Iran Election Guide

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Entries in Islamic Constancy Front (14)

Thursday
Apr262012

The Latest from Iran (26 April): A Nuclear Opening from Tehran?

See also The Latest from Iran (25 April): The Economic Challenge Returns


1951 GMT: Criticising the Diplomats. What do the "hard-line" Mashregh News and Baztab have against the Foreign Ministry's spokesman Rahim Mehmanparast? Both chide, "Why does he have British nationality and an expensive house there? Where do his kids live?"

1944 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Al Arabiya claims that Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Tehran Friday Prayer leader and member of the Assembly of Experts, has declared in a speech in Kermanshah that the Islamic Republic "will not allow [Syrian President Bashar] Assad to be toppled".

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Thursday
Mar082012

The Latest from Iran (8 March): Let the Political In-Fighting Resume

See also Iran Document Special: The UN Report on "Violations of Fundamental Human Rights"
The Latest from Iran (7 March): "The People Are Not Happy"


2150 GMT: At the Movies. Pro-regime filmmaker Farajollah Salahshour has expressed his anger about his daughter's congratulations to Oscar-winning director Ashgar Farhadi "for depicting social problems".

2145 GMT: Hunger Strike Watch. Al Jazeera English notices the hunger strike of blogger, physician, and dissident Mehdi Khazali, now in its 60th day.

1915 GMT: A Special Day. A belated note that today is International Women's Day. Google marks the occasion:

But the distinctly Iranian presentation comes from Kanoon Nevisandegan (Writers Assocation):

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Mar072012

Iran Snap Analysis: The Election --- Still Confusing, Still Muddled

Even if one puts the general label "pro-Supreme Leader" and "pro-Ahmadinejad" on the factions, this outcome --- at least in the numbers for the blocs --- is far from the clear victory for Ayatollah Khamenei that international media were proclaiming at the weekend.

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Sunday
Mar042012

Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?

A year ago, at the height of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad --- marked by the fight to control the Ministry of Intelligence, and culminating in the President's defeat and an 11-day boycott of his duties --- we assessed that Ahmadinejad was now a "lame-duck" occupant of his office. He would not be removed, as this was cause instability and more in-fighting over the issue of who would replace him, but he would be contained and constricted by his rivals and the Supreme Leader's office.

And so it goes. The President will serve out the last year of his term, with more pressure put on those around him, such as Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. But he is unlikely to do more than put out his rhetoric and proclaim the myth of his legacy.

The bigger question, for example, is whether the Supreme Leader's office has arranged a Parliamentary outcome that guarantees it will have no problems with the Parliament as well as the President.

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Friday
Mar022012

Iran Special: A Beginner's Guide to Today's Parliamentary Elections

The regime's Get Out the Vote video, calling for a high turnout as a "hard slap" to Iran's enemies

See also The Latest from Iran (2 March): The Parliamentary Elections
Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?


THE VOTE

There are 290 seats in the Iranian Majlis, with members serving four-year terms. The chamber is officially led by a speaker. 

There are no political parties as such; instead, blocs or factions can emerge. The Parliament is dominated by "conservatives" and "principlists", a term usually applied to the political wave since the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2005.

"Reformists", who were prominent in the legislature during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), have been squeezed into a weak minority group of about 50-60 representatives. That number is likely to fall sharply in the next Majlis.

THE PROCESS

In today's first round, voters will choose names from dozens of lists of candidates. Allocated seats range from 30 for Tehran to one for Iran's smallest towns and villages, so a voter in the capital can write up to 30 names whereas the process elsewhere is far simpler.

Any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote in his/her district is elected. Those who receive less than 50% but above a minimum standard will be on the ballot for a second round of voting in about two weeks.

THE MAJOR LISTS

This should be prefaced with the note that the lists are not as important today as the individuals who may or may not emerge from them.

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Thursday
Mar012012

Iran Snap Analysis: So Who is "Winning" These Elections?

A day before Iranians vote in Parliamentary elections, who's winning?

We do not know. And we will not know for some time to come. The messy truth beyond the easy narrative of Supreme Leader v. President Ahmadinejad is that the lists of candidates do not work that way, and the vote itself will not yield a "dominant" faction.

