Iran Special: Decoding Ahmadinejad --- Did He Just Declare the "Final Confrontation" Within the Establishment?

Over the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of an extraordinary speech by President Ahmadinejad to a group of his backers, the Supporters of Islamic Revolution Dialogue, in Tehran.

Our initial reaction was "Did he really say that?" And that as the reports built in their detail, we began to consider, "If he did say that, what does it mean for the conflict inside the Iranian system?"

For --- if the reports are true --- the President's speech was no less than a proclamation of all-out political conflict with his rivals, including a possible showdown with some in the camp of the Supreme Leader. That would explain why "mainstream" Iranian outlets only published parts of the statement, leaving out the most provocative challenges.

We are still cautious. Did the pro-Ahmadinejad website, <em>Dolat-e Ma</em>, which has published the transcript of the speech, get it right through its reporter on the scene? Is there exaggeration for effect, perhaps to scare Ahmadinejad's opponents?

Then again, no one from the President's office or amongst his media backers has denied the remarks. So we assess the significance of Ahmadinejad's declaration of a "final confrontation"...

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Iran Analysis: Sometimes A Plot is Just A Plot (Dreyfuss)

Manssor ArbabsiarAs strange as it may seem, it's entirely possible that the witting participants in a plan that, had it taken place, could have triggered an all-out U.S. attack on Iran's military facilities and nuclear research installations didn't rank very high. That, in part, might explain the staggeringly inept nature of the plot, which involved easily traced transfers of large sums of money to unvetted bank accounts, clumsily disguised, barely coded conversations over open phone lines, and the plotters' reliance on a bungling, pot-smoking Iranian-American businessman with a criminal record. Still, when drugs, guns, and money are involved, participants are not usually members of Mensa. In particular, there have been media reports that Shahlai, Arbabsiar's cousin, was something of a drug-running gangster himself, which could explain why he gravitated to a plan intended to contract the attack on al-Jubeir with Los Zetas, a vastly powerful Mexican mafia organization.

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The Latest from Iran (23 September): After the Ahmadinejad Road Show

See also Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad 1, Interviewers 0 (and Why It Matters)

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2038 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that imports of rice rose 27%, compared to last year, between March and August.

2035 GMT: Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam, the head of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has said that the file of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud, is still under scrutiny by the judiciary.

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Iran Feature: A Guide to The Political Battle Within Tehran's Establishment (Bakhash)

In the conservative lexicon, Ahmadinejad and his inner circle have joined the reformists as a lethal threat to conservative values.

In their drive for unity, almost all the conservative politicians now label themselves osulgara, or "principlists." Prodded by leading conservatives, such as Assembly of Experts President Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi-Kani, principlists from several conservative organizations have created a council of 15 --- also known as the council of the 7 plus 8 --- to draw up a common platform and list of candidates for parliament.

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Iran Snapshot: "Playing With Numbers" --- Claims and Realities on the Economy (Tehran Correspondent)

Last month, as a flood of exuberant economic forecasts poured on Iran on the back of an unusually positive International Monetary Fund press release, one on-the-ground observer morosely invoked an old Iranian proverb: "My cheeks look rosy because I slap them" (Bah seeli sourat ra sorkh negah dashtan). To the members of Tehran's business and financial community, it appears the Iranian government has adhered to this saying, perking up its numbers to present the world with a peachy picture of its less-than-stellar economic performance.

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Iran Interview: Repression, Protest, and the Women's Movement (Abbasgholizadeh)

Since Iran's 2009 presidential election, the women's movement has focused on the status of female political prisoners and the daily government crackdowns. Women's rights activists have broadened their human rights efforts. They are pursuing their cases not just in Iranian courts, but also in the international arena in their attempt to confront state violence with non-violence.

These activists simultaneously continue to battle gender inequalities, which are getting worse. Inequalities still exist in family laws favoring men, gender segregation in universities, and the exclusion of women from educational opportunities.

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Iran Feature: The Danger of the Economic Slump (Harris)

Iran's biggest economic problem is the growing production slump at its factories and workshops. For both workers and the business elite, Iran's domestic industrial troubles are far more pressing--and generating far more public anxiety --- than international sanctions.

The biggest danger for Iran in 2011 is the combination of higher unemployment and inflation produced by government inaction, unintended consequences of subsidy reform, and dwindling foreign capital caused by banking sanctions.

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Iran Transcript: President Ahmadinejad's TV Interview

A transcript of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's live interview on Sunday night on the State broadcaster IRIB Channel 2:

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What do you think about the execution of the laws in the past five months?

My assessment is very positive. The people of Iran have accomplished something here. Everyone thought that that the economic situation would not improve. But we have accomplished this and we have proud results to show. I will describe some of them to you.

One of the main things was to cut down the costs. One of the major issues was the cost of bread. I can tell you that we have cut down the costs to about 30 percent. In a short time, we have managed to do this. I won't say that the quality of bread everywhere is better than before, but it will be.

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Iran Feature: The Limbo of the Refugee Journalists (Arjomand)

Nima biked to Turkey. He'd been in and out of the Iranian prison system on political charges for the past decade. He was sure he was on the no-fly list and the police were monitoring buses and trains leaving the capital, so he rode his bicycle more than 500 miles from Tehran to Tabriz in eastern Iran. From there, he got on a train to Van on the Turkish side of the border, bribing his way through customs with what money he'd been able to bring with him. From Van he biked almost 900 miles to Ankara to register for refugee status with the United Nations.

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Iran Special: Why the "Green Zone" in Tehran is Important Again

At the end of the day it will be the Iranians on the street who will force the hands of the politicians. It will be a rising opposition movement on the ground that will become the catalyst for change in the political system.

So far, observations about political infighting have been inconclusive, though perhaps this will change soon. Right now, the energy is pouring out of the emails, the Tweets, the blog posts. The opposition is fired up; the Green Zone is refusing to go gently into that good night. 

Like a lime being squeezed, the Green Movement is slipping its bonds. The iron fist of the regime tries to tighten its grip, but the Green Zone expands and slips through its fingers. 

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