The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (8 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (8 January --- Evening)

Latest article: Follow-Up on Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

3:48 p.m. The perils of Twitter. CNN's story on an Israeli strike on a school in northern Gaza, circulated 30 minutes ago, was actually about the strike on Jabaliya two days ago.

3:30 p.m. Missed this earlier: an eighth Israeli soldier has been killed, hit by an anti-tank missile.

3 p.m. Israeli military says 20 rockets fired from Gaza on Wednesday and 16 so far on Thursday, numbers which are still down from levels at start of conflict. Further evidence that Hamas military units are limiting deployments in the field and staying in cities?



2:15 p.m. Al Jazeera now has a full report on the Israeli firing on the UN aid convoy. One Palestinian was killed.

Israeli operations in Rafah, after warnings to residents to evacuate their homes, concentrated on the bombing of tunnels rather than entry into the city.

2:03 p.m. If We Can't See It, It Doesn't Exist: CNN International has nothing --- nothing --- on the Red Cross report of dead and wounded and firing upon medical personnel by Israeli forces.

It does, however, report on Israeli forces bulldozing a Gazan house, despite white flags on the roof, because correspondent Ben Wedeman can see it from across the border.

2 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram writes about yesterday's "respite":

Most people headed for the bakeries, others rushed around with empty containers looking for drinking water. I joined a queue in front of a bakery but unfortunately returned without a single loaf since the bread ran out before it was my turn. Going to the green market was disappointing; there weren't enough vegetables. There were onions and cucumbers but tomatoes, the one thing everyone wants, were scarce. Nor was there any eggplant. There was something on sale that we don't use so much here: sweet pepper, considered a luxury because it's expensive.

1:35 p.m. More interesting stonewalling from IDF spokeswoman Liebovich: she denies any knowledge of Israeli forces firing on ambulances taking away Gazan wounded. Responding to Red Cross complaint, she says, "I don't think it's serious to investigate an event through a press release."

1:30 p.m. UN says aid convoy is fired upon by Israelis. Speaking to al Jazeera, Israeli Defense Forces spokeswoman Avital Liebovich claims to have no knowledge of incident.

Liebovich talks down the firing of rockets into northern Israel as an "isolated incident", indicating both Israel and Hezbollah wish to avoid a second front in the conflict.

1:05 p.m. One of the little-noticed curiosities of the Israeli campaign so far is the relatively light number of "militant" deaths. With more than 300 of the 700 dead are women and children, even if every male killed was a Hamas activist, less than 400 of the bad guys have been slain.

The probable reason? Unsurprisingly, Hamas fighters have not stayed out in the open to be picked off by Israeli forces but have gone back into urban areas. This explains in part why the Israeli Cabinet is in protracted deliberations over whether to order its military into the cities.

The Washington Post has further details.



12:50 p.m. Confirmation of more than 60 Israeli airstrikes overnight, a significant escalation

12:30 p.m. The Israeli Consulate in New York will not be amused: The New York Times has three opinion pieces today --- by Rashid Khalidi, Nicholas Kristof, and Gideon Lichfield --- critical of Israeli strategy and operations in Gaza.

12:10 p.m. Israeli Cabinet has postponed decision on expansion of ground offensive. Information is that minority in Cabinet wish to expand immediately, expelling Hamas and occupying Gaza until a new "responsible" government can be established. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak opposes, however, preferring to exhaust all diplomatic options before moving to a "Phase 3" of the invasion.

Further information that Barak and Olmert support the diplomatic route while Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is in favour of expanded military operations.

12 noon: Israeli bombardment continues near Jabaliya and Beit Lahoun in northern Gaza.

11:38 a.m. Al Jazeera correspondent says "remarkable" that no casualties in senior citizens' home hit by rocket in Nasariya in northern Israel.

11:35 a.m. Another diplomatic front: Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani met Syrian official and Hamas leaders, including Khaled Mashaal, on Wednesday. Larijani also met representatives of the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad.

11:30 a.m. Gazan death toll now over 700; one-third are children. Israeli death toll is 10, of which seven are soldiers.

11:25 a.m. International Committee of the Red Cross is demanding immediate access to Gaza. The demand follows the incidents in Zeitoun where, in addition to the discovery of dozens of bodies, Red Cross and Red Crescent workers found "weak children laying with their dead mothers".

11:15 a.m. Analysis in Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:

The five [Israeli] brigades operating in the Strip are preparing as if they will be ordered to take over the entire Strip, but the General Staff believe that the politicians want a deal. In the field the sense is that Hamas has been pushed to the heart of the urban centers, and is avoiding direct contact with the IDF as much as possible.

11 a.m. Al Jazeera reports more rockets from Lebanon fired into northern Israel. Images of damage in Nahariya being shown. Israeli defense sources say that Hezbollah is not responsible; Palestinians in Lebanon more likely.

In Gaza, reports of an Israeli strike on a hospital.

