The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (18 January)

Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest Post: Hello? Gaza is Not Tehran

1 a.m. Last night we closed with: "At the very least, I’m grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we’re at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship."

More of the same tonight. Today has been for mourning rather than dying --- only one death from violence to my knowledge, while close to 100 bodies have been pulled from the rubble. There appears to be a very gradual Israeli pullback from the edges of the cities as they re-trench in their military occupation.

The politics today was posturing, as a lot of leaders tried to figure out how to respond to Israel's unilateral "cease-fire". The Europeans appear to be paralysed, as they await a President Obama, while Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is scrambling to save his personal position. The Saudis have gone into hiding.

That means that the diplomatic baton --- perhaps unexpectedly, if you scripted this a month ago --- passes to Syria and other countries pursuing a stronger line in favour of Hamas. They will be at the Arab countries' economic summit in Kuwait tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see how forthright they take their position to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The main question remains: how long will Israel hold out with its re-occupation in the hope that Hamas will crumble?

Good night and peace to all.



12:30 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has told Al Jazeera that 53 UN installations have been destroyed or damaged in the Gaza conflict.

12 midnight: The "other" emerging regional bloc in this conflict, with Syria as the Arab country in the lead and including Turkey and Iran, took a back seat to the Sharm el-Sheikh summit today. Tomorrow, however, all Arab states are at an economic summit in Kuwait, and you can expect manoeuvring to take the lead in the discussions over Gaza. So this comment from Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, made on Friday at the Qatar mini-summit, might be noteworthy:

We will take care to remind our children of the Gaza slaughter. We will save the pictures of the children of Gaza with their wounds and blood, and we will teach our children that the strong believer is better than the weak. We will teach them: “An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, and he who started it is the more unjust. What is taken by force will not be returned but by force.

11:25 p.m. And now Political Quick Move of the Day: apparently Bono, while performing at the Inaugural Concert for President-elect Barack Obama, just shouted out for "a Palestinian dream". As an observer noted, "Oy, the Israelis are not going to like that." (Obama, having promised not to issue any meaningful statements on Gaza until Tuesday, will react in 36 hours.)

11 p.m. Dropping objectivity for a moment to offer the Horrific Propaganda Story of the Day:

The Israeli Consulate has Twittered proudly that "Israel Opens Field Clinic at Gaza Border to Treat Palestinian Wounded": "One Palestinian woman was already being treated in the clinic eight-bed clinic that includes a pharmacy, an X-ray machine and five consultation rooms."

Hmm, this feels like offering a fella a Band-Aid after you've beaten him to a pulp. I guess it would be churlish of me to note that it would take 650 of these clinics for all the wounded from the conflict. And even more churlish to note that a lot of wounded died in the last three weeks because of appalling conditions in hospitals and Israel's bombing and shelling of medical services.

8:45 p.m. The video report of the demolition of houses and killing of at least 14 in Khuza'a is now posted on YouTube.

8 p.m. Israel military sources say to Al Jazeera and Reuters, "I can confirm that a gradual withdrawal of our forces is under way," but it is unclear how many troops are involved and how far they are pulling back. Eyewitnesses are reporting some Israeli units are moving back from edge of Gaza City, and Israeli television is showing images of tanks re-crossing border from Gaza.

Israeli military says 19 rockets fired into Israel today.

7:30 p.m. Speaking of Rafah Kid, he has video on his website of the mass killing at Khuza'a, which an article today in The Observer exposed today as a possible Israeli war crime.

7:25 p.m. Rafah Kid offers a pertinent twist on the formula, put forth at today's Sharm el-Sheikh summit, of a "secure Israel and a viable Palestine":

Ha! Imagine if written like this --- "viable Israel and a secure Palestine". Because that's the paradox that is the cause of this mess.

7:20 p.m. More than 90 bodies found today in rubble in Gaza.

4:30 p.m. Further from the Sharm al-Sheikh summit: not much of significance. Notable that King Abdullah of Jordan talked about need for Europe and US to revive the peace process but did not refer to an Arab country apart from Egypt. And United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon made a speech that was so relevant that British and Spanish Prime Ministers Brown and Zapatero could be seen laughing and chatting about other matters.