In the meantime, there is another, far different measure of "winner" and "loser". Almost all the factions and, more importantly, the Supreme Leader have put their chips on a high turnout in the vote. If that does not materialise, then all will suffer a blow to legitimacy.

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Wednesday
Feb082012

The Latest from Iran (8 February): Seeking the Voice of the Nation

Nikahang Kowsar comments on the regime's recent detentions, interrogations, and harassment of people associated with BBC Persian

See also Iran Snapshot: The Literary Translator Who Is Now a Political Prisoner
Iran Propaganda Special: Creating "3000 Female Ninja Assassins"
Israel Analysis: Benjamin Netanyahu's Best Political Friend --- Iran
The Latest from Iran (7 February): Campaign Season


2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. News emerges that reformist candidate Dr Behruz Rashidyani, disqualified by the Guardian Council from standing in the March elections, was arrested three weeks ago.

1825 GMT: The Battle Within. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has hit back at MP Ahmad Tavakoli, a leading critic of the Government. Rahimi claimed Tavakoli has obtained his university degree illegally and "is a corrupt liar and landgrabber".

1756 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi has said that, with the Islamic Revolution, the rule of the Hidden Imam has started and Ayatollah Khamenei represents him.

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Friday
Dec302011

The Latest from Iran (30 December): We're Tough, All is Well, We're Tough, Repeat

See also Iran Feature: The Bluster That Hides Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (29 December): Ahmadinejad on the Campaign Trail


A Hovercraft in This Week's Naval Exercises2055 GMT: Sedition Watch. Mohammad Reza Khatami, a prominent reformist and the brother of the former President, has issued a public statement challenging the "false, baseless, and repetitive claims" in the report sent to Parliament, claiming a foreign-backed plot at "velvet revolution" after the 2009 Presidential election.

2045 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Lawyers for Iran’s Central Bank are preparing to file a motion in a New York federal court to release nearly $2 billion of frozen funds at Citigroup Inc.’s Citibank unit.

The assets were frozen in 2008 after a group of 1,000 victims of international terrorism sought the money as partial payment for a $2.7 billion judgement made against Tehran for its alleged role in the 1983 bombing of a Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 people.

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Thursday
Dec012011

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Spot of Bother

Nikahang Kowsar portrays the Supreme Leader's approach to international affairs

See also Iran Analysis: The Embassy Attack --- A Serious Mis-Calculation by the Regime
Iran Feature: So Who Were the "Students" in the Embassy Attack?
Iran Special Analysis: More Than a Game --- 6 Points About the Attack on the British Embassy
The Latest from Iran (30 November): After the Attack on the British Embassy


2050 GMT: The Embassy Tit-for-Tat. Many thanks to Josh Shahryar for running the LiveBlog today.

The "Occupiers of the Sedition Nest of Old Fox", formed in the aftermath of Tuesday's attack on the British Embassy, have announced they will be at the airport on Friday to welcome the Iranian diplomats expelled from the UK.

In another attempt at pressure on remaining diplomats of the "West", Tehran Provincial Governor Morteza Tamaddon said their visit to the British Embassy compound at Qolhak Garden is "suspicious" and he has reported it to the Foreign Ministry.

Iranian authorities have banned foreign media from covering any rallies in front of British diplomatic missions.

Meanwhile, Norway has reopened its embassy after a 24-hour closure for "security concerns".

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Friday
Nov252011

The Latest from Iran (25 November): Down, Down, Down

Claimed footage, posted yesterday, of a recent strike by workers in Tabriz in northwest Iran


2045 GMT: The Lesser-of-Two-Evils Watch. Kayhan editor Hossei Shariatmadari, criticising the Green Movement for saying the Iranian system should apologise to the people, has remarked, "We would rather bribe the US than the people."

2035 GMT: Elections Watch. Solat Mortazavi, the head of Iran’s Elections Headquarters, has repeated that two leading reformist organizations, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, will not be allowed to field candidates in March's Parliamentary elections.

Mortazavi told a workshop for provincial elections officials that the Supreme Leader has instructed officials to ensure that the “enemy” does not turn the elections into a challenge to the Islamic Republic. He said individual reformists are not barred from the elections so long as the Guardian Council declares them eligible.

The two reformist organisations were dissolved by court order last year. Many of their members have been arrested and given long prison sentences.

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