Morning Update: Four rockets from Lebanon have struck northern Israel, wounding two people. The Lebanese Army says that "an unknown group" is responsible. Hamas has denied any involvement, and analysts are suggesting that Palestinians living in Lebanon may have fired the rockets.

The negotiations in Cairo today apparently will be "shuttle" negotiations with brokers talking to Israel and the Palestinian Authority and then to Hamas. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit confirmed that, if Hamas representatives attend, "they will not be in the same room as other negotiators".

The United Nations General Assembly will convene to discuss the crisis. This is a logical next step: the Libyan-drafted resolution for an immediate ceasefire will go before the Security Council on Thursday but, even if it had majority support, will be vetoed by the United States.

Follow-Up on Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

Latest Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (8 Jan — Evening)
Latest Updates on the Situation in Gaza (8 January)

On Sunday, we suggested that the Israeli Cabinet had planned for attacks on Gaza as soon as the December cease-fire expired. A well-sourced analysis by Steve Niva in Foreign Policy in Focus offers detail on this "strategic escalation":

War of Choice: How Israel Manufactured the Gaza Escalation



Israel has repeatedly claimed that it had "no choice" but to wage war on Gaza on December 27 because Hamas had broken a ceasefire, was firing rockets at Israeli civilians, and had "tried everything in order to avoid this military operation," as Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni put it.

This claim, however, is widely at odds with the fact that Israel's military and political leadership took many aggressive steps during the ceasefire that escalated a crisis with Hamas, and possibly even provoked Hamas to create a pretext for the assault. This wasn't a war of "no choice," but rather a very avoidable war in which Israeli actions played the major role in instigating.

Israel has a long history of deliberately using violence and other provocative measures to trigger reactions in order to create a pretext for military action, and to portray its opponents as the aggressors and Israel as the victim. According to the respected Israeli military historian Zeev Maoz in his recent book, Defending the Holy Land, Israel most notably used this policy of "strategic escalation" in 1955-1956, when it launched deadly raids on Egyptian army positions to provoke Egypt's President Nasser into violent reprisals preceding its ill-fated invasion of Egypt; in 1981-1982, when it launched violent raids on Lebanon in order to provoke Palestinian escalation preceding the Israeli invasion of Lebanon; and between 2001-2004, when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon repeatedly ordered assassinations of high-level Palestinian militants during declared ceasefires, provoking violent attacks that enabled Israel's virtual reoccupation of the West Bank.

Israel's current assault on Gaza bears many trademark elements of Israel's long history of employing "strategic escalation" to manufacture a major crisis, if not a war.
Making War 'Inevitable'

The countdown to a war began, according to a detailed report by Barak Raviv in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, when Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak started planning the current attack on Gaza with his chiefs of staff at least six months ago — even as Israel was negotiating the Egyptian brokered ceasefire with Hamas that went into effect on June 19. During the subsequent ceasefire, the report contends, the Israeli security establishment carefully gathered intelligence to map out Hamas' security infrastructure, engaged in operational deception, and spread disinformation to mislead the public about its intentions.

This revelation doesn't confirm that Israel intended to start a war with Hamas in December, but it does shed some light on why Israel continuously took steps that undermined the terms of the fragile ceasefire with Hamas, even though Hamas respected their side of the agreement.

Indeed, there was a genuine lull in rocket and mortar fire between June 19 and November 4, due to Hamas compliance and only sporadically violated by a small number of launchings carried out by rival Fatah and Islamic Jihad militants, largely in defiance of Hamas. According to the conservative Israeli-based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center's analysis of rocket and missile attacks in 2008, there were only three rockets fired at Israel in July, September, and October combined. Israeli civilians living near Gaza experienced an almost unprecedented degree of security during this period, with no Israeli casualties.

Yet despite the major lull, Israel continually raided the West Bank, arresting and frequently killing "wanted" Palestinians from June to October, which had the inevitable effect of ratcheting up pressure on Hamas to respond. Moreover, while the central expectation of Hamas going into the ceasefire was that Israel would lift the siege on Gaza, Israel only took the barest steps to ease the siege, which kept the people at a bare survival level. This policy was a clear affront to Hamas, and had the inescapable effect of undermining both Hamas and popular Palestinian support for the ceasefire.

But Israel's most provocative action, acknowledged by many now as the critical turning point that undermined the ceasefire, took place on November 4, when Israeli forces auspiciously violated the truce by crossing into the Gaza Strip to destroy what the army said was a tunnel dug by Hamas, killing six Hamas militants. Sara Roy, writing in the London Review of Books, contends this attack was "no doubt designed finally to undermine the truce between Israel and Hamas established last June."

The Israeli breach into Gaza was immediately followed by a further provocation by Israel on November 5, when the Israeli government hermetically sealed off all ways into and out of Gaza. As a result, the UN reports that the amount of imports entering Gaza has been "severely reduced to an average of 16 truckloads per day — down from 123 truckloads per day in October and 475 trucks per day in May 2007 — before the Hamas takeover." These limited shipments provide only a fraction of the supplies needed to sustain 1.5 million starving Palestinians.