4:25 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani: "This war, perhaps more than any other event in the last decade or so, has transformed peace into a dirty word and has transformed negotiations into an even dirtier word. And resistance, which had been very much a dirty word in the last 15 words, is now the word and the concept which is increasingly on the lips of the people in this region."

4:20 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani has just roasted Mubarak, Sarkozy, and Brown: "I'm speechless that in 2009, you can have a major international gathering to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict and have a whole series of keynote speeches in which the word 'occupation' is not mentions even once."

4:13 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who oftens play the aid card at international conferences, starts with a pledge to treble Britain's humanitarian aid to Gaza. That step, however, rests on Israeli goodwill towards aid distribution in Gaza, and Brown can only blather --- after a name-check to "President Obama" --- Europe must ensure political settlement to ensure "secure Israel and a viable Palestine".

4:10 p.m. French President Nicolas Sarkozy follows Mubarak. He initially emphasises the deal with Israel to stop arms shipments to Gaza but then delivers a stinger to Tel Aviv: "Israel should state immediately and clearly that, when rocket fire stops, the Israeli army will leave Gaza. There is no other solution for peace."

It looks like Israel may have unilaterally put itself into isolation over political and military issues in Gaza.

4 p.m This could be fun: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak just opened the Sharm el-Sheikh conference and, after the platitudes, told Israel to "get stuffed" on any ideas of an international force monitoring the Egypt-Gaza border from the Egyptian side: "Egypt will never accept a foreign force." Mubarak also invoked an "independent Palestianian state" without using the US and Israeli formula of the Palestinian Authority as the "legitimate Palestinian Government".

3:40 p.m. Another rocket reported to have hit Ashdod about 30 minutes ago.

3:20 p.m. A bit disturbing: Barack Obama either hasn't caught up with the plot or he is so cautious that he risks putting himself in a difficult position when he takes office on Tuesday: his spokesman says Obama "welcomes Israel's ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and is committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians work toward peace".

Unlike the Bush Administration and Condoleezza Rice's statement, which focused on the Cairo talks today and looked beyond Tel Aviv to put hope in a "true" internationally-arranged cease-fire, Obama is on the verge --- unintentionally or deliberately --- of tying himself to Israel.

3:07 p.m. Clarification on the Zeitoun atrocity: the number of "95 bodies" appears to have been a misstatement in the confusion as recovery efforts were disrupted by the advance of Israeli tanks. More than 100 people were in the al-Samouni compound; in addition to the more than 30 confirmed killed last week, at least 15 bodies have been recovered today and more are in the rubble.

3:05 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "It's going to take years to rebuild what has been destroyed in these 22 days."

2:45 p.m. An intriguing statement from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice which, despite Reuters' headline "US Welcomes Gaza Ceasefire", is far from a ringing endorsement.

Of course Rice did not criticise Tel Aviv, but she clearly looked beyond it when she said, "The goal remains a durable and fully respected ceasefire that will lead to stabilisation and normalisation in Gaza." In particular, Rice tried to boost the manoeuvres in Cairo today: "The United States commends Egypt for its efforts and remains deeply concerned by the suffering of innocent Palestinians. We welcome calls for immediate coordinated international action to increase assistance flows and will contribute to such efforts."

I suspect the US, like Egypt, has been a bit wrong-footed by Israel's unilateral move, and Washington is now trying to recover an international strategy towards Gaza and Hamas.

2:35 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "The destruction we are seeing is unimaginable." He says, "Streets have been bulldozed for kilometres", and building reduced to rubble.

2:30 p.m. An important move by Hamas: Ayman Taha has told Reuters that the Gazan organisation is ceasing fire for one week, giving Israel a chance to pull out of the territory.

2 p.m. The scale of the Zeitoun atrocity, which we noted last week, is becoming clear: medics report up to 95 bodies in the al-Samouni compound. Israeli tanks are in area, so ambulances, medical personnel, Al Jazeera's crew, and bystanders are fleeing.

1:50 p.m. Israeli military spokeswoman Amital Leibovich lays down Tel Aviv's line: "If Hamas chooses to still launch rockets, we'll answer back and we'll answer back harshly."

