The Latest from Iran (24 October): How To Instantly Become an Iranian Citizen

See also Iran Video Interview: Ahmadinejad Puts Out His Standard Lines to CNN's Zakaria
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Qaddafi Visits the Supreme Leader

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1835 GMT: No-Irony-at-All Elections Watch. A leading member of the Islamic Constancy Front, Morteza Agha Tehrani, has urged authorities to safeguard the coming elections and ensure that “votes are not stolen and there is no cheating".

The Constancy Front was established earlier this year by supporters of President Ahmadinejad and his allies. It has been at odds with other conservative factions who have sought a unified front for next March's Parliamentary vote.

In a meeting on Saturday in Qom, Agha Tehrani said: “If you truly want competent people to be elected to office, do not steal or buy votes and do not cheat.”

1605 GMT: CyberCrime. Minister of Communications and Technology Reza Taghipour has declared that the use of VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) and proxies is a “crime": “Now VPNs have been cut off in the country because their use is a legal violation.”

With a VPN, Internet users can get access to internet providers outside Iran by using ISPs within the country. Iranians have been using the VPNs and proxies to circumvent strict censorship by the Islamic Republic of foreign and domestic websites.

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The Latest from Iran (17 October): Plots, Rumours, and A Flying Cabbage

See also Iran Document: 1st Report of The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights
Iran Audio Feature: How Ahmadinejad's Advisor Stumbled Into An Admission of The Battle Within

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1940 GMT: The Plot. President Ahmadinejad has used an interview with Al Jazeera English tonight to deny any Iranian involvement in the plan to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US: "Terror is for people... who don't have any logic. People of Iran are pro-logic."

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has tried a different approach, declaring that the main suspect in the US, Manssor Arbabsiar, is "addicted to opium and drunken and mentally not well balanced".

1640 GMT: The Plot. Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi has insisted that Iran is the most secure and stable country in the world today and that US accusations of Tehran's attempt to kill the Saudi Ambassador in Washington are "an intelligence disgrace".

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Iran Analysis: Sometimes A Plot is a Drug Deal Gone Wrong (Porter)

Sketch of Manssor Arbabsiar at Court HearingIn the [US] complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was "interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia". 

Among the "other things" was almost certainly a deal on heroin controlled by officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Bloomberg reporters, citing a "federal law enforcement official", wrote that Arbabsiar told the DEA informant he represented Iranians who "controlled drug smuggling and could provide tons of opium".

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Iran Analysis: Sometimes A Plot is Just A Plot (Dreyfuss)

Manssor ArbabsiarAs strange as it may seem, it's entirely possible that the witting participants in a plan that, had it taken place, could have triggered an all-out U.S. attack on Iran's military facilities and nuclear research installations didn't rank very high. That, in part, might explain the staggeringly inept nature of the plot, which involved easily traced transfers of large sums of money to unvetted bank accounts, clumsily disguised, barely coded conversations over open phone lines, and the plotters' reliance on a bungling, pot-smoking Iranian-American businessman with a criminal record. Still, when drugs, guns, and money are involved, participants are not usually members of Mensa. In particular, there have been media reports that Shahlai, Arbabsiar's cousin, was something of a drug-running gangster himself, which could explain why he gravitated to a plan intended to contract the attack on al-Jubeir with Los Zetas, a vastly powerful Mexican mafia organization.

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The Latest from Iran (14 October): The Plot and Beyond

See also Iran 6-Point Analysis: Obama and the Regime Walk Tightropes Over the Plot

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Manssor Arbabsiar1755 GMT: Parliament Watch. A sharp extract from the resignation letter of MP Ali Motahari, who is leaving Parliament because of its failure to interrogate the President, "The Supreme Leader's interference in Majlis matters is not advisable."

1748 GMT: Bank Fraud Watch. Mehr names three more companies, all in Qazvin Province, in the $2.6 billion bank fraud: Setaregan Amir Mansour, Tejarat Gostar, and Amir Mansour Iranian.

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Iran 6-Point Analysis: Obama and the Regime Walk Tightropes Over the Plot

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There is an important conclusion which goes far beyond any assessment of the Plot. With this response, the US has thrown back the attempt by President Ahmadinejad to renew discussions on Iran's nuclear programme, expressed in a series of public signals in New York last month. 

For now, the Americans will be using stick, stick, and more stick not only over the nuclear issue --- which is no longer the leading symbol for US-Iran relations --- but over co-operation rather than political conflict in the region and beyond. If there is going to be any carrot of direct talks with Tehran, it will only follow the region's self-humbling with an admission of guilt for The Plot.

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The Latest from Iran (13 October): Bank Fraud, Supreme Leader, Assassination Plot

See also Iran Terror Special: What We Know, What We Don't Know
Iran Opinion: The Plot --- What the US Got Wrong
The Latest from Iran (12 October): A Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador?

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2112 GMT: The AP has posted the video of US President Barack Obama answering a question about whether he though that the Supreme Leader knew of the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador, and whether he believed this was an act of war. James Miller notes that Obama stops far short of that accusation, instead saying that the Iranian government needs to be responsible for the actions of its members. The video starts mid-answer, but the most important details are there:

1715 GMT: The Plot. President Obama has told reporters that the alleged plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US is "not just a dangerous escalation, this is part of a pattern of dangerous and reckless behavior by the Iranian government". He said it was a sign of how Iran has "been outside of accepted norms of international behavior for far too long" and asserted the US will work with international partners and take steps to ensure that Iran "pays a price".

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Iran Opinion: The Plot --- What the US Got Wrong

In the past 24 hours, there have been a few new facts about the alleged Iran plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US and many more opinions and conjectures. The baseline, however, is still the way the US Government presented its case.

Given the fact that the US has only one Iranian-American, Mansoor Arbabsiar, in custody --- about whom no one really knows much --- and the courts have yet to decide whether he is guilty or not, it really is a stretch to blame the highest echelons of the Iranian regime for orchestrating the attack. Yet this is precisely what Washington did, not in the formal complaint against Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, his supposed Revolutionary Guards handler, but in the declaration of indictments against three senior Revolutionary Guards officers, including the head of the force, for orchestrating the attack.

This is not a question of capability --- the regime has shown in the past that it is capable of violence --- but of complicity. Without presenting further evidence, the US Government cannot expect its narrative of confirmed guilt to take hold.

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The Latest from Iran (12 October): A Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador?

See also Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?
Iran Feature: 10 Questions About the "Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: The Formal Complaint over "Plot to Kill Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: US Account of the "Plot to Murder the Saudi Ambassador to Washington"

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Attorney General Eric Holder and Director of FBI Robert Mueller set out the allegations of the Iran-backed plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US

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1810 GMT: Space Watch. Sad news from Iran --- the monkey died.

Last week, we reported that Iran had indefinitely postponed plans to send a live monkey into space, without giving any reasons. Hamid Fazeli, head of Iran's Space Organisation, said, "One cannot give a set date for this project and as soon as our nation's scientists announce the readiness, it will be announced."

The rest of the story came out today. Deputy Science Minister Mohammad Mehdinejad-Nouri said, "The Kavoshgar-5 rocket carrying a capsule with a live animal was launched during Shahrivar (23 August to 22 September). However, the launch was not publicised as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished.

Mehdinejad-Nouri insisted that the launch of a live animal into space was "strategic, and a priority".

1800 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's speech in Kermanshah today....

The Supreme Leader gave this advice to the Iranian people for Parliamentary elections: "Vote for those who are not connected to the centres of power and wealth".

A video extract of the Supreme Leader's address:

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Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?

Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....

According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.

All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.

The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.

The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.

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