In response, Hamas predictably claimed that Israel had violated the truce and allowed Islamic Jihad to launch a round of rocket attacks on Israel. Only after lethal Israeli reprisals killed over 10 Hamas gunmen in the following days did Hamas militants finally respond with volleys of mortars and rockets of their own. In two short weeks, Israel killed over 15 Palestinian militants, while about 120 rockets and mortars were fired at Israel, and although there were no Israeli casualties the calm had been shattered.

It was at this time that Israeli officials launched what appears to have been a coordinated media blitz to cultivate public reception for an impending conflict, stressing the theme of the "inevitability" of a coming war with Hamas in Gaza. On November 12, senior IDF officials announced that war with Hamas was likely in the two months after the six-month ceasefire, baldly stating it would occur even if Hamas wasn't interested in confrontation. A few days later, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert publicly ordered his military commanders to draw up plans for a war in Gaza, which were already well developed at the time. On November 19, according to Raviv's report in Haaretz, the Gaza war plan was brought before Barak for final approval.

While the rhetoric of an "inevitable" war with Hamas may have only been Israeli bluster to compel Hamas into line, its actions on the ground in the critical month leading up to the official expiration of the ceasefire on December 19 only heightened the cycle of violence, leaving a distinct impression Israel had cast the die for war.

Finally, Hamas then walked right into the "inevitable war" that Israel had been preparing since the ceasefire had gone into effect in June. With many Palestinians believing the ceasefire to be meaningless, Hamas announced it wouldn't renew the ceasefire after it expired on December 19. Hamas then stood back for two days while Islamic Jihad and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades militants fired volleys of mortars and rockets into Israel, in the context of mutually escalating attacks. Yet even then, with Israeli threats of war mounting, Hamas imposed a 24-hour ceasefire on all missile attacks on December 21, announcing it would consider renewing the lapsed truce with Israel in the Gaza Strip if Israel would halt its raids in both Gaza and the West Bank, and keep Gaza border crossings open for supplies of aid and fuel. Israel immediately rejected its offer.

But when the Israel Defence Forces killed three Hamas militants laying explosives near the security fence between Israel and Gaza on the evening of December 23, the Hamas military wing lashed out by launching a barrage of over 80 missiles into Israel the following day, claiming it was Israel, and not Hamas, that was responsible for the escalation.

Little did they know that, according to Raviv, Prime Minister Olmert, and Defense Minister Barak had already met on December 18 to approve the impending war plan, but put the mission off waiting for a better pretext. By launching more than 170 rockets and mortars at Israeli civilians in the days following December 23, killing one Israeli civilian, Hamas had provided reason enough for Israel to unleash its long-planned attack on Gaza on December 27.
The Rationale for War

If Israel's goal were simply to end rocket attacks on its civilians, it would have solidified and extended the ceasefire, which was working well, until November. Even after November, it could have addressed Hamas' longstanding ceasefire proposals for a complete end to rocket-fire on Israel, in exchange for Israel lifting its crippling 18-month siege on Gaza.

Instead, the actual targets of its assault on Gaza after December 27, which included police stations, mosques, universities, and Hamas government institutions, clearly reveal that Israel's primary goals go far beyond providing immediate security for its citizens. Israeli spokespersons repeatedly claim that Israel's assault isn't about seeking to effect regime change with Hamas, but rather about creating a "new security reality" in Gaza. But that "new reality" requires Israel to use massive violence to degrade the political and military capacity of Hamas, to a point where it agrees to a ceasefire with conditions more congenial to Israel. Short of a complete reoccupation of Gaza, no amount of violence will erase Hamas from the scene.

Confirming the steps needed to create the "new reality," the broader reasons why Israel chose a major confrontation with Hamas at this time appear to be the cause of several other factors unrelated to providing immediate security for its citizens.

First, many senior Israeli political and military leaders strongly opposed the June 19 ceasefire with Hamas, and looked for opportunities to reestablish Israel's fabled "deterrent capability" of instilling fear into its enemies. These leaders felt Israel's deterrent capability was badly damaged as a result of their withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, and especially after the widely criticized failures in the 2006 Israeli war with Hezbollah. For this powerful group a ceasefire was at best a tactical pause before the inevitable renewal of conflict, when conditions were more favorable. Immediately following Israel's aerial assault, a New York Times article noted that Israel had been eager "to remind its foes that it has teeth" and to erase the ghost of Lebanon that has haunted it over the past two years.

A second factor was pressure surrounding the impending elections set to take place in early February. The ruling coalition, led by Barak and Livni, have been repeatedly criticized by the Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister, who is leading in the polls, for not being tough enough on Hamas and rocket-fire from Gaza. This gave the ruling coalition a strong incentive to demonstrate to the Israeli people their security credentials in order to bolster their chances against the more hawkish Likud.

Third, Hamas repeatedly said it wouldn't recognize Mahmud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority after his term runs out on January 9. The looming political standoff on the Palestinian side threatens to boost Hamas and undermine Abbas, who had underseen closer security coordination with Israel and was congenial to Israeli demands for concessions on future peace proposals. One possible outcome of this assault is that Abbas will remain in power for a while longer, since Hamas will be unable to mobilise its supporters in order to force him to resign.