1:10 p.m. Israeli Government spokesman Mark Regev: "We can't talk about a timetable for withdrawal until we know the ceasefire is holding."

12:25 p.m. The first death of the "cease-fire": Gazan civilian killed by Israeli fire near Khan Younis.

11:35 a.m. The challenge to the Israeli strategy: The Observer of London offers this evaluation of Hamas, based on interviews with Gazans: "The organisation's prestige appears to have survived intact, and even emerged enhanced."

11 a.m. And The Observer of London is also preferring to look at issues beyond the "unilateral cease-fire":

Israel stands accused of perpetrating a series of war crimes during a sustained 12-hour assault on a village in southern Gaza last week in which 14 people died. In testimony collected from residents of the village of Khuza'a by the Observer, it is claimed that Israeli soldiers entering the village attempted to bulldoze houses with civilians inside; killed civilians trying to escape under the protection of white flags; opened fire on an ambulance attempting to reach the wounded; used indiscriminate force in a civilian area and fired white phosphorus shells.

10:50 a.m. The Independent of London is way off-script this morning, noting the cease-fire but leading with the headline: "'Tungsten bombs' leave Israel's victims with mystery wounds." Physicians, including the Norwegian doctor Erik Fosse who helped expose the scale of civilian casualties, detail the injuries suffered from dense inert metal explosive (DIME) weapons.

10:30 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: 25 bodies found as Gazans dig through rubble.

10:16 a.m. Tel Aviv, attempting both to gloss its claimed victory and to turn the game back towards Iran, puts out the Hamas=Tehran line: "Israeli leaders say the pounding of Hamas dealt a blow to Iran, which Israel accuses of backing the Palestinian group, and to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia in Lebanon that fought Israel to a stalemate in 2006."

10:15 a.m. Israeli Army announces that it has launched airstrikes against sites for this morning's rocket launches.

9:50 a.m. While we think the Israeli strategy sought "regime change" in Gaza, there is another explanation: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert --- and this has been "Olmert's War" --- wanted a military victory to erase his failure in 2006 against Hezbollah. Aluf Benn in Ha'aretz sets this out, but adds, "Hamas' gains cannot be ignored: It has won international legitimacy and sympathy, and its forces still control the Gaza Strip."

9:35 a.m. Our colleague Rami Khouri to Al Jazeera: "There is no chance of any unilateral move by Israel having any success. It has to be a negotiated agreement that responds to the basic legitimate needs of both sides."

9:25 a.m. At least four rockets fired towards Sderot in southern Israel this hour. Machine-gun fire in Gaza on the ground, with constant overflights by Israeli planes.

9:20 a.m. Hamas advisor Ahmed Youssef: Israel still occupying and threatening Gaza so "we have to do something. This is not a treaty. This is not a peaceful initiative. This is nothing." If Israel withdrew, "of course" Hamas would halt operations.

Morning update (9:15 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): So Gaza awoke this morning to the "cease-fire" that isn't a cease-fire. Israel, unable to finish off Hamas militarily with a battle in the cities, now moves into a "Phase 4": Tel Aviv hopes either to finish off its Gazan enemy through further political and economic constriction or, if Hamas offers a suitable pretext through rocket fire or attacks on Israeli troops, re-starting more bombing and even more intensive ground operations.



The Israeli manoeuvre both tries to deflect growing international pressure against its Gazan strategy and to put the ball in Hamas' court. Does the Gazan leadership offer a clear sign that "resistance continues" through rocket attacks, inviting Tel Aviv to resume its military campaign, or does it sit back, hoping to win the political and diplomatic battle? The possible answer is an attempted balance between a limited number of rocket launches and a visible political campaign to free Gaza from its misery and re-occupation, but this may be difficult to achieve with the leadership so dispersed and, in some cases, operating out of hiding.

Ironically, the Israeli unilateral "cease-fire" may bring regional countries to the forefront of this crisis. Hamas needs support to withstand Tel Aviv's latest moves, and this could come from the emerging bloc led by Syria, Turkey, and Iran and supported by some Gulf countries.

