australian cities are now almost unrecognizable, compared to say 40 years ago. (a bit like London) . So much immigration - so many races all mixed together - don't know whether these small number of incidents are racially motivated though. In any large modern city anywhere in the world, there is always crime.

Outside the cities - lies my beloved Australia. (Same as my motherland England - outside of the cities)

Don't know why so many Muslims want to migrate to countries like England and Australia - we Anglo-Saxons are such racists, and our countries are terrible. There should be Sharia introduced into these western countries - that would be more just.

Barry

[Barry]

But back to "On topic"

"Ayatollah Sadeghi Tehrani, taking offence at remarks by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, "

I have not been able to track down the subject matter of these "remarks" -- at least not in English.

Any links please?

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

You sound like someone with a ruralist, agrarian or back to the land philosophy. If so you might find the article "New Blood" released last year by the Royal Agricultural Society of England interesting. Link below.

http://www.rase.org.uk/about_RASE/news/latest_news/NewBloodReport.pdf

As for immigration it is very simple, pure economics. For centuries the Irish left their poor Island by the millions to find jobs. More recently Ireland has thrived economically and just like that no more emmigrants.

"There should be Sharia introduced into these western countries – that would be more just."

There is more truth there than you know. Spain's greatest historical period was probably the eight centuries it spent under Islam.

[Arshama]

Barry,

EA is again the first to publish this news in English!
RM was talking on the 15th Festival of Medical Research, saying "Even Noah, who lived 950 years, could not establish justice because of incomplete management (i.e. mismanagement)."
Ay. Sadegh Tehrani, a renowned Coran interpreter, sharply replied to this and other insults to the prophets with Coran verses. Referring to RM's strange remarks on knowledge, he asks, if someone who profits from technological developments to build a nuclear bomb, which kills millions of innocent people, should be named a savant or an idiot? He closes with a kind of fatwa that the retention of RM in any official position is "haram".

Arshama

[Barry]

Emmigration = poor economics. Yes - I believe so.

"Spain’s greatest historical period was probably the eight centuries it spent under Islam." It was certainly a great "historical" period. The pre and post-Islamic periods in Spain were dark times. But the Western civilizations (including Spain very late) went though their Renaissance and Protestant periods, have largely eliminated their Fascist Dictators and are now thriving as Democracies. It is time for the Islamic world to pursue enlightenment as well.

The Mezquita in Cordoba is a sight to behold. Firstly a Christian Church, then a Mosque (second largest in Islam) and now once again a Church (Cathedral).

As an atheist (actually I have come across a term which is now more appropriate - a "post-theist") I am always uplifted by the beauty that man/womankind can create. The Mezquita is only one of many places that this applies to. Unfortunately and incongruously inspired by and devoted to the largest evil that has befallen mankind (since we took to standing on two legs) - institutionalized religion.

Barry

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

I will do some checking but, as the specialism is a bit distant from my own field, it may take some time to get an answer.

S.

[m. s.]

@AM
How is it that the statement by Dr Alimohammadi's students is pointed to in this post while the statement by his family is ignored? Doesn't THIS sound suspicious?!!!

@ anyone

How is it that when the statement by the late professor's students is talked about no one asks about the credibility of the source or gets suspicious if the statement was not written under force!!!! When are we going to leave this double-standard??? Whenever here something is claimed against the Iranian government we take it as a divine reality, but whatever the gov. says should be proved (and sometimes even when proved the proofs should be proven again!!!). When Dr Larijani and Dr Marandi talk about foreigners plotting the murder they are insulted and they are expected to being hard evidence but when the gov. is accused of doing the murder itself no one asks for proofs.

[Barry]

"while the statement by his family is ignored? "

I can't speak for everyone else - but I have "ignored" the statement by the family, because I have yet to see it in my language (English)

Barry

[Scott Lucas]

m.s.,

Personally, my interest in the students' statement was related to the question of whether Professor Ali-Mohammadi was involved in Iran's nuclear programme. I have also just noted a much different statement on the case, published by Allameh Tabatabei University.

Personally again, I am posting statements for readers to judge, especially in the absence of any proof of responsibility for Ali-Mohammadi's murder or of the motives behind the attack.

S.

[Arshama]

Scott,

Khabaronline denies any involvement of Professor Ali-Mohammadi:
"Professor Ali Mohammadi was not involved in nuclear program"
http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-36634.aspx

A.

[Catherine]

RE 17:35 GMT - Thanks so much for mentioning this programme. I watched it last night but couldn't find it on YouTube to post here.

Two things jumped out at me:
1) Siavush Randjbar-Daemi made the same point as Mr Smith, although expressed more as a likelyhood than an almost certainty: "(Mr Smith) The murder of Ali-Mohammadi was therefore almost certainly completely void of any government sanction or planning. It would be far-fetched to pin the blame on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government or on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, the hasty reaction of the authorities and the statements associating the event to foreign agents ..... are more an attempt to cover up an embarrassing operation by rogue internal forces than a plausible explanation for what really went on in Qeytarieh in northern Tehran yesterday."

2) In the 12 January Press TV interview Dr Marandi immediately accused the MEK as being the most probable perpetrator, whereas the next day on Inside Story he switched to Israel. I wonder who he'll finger when CNN gets around to trotting him out ... ? :-)

[Megan]

M.S.