And finally, Israel was pressed to take action now due to its sense of the American political timeline. The Bush administration rarely exerted constraint on Israel and would certainly stand by in its waning days, while Barack Obama would not likely want to begin his presidency with a major confrontation with Israel. The Washington Post quoted a Bush administration official saying that Israel struck in Gaza "because they want it to be over before the next administration comes in. They can't predict how the next administration will handle it. And this is not the way they want to start with the new administration."
An Uncertain Ending

As the conflict rages to an uncertain end, it's important to consider Israeli military historian Zeev Maoz's contention that Israel's history of manufacturing wars through "strategic escalation" and using overwhelming force to achieve "deterrence" has never been successful. In fact, it's the primary cause of Israel's insecurity because it deepens hatred and a desire for revenge rather than fear.

At the same time, there's no question Hamas continues to callously sacrifice its fellow Palestinian citizens, as well as Israeli civilians, on the altar of maintaining its pyrrhic resistance credentials and its myopic preoccupation with revenge, and fell into many self-made traps of its own. There had been growing international pressure on Israel to ease its siege and a major increase in creative and nonviolent strategies drawing attention to the plight of Palestinians such as the arrival of humanitarian relief convoys off of Gaza's coast in the past months, but now Gaza lies in ruins.

But as the vastly more powerful actor holding nearly all the cards in this conflict, the war in Gaza was ultimately Israel's choice. And for all this bloodshed and violence, Israel must be held accountable.

With the American political establishment firmly behind Israel's attack, and Obama's foreign policy team heavily weighted with pro-Israel insiders like Dennis Ross and Hillary Clinton, any efforts to hold Israel accountable in the United States will depend upon American citizens mobilizing a major grassroots effort behind a new foreign policy that will not tolerate any violations of international law, including those by Israel, and will immediately work towards ending Israel's siege of Gaza and ending Israel's occupation.

Beyond that, the most promising prospect for holding Israel accountable is through the increasing use of universal jurisdiction for prosecuting war crimes, along with the growing transnational movement calling for sanctions on Israel until it ends its violations of international law. In what would be truly be a new style of foreign policy, a transnational network that focuses on Israeli violations of international law, rather than the state itself, could become a counterweight that forces policymakers in the United States, Europe, and Israel to reconsider their political and moral complicity in the current war, in favor of taking real steps towards peace and security in the region for all peoples.

Rolling Updates on Israeli Invasion of Gaza (5 January)

Later Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

2:55 a.m. Downtime until the morning. Thanks for all your support and comments today.

2:30 a.m. The lull continues but, as former Israeli Ambassador to the UN Dan Gillerman denies on Al Jazeera that a "National Information Directorate" exists (which is a bold move, given that the NID was "outed" in The Observer of London on Sunday), signs that Israel's information campaign may not be able to hold open the window for military operations very long.

CNN International is not only leading with footage of the hospitals crisis in Gaza but pointedly noted they obtained this footage despite an Israeli-imposed ban on journalists inside the territory.

Israel tried to counter this by playing up their permission for 80 truckloads of aid (just over 1/10 the pre-conflict amount) into southern Gaza on Monday. On this evidence, this won't be enough to hold back mounting criticism.

1:25 a.m. Developments on the diplomatic front: Arab Foreign Ministers have met in New York but it is already clear that a Libyan-sponsored resolution, blocked by the US last weekend, is "dead". Instead, talk is of a French-drafted resolution, which Paris is hoping will be supported by Arab representatives. United Nations sources say this will include calls for an immediate ceasefire, a "humanitarian corridor" for aid, and a "monitoring mechanism". With the manoeuvring needed for any hope of passage, the resolution will not be brought up for a vote on Tuesday.

The Gazan death toll is now at least 548. UN officials in Gaza continue to emphasise that this is "a humanitarian crisis".


11:30 p.m. A bit of a lull in developments on military and diplomatic fronts. Al Jazeera reports that the fighting around Gaza City seems for an elevated area just outside the city which provides a vantage point across northern Gaza.

9:30 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin on the current Israeli bombardment: "Almost every building in Israel's definition is a Hamas building."



9:05 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces trying to take strategic overlook looking down on Jabaliya refugee camp, the largest in Gaza.

8:55 p.m. Israeli bloggers claim that the English website of Al Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, has been hacked by Israel. Both English and Arabic sites of Al Qassam are currently offline.

8:50 p.m. CNN is way behind the story. As fighting intensifies around and possibly in Gaza City, this is their website lead: "Hamas militants fired dozens of rockets into southern Israel on Monday despite a 10-day Israeli military campaign that reportedly has left more than 500 Palestinians dead."

8:45 p.m. Arab foreign ministers, who have mostly sat on their hands during this crisis, finally decide they have to make some pretence at action. Palestine Authority, Libyan, Moroccan, and Jordanian ministers are en route to New York.