Meanwhile, Egypt will try to fashion an alternative multi-national response today when it hosts leaders from the Palestinian Authority, European countries, and the United Nations, and representatives from the European Commission, Russia, and the US. (The sharp-eyed will notice that Jordan is the only other Arab country present. Saudi Arabia is staying away.) Those attending walk another tightrope: how closely do they follow Tel Aviv, for example with support for the initiative to block arms to Gaza, and how much distance do they keep given internal difficulties and the lack of a post-Hamas solution?

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (17 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)

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Latest Post: Israel Government Documents Confirms No Hamas Rockets 19 June-4 November 2008
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1:15 a.m. At the very least, I'm grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we're at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship.

Good night and peace to all.

12:30 a.m. Let's be clear: the Israeli move today is not a meaningful cease-fire. It is simply a declaration that they are going to hold their military forces in place, in effect reinstituting an armed re-occupation of Gaza.

Having failed to achieve --- so far --- its goal of removing Hamas from power, Tel Aviv is now tightening its constriction of Gaza, hoping that the economic and security situation will be so untenable that the Gazan leadership eventually put their hands up. And, if Hamas react by upping the ante with rocket fire --- in effect putting their heads above the parapet --- Israel will claim legitimacy to strike even harder with its military forces.

On the surface, it's a clever strategy --- already the cyber-campaign has been launched to claim that Israel has the moral high ground since Hamas has refused to surrender and vowed to continue resistance. But in a few days, I suspect we'll see the flaws in the grand design. Israel has already lost Egypt, its Arab partner in the scheme to overthrow Hamas, and there is a good chance it is re-fashioning a bloc in which Syria, Turkey, and Iran play leading roles. There is even a chance that Tel Aviv may lose American support for the scheme to bring back the Palestinian Authority: we shall see when the Obama Administration steps up to the plate next week.

And here's the weakness in the Israeli strategy that no one will acknowledge. If Hamas fell, who would come into power? The Palestinian Authority? No way --- Gazans who have suffered close to 1300 dead are not going to welcome back a leadership they chucked out in 2006, especially when that leadership privately aided and abetted the Israeli assault.

So that means Israel has to maintain both the economic pressure and the military presence --- either in Gaza or dangling like Damocles' sword on the border --- or pull back and accept a Gazan leadership which may be less amenable to a longer-term agreement than the present one was in mid-2008. And the longer that it maintains that pressure --- given that memories of the humanitarian cost of the last few weeks will not linger but be magnified by an Iron Lead occupation --- the further its international position will erode.



11:45 p.m. A more substantive Hamas response? Rocket hits Hetzarim airbase in Beersheba and six others land elsewhere in last hour.

11:30 p.m. Hamas has already struck back at Olmert's speech, declaring that Israel's announcement "does not end the resistance". It "reserves the right to continue resisting Israel with all means" if Israel does not withdraw and lift the blockade on Gaza.

11 p.m. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making his national broadcast announcing an unilateral cease-fire, beginning at 2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time. He's declaring victory: Hamas have been dealt "a very serious blow", although they are "still not fully aware of how badly they have been damaged". Olmert is also holding up the "international agreement" to block arms to Gaza as a sign of Israel's triumph. And he is killing off any meaningful talks on Gaza, declaring that there will be no recognition of Hamas and that it has "no place in negotiations".

Immediate analysis: Olmert is blowing smoke in everyone's eyes and possibly his own. The Israeli objective was to knock Hamas out, not deliver a glancing military blow. Most of the organization's leadership is still alive, whether in Gaza or Damascus, and their base of support has probably been strengthened by the Israeli assault.

10:40 p.m. Rockets fired from Gaza have hit Ashkelon and Ashdod. Awaiting reports of any casualties.

10:20 p.m. It appears that a lot of people are scrambling to find a response to the Israeli unilateral cease-fire. Egypt, which increasingly looks like it has been wrong-footed by the manoeuvre, is loudly proclaiming that it has invited world leaders to Cairo on Sunday. The list including Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, the leaders of France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Britain, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, and representatives from the United States, Russia, and European Commission.

