Syria Revealed: Inside the Obama Administration's Discussions About the Insurgency (Rogin)

President Obama on Phone with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, 31 July 2012The Obama administration very publicly signaled a shift in its approach to dealing with the Syria crisis after negotiations broke down at the United Nations in mid-July.

But the actual details of that shift are still being debated internally and the administration's rhetoric has gotten out ahead of its policy, according to officials, experts, and lawmakers.

Those details are being discussed among a select group of top officials in a closed process managed by National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. Within that group, some officials are arguing for more direct aid to the internal Syrian opposition, including the Free Syrian Army, that would help them better fight the Syrian military.

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The Latest from Iran (29 July): US Presents "Contingency Plan" for Attack to Israel

2015 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Ayatollah Khamenei has told an audience of "researchers, specialists, and innovators" that there is no insurmountable obstacle to Iran's "incessant" march of progress, “The Iranian nation is determined to reach its marked point through [strong] determination and resolve....The Iranian nation is in the middle of [events] and problems and pressures fall short of [influencing] decision, resolve and ideals of this nation.”

Then came the notable theme --- after months of denying the effect of sanctions on Iran, the Supreme Leader has declared a "resistance economy":

The economy of resistance is not a slogan, but a reality which should be realised.

One of the best manifestations and most effective components of the economy of resistance is knowledge-based companies which can make the economy of resistance more sustainable.

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Bahrain Snapshot: Obama Administration's Ineffectual Plea to Crown Prince "Please Change"

The significance of this article by Mark Landler of The New York Times is not in the immediate story of Obama Administration officials meeting the Crown Prince of Bahrain in Washington this week but in the political reality beyond the encounter.

The Administration's strategy of persuasion, alongside some mildly critical rhetoric, is unlikely to achieve much, if anything, in Bahrain. Indeed, as Landler indicates below, the Crown Prince's visit may be a political sideshow --- in mid-March, his approach of engagement of some elements of the opposition to discuss reform was quashed by other members of the ruling family, and he has struggled to regain influence since then.

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Syria, Libya, Palestine (and Beyond) LiveBlog: While Obama Speaks....

2100 GMT: Claimed video of a demonstration in Homs tonight, "The people want to topple the regime":

2040 GMT: A day after balking at an agreement to transfer power, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said --- through a spokesman --- that he will sign the arrangement.

Spokesman Ahmed al-Sufi said Saleh will accept Sunday during the celebration of Yemen National Day at the Presidential Palace in Sanaa. Al-Sufi said Abdul-Latif al-Zayyani, the head of the Gulf Co-operation Council, would return to Yemen for the event.

The GCC, which brokered the agreement, said in a statement that its foreign ministers would meet in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday and al-Zayyani would attend.

The Yemeni opposition dismissed Saleh’s promise to sign.

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Middle East: Obama Plans a Speech, But Little Prospect of Substance (Landler/Cooper)

Mr. Obama had considered laying out American parameters for a peace deal [between Israel and Palestine], several officials said — a move that [Secretary of State] Clinton favored, but one that would have put him at odds with his national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, and his top Middle East adviser, Dennis Ross.

But the unity accord between Hamas and Fatah, the party of President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, effectively killed the plans to try to push through an American proposal, one administration official said. “It’s hard to imagine how we do that when Hamas hasn’t agreed” to recognize Israel’s right to exist and to forswear violence against Israel, the official said.

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Syria, Yemen, Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Marching on the Streets

2110 GMT: Reuters now report that 35 anti-regime protesters in Taiz in Yemen were wounded today when plainclothes gunmen fired into the crowd (see 1220 GMT).

2100 GMT: Claimed footage of protesters in the Syrian town of Daraa shouting slogans against the Assad regime as Major General Mohammed Aalgirat leaves a building:

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Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Defiances

1915 GMT: More confusion over the situation of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak....

Egyptian State TV is reporting that Mubarak suffered a heart attack during questioning over corruption charges. However, the prosecutor's office has denied that Mubarak was interviewed today.

Mubarak was hospitalized at Sharm el-Sheikh International Hospital, state media reported.

1855 GMT: Bahraini officials are claiming that three shotguns and Molotov cocktails were found in a mosque in Malikiya today.

1850 GMT: Claimed footage of an anti-regime protest in Syria today:

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The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Regime's Day Came and It Went

2240 GMT: Claimed video of "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) from the rooftops tonight:

2225 GMT: 25 Bahman. An indication in Fars that the Minister of Interior will reject the request by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi for a permit for Monday's rally --- Mehdi Alikhani-Sadr, deputy director of the Interior Ministry's political bureau, said, "These people are fully aware of the illegality of their demand and they know they will not receive a permit for staging a riot."

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Afghanistan Analysis: US Military Asserting Dominance over White House Again?

Last week, the White House announced that National Security Advisor James Jones would be replaced later this month by the current deputy advisor, Tom Donilon.

Jones, a retired Marine General, had been wounded in a number of bureaucratic encounters over 20 months. Notable amongst these was his attempt to limit the military's demands for more and more US troops in Afghanistan. It was Jones, for example, who carried the message to Kabul in summer 2009 that the President would ask, "WTF?", if his commanders asked for another escalation, only months after getting additional forces. Yet by December, that same President was agreeing to another injection of 30,000 soldiers.

Well before that incident, the military had set out its tactics of briefing the press against White House attempts to check a bolstered intervention. So it was intriguing to see what happened 72 hours after Donilon, who is also seen by many as a sceptic of the ramped-up military effort, was named as Jones' successor.

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China This Week: Sino-US Talks; No More Iran Sanctions; Sea Tension with Japan; Ties with Myanmar

High-level talks strengthen Sino-US ties: Lawrence Summers, the head of President Barack Obama's National Economic Council, and Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon visited China from 5 to 8 September, seeking to iron out touchy issues in bilateral relations.

President Hu Jintao called said during a meeting on Wednesday, "Further comprehensive development of Sino-US relations is more important than ever before, as the global economic recovery is facing a variety of unstable and uncertain factors. China and the US should view the bilateral relationship from a global and strategic perspective."

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