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Friday
Sep232011

The Latest from Iran (23 September): After the Ahmadinejad Road Show

See also Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad 1, Interviewers 0 (and Why It Matters)


2038 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that imports of rice rose 27%, compared to last year, between March and August.

2035 GMT: Mohammad Ebrahim Nekounam, the head of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has said that the file of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud, is still under scrutiny by the judiciary.

2025 GMT: The Detained Filmmakers. Peyke Iran posts a long report on the condemnations of six filmmakers by State broadcaster IRIB, paving the way for their arrests for allegedly working with BBC Persian.

Most Iranian media continues to put forth the charge, which BBC Persian has denied, saying that it only bought the rights to documentaries made by the six detainees. However, the hard-line website Shafaf has broken ranks, suggesting that the attacks on the BBC are counter-productive.

1955 GMT: Corruption Watch. A website on the $2.6 billion bank fraud has been launched for people to provide information about ongoing embezzlements.

1950 GMT: Complaint of the Day. Mohsen Habibi, the head of State broadcaster IRIB's Channel 2 has said, that 4689 satellite TV channels work against the Islamic Republic and "our programmes cannot compete with them".

1940 GMT: The US Hikers. And now for something different in the story of the freeing of US nationals Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer after 26 months in detention....

Actor Sean Penn flew to Venezuela to ask President Hugo Chavez to intervene with President Ahmadinejad on behalf of the two Americans, arrested in July 2009 on the Iran-Iraq border.

Venezuela's Deputy Foreign Minister told Reuters on Thursday that Chavez brought up the case with his Iranian ally Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after being alerted by friends in U.S. "intellectual circles". A source told Reuters:

The American 'intellectual' who took up the case with him was Sean Penn. Penn was very committed to the case....He flew to Caracas several months ago to raise it with Chavez and he kept on it."

Penn's spokeswoman confirmed the account.

The source said the State Department had been aware of Chavez's involvement in the attempts to free the hikers and did not try to block it.

1350 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayer Summary. A bit of anti-climax at Friday Prayers today --- Ayatollah Kazem Seddiqi, taking his lead from last weekend's Islamic Awakening conference in Tehran, told the faithful that the Awakening was a road map for uprising and revolution in the Middle East and North Africa.

Hmm.... There may have been one or two international developments, from New York to Bahrain, since then.

Anyway, Seddiqi tried to be more up-to-date with his claim that the US is responsible for the murder of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani. And he had a few words about the $2.6 billion bank fraud in Iran, expressing his confidence that the authorities were dealing with it decisively.

1345 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hadi Ahmadi, an economics reporter for the Iranian Students News Agency, has reportedly been detained. The reason is unclear, although Ahmadi was summoned for interrogation a day before his arrest.

He was also summoned a day before his arrest for interrogations. He has called his family but the reason fro his arrest is unclear. He has been working for ISNA since 2006.

1035 GMT: More Signals. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who met European counterparts and the European Union's foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton, presses the campaign for discussions: "Iran and the EU can complement each other and hold dialogues and negotiations on different issues." Salehi highlighted the recent letter of Saeed Jalili, Iran's nuclear negotiator, to Ashton declaring Tehran's readiness for talks with the 5+1 Powers (Britain, China, France, Russia, the US, Germany).

0915 GMT: Ahmadinejad's US Gambit. A valuable snippet in the President's interview with the Associated Press:

[Ahmadinejad] complained that President Barack Obama never made good on a pledge to try to open a dialogue with Iran, and said he still hopes for a face-to-face meeting.

"I don't believe that this is a chance that has been completely lost," Ahmadinejad said.

Forget the ruse about a direct Obama-Ahmadinejad meeting, which will never happen --- this was a call by the Iranian President for discussions at another level. The message was also placed in this exchange:

In the case of Robert Levinson, a retired FBI agent missing nearly five years in Iran, Ahmadinejad said he does not know where Levinson is. But he referred to unspecified contacts between the U.S. and Iran over the case.

"I think there was good collaboration between the intelligence apparatus in both countries," Ahmadinejad said. "I think we have reached concrete results - good results - and it would be good if such collaboration continues."

0855 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Road Show. David Remnick of The New Yorker writes of President Ahmadinejad's press appearance on Thursday, after his UN speech, at the Warwick Hotel in New York. It's an entertaining vignette, but it only reinforces the message in our analysis this morning of the President leading journalists on a merry dance:

In a way, the only answer of his that seemed untricky and heartfelt was his hideous denunciation of homosexuals. He no longer exactly denied the existence of gay men and women in Iran, as he once had, but now, he said, “In Iran, homosexuality is looked down upon as an ugly deed. Perhaps some engage in such activities….but this is one of the ugliest behaviors in our society and it is against divine will."

The ritual of “conversation” finally came to a weary end.

One other (inadvertent) contribution: Remnick's story exposes how journalists are using the President's show for self-promotion, at least in the case of one broadcaster. His recitation of Ahmadinejad's view on homosexuality is quite similar to that given by CNN's Wolf Blitzer (see the analysis). The difference is that Blitzer implies he got this revelation in an hour alone with the President, "My Chance to Chat with Iranian Pres. Ahmadinejad", rather than as a member in the audience of journalists.

0845 GMT: The US Hikers. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post writes of the 26 months of diplomacy to free US national Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer before they were released on bail on Wednesday.

Characters include the Swiss Ambassador in Tehran, Livia Leu Agosti, and the Iraqi President, Jalal Talabani, but this is the striking passage:

Mohammed Javad Larijani [head of the human rights section of Iran's judiciary]...traveled to New York last year as part of efforts to resolve the hikers’ case. Larijani, an alumnus of the University of California at Berkeley with two high-ranking brothers --- one heads the Iranian Parliament and the other is chief justice [head of judiciary] ---- played a key role in convincing Iranian leaders that it was in their interest to release Bauer and Fattal, even though the two were suspected of espionage and were sentenced last month to eight years in prison.

0645 GMT: We sweep up this morning after the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad road show at the United Nations, posting an analysis both of the UN speech and of the President's series of interviews, "Ahmadinejad 1, Journalists 0 (and Why It Matters)".

A follow-up to the point in that analysis, "There is the further, equally important significance of interpreting [Ahmadinejad's answers in the context of further developments, abroad and --- more importantly --- inside Iran.

Tehran Bureau has posted a potentially valuable article, "The Release of the US Hikers: Was It a Political Signal". It consists of nine quotes from "Iranian analysts in both Iran and the United States" on Wednesday's release on $500,000 bail each of US citizens Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, complementing our own interpretation that the event was both 1) a marker for the internal battle between President Ahmadinejad and rivals in Tehran and 2) part of Ahmadinejad's gambit for renewed discussions with US officials as well as a curtain-raiser for his tour of New York. For example, one remark is ""I do not believe the issue has to do with a diplomatic opening. Khamenei does not trust Ahmadinejad to be the representative of Iran and negotiate."

The problem is that Tehran Bureau does not give any supporting information for the quotes, such as whether a claim claims from an academic, a journalist, an activist, or another observer and whether that observer is inside or outside Iran. So we are still searching for clues as to whether, away from the spotlight, Ahmadinejad's last ten days signal important changes both in Iranian politics and in US-Iran relations.

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