Reports indicate that Egypt wishes "to restore the truce between Israel and Hamas, and to lift the Israeli-led blockade on the strip". However, given Israel's clear indication today that it wishes to do neither, the more likely explanation is that Cairo is scrambling to protect its reputation in the Arab world after walking hand-in-hand with Tel Aviv and then getting pushed aside.

8 p.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has condemned "outrageous attack" by Israel on UN shelter/school. No doubt, after Minister of Defense Ehud Barak apologies for a "grave error" --- as he did yesterday over the shelling of the UN compound --- Ban will says "That's OK" and praise Israel --- as he did yesterday --- for its contribution to humanitarian corridor.

9:05 p.m. Amidst the diplomatic developments, a graphic reminder of the humanitarian issues that are far from resolution. Ahdaf Soueif in The Guardian of London today:

According to the medics here, to reports from doctors inside the Gaza Strip and to Palestinian eye-witnesses, more than 95% of the dead and injured are civilians. Many more will probably be found when the siege is lifted and the rubble is cleared. The doctors speak of a disproportionate number of head injuries - specifically of shrapnel lodged in the brain.

They also speak of the extensive burns of white phosphorus. These injuries are, as they put it, 'incompatible with life'. They are also receiving large numbers of amputees. This is because the damage done to the bone by explosive bullets is so extensive that the only way the doctors in Gaza can save lives is by amputating.

7 p.m. Confirmation coming through that Israel has declared a unilateral cease-fire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert adds that Israel retains freedom to respond to Hamas attacks.

This is now a de facto military re-occupation of Gaza.

6:40 p.m. Gaza death toll now 1230, of whom 410 are children. More than 5300 wounded.

6:25 p.m. Apparently United Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon met some politicians in Lebanon today and issued a statement. I can't be bothered to say anything further except....

Come back, Kofi Annan, we miss you.

6:05 p.m. Further re-alignment: while we await political reaction to Israel's unilateral ceasefire, its move for a force to block "arms smuggling" to Gaza has been supported by Britain, France, and Germany, all of whom have offered warships.

I know it may be too early to mention this, but does anyone recall what happened when the US and European countries sent warships to control traffic in the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s?

5:55 p.m. Want a clue to the shift of position by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak this afternoon? Reuters reports, "Egyptian police used batons to beat protesters who rallied against the Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip in central Cairo on Saturday." The demonstration was called by the Muslim Brotherhood.

And, in an interesting development, Mubarak will meet Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday. Is this to find a way to work with the new Israeli plan or a sign that they may back away from it?

5:50 p.m. The toll from the UN school/shelter shelled this morning by Israel is two dead and 25 wounded. Three daughters and a niece of a prominent Gazan doctor were killed as he was being interviewed on Israeli television, and at least 10 people were killed by a tank shell during a funeral wake in Gaza City.

Late afternoon update (5:30 p.m.): Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has blinked, at least publicly.

With Israel setting aside the Egyptian proposals for its unilateral cease-fire, Mubarak --- probably to cover his back, both with other Arab states and with his own population --- has had to put a bit of distance between himself and Tel Aviv. He has called for an immediate cease-fire and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and he gave a big clue as to the reason for Israel's decision to go it alone, declaring that Egypt would not accept an international monitoring force on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border.

1:50 p.m.To repeat for emphasis, because no one in media seems to take notice: Did Barack Obama and his advisors know of and agree to the Rice-Livni understanding for US-Israeli effort to block arms smuggling to Hamas? And did they anticipate the unilateral Israel ceasefire?

1:30 p.m. Just announced that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will make a televised address today. Get ready for that unilateral ceasefire.

12:20 p.m. Hamas makes its initial diplomatic play today: Osama Hamdan calls on regional states to stand by Gazan "resistance" and on Europe to cut ties to Israel.

12:10 p.m. An interesting twist in the latest analysis from the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. The piece by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff starts off to find, "Who is really winning the war in Gaza?". However, while wandering about looking for the victory --- maybe Hamas is split between its Damascus and Gazan branches --- they actually point to Israel's inability to define its political objective:

The most effective Israeli deterrence, [advisors to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak] said, had already been achieved by the end of last week. When Barak asked just when, in their opinion, Israel ought to pull out of Gaza, most of the participants answered: Yesterday.

