Even if one puts the general label "pro-Supreme Leader" and "pro-Ahmadinejad" on the factions, this outcome --- at least in the numbers for the blocs --- is far from the clear victory for Ayatollah Khamenei that international media were proclaiming at the weekend.
A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.
And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.
The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.The regime's Get Out the Vote video, calling for a high turnout as a "hard slap" to Iran's enemies
See also The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?
THE VOTE
There are 290 seats in the Iranian Majlis, with members serving four-year terms. The chamber is officially led by a speaker.
There are no political parties as such; instead, blocs or factions can emerge. The Parliament is dominated by "conservatives" and "principlists", a term usually applied to the political wave since the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005.
"Reformists", who were prominent in the legislature during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), have been squeezed into a weak minority group of about 50-60 representatives. That number is likely to fall sharply in the next Majlis.
THE PROCESS
In today's first round, voters will choose names from dozens of lists of candidates. Allocated seats range from 30 for Tehran to one for Iran's smallest towns and villages, so a voter in the capital can write up to 30 names whereas the process elsewhere is far simpler.
Any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote in his/her district is elected. Those who receive less than 50% but above a minimum standard will be on the ballot for a second round of voting in about two weeks.
THE MAJOR LISTS
This should be prefaced with the note that the lists are not as important today as the individuals who may or may not emerge from them.
A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?
We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.
In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.
See also Iran Snapshot: The World's Worst Pundit Today --- Mr Tucker Carlson
Iran Snap Analysis: Nuclear Postures and "War is Coming!"
The Latest from Iran (22 February): Rafsanjani Far from Finished?
2134 GMT: A Warning to Ahmadinejad. Prominent cleric Mehdi Taeb, the brother of an important Revoutionary Guards commander, has put out a wide-ranging statement. He said oil sanctions against "impossible" and declared that the Islamic Constancy Front, vying for influence in the Parliamentary elections, has no relation with the "deviant current". That deviant current "has swallowed Satan", and the "2009 fitna (sedition) was one of their invisible actions".
Most interesting, however, was Taeb's message for the President. He said Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, is seeking his downfall, although the Iranian people are too intelligent for this. He continued that "most elites have deserted Ahmadinejad, but most people accept him with Ayatollah Khamenei if not with Rahim-Mashai".
Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 6:03