8:20 p.m. The explosions we noted an hour ago seem to be the "softening-up" artillery shelling for an Israeli advance on Gaza City. The armed wing of Islamic Jihad has told Al Jazeera that Israeli tanks are trying to move into the city, and Israeli sources have confirmed that a "major battle" is taking place on the northern outskirts.

7:20 p.m. Affidavit of "Maher Najjar, Deputy Director, Coastal Municipalities Water Utility" now on-line:

As of last night, there is no electricity at all in Gaza City....Two of the lines feeding electricity to Rafah, one from Israel and one from Egypt, have been damaged.... I have no additional diesel reserves, and I cannot obtain additional diesel right now. The water wells and sewage pumping stations that still have diesel will run out within a few days, others have none.

7:15 p.m. As Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin gives live report from Gaza City, massive explosion on-screen behind him. Moyheldin: "There's nowhere for the residents of that area to go....You're seeing a very modern army unleashing weapons on a defenceless population."

7:10 p.m. Most inept disinformation campaign: "Al Jazera" on Twitter --- Sample update: "The leaders of Hamas say 'we will hide as long as needed, our women and children will suffer for us'"

7:05 p.m. Al Jazeera correspondents reporting fireballs and "white explosions" in northern Gaza.

6:30 p.m. Following story in The Times of London that Israel used white phosphorous bombs to cover its ground invasion, Moussa el-Haddad, Gaza resident and father of blogger Laila el-Haddad ("Gazamom"), reports "series of bombs in a row, followed by a large white halo, white smoke; people in vicinity cannot breathe...irritation, and exposed areas [of body] become red, blistered, and itchy".

6 p.m. Hamas spokesman Moussa Abu Marzouk in Damascus to Reuters: Hamas is open to truce in Gaza but only if Israel lifts its blockade:

Any initiative not based on ending the aggression, opening the border crossings and an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has no chance of succeeding.

5:55 p.m. Al-Jazeera reports that the first week of the Gaza offensive has resulted in estimated losses of $1.5 billion.

5 p.m. The statement of Hamas military spokesman Abu Ubeida is now summarised on-line: claims of one Israeli helicopter downed, one tank and one personnel carrier destroyed, one POW taken

4:55 p.m. Al Jazeera reports Al-Awda hospital in northern Gaza hit by two artillery shells

4:35 p.m. The Guardian of London is reporting "gun battles in the streets of Gaza City for the first time this morning"  with Israeli troops going house-to-house looking for Hamas fighters

4:20 p.m. Fares Akram, the Gaza correspondent for The Independent of London, writes about his father, killed by an Israeli bomb in northern Gaza on Saturday:

My father, Akrem al-Ghoul, was no militant. Born in Gaza and educated in Egypt, he was a lawyer and a judge who worked for the Palestinian Authority. After Hamas took over, he quit and turned to agriculture....

As a grieving son, I am finding it hard to distinguish between what the Israelis call terrorists and the Israeli pilots and tank crews who are invading Gaza. What is the difference between the pilot who blew my father to pieces and the militant who fires a small rocket? I have no answers but, just as I am to become a father, I have lost my father.

4:15 p.m. Al Jazeera: 70 percent of Gazans without clean drinking water, food distribution suspended in northern Gaza

Hassan Khalaf, director of Al Shifa hospital: "What is happening is genocide."

3:55 p.m. Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida says on Al Aqsa Television said on Monday that the group has "thousands" of fighters and will welcome Israel into Gaza "with fire and iron"

3:03 p.m. Al Jazeera reports eyewitness accounts of Israeli troops demolishing some houses and taking up positions on rooftops of others.

2:42 p.m. Now Livni sets out the rest of her strategy, pointing to restoration of Fatah/Palestinian Authority in Gaza --- Agreement on border crossings (and thus passage of aid) was in 2005 with EU and "legitimate" Palestinian Authority --- Hamas is "illegitimate"

Head of EU delegation: EU "insists on cease-fire at earliest possible moment", not after Israeli military operations --- We have difference in view from Israel on this: "This has to be clearly set."

2:34 p.m. If Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni sets out same line in private that she has just set out in public, there is no hope of any Israeli movement toward cease-fire --- Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "Everybody here knows that European Union is peripheral....Israel is satellite of United States"

Livni lays out the political strategy of "moderates" with Israel against "extremists": "Everybody in this region needs to choose where he belongs" --- Hamas is connected with Iran, Damascus, and Hezbollah

2:25 p.m. Press conference of EU delegation and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has just started --- Livni: "Situation is that we face terror....Now we need to against terror, against Hamas."

2:22 p.m. Intriguing diplomatic manoeuvre: Speaker of Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani travelling to Damascus to meet Syrian President Bashir al-Assad and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal.

2:20 p.m. YNet News reports 24 rockets fired at southern Israel with several people lightly wounded.