This uncertainty, "What have we really achieved?", may explain the admission in the conclusion that Israel's war has been far from noble:

It is a little difficult to understand how a war, albeit necessary and justified, that includes the dropping of one-ton bombs from a height of 30,000 feet on a densely populated city can stir such national pride. The most nauseating of these new anthems explains that the IDF is the "army of the heroes of glory" and promises to give a hug to each and every one of these heroes, from the lowliest private all the way up to the chief of staff. Just one more reason to hope it all ends quickly: Then these cloying efforts will pass, too.

11:20 a.m. Of the 1199 Gazans killed to date, 410 are children, 108 are women and 118 are elderly.

11:10 a.m. Want to know the American strategy behind this morning's Israeli unilateral cease-fire? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after signing agreement with Israeli Foreign Minsiter Tzipi Livni to halt arms smuggling: "It will be clear that Mahmoud Abbas is demonstrating that he will be the Palestinian leader for all the Palestinian people."

11:05 a.m. This is the deadliest 48-hour period in the conflict, with more than 160 Gazans killed.

11 a.m. UN official Chris Gunness: several shells hit the school/shelter this morning with one "direct hit", killing two and wounding 14 as hundreds took refuge. They are keeping lists for an investigation "to see if war crimes have been committed".

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that the Israeli unilateral cease-fire leads immediately to an open-ended occupation: an official tells Agence France Press, "Israeli troops would remain inside the territory for an unspecified period."

Which in turn means that fighting will continue at some level --- a Hamas official has just told AFP that they will continue to battle occupying forces.

10:40 a.m. Gazan death toll now close to 1200.

10:30 a.m. United Nations officials are calling for investigation of this morning's shelling of a UN school/shelter which killed at least two children.

Five rockets have been fired into southern Israel, after 22 were launched on Friday.

Morning update (10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The key development of the day, the Israeli Cabinet declaration of a unilateral cease-fire,  is still awaited.Already, however, it is being reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will follow up the announcement with a visit to Egypt on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Hamas representatives are in Cairo. It will be intriguing to see how the Egyptians will explain Tel Aviv's decision or if they even try to do so. There is also an interesting 48-hour period between yesterday's summit in Qatar and the gathering of Arab countries for an economic meeting in Kuwait, where the two emerging blocs (the Egypt-led bloc against Hamas and the Syria-led bloc urging strong support of the organisation) will encounter each other for the time.

A symbolic but pointed development at the United Nations General Assembly, where the 192-member body voted 142-6 with 8 abstentions demanded "full respect" of last week's Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire. The debate was dominated by harsh denunciation of Israel and marked by arguments when Egypt and the European Union tried to push through an alternative motion that was less criticial of Tel Aviv.

And, during this diplomatic endgame --- which is far from being an endgame, only the start of a new phase of the conflict --- the military assault and civilian deaths continue. Two children were killed when Israeli artillery shells hit a United Nations school north of Gaza City. Three Gazans will killed in a tower block and two others slain in Khan Younis.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (15 January)

Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

12:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".

The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.

Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?

Good night and peace to all.



11:45 p.m. Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.

The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.

10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.

9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.

8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.

It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.

So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.

8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.

7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.

7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....

Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.

7:05 p.m. Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.

6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.

5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.

CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.

5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"

5:20 p.m. CNN's website has a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary, "Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.

4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants. UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.

3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.

3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.

Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.

2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work. Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:

Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.

But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.

2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.

2:05 p.m. We've put up a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:

In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.

1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:

""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We  need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership, the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."

1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.

Well, that's all right,then.

1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."

1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...

"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".

Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.

1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.

1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.

1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.

12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."

Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)

12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."

12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.

12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.

12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.

11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.

11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."

11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.

11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.

11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.

11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.

10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".

10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.

This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.

10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".

10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.

9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.

9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting, Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.

At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.

9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface, on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.

The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.

9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.

9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves, Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.

The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.

Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.

This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.