"Whenever here something is claimed against the Iranian government we take it as a divine reality, but whatever the gov. says should be proved"

Hello? Hello? Earth to M.S., your beloved regime credibility is shot dead, do you copy?????

Regime has absolutely no credibility. Once you torture, rape and murder and lie about it and you are caught lying you will never have any credibility.

Remember Taraneh Mousavi burned body and all the nonsense about her being alive in Canada? Remember Amir Javadifar and Mohsen Rolalamini death in Kahrizak prison? Regime declared meningitis as a cause of death and they even went through the charade of announcing they were going to vaccinate people in custody with meningitis vaccine, and then the prison doctor testified they had died due to excessive physical trauma while in detention. Then the 26-year old healthy prison doctor (the same doctor who cites torture as a cause of death in Kharizak) himself dies in his sleep. Regime thugs say the doctor died due to heart attack. Then they realized that did not look too convincing so they changed the doctor’s manner of death to suicide (your regime thugs did not know how to spell homicide. Did they?). Shall I go on?

Why do you even expect any intelligent person believe anything this criminal regime says or does? We are not living under a rock in the wilderness like those Apes you name in your post.

Hello? Earth to M.S. Regime credibility is minus zero. Do you copy????

Please tell Mullah Ali and his Apes to go to hell.

Signed: Forever Mohareb

[Megan]

This is a video clip of an interview of an Iranian reporter in Iran by VOA. http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/071228.htm

The reporter voice has been distorted to protect his identity. The Iranian reporter is making a case that killing of Dr. Ali Mohammadi was a planned event by the regime. He compares and contrasts the bombing in Baluchistan with the bombing that killed the professor and says all government agencies including Seda v Sima (government broadcasting station) were prepared and unlike bombing in Baluchistan they knew who was killed and how he was killed and were unusually quick to announce the victims name, manner of his death, and the type of bomb without any investigation. He says Seda v Sima unlike Baluchistan incident was the first broadcasting outlet in Iran with the news while it was last in Baluchistan bombing. Members of Pasdaran were immediately at the university and at the professor classroom to break the news to his students. He also said no one in Iran buying the government talking points on why, how and who and believe this was done by the regime.

This video clip also shows Dr. Ali Mohammadi body at the scene of explosion. It is heart-wrenching to see a man dressed up for another day of teaching put on the pavement as if he is not a person.

Signed: Mohareb forever.

[Megan]

Scott,

Understood and thank you for looking into it.

If there is any truth to his Sabbatical and research in Sweden, that may be shed some light on why he was singled out.

I am also curious to know if there were other high value targets in that vicinity. I wonder if he was the intended target. People on the ground there may want to look at this angle as well.

[m. s.]

Scott,
Thank you for the clarification. Actually I had not read the other post you mentioned but still I think you'd better look into the statement by the doctor's family. And one more thing, What do YOU think of the murder?

Megan,
I'm sorry for you because whenever someone brings about a different voice here you try to stop him/her with your harsh words and insults. You talk as if you are the only person who suffers from all these examples that you provided and as if I were the person behind all these!!! Come on, don't consider yourself as the only person who knows the truth and has the right to being sympathetic and concerned about the Iranian people. Why don't you try to be tolerant??? This is far from being academic and objective so I prefer not to engage in responding you further.

[Scott Lucas]

m.s.,

I have seen the statement and will investigate, as its authenticity is now disputed (see today's updates).

Personally, I think it's important that I just report what information is provided on the murder. The placing of blame may be politically significant, serving the agenda of whoever is making the claim, but I see no evidence at this point to cast an "objective" judgement on who carried this out.

S.

[ange paris]

M.S
You always defend this regime innocently and never iranian people who fight for their rights; I can understand how Megan could be disappointed ! Don't play please we are not the children ! if you are with iranian people , don't ask for trust of this government ! anyway we don't need your "sympathie" !
Good luck

[Adam]

Now that the "statement by the family" that MS was putting forth as fact has been debunked by the family and it is clear that the family knows that regime hardliners were behind the murder (which frankly was clear to any objective observer from the beginning), can we agree to stop letting pro-regime hackers like Samuel, Ali Khamenei, and MS use this site as their "great lie" forum?

[teez negah]

Adam-we cannot institute censorship-this is a democratic forum- just because you do not agree with samuel and m.s.. FYI-"Ali Khamenei "is tongue in cheek.

[ange paris]

After what the iranian regime has done to his own people, innocent people, they have to go to "HELL" with their sympathic agents ! I believe in GOD , this energy exist; I have always been very lucky in my life therefore I deduce that he likes me and if I am on this path, believing in rights , justice, and green movement, it's not for nothing ! We Will Win !

[m. s.]

@Scott
Thank you for your response. I'm looking forward to your investigation results.

@ ange paris and Adam
Now I understand how you break with the ideas you claim to be supportive of. you even don't want to hear one different voice here and at the same time rebuke Iranian government of suppressing the opposition voice. you are doing the same thing in a different way. Maybe you would have acted harsher if you had the power to do so!

[ange paris]

M.S
How you are open minded !!!!! but it works only in "single ticket" way ! what I couldn't support is lying and hypocrisy ! did you ever praise the bravery of our people, even once ? no I don't think so ! your comments are always to critisis why EA has forgotten to say anything in favor of governement; there is here someone called Samuel, I like him even if he's pro regime because he's not hypocrite and I sense he's deeply nice ! so please don't give moral lessons with your sugary speech !! berk !!!!!!!!