2:15 p.m. Al Jazeera is focusing on humanitarian crisis and now the increasing number of child fatalities:

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_gEBO-6VRjs[/youtube]



12:35 p.m United Nations Relief and Works Agency representative tells CNN that 250,000 Gazans have no access to clean water. It is a "rapidly deteriorating situation".

Fuel terminal is due to reopen today. Israel says it is sending in 80 trucks today (compared to 750/day during the truce period).

12:30 p.m. Oxfam tell BBC that they cannot bring food into Gaza because of the security risk.

11:40 a.m. In case you missed it, this report from Israel's Ha'aretz:

The ground invasion was preceded by large-scale artillery shelling from around 4 P.M....Hundreds of shells were fired, including cluster bombs aimed at open areas.

11:05 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has issued an updated report, through 5 p.m yesterday, on the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza:

It is essential that patients and ambulances are able to reach hospitals, that agencies are able to access warehouses in order to conduct distributions. Currently movement within the Strip is severely challenged.

10:50 a.m. Yesterday we noted one of few examples of "Palestinian viewpoint" on CNN, the interview with Gazan resident Moussa el-Haddad and his daughter Laila in North Carolina. Interview has just been repeated on CNN International.

Laila el-Haddad is posting on events in Gaza via Twitter.

10:40 a.m. Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz calls for move from military operations to diplomacy:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Jerusalem today provides Israel with an exit ramp from the fighting against Hamas in Gaza. Sarkozy proposes declaring a lull in combat, which would test whether Hamas would agree to halt firing rockets. Israel would do well to respond affirmatively to the proposal, which protects its right to respond with force in the event the Palestinians continue firing from the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal puts out Israeli public-relations line:

In the clearest break from a strategy it used to pursue Hezbollah militants in Lebanon in 2006, Israeli leaders have set out clearly defined -- and relatively modest -- expectations for the current Gaza offensive.

10:20 a.m. A day of activity on the diplomatic front, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a Hamas delegation in Cairo and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in New York. A European Union delegation is arriving in Egypt before continuing to Israel and possibly Palestinian territories.

On Sunday, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Sunday, and Russian envoy Alexander Saltonov met Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Neither discussion produced any breakthroughs --- Livni pointedly rejected Saltanov's offer of communication with Hamas via Russia:

We are serious in our intention to harm Hamas and we have no intention to give them legitimize them and pass messages on to them. We have nothing to discuss with Hamas.

10:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine time: Israel has continued its aerial and artillery bombardment in support of its ground offensive, hitting 30 Hamas targets as well as a mosque which the Israeli Defense Forces claimed was storing weapons.

The Gazan death toll is now 521. At least 12 more civilians, including seven members of a family, have been killed in strikes on refugee camps and homes.

The IDF says 30 rockets were fired into southern Israel on Sunday. The number, while less than the number launched at the start of the 10-day conflict, is an increase from the the 20 fired on Saturday.

Most Gazans are confined to homes without electricity and with shortages of food and water.

Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

Months ago, as Israel prepared to unleash its latest wave of desolation against Gaza, it recognised that blasting Hamas and "the infrastructure of terror", which includes police stations, homes and mosques, was a straightforward task.

A reader from Turkey asks, "What is the main argument behind your view that the Israeli operations were already planned in June? Do you specifically mean the visit of Olmert to US on 2nd of June?"

I'm not sure if Olmert and the Bush Administration would have discussed the Israeli planning, but the following from Chris McGreal in The Observer of London is an excellent account both of the preparations for military operations and the information campaign to accompany them.



Why Israel went to war in Gaza

It is a war on two fronts. Months ago, as Israel prepared to unleash its latest wave of desolation against Gaza, it recognised that blasting Hamas and "the infrastructure of terror", which includes police stations, homes and mosques, was a straightforward task.

Israel also understood that a parallel operation would be required to persuade the rest of the world of the justice of its cause, even as the bodies of Palestinian women and children filled the mortuaries, and to ensure that its war was seen not in terms of occupation but of the west's struggle against terror and confrontation with Iran.

After the debacle of its 2006 invasion of Lebanon - not only a military disaster for Israel, but also a political and diplomatic one - the government in Tel Aviv spent months laying the groundwork at home and abroad for the assault on Gaza with quiet but energetic lobbying of foreign administrations and diplomats, particularly in Europe and parts of the Arab world.

A new information directorate was established to influence the media, with some success. And when the attack began just over a week ago, a tide of diplomats, lobby groups, bloggers and other supporters of Israel were unleashed to hammer home a handful of carefully crafted core messages intended to ensure that Israel was seen as the victim, even as its bombardment killed more than 430 Palestinians over the past week, at least a third of them civilians or policemen.

The unrelenting attack on Gaza, with an air strike every 20 minutes on average, has not stopped Hamas firing rockets that have killed four Israelis since the assault began, reaching deeper into the Jewish state than ever before and sending tens of thousands of people fleeing. Last night Israel escalated its action further, as its troops poured across Gaza's border, part of what appeared to be a significant ground invasion. And a diplomatic operation is already in full swing to justify the further cost in innocent lives that would almost certainly result.