And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (10 January)

Latest Story: The Plan to Bring Fatah into Gaza — Livni Speaks
The Final Bush Legacy: Why the US Abstained on the Gaza Resolution
Latest Story: The Plan to Bring Fatah into Gaza?

12:10 a.m. With a lull in activity, we're going for some downtime. We half-expected a major Israeli ground attack before dawn but it appears that the Israeli Cabinet may still be undecided about pushing into Gazan cities.

Meanwhile, it's safe --- and sad --- to say that all is stalled on the political front. This has settled into a frustrating circle: none of the major players wants to appear to make a concession to Hamas (since most of those players want to get rid of the organisation) and, without a concession such as the opening of border crossings, Hamas will not negotiate for a cease-fire.



11:25 p.m. Israeli military says seven soldiers "lightly wounded" on Saturday. More than 60 targets hit in airstrikes. Suicide bomber killed in northern Gaza.

Four members of same family killed by Israeli tank shell near Beit Lahiya.

10:15 p.m. Israeli bombing raids in northeastern Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli "information" services brings out their secret weapon: "internationally-renowned singer Noa", who speaks for peace to "Palestinian brothers":

Now I see the ugly head of fanaticism, I see it large and horrid, I see its black eyes and spine-chilling smile, I see blood on its hands and I know one of its many names :Hamas.

9:55 p.m. Watching Khaled Meshaal recorded statement: while he says Israel has ruined chance of peace, I think he has set down a marker: Hamas will negotiate if there is an unconditional opening of the crossings (which Israel will not accept, of course)

9:50 p.m. Khaled Mashaal, Hamas leader in Damascus, tells Al Jazeera that Israel has failed in Gaza, achieving only "a holocaust which your leaders are trying to use for the next election".

9:45 p.m. Report of 500-1000 demonstrators in front of Israeli Embassy in London. Shoes and signs being thrown, and riot police charging the crowd.

9 p.m. Four Israeli F-16 jets violate Egyptian airspace.

8:30 p.m. Human Rights Watch tells Al Jazeera that it is "convinced" Israeli military is using white phosphorous

8:15 p.m. Information or disinformation? Israel's Channel 2 claims some Hamas fighters are wearing civilian clothes and some are impersonating IDF soldiers.

7:50 p.m. "Rafah Kid" is blogging with updates and opinion from Rafah, Gaza.

7:40 p.m. BBC says up to 50,000 at London demonstration for Gaza. Participants estimate more than 100,000.

6:20 p.m. Israeli military claims that it has killed Gaza City commander of Hamas rocket launching programme.

4:25 p.m. Diplomatic battle lines drawn between Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas. Abbas in Cairo supports "international presence in the Gaza Strip", but Hamas delegation says it was not consulted.

While Abbas covered his back with the warning, "If Israel doesn't want to accept, it will take the responsibility of perpetuating a waterfall of blood," he also set up Hamas for the fall if it does not accept the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal: "If any party does not accept it, regrettably it will be the one bearing the responsibility."

4:15 p.m. Associated Press says leaflets dropped by Israel throughout Gaza announce "a new phase in the war on terror". Israeli Army calls the leaflets "a general warning".

3:45 p.m. Diplomatic negotiations going nowhere. Egypt and the Palestinian Authority have rejected the placement in Egypt of international observers for the Gaza-Egypt border, while Hamas have rejected the placement of an international force in Gaza.

3:40 p.m. From the diary of Sami Abdel Shafi, management consultant and columnist in Gaza City:

Whatever capacity we did have to run our own affairs is now no longer there, and it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the Gaza Strip to go forward whenever the war does end.

Only then will people discover the real cost of this war, when we have to look around and ask just how we begin a rebuilding effort on such a massive scale.

3:35 p.m. UN says three-hour respite not enough to allow resumption of aid deliveries in Gaza.

3:30 p.m. Israel dropping leaflets on Gaza City residents warning them to stay indoors as it plans to "escalate" offensive.

2:15 p.m. The interview with Norwegian doctor Mads Gilbert could have a significant impact if it spreads beyond Al Jazeera, which is featuring it each hour. Gilbert is saying that the injuries he is seeing are not from "ordinary" shrapnel but from DIME (dense inert metal explosive) weapons.