Dan Gillerman, Israel's ambassador to the UN until a few months ago, was brought in by the Foreign Ministry to help lead the diplomatic and PR campaign. He said that the diplomatic and political groundwork has been under way for months.

"This was something that was planned long ahead," he said. "I was recruited by the foreign minister to coordinate Israel's efforts and I have never seen all parts of a very complex machinery - whether it is the Foreign Ministry, the Defence Ministry, the prime minister's office, the police or the army - work in such co-ordination, being effective in sending out the message."

In briefings in Jerusalem and London, Brussels and New York, the same core messages were repeated: that Israel had no choice but to attack in response to the barrage of Hamas rockets; that the coming attack would be on "the infrastructure of terror" in Gaza and the targets principally Hamas fighters; that civilians would die, but it was because Hamas hides its fighters and weapons factories among ordinary people.
Hand in hand went a strategy to remove the issue of occupation from discussion. Gaza was freed in 2005 when the Jewish settlers and army were pulled out, the Israelis said. It could have flourished as the basis of a Palestinian state, but its inhabitants chose conflict.

Israel portrayed Hamas as part of an axis of Islamist fundamentalist evil with Iran and Hezbollah. Its actions, the Israelis said, are nothing to do with continued occupation of the West Bank, the blockade of Gaza or the Israeli military's continued killing of large numbers of Palestinians since the pullout. "Israel is part of the free world and fights extremism and terrorism. Hamas is not," the foreign minister and Kadima party leader, Tzipi Livni, said on arriving in France as part of the diplomatic offensive last week.

Earlier in the week Livni deployed the "with us or against us" rhetoric of George W Bush's war on terror. "These are the days when every individual in the region and in the world has to choose a side. And the sides have changed. No longer is it Israel on one side and the Arab world on the other," she said. "Israel chose its side the day it was established; the Jewish people chose its side during its thousands of years of existence; and the prayer for peace is the voice sounded in the synagogues."

It was a message pumped home with receptive Arab governments, such as Egypt and Jordan, which view Hamas with hostility. "Large parts of the Muslim and Arab world realise that Hamas represents a greater danger to them even than it does to Israel. Its extremism, its fundamentalism, is a great danger to them as well," said Gillerman. "We've seen the effect of that in numerous responses, in the public statements made by [Egypt's] President Mubarak and even by [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas and other Arabs. This is totally unprecedented."

Indeed, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said his government knew exactly what was coming: "The signs that Israel was determined to strike Hamas in Gaza for the past three months were clear. They practically wrote it in the sky. Unfortunately they [Hamas] served Israel the opportunity on a golden platter."

Also crucial was what was not said. Just a few months ago Livni was talking of wiping out Hamas, but that would be unpalatable to much of the outside world as a justification for the assault. So now the talk is of pressing Gaza's government to agree to a new ceasefire. Occasionally someone has got off-message. A couple of days into the assault on Gaza, Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gabriela Shalev, said it would continue for "as long as it takes to dismantle Hamas completely". Infuriated Israeli officials in Jerusalem warned her that such statements could set back the diplomatic offensive.

In the first hours of the attack, Israel repeated the same messages to the wider world. Livni and the Labour defence minister, Ehud Barak, were widely quoted on international TV. The government's national information directorate sought to focus foreign media attention on the 8,500 rockets fired from Gaza into Israel over the past eight years and the 20 civilians they have killed, rather than the punishing blockade of Gaza and the 1,700 Palestinians killed in Israeli military attacks since Jewish settlers were pulled out of Gaza three years ago.

Lobby groups, such as the British Israel Communications and Research Centre (Bicom) in London and the Israel Project in America, were mobilised. They arranged briefings, conference calls and interviews. The Israeli military posted video footage on YouTube. Israeli diplomats in New York arranged a two-hour "citizens' press conference" on Twitter for thousands of people. At the same time, Israel in effect barred foreign journalists from witnessing the results of its strategy.

Livni has suggested that Israel's assault is good for the Palestinians by helping to free them from the grip of Hamas. "She's basically trying to convince me that they're doing this for my own good," said Diana Buttu, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation's legal counsel and negotiator with the Israelis over the 2005 pullout from Gaza. "I've had some Israeli friends reiterate the same thing: 'You should be happy that we're rooting out Hamas. They're a problem for you, too.' I don't need her to tell me what's good for me and what's bad for me, and I don't think carrying out a massacre is good for anybody."

And when the killing started, Israel claimed that the overwhelming majority of the 400-plus killed were Hamas fighters and the buildings destroyed part of the infrastructure of terror. But about a third of the dead were policemen. Although the police force in Gaza is run by Hamas, Buttu said Israel is misrepresenting it as a terrorist organisation.

"The police force is largely used for internal law and order, traffic, the drug trade. They weren't fighters. They hit them at a graduation ceremony. Israel wants to kill anyone associated with Hamas, but where does it stop? Are you a legitimate target if you work in the civil service? Are you a legitimate target if you voted for Hamas?" she said.

Similarly, while Israel accuses Hamas of risking civilian lives by hiding the infrastructure of terror in ordinary neighbourhoods, many of the Israeli missile targets are police stations and other public buildings that are unlikely to be built anywhere else.

Israel argues that Hamas abandoned the June ceasefire that Tel Aviv was prepared to continue. "Israel is the first one who wants the violence to end. We were not looking for this. There was no other option. The truce was violated by Hamas," said Livni.

However, others say that the truce was thrown into jeopardy in November when the Israeli military killed six Hamas gunmen in a raid on Gaza. The Palestinians noted that it was election day in the US, so most of the rest of the world did not notice what happened. Hamas responded by firing a wave of rockets into Israel. Six more Palestinians died in two other Israeli attacks in the following week.

"They were assaulting Gaza militarily, by sea and by air, all through the ceasefire," said Buttu. Neither did the killing of Palestinians stop. In the nearly three years since Hamas came to power, and before the latest assault on Gaza, Israel forces had killed about 1,300 people in Gaza and the West Bank. While a significant number of them were Hamas activists - and while hundreds of Palestinians have been killed by other Palestinians in fighting between Hamas and Fatah - there has been a disturbing number of civilian deaths.
The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights says that one in four of the victims is aged under 18. Between June 2007 and June 2008, Israeli attacks killed 68 Palestinian children and young people in Gaza. Another dozen were killed in the West Bank.

In February, an Israeli missile killed four boys, aged eight to 14, playing football in the street in Jabalia. In April, Meyasar Abu-Me'tiq and her four children, aged one to five years old, were killed when an Israeli missile hit their house as they were having breakfast. Even during the ceasefire, Israel killed 22 people in Gaza, including two children and a woman.

Perhaps crucial to the ceasefire's collapse were the differing views of what it was supposed to achieve. Israel regarded the truce as calm in return for calm. Hamas expected Israel to lift the blockade of Gaza that the latter said was a security response to the firing of Qassam rockets.

But Israel did not end the siege that was wrecking the economy and causing desperate shortages of food, fuel and medicine. Gazans concluded that the blockade was not so much about rocket attacks as punishment for voting for Hamas.

Central to the Israeli message has been that, when it pulled out its military and Jewish settlers three years ago, Gaza was offered the opportunity to prosper. "In order to create a vision of hope, we took out our forces and settlements, but instead of Gaza being the beginning of a Palestinian state, Hamas established an extreme Islamic rule," said Livni. Israeli officials argue that Hamas, and by extension the people who elected it, was more interested in hating and killing Jews than building a country.

Palestinians see it differently. Buttu says that from the day the Israelis withdrew from Gaza, they set about ensuring that it would fail economically. "When the Israelis pulled out, we expected that the Palestinians in Gaza would at least be able to lead some sort of free life. We expected that the crossing points would be open. We didn't expect that we would have to beg to allow food in," she said.

Buttu notes that even before Hamas was elected three years ago, the Israelis were already blockading Gaza. The Palestinians had to appeal to US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and James Wolfensohn, the president of the World Bank, to pressure Israel to allow even a few score of trucks into Gaza each day. Israel agreed, then reneged. "This was before Hamas won the election. The whole Israeli claim is one big myth. If there wasn't already a closure policy, why did we need Rice and Wolfensohn to try to broker an agreement?" asked Buttu.

Yossi Alpher, a former official in the Mossad intelligence service and an ex-adviser on peace negotiations to the then prime minister, Ehud Barak, said the blockade of Gaza is a failed strategy that might have strengthened Hamas. "I don't think anyone can produce clear evidence that the blockade has been counterproductive, but it certainly hasn't been productive. It's very possible it's been counterproductive. It's collective punishment, humanitarian suffering. It has not caused Palestinians in Gaza to behave the way we want them to, so why do it?" he said. "I think people really believed that, if you starved Gazans, they will get Hamas to stop the attacks. It's repeating a failed policy, mindlessly."

Gaza Update (8 p.m. Israel; 6 p.m. Britain)

Urgent Update: Israeli Ground Forces Reportedly Entering Gaza

Israel diversified its attacks on Day 7 of the Gaza conflict. An Israeli airstrike on a mosque in northern Gaza killed 9 and wounded 60, and the American school in Gaza, a college building in El-Atatra, and Gaza's airport were also hit. A targeted assassination by missile killed Hamas commander Azkariah al-Jamal. Air and naval attacks were supplemented by Israeli artillery, which began shelling across the border.

Amidst speculation that Israel ground forces, massed on the border, may enter Gaza, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said "several operations" are possible if rocket fire continues.



The Palestinian death toll has reached 450. In addition to the latest casualties from attacks, wounded in hospital are dying because of a lack of medicine and equipment and overstretched medical personnel. Fifteen patients, including several children, died from wounds on Friday. The food crisis is getting worse, as Chris Gunness of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency noted:

Even when people want to get food for their hungry family, they are very aware of the dangers they are facing in going out....But, as things stand now, we have only a few days supply left.