Claims that the Israelis used DIME in Gaza first surfaced in 2006. The weapons have not been declared illegal, but the injuries caused show severe heat as well as percussive damage.

2 p.m. Israeli ground offensive imminent? Israeli Cabinet approves call-up of "unlimited" number of reservists

1:45 p.m. Explosions continue despite supposed three-hour "respite".

1:25 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says Israeli Defense Forces have admitted responsibility for the Jabiliya school/shelter bombing:

In briefings senior officers conducted for foreign diplomats, they admitted the shelling to which IDF forces in Jabalya were responding did not originate from the school. The IDF admitted in that briefing that the attack on the UN site was unintentional.

Gunness added that footage released by the IDF, trying to show Hamas fighters operated from the school in 2007, was filmed after the UN had temporarily abandoned the site.

1:10 p.m. Israeli military says three-hour "respite" began at 1 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that Israeli forces have surrounded all major population centers in Gaza City.

UN is now investigating the Zeitoun mass killing.

1 p.m. Gazan death toll now 815.

12:40 p.m. Israeli tank shell kills eight members of a family in Jabaliya camp.

12:10 p.m. In Cairo, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas calls Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal a "rescue initiative" which is "the only mechanism" to end Gaza war. Sharp-eyed readers will note that Abbas makes no reference to the UN cease-fire resolution passed just over 24 hours ago.

12:05 p.m. Latest Israeli airstrike just outside Gaza City as Ayman Moyheldin reports live on Al Jazeera.

12 noon: Mads Gilbert, a Norwegian doctor, says 165 dead children and more than 1200 wounded children brought to al Shifa hospital to date.

Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin says Israelis are bringing aid into warehouse but international agencies cannot and will not distribute because of security issues and shortage of fuel. No resumption of aid shipments so far. Close combat between Israeli and Hamas forces overnight, with unknown number of Hamas fighters killed and five Israeli troops wounded.

11:10 a.m. Journalists in Gaza demonstrate after the Israeli strike on a building used by media.

11 a.m. Poll of the Day: Hamas' military branch, the Al Qassam Brigades, offers visitors to their English website the choice of "Keep Calm", "Resume Rockets", "Resume Operations". Right now, it's 40 percent each for "Keep Calm" and "Resume Operations", with 20 percent for "Resume Rockets".

Morning Update: Israeli operations continue overnight, with strikes on more than 40 targets, as talks begin in Cairo on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, "expressed disappointment that the violence is continuing on the ground in disregard". A UN official has called for a war crimes investigation of Israeli actions.

More to our follow-up on the Zeitoun mass killing: The Guardian has an article --- it appears at least 30 members of the al-Samouni clan died in the Israeli shelling of a house, and up to 30 other civilians died nearby. The dead and wounded lay unattended for up to four days.

More than 800 Gazans have been killed since the start of the conflict two weeks ago. Thirteen Israelis, of whom 10 are soldiers, have been killed --- in contrast to the claims of the Al Qassam Brigades that they killed eight Israeli troops in an ambush, claims no losses on Friday.

Gaza Update (8 p.m. Israel; 6 p.m. Britain)

Urgent Update: Israeli Ground Forces Reportedly Entering Gaza

Israel diversified its attacks on Day 7 of the Gaza conflict. An Israeli airstrike on a mosque in northern Gaza killed 9 and wounded 60, and the American school in Gaza, a college building in El-Atatra, and Gaza's airport were also hit. A targeted assassination by missile killed Hamas commander Azkariah al-Jamal. Air and naval attacks were supplemented by Israeli artillery, which began shelling across the border.

Amidst speculation that Israel ground forces, massed on the border, may enter Gaza, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said "several operations" are possible if rocket fire continues.



The Palestinian death toll has reached 450. In addition to the latest casualties from attacks, wounded in hospital are dying because of a lack of medicine and equipment and overstretched medical personnel. Fifteen patients, including several children, died from wounds on Friday. The food crisis is getting worse, as Chris Gunness of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency noted:

Even when people want to get food for their hungry family, they are very aware of the dangers they are facing in going out....But, as things stand now, we have only a